Final Mock Draft
by John Sickels on Jun 4, 2010 10:00 AM EDT
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Here is my final mock draft. Aside from the first three picks (and even the exact order of picks 2 and 3 is uncertain), no one seems to know exactly what is going to happen on Monday. Sources I've contacted are either tight-lipped about their plans, very vague, or in the "we don't know yet either" category.
Over the weekend, clubs will their final efforts to assess signability, another factor which will move players up and down boards. Basically everything is in flux and surprises should be expected, even in the first half of the round.
Enjoy this list, but take it seriously only at your own peril.
1) Nationals: Bryce Harper, C, College of Southern Nevada: This is the only pick in the entire draft that is set in stone.
2) Pirates: Manny Machado, SS, Brito Private HS, Miami, Florida: Based on current info, it will either be Machado or Taillon in this slot but no one seems to know which one. Either way Pirates fans should be pleased.
3) Orioles: Jameson Taillon, RHP, The Woodlands HS, Texas: Most expect the Orioles to pick whoever the Pirates pass up. I don't expect a pre-arranged surprise like Hobgood last year, but you never know.
4) Royals: Drew Pomeranz, LHP, University of Mississippi: Royals are tight-lipped, but Pomeranz would provide an advanced arm to a pitching-oriented farm system.
5) Indians: Chris Sale,LHP, Florida Gulf Coast University: This is one projected pick that's been consistent.
6) Diamondbacks: Deck McGuire, RHP, Georgia Tech: This is where the chaos begins. Most people think the Dbacks will pick a college guy, but do they go with an arm or a bat? There is no clear separation between the available players. McGuire or Wimmers seem logical, but Cox and Grandal also seem like possibilities. I will go with McGuire. Arizona drafted a lot of hitting last year and could use some arms.
7) Mets: Christian Colon, SS, Cal State Fullerton: The Mets usually don't take huge gambles in the draft, and Colon is one of the safer picks available.
8) Astros: Zach Cox, 3B, University of Arkansas: Another pick in flux according to everything I have heard, but most scouts love Cox and he shouldn't fall much farther than this.
9) Padres: Michael Choice, OF, University of Texas-Arlington: His tools are underrated, and while there are doubts about exactly how the bat will play, the Padres have a recent history of drafting players with good plate discipline from the college ranks.
10) Athletics: Karsten Whitson, RHP, Chipley HS, Florida: I still love his combination of stuff and command, and he seems a logical pick here, striking me as a high school arm with the talents to interest Oakland.
11) Blue Jays: Alex Wimmers, RHP, Ohio State University: Another hard-to-pin down team, there are completely contradictory rumors about what direction the Jays will go and at this point it is anyone's guess. I suspect that with multiple picks they will have to pay attention to signability and affordability more than they may say publically. Wimmers has a fine combination of stuff and command and won't need much minor league time.
12) Reds: Yamani Grandal, C, University of Miami: With home-state Wimmers off the board, Grandal seems a logical choice to me.
13) White Sox: Brett Eibner, RHP-OF, University of Arkansas: Chicago is usually college-oriented in the early rounds, but they also love tools, athleticism, and arm strength. Eibner has those in droves. His two-way status is also intriguing for a team willing to consider conversions.
14) Brewers: Asher Wojciechowski, RHP, The Citadel: Milwaukee needs power arms, and they could use a guy who projects to reach the majors fairly quickly. Wojciechowski fits the bill.
15) Rangers: Brandon Workman, RHP, University of Texas: This pick is unprotected, so a college guy with a home-state connection seems like a good choice to me, especially one whose stock has risen a bit.
16) Cubs: Justin O'Conner, C-SS, Cowan HS, Muncie, Indiana: Late buzz has O'Conner's stock rising quickly. His athleticism seems like it should appeal to the Cubs.
17) Rays: Stetson Allie, RHP, St. Edward HS, Olmstead Falls, Ohio: Would fit Tampa's pitching development program perfectly.
18) Angels: Dylan Covey, RHP, Maranatha HS, California: His stock has dropped after a rough late season patch, but he fits in with previous Angels drafting patterns and is a home-state kid.
19) Astros: Josh Sale, OF, Bishop Blanchet HS, Seattle, Washington: Would pair nicely with Cox to provide the core of a future Houston lineup.
20) Red Sox: Matt Harvey, RHP, University of North Carolina: The Red Sox have been linked with numerous players, including Anthony Ranaudo, Austin Wilson, Kaleb Cowart, and Nick Castellanos. But Harvey's arm is outstanding, he's been much better than Ranaudo this year, and he went to high school in Connecticut. The Red Sox also drafted an erratic Tar Heel with a great arm before (Daniel Bard) with good results.
21) Twins: Seth Blair, RHP, Arizona State University: The Twins often march to their own drummer, and this pick is hard to nail down even on speculation. Persistent rumors link the Twins with college pitching. Blair fits the Minnesota profile.
22) Rangers: Gary Brown, OF, Cal State Fullerton: A somewhat budget-oriented pick for the cash-strapped Rangers, but the Rangers weren't afraid of a similar toolsy player with questionable plate discipline back in 2007 (Julio Borbon).
23) Marlins: Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Barstow HS, California: A raw projectable arm that seems a logical fit with the tool-oriented Marlins.
24) Giants: Bryce Brentz, OF, Middle Tennessee State University: The Giants need power but also like tools; Brentz would certainly be a logical pick here.
25) Cardinals: Kolbrin Vitek, INF-OF, Ball State University: Someone always falls, and while Vitek has been mentioned as a top ten candidate, in this version of the multiverse he's the one who slips.
26) Rockies: Kevin Gausman, RHP, Grandview HS, Aurora, Colorado: His stock dropped earlier this year but I still see him as someone very likely to interest his homestate team.
27) Phillies: Jesse Biddle, LHP, Germantown Friends HS, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania: If anyone can get Biddle to forgo the University of Oregon, it would be the Phillies. His ceiling is quite high, he's local, and he fits their development philosophy well.
28) Dodgers: Peter Tago, RHP, Dana Hills HS, Laguna Beach, California: Tago is making a late run up draft boards and has the kind of high school pitcher package that could intrigue the Dodgers.
29) Angels: Kyle Parker, OF, Clemson: Toolsy and has power, and you can spread his bonus around over five years since he's a football guy too. Makes sense for a team with multiple picks.
30) Angels: A.J. Cole, RHP, Oviedo HS, Florida: I like Cole a lot, and while he won't be cheap to sign, adding both him and Covey to the system would be a huge coup.
31) Rays: Taijuan Walker, RHP, Yucaipia HS, California: This pick is unprotected and a college guy would fit here, but Walker is superprojectable which should interest the Rays. He's also raw, lacks leverage with no college option, and could be amenable to a pre-draft deal for slot money.
32) Yankees: Nick Castellanos, 3B, Archbishop McCarthy HS, Davie, Florida: His bat would warrant going about 10 slots higher, but he has a high price tag that could scare off other teams. The Yankees seem like a logical fit.
Falling out of the first round: Kaleb Cowart and Austin Wilson due to signability, Anthony Ranaudo due to injury concerns.
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If the Brewers pass on
Cole, Allie, Covey and O’Conner to take the one pitch wonder Wojciehowski…
They need to fire their entire scouting staff along with Doug Melvin. He’s the last thing they need. They need arms for sure, and power arms at that, but they need projectible, future aces, not bullpen arms like this guy.
Ugh. No wonder living in Milwaukee, being a baseball fan, and knowing what I’m talking about, is stressful at draft time.
+1
In Klaw’s last mock he has Deck making it down to us…we’ll see, but I agree with your stance. Hopefully this is the last draft ran by Melvin, too.
Two pitch wonder according to every report I've read
Legit FB at 93-95, velo held through starts, and a sharp slider that gets great reviews. Which one don’t you like?
by blackoutyears on Jun 4, 2010 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Even so
He’s still just a bullpen arm with only a rudimentary change up. This will be an awful pick for the Brewers if this is who they take, not even taking into consideration the fact that the Brewers develop pitching poorly.
Well
not sure why you think he’s just a bullpen arm, but having two pitches, rather than one, does lend itself to starting. And even as a reliever scouts have him tabbed as a set-up man/closer. Hopefully he ends up with another team.
by blackoutyears on Jun 4, 2010 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree that
With that FB velocity he is primed for set up/closer role.
My own personal philosophy is not to draft relief pitchers, but rather convert them from starting pitchers. Granted the guy is a SP now, but without a changeup or 3rd pitch, he wont/cant survive MLB as a starting pitcher.
The Brewers need a pitcher with high upside to be at the top of the rotation. They currently have one guy in their system that maybe fits that role apart from Yovannig Gallardo (Jake Odirizzi). The have tons of relievers and bottom of the rotation type guys in their organization, they need front line starters, and from the draft, projectible, high impact arms.
they have a total
dearth of talent as far as top-of-the-rotation arms, certainly…
I guess Sheeter did survive having 2 pitches, pretty well for a stretch. But you are right that it typically profiles for the pen, and we have plenty of that.
Well
You can say that about a lot of guys this year, right? How many of the starters, even the college ones, have polished three-pitch arsenals? Wimmers? McGuire? I’d take Wojcie over McGuire personally, and he’s not far behind Wimmers for me. Sale gets dinged on his breaking ball. Pommy gets dinged for command of his change 9and command in general), though he does throw it for strikes.
Like I said, hopefully for you someone else takes Wojcie for your sake (I’d be happy if the Reds got him or Wimmers), but you might be pleasantly surprised.
by blackoutyears on Jun 5, 2010 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Why do you live in Milwaukee?
You hate it and pretty much everything about it. As far as you knowing what you’re talking about, you see a huge number of pitchers as bullpen arms and don’t seem very good at predicting future results.
???
Ive been a member of this board for about a year or so, so I dont really know where you make the claim about predicting future results.
If a guy has 2 pitches, he more likely than not is going to be a bullpen arm.
Care to back up your claims with proof?
Another thing that is needed for starting is command.
Wojchiehowski has it. Cole, Allie? Not quite as much. Asher has the control to be able to add another pitch under pro coaching, which is easier than teaching a high school pitcher how to repeat his delivery and spot all his pitches.
You guys win. You can keep your little marked-out piece of internet territory. Spend your days communicating via keyboard with people too ugly for the real world and too nerdy for anyone to care, anyway. Your piece of land is here. Do the rest of civilization a favor and stay within its limits. You bore me. Have fun with your nightly sobs and screams into your pillow over your inability to attract a good mate, Radiohead. ~The Hooligan
by Daniel Berlyn on Jun 4, 2010 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions
You may be right about what is harder to do
But there isnt any evidence that a guy like Cole is going to have problems with his delivery or his command. Cole already has 3 pitches, and his FB is just as good as AW’s. The Brewers have a horrible track record of developing pitching, but this AW pick is just a clone of the Arnett/Heckathorn picks from last year.
Last year I stated a firm belief that both of them would wind up in the bullpen eventually, and I feel the same about this guy. IMO, he profiles as a great closer. Why waste a top draft pick on a guy who maybe gives you one or two extra wins at their peak, when you can get a starter who can give you 4 or 5 extra wins?
You don't know what he'll end up as.
Just like you don’t know what the high school pitchers will end up as. AW has a better chance of helping the Brewers and will cost less, giving them a better chance to get talent later. Not saying it’s what I would do but it’s at least as smart as putting all your money in a high school arm who might just as well in up in the bullpen long-term.
You guys win. You can keep your little marked-out piece of internet territory. Spend your days communicating via keyboard with people too ugly for the real world and too nerdy for anyone to care, anyway. Your piece of land is here. Do the rest of civilization a favor and stay within its limits. You bore me. Have fun with your nightly sobs and screams into your pillow over your inability to attract a good mate, Radiohead. ~The Hooligan
by Daniel Berlyn on Jun 4, 2010 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Not a fan of Heckathorn
but I could see your comp to Arnett. OTOH, I haven’t written Arnett off. I don’t think Cole has thrown his change much at all, has he? Where are you getting three pitches? He’s reputed to have one, but it hasn’t seen much game action, which is typical for top h.s. arms who generally don’t need more than two pitches to get guys out. Unless I’d seen him throw it regularly I’d have trouble saying he’s ahead of Wojcie in that regard.
Even if you think Cole is more projectable, you have to wonder how he grows into his frame. AW is extremely sturdy, with a strong lower half, and he’s certainly far less risky. If you’re so worried about the Brewers’ ability to develop pitching, wouldn’t you want the guy with MORE present performance and LESS projection? Why give them more to mess up? lol
by blackoutyears on Jun 5, 2010 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions
If the Jays pick Wimmers they've been pulling a J.P. for the last 6 months
http://mlbastian.mlblogs.com/
“But, as far as upside, there’s risk. But, as far as college players, there’s risk, too. The way we look at it is we’ll take a risk on a player that we feel has a chance to be a star. Maybe it’s a 20-percent chance to be a star versus a 75-percent chance of another player being an everyday player. The everyday player on our scale, which is the 50s and 55s in the system we use, those players are easier to get in trades or through free agency or Minor League free agency. The players who are 70s and 80s are a lot tougher to get. I’m not saying they’re out there, but that’s what we’re shooting for.”
“I guess, for me, if a guy’s ceiling is a 55 everyday player, and that’s a good player, and it’s high probability that he gets to that, to me that’s almost a risk in itself because you’re not saying that you’re getting an All-Star caliber player. These guys don’t grow on trees — it’s tough. But, with the division we play in and the philosophy of our general manager, we’re in a position where we want to try to be aggressive with guys with upside.”
Confused
Who has told you that the Jays think Wimmers can’t be a frontline starter? He’s pretty frickin good – fastball that sits in the low 90s, secondaries that impress.
It sounds more like you just don’t really care for Wimmers, therefore he would be an unwise selection.
by mrkupe on Jun 4, 2010 1:08 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Wimmers' upside
Is that of a #3. I think he’s pretty dang good as well. Ive seen him in person twice in the past 2 years, but his ceiling is not that of a frontline starter.
I think the Jays will go with a bat with their first pick this year, like Colon or Sale.
Yeah I don’t hate the Wimmers pick and I actually prefer it to the Wilson rumors, hate the combo of no hit tool and huge price tag on him but I prefer guys like Whitson and Josh Sale with the #11 pick
As a Jays fan,
I think it’s too early for an OF. I’d rather Double A take an OF or 2 with the supplemental and 2nd or 3rd round picks. As for pick #11, I’d gamble on Ranaudo as long as he pitches well this weekend. If he doesn’t, I’d want Castellanos or Allie if John’s mock is correct.
Well we took Jenkins last year when we could've taken Trout
We’d probably like to have that pick back.
I don't know about that
I don’t think anyone expected Trout to do what he is doing except himself, I hope. Hindsight is and will always be 20/20. Jenkins hasn’t dominated to the extent other top sp prospects have but he has more than held his own after not pitching last year because of signing late.
If guys like James Shields can succeed in the AL East, I don't see why Wimmers couldn't.
A guy who people see as a #3 stuff-wise will sometimes be consistent enough to be a #1. Mark Buerhle, Tim Hudson, James Sheilds… the list goes on.
You guys win. You can keep your little marked-out piece of internet territory. Spend your days communicating via keyboard with people too ugly for the real world and too nerdy for anyone to care, anyway. Your piece of land is here. Do the rest of civilization a favor and stay within its limits. You bore me. Have fun with your nightly sobs and screams into your pillow over your inability to attract a good mate, Radiohead. ~The Hooligan
by Daniel Berlyn on Jun 4, 2010 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Opportunity cost of capital issue
Why draft a guy who will be a good #3 in the first round, when you can find them just as easy in a round somewhere before the 10th?
I see youre a MU Tigers fan, I’m assuming for baseball as well? Last year, after seeing Kyle Gibson pitch on many occasions, felt he was a solid #2 going into the draft. This year, after seeing Nick Tepesh as well, see him more as a #3 or #4 type starter, and he will drop to later rounds for this reason.
I have no problem with any of the pitchers you mention, its just that in the first round, with a top of the round pick, you need to go high upside, power arm, front of the rotation type of staring pitcher in the draft. Its only my opinion, but I just feel that guys that are mid to bottom of the rotation type of guys are better spent on later rounds.
I don't think Wojchiechowski is as good as Gibson but it's a matter of philosophy.
College pitchers who aren’t utterly dominant are often seen as “safe” or lower ceiling because they are already in their 20s. The fact of the matter is that anyone with overpowering stuff or plus command has a decent chance of succeeding in the majors. Wojchiechowski seems to be solid in both departments and the combination could make him a “top of the rotation” starter. He’s already much closer to MLB level than someone like Cole and he has the stuff and command. What isn’t there to like? He has all the time he’ll need to develop a third pitch.
Then you still have the bonus money to give to players who have nearly as much as potential to succeed as someone like Cole. This gives you a better chance of finding a difference maker out of guys the team has been scouting for a long time. If it was Taillon, it would be different, but if the team decides it doesn’t want to spend a ton of cash on a risky prep arm, I don’t blame them… they have just as good a chance of getting that type of player later in the draft while getting a high-upside college arm.
You guys win. You can keep your little marked-out piece of internet territory. Spend your days communicating via keyboard with people too ugly for the real world and too nerdy for anyone to care, anyway. Your piece of land is here. Do the rest of civilization a favor and stay within its limits. You bore me. Have fun with your nightly sobs and screams into your pillow over your inability to attract a good mate, Radiohead. ~The Hooligan
by Daniel Berlyn on Jun 4, 2010 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Blue Jays
If thats all I can get at pick 11 is a ceiling No.3 starter, then don;t sign him next years draft is stronger. News flash JP was fired
You do realize
how valuable the average #3 starter is, right? Especially in your division? If you felt a guy was relatively guaranteed to reach that ceiling, that he’d reach it within two to three years, and could be had for a couple of million, you would absolutely take him early. How much do those guys get paid as free agents again?
by blackoutyears on Jun 5, 2010 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Mixed feelings as an Astros fan
Don’t like Cox, but Josh Sale is my favorite draft prospect. Would rather have Whitson at #8 and Sale at #19, I guess.
probably not
But Austin Wilson probably would be. Not a lot of chance the Astros could pry him away from Stanford, but Id rather have him than any of a handful of bats in this years draft.
I'm curious
As to why the Padres draft history should be taken into account when they have a new GM in Jed Hoyer, a new Assistant General Manager (who is a former scouting director) in Jason McLeod and new Scouting Director Jaron Madison in place for this draft. That seems like it could do things differently than the team of Kevin Towers, Grady Fuson and Bill Gayton that was in place last year, no?
No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong about that.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
Whitson to Oakland...
…not sure exactly how that makes “logical sense” when most people are saying that they seem to be more likely to stick to slot. Not surprisingly the only HS pitcher I’ve seen them connected to was Covey, who is easily the most signable out of the 1st round HS arms.
This whole Austin Wilson dropping out of the 1st round is beginning to get silly for me
Think back, there was a high school kid last year who was thought to be a tough sign, and, despite his prodigious tools, some questioned how well his bat would play. And look where that high school kid is now. Not to mention that Wilson’s make-up is OFF the charts. If I could, I’d put money that he is one of the top 3-4 most successful prospects from this draft
You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220
Who are you talking about . . .Trout?
I’d be surprised if Wilson hit .270 next year in the Midwest League, let alone .370.
by mrkupe on Jun 4, 2010 3:26 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
And why's that?
You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220
The contact issues, probably.
You guys win. You can keep your little marked-out piece of internet territory. Spend your days communicating via keyboard with people too ugly for the real world and too nerdy for anyone to care, anyway. Your piece of land is here. Do the rest of civilization a favor and stay within its limits. You bore me. Have fun with your nightly sobs and screams into your pillow over your inability to attract a good mate, Radiohead. ~The Hooligan
by Daniel Berlyn on Jun 4, 2010 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, Wilson seems like the kind of guy
you’re going to have to be very patient with, might not hit much for a year or two.
one and one and one is three
i'd be fairly pleased with this for the Cubs
I want some upside and pop, and O’Connor definitely fits. Even if he doesn’t stick at catcher, we have needs at the corner IF/corner OF spots in the system for the long run.
That's why
Monday is gonna be Fun Day. Strap yourself in.
by blackoutyears on Jun 4, 2010 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Cardinals
25) Cardinals: Kolbrin Vitek, INF-OF, Ball State University: Someone always falls, and while Vitek has been mentioned as a top ten candidate, in this version of the multiverse he’s the one who slips.
Ugh.
Albert Pujols is a god, and you my friend should be doing no less than groveling at his feet.
If the Giants take Brentz
with Cowart & Castellanos still on the board, I’ll be mad.
Proud father of Mike Krukow (who is more than 3 times my age)
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Still cheering for Kevin Frandsen
John Bowker: One of the 3 best OF's on the Giants roster
+1
Totally agree with you on Brentz. He’d be way too 1-dimensional for the Giants and stuck out in LF where his arm won’t be a factor.
I wouldn’t go with Cowart or Castellanos though. I’m not sold on either of them ever developing power with wood bats in the majors, and Cowart will be a tough sign. I’d go with your sleeper Cecchini or Tyler Holt before I’d pick those 2 other “C” kids.
If the first 23 picks go like John predicts, I’d go for Barret Loux or James Paxton at 24.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Eibner seems like a big reach at #13 to me – especially when you see who else is available then.
I also feel sorry for whoever gets Zach Cox with such a high pick – that guy has 1st round bust written all over him IMO. Especially for an NL team – I think he’ll end up as a DH somewhere. I wouldn’t pick him before in the 1st or 2nd round.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
was just about to fanpost this
this is the guy I want. i’m giddy right now. really like him.
baseball rules.
It's a long shot for him to stick behind the plate
I don’t think he’s immediately moved off, but you can’t assume that he’s your catcher of the future when he’s as raw as he is behind the plate.
Myers
is more valued for the bat anyway, right? At this point I’m trying to make it as easy as possible for him, Hosmer and Mous to advance as hitters. With Hosmer at 1B, is there anything wrong with Myers and Moustakas ending up in the OF? I certainly wouldn’t be worried about Myers if I’m considering a C.
by blackoutyears on Jun 5, 2010 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions
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