Wilson Ramos is overrated for fantasy, but not to MLB teams
by Hank Aaron on Jun 23, 2010 1:16 PM EDT
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As far as I can see he's never hit that great in the minors. In 189 ab at AAA this year he's hitting .217 with 4 hrs and 18 rbis with a 35/7 K/BB ratio. The most hrs he's ever hit in the minors is 13 two years ago in 452 ab. Frankly, I'm baffled at the interest in him from a fantasy stand point. I understand why MLB teams love him, because he's a good defender that should hit for a decent average. That's something not to be taken lightly from a MLB point of view. I guess he does have some pop potential and he did look good in 27 at bats when Mauer went on the DL earlier this year, but that doesn't justify the hype when you consider his entire body of work. If the Twins are smart they will offer him up to get Cliff Lee. Ramos has no position on the Twins. He doesn't hit well enough to DH and he's not mobile enough to play third or first. I guess Mauer could go to third. That would be the only scenario that makes sense to me. It makes the most sense to trade him for what will no doubt be good value.
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Mets can offer Josh Thole and Reese Havens
Get er done!
Fat man is no more,
Bursting on through Heaven's Door
Come on in, says Bill
I think he's bettert han you assume
His AAA stats weren’t that great, but he looks like a .280 hitters with some power, which is probably a touch above average for a C, even before you get to his defensive side. If he ever starts walking, he could be a significantly above average C.
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Heres a good comp.
Angels Catchers
Offensively Mike Napoli
Defensively Jeff Mathis
that is why sooooooooooooo many teams have ALREADY contacted the Twins about Ramos…. I believe long ago when the Mariners were kicking tire treads in an attempted offer of Jose Lopez for Francisco Liriano the Twins said nope and then they countered with Lopez for Ramos + a minor league fill in guy….
Wow Blackburn makes nearly identical money as Baker does now....
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jun 23, 2010 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions
You know, most people don't believe that Mathis' defense and gamecalling actually outweighs his absolutely awful hitting
If Mathis’ defense is average, he’s a replacement-level catcher with the way he hits. His defense is likely quite good, around +10 or something, but that still just makes him a roughly 1 WAR player and a well below average regular.
Even a good defender has to be able to hit a little to make it as a starter.
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by Satchel Price on Jun 23, 2010 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed, he could really stand to refine his approach more
At this point, he’s probably still in line to a solid everyday player because of his defensive skills and ability to make contact, but his upside will always be limited by his lack of power and unwillingness to walk.
I think that Ramos ends up somewhere other than Minnesota, because he pretty much has to play catcher for his bat to play well, and moving Mauer off catcher at this point is premature because he’s still a plus defender there. I wonder if something like Ramos+Revere+Pitching could land them Lee.
Just close your eyes and picture a Lee/Baker/Liriano/Pavano playoff rotation for a second. It’s pretty scary.
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by Satchel Price on Jun 23, 2010 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Twins fans have to stop imagining getting Cliff Lee with a package built around Wilson Ramos.
Cliff Lee is the best left-handed pitcher in the majors, and even at a rental, its going to cost the Twins something that hurts. I’m hearing too much “Blackburn and Ramos” talk.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 23, 2010 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions
You know, Ramos was considered a top-50 prospect coming into the season by some, and a top-75 guy by everyone
And I’m pretty much positive that the Twins wouldn’t include Kyle Gibson as a PTBNL.
The Mariners might be able to get a better offer elsewhere, but something like Ramos+Blackburn+Revere might end up being the best offer they get. Not that they should necessarily take it.
Lee is going absolutely insane on hitters right now, though. His 16.75 K/BB would destroy the MLB record for a pitcher that qualified for the ERA title.
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by Satchel Price on Jun 23, 2010 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm aware that some had him that high.
But the consensus now would not be top 50 and he’s fringe 100. He wouldn’t make some respectable top 100 lists.
Ben Revere is nothing more than a speedy outfielder and his drop in slugging percentage has dropped him in the prospect rankings considerably.
Nick Blackburn is Nick Blackburn.
It might be the best package Jack Z offers and if it is I think that Jack Z will happily take the picks because he probably thinks he can do no worse in the draft than what those 3 have to offer, only younger.
Im just saying that when Twins fans come to the Mariners blog and ask “Do you think we can get Lee for Wilson Ramos, Player X, and Player Y” the answer is NO.
In the same way that the Mets can’t build a package around Ike Davis or Jon Niese.
There probably won’t be a Bartolo Colon or Mark Teixeira or Erik Bedard type package out there, but something similar to building around a Matt LaPorta type package seems about right.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 23, 2010 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Why would Lee cost that much?
Look at what premiere pitchers with expiring contract have been getting back recently. No one is going to pay out the nose for three months of Cliff Lee – especially when he supposedly wants a lot of money.
Hell, look at the unimpressive haul the Phils got for him sending him to Seattle. I would expect that kind of return. Really, all you need to is to beat the two picks the M’s would get.
I’m no Ramos fan, but he’s a better prospect than Aumont or Gillies – and those two were for a whole year of Lee. Ramos could definitely headline a Lee deal IMO.
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I mean, let's be honest, though
Pretty much everyone thought, “What the hell are the Phillies doing?”
I mean, the idea of trading one year of Cliff Lee at the cost of $9M for Phillippe Aumont, J.C. Ramirez and Tyson Gillies just kind of sounds dumb.
Although, yeah, just because the Phils didn’t get enough for Lee doesn’t mean that the M’s will do the same. I’m just skeptical about the Mariners ever getting an offer for more than a No. 25-50 type guy along with a few other pieces. And a lot of people (maybe Jack Z, who knows?) have thought of Ramos as a top-50 guy before.
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by Satchel Price on Jun 24, 2010 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions
The package the Indians got for Lee wasn't impressive either, though.
Premiere pitchers who are impending free agents and looking for gobs of money just don’t bring great returns.
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If you read fangraphs you'll see that the remainder of Cliff Lee's season is very valuable.
You aren’t just getting two compensatory picks, you’re getting 2-3 months of Cliff Lee, 3 months being worth ~20 million dollars. Plus potential playoffs. The Mariners would gladly take finishing the season with Cliff Lee and two picks over “all you need to do is beat the two picks”
Yeah, you do have to beat it. Wilson Ramos perhaps being worth a late first rounder pick, and I wouldn’t consider Revere to be a 2nd round pick now that he’s 22 years old and struggling.
And did you SEE Cliff Lee last night? That’s all he does. He’s having a historic season. CC Sabathia was a rental and I expect that kind of package.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 24, 2010 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions
And that kind of package is essentially this:
A Top 25-50 range prospect, one B-/B grade prospect, one C+ prospect, and a throw-in guy.
If the M’s view Ramos as a Top 50 kind of guy, then something like Ramos+Benson+Gutierrez+Manship could be a pretty reasonable offer.
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by Satchel Price on Jun 24, 2010 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think Jack sees Ramos as a top 50 prospect, he's shown he's smarter than that.
It’s going to be hard for him to extract a top 25 prospect, but you never know. I’m still curiously waiting to hear the Reds mentioned as possible suitors and maybe get something worked out around Homer Bailey and a couple prospects.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 24, 2010 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Ramos, Benson, Gutierrez and Manship
is waaaaaaaaaaay to much for 2-3 months of Cliff Lee
even if someone like Aardsma is included
Wow Blackburn makes nearly identical money as Baker does now....
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jun 24, 2010 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions
You have to factor
the high compensentory picks the Twins will get when they don’t sign him after the season. That and a better chance to make and go deeper in the playoffs makes it worth it.
I’d definitely deal those four for Lee and Aardsma. The Twins have fifteen Manship clones in their minors system right now, losing Gutierrez doesn’t hurt that bad, and Ramos is a starting catcher whose value needs to be cashed in at some point. Benson looks nice and the Twins could use some legit defense/power combos in their future OF, but they’re pretty stacked with OF prospects too. I’d almost rather include another pitcher or a different position player than Benson.
I'm aware he's really good.
He was really good the last two times he was traded, too.
You expect a LaPorta/Brantley/Bryson/Jackson package? Ramos+ a couple other decent guys is pretty equivalent IMO.
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Though, again, I'm not a Ramos fan and if I were trading him I'd go in a different direction.
Just saying… its not that far off, especially if you bulk up the back end with better prospect equivalents than Jackson/Bryson.
So my point, really: a Ramos based deal isn’t that unreasonable, though it wouldn’t be my preference.
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As long as you agree that Wilson Ramos isn't a great prospect, then we are on the same page.
I prefer the Mariners go with an elite-type trade (1 grade A prospect and then a couple filler guys) than a well-rounded trade (the Carrasco/Knapp/Etc. for Lee trade)
Wilson Ramos is not that much better than Adam Moore, if he’s even better at all. If the offer is Slowey/Ramos and a couple younger prospects, then I’m getting a little more interested because now I know I’m getting two major league players. But Ramos’ future in the major leagues is as a capable catcher (which is still valuable) but not a star. For Cliff Lee, I’d rather get a future star, or let Jack work his Nick Franklin magic again.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 24, 2010 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Revere is struggling?
He’s 22 in AA, with a batting average over .300, and more walks than strikeouts. He’s actually playing better this year than last year.
Playing better than last year isn't a ringing endorsement.
22 is younger than the average but it’s not super young for AA. He can steal bases. His defense, I admit I don’t know anything about. I just don’t see how the Mariners with Gutierrez, Ichiro, Saunders, and a few outfield prospects that are at least as good as Ben Revere, would have any interest in another outfielder with no power. So putting him into a package for Lee, I hope, does nothing for them.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 12:20 AM EDT up reply actions
you're trying to ignore my point
You said that Revere is struggling, and my post was solely about that. I gave you multiple reasons as to why he is actually not struggling, with the biggest one being that he’s actually been a more successful player this year than he was last year. I didn’t mention anything about his age, but as you noted, he is younger than league average. Maybe he’s not a guy that the Mariners want (or maybe he is, I don’t know), but it’s not because he sucks.
No, I get your point. I just disagree with you.
Two years ago Revere hit .379/.433/.497 with 44 stolen bases in 83 games and people took notice and BA ranked him 59th going into 2009.
Then he hit .311/.372/.369 and stole 45 bases in 121 games but was caught 17 times and people said “oh, he’s a fourth outfielder”
He’s still a fourth outfielder. His batting average is down, his slugging percentage is down, so how is he doing better than last year? How is he doing so immensely better than last year that you’re making me do a side note about some player I don’t even care about just because I know you’re incorrect? Is Ben Revere your brother or something? Why do you care?
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Well
Right now he’s hitting .306/.382/.365, so while he’s dropped 5 points off his average(that drop accounts for the drop in SLG too, can’t count it twice) he’s increased his IsoD from .061 to .076. I’m much more interested in his improved OBP than his slight drop in AVG. Beyond that his SB rate has improved dramatically from 72.6% to 80.7% and his XBH% is up from 13.1% to 14.9%. All of this while he’s moved up to AA, generally considered to be the biggest jump in the minors.
So yeah, I think mrkupe was right on this one.
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I'm gonna give you another chance.
Because you’re numbers are wrong. So double check your numbers and then come back to me.
PS – You can lose points on your batting average and up your slugging percentage. In fact, it happens all the time. They don’t correlate like that.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Okay you said ISOD not ISOP. Which by the way is .059. Up from .058!!! WOW!!!
And his wOBA is .337. Up from .336! HE’’S GONNA BE AN ALL-STAR!
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions
He's doing it at Double-A and not Single-A, that means something
And you do realize that if Revere can be a .300/.350/.370-type hitter with solid defense in center and his baserunning ability, he’s still at the very least a solid regular?
Not every prospect has to turn into an All-Star to be useful, if he ends up being a 2-3 WAR player that still makes him an exceptional value through his first six years in the league.
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by Satchel Price on Jun 25, 2010 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm aware of all of these things. Thank you.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
If you're aware of them
then what point are you even trying to make?
Nobody called Revere a future all-star, and he doesn’t have to be one in order to be a good prospect.
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by Satchel Price on Jun 25, 2010 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
You are focusing too much on my sarcasm.
I’m aware of all of those things. Thank you.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Umm
I never said anything of the sort as far as he’s an all star. I think quite the opposite. All I did was point out how you were incorrect in stating he’s worse this year. I’m really not sure why you’re harping on SLG% for a slap hitting CF, he’s never really projected for more than doubles power anyway.
And yes, I do know that AVG and SLG don’t always correlate evenly but in this case where Revere’s IsoP is up along with his XBH%, the drop in his SLG is because of his drop in AVG.
I’d also suggest holding the condescending attitude for situations where you’re actually correct about something, it plays up better that way.
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As far as prospects go, there is either getting better or getting worse. There is no staying the same. If you're staying the same, you're worse.
Even at AA. If he maintains his numbers all the way to the majors, he’s no more valuable than Wily Tavares. Who I would never start on a regular basis. I guess if his ceiling is Nyjer Morgan, that’s something. But it doesn’t mean he’s improved this year. He hasnt.
This is a post about Wilson Ramos, I’m done talking about Ben Revere.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Because he's maintaining his production against superior competition
which means he’s getting better!!
If he stayed the same while hitting against better pitchers, wouldn’t his numbers reflect that with some decline? Staying the same would’ve meant putting up similar numbers at the same level or showing some slight decline at a superior level. He’s showing some slight improvement at a superior level. I don’t know how you see that he’s the same.
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by Satchel Price on Jun 25, 2010 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions
I do get it. I just disagree that the rule applies to everybody. He's also striking out at a higher clip and getting nothing for it.
And moving up a level in competition, can sometimes be beneficial to the hitter if the league or park is hitter friendly compared to pitcher friendly, and I’m not sure how that change is for the Twins organization. I’m just confident that Ben Revere is no better than a fourth outfielder. And I respectfully disagree. Why can’t you agree to disagree and let’s just move on.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Fair enough.
It’s just that you seem to be arguing your opinion, and if you were merely trying to defend an opinion, you should’ve clarified that it was just an opinion in the first place.
And also, the FSL and EL (the two leagues that Revere has played in) are both pretty low-scoring environments. Not to mention that Fort Myers’ park was pitcher-friendly and New Britain’s park is essentially neutral.
So you see Revere’s ceiling as a fourth outfielder. I’ll respectfully disagree, because I see a lot of reasons to believe otherwise.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 25, 2010 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Great. I didn't realize you were stating fact instead of opinion about Revere's future.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions
The facts were about his numbers
Because the numbers actually support what I said far more than what you said.
Your evidence seems to be far more personal empirical data and your gut. Which is fine, but just don’t make it like you’re going off of established data and well-credited scouting reports.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 25, 2010 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm sorry that you read into it like that.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I mean, hey, I'd love to hear why you think that Revere is destined to be a fourth outfielder
Beyond the fact that he hasn’t improved or whatever, which just isn’t accurate.
I’m certainly not totally attached to Revere’s prospect status or anything, I just thought that you were underselling him by calling him nothing more than a fourth outfielder. I could maybe buy it with some better evidence, I just found yours to be rather underwhelming.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 25, 2010 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions
We can say that repeat performances at a higher level aren't as good as improved performances at a higher level, right?
That much is obvious. It lends more to the idea that when he gets to AAA, he’s going to have more of a struggle than at AA. So you’d rather see an improvement, or have him start off at a high ceiling so that as he moves up the system, even if there is a drop off, it’s not as significant. Revere started off very well but his drop off from 08 to 09 was so significant that any further drop in production as he moves up the ladder, would leave him unsuited for everyday action on the major league level unless he was on a very deep or very shallow roster. For the Twins – they could possibly afford it because they’ve got the mashers at 3 and 4 and like speed on the basepaths. For the Mariners, not so much. But just as Revere’s skillset alone, I don’t think he’d make every major league roster.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Revere's '08 numbers
were so skewed by an average over .370 that you really couldn’t just take them at face value.
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Well Baseball America obviously expected better from Revere than what he did.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I love BA for what they are
a great resource for scouting info. A strong statistical evaluator they are not. They weren’t alone obviously, I mean John bought in pretty hard on Revere after that as well. That’s kind of the problem with speedy contact hitters at the lower levels. Unless you get to see them regularly it’s pretty hard to tell how much of their success is their own doing and how much is predicated on overall poor minor league defenses they face. It’s very possible for a guy like that to end up with double and triple totals that are inflated by balls that would be outs against better defenses.
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interesting how Revere is such a conroversal prospect....
I see a future stolen base machine
what is he like 21/25 in SB’s this year? thats pretty darn good considering he’s like 5;8" and has shallow strides when running (i’ve seen him play)
much of his contact ability is underratted because i think in the big leagues he’s going to get far more infield hits than he is right now…
because he’ll face tougher pitching obviously
so there is something nobody ever talks about, I think he’s gonna be the next Juan Pierre which is a GOOD thing but hopefully he’ll have a larger ‘prime period’ of his career than Pierre did.
Wow Blackburn makes nearly identical money as Baker does now....
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jun 25, 2010 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Have you looked at Taveras' numbers?
He’s got a career .274/.320/.327 line. If Revere can maintain his numbers to the majors (.306/.382/.365), he’d be significantly more valuable than Taveras has been.
Wily Tavares AA numbers as a 22-year-old: .335/.402/.386 with 55 stolen bases.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions
You brought up him maintaining his numbers
If he maintains his numbers all the way to the majors, he’s no more valuable than Wily Tavares.
Which is clearly not correct. If he’s sees the sort of drop off in his numbers from AA to the majors that Tavares, then he’ll be no better than Tavares. If he maintains them, he’ll be significantly better.
And those were in the Texas League
Easily the highest scoring run environment among AA leagues.
And not to mention
that season was completely out of line with everything else in Tavares’ minor league career up to that point as well as anything going forward for him. Revere is a bit more consistent there.
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I would think...
The Sabathia deal is the one that the Mariners are going to look for. 1 high upside MLB-ready guy plus 2-3 more players. I dont think Ramos has that upside. At the best hes a league average Catcher, valuable enough, but not worth Cliff Lee.
I like the idea of giving the Mets a try
Lee can give a big upgrade over the back-end of the rotation guys they have. You can’t expect Dickey or Takahashi to keep up their preformance levels and even if they do, Lee is still a great upgrade.
On the mariners end, the Mets have some interesting prospects to offer. If they can pull away Davis, it can solve their 1B gap. Combined with Thole and Familia, it seems like a fair package. Of course, the Mets would need a replacement for Davis first. A package of Havens, Nieuwenhuis, Jefry Marte, and a throw in seems like a fair alternative to me.
I concur with the majority above on Ramos. The Mariners do not need another light-hitting catcher with allegedly good defense as their primary return in a trade. I am also concerned about the lack of improvement on his plate discipline.
by tdot mariner fan on Jun 24, 2010 2:57 PM EDT reply actions
The Mets aren't trading Davis
it is that simple. The other offer could work, but I would think the Mariners would try to pry away mejia before settling with Havens and Captain Kirk.
Well, yeah, I mean Davis has been one of the Mets' better hitters so far
Obviously the Mariners would love to get back Mejia, that would be probably the best cornerstone they could get unless the Yankees would be willing to offer Jesus Montero or something like that.
I just don’t know if I can see the Mets giving up Mejia, it’s been far too long since they developed a front-line pitcher (Pelfrey’s emergence this year withstanding) and Mejia has the projection to be a legitimate ace if everything comes together.
Then again, between Mejia, Fernando Martinez and Wilmer Flores, you’d think that the two teams could agree on a decent centerpiece.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 25, 2010 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions
It seems if they can trade Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano that Mejia for Lee would look much better in comparison for them.
Mejia and Flores are good starting points, I don’t think F-Mart would be. Just my opinion.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not convinced you think these names people are throwing out are unfair...
I think you just don’t like the guys, like Ramos and FMart. You sound pretty offended by the suggestion a deal can be built around Ramos.
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I think the majority of people who know minor league baseball would put Mejia and Flores ahead of Ramos and F-Mart. Not just me. And also because Jack wants near major league ready talent - outfielders aren't going to be what he's looking for.
We are talking about a deal for Cliff Lee only, not my opinion on the players abilities.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Sure.
I have to say… I think you’re setting yourself up for some disappointment if you’re expecting significantly more than a Ramos/Benson/etc… kind of package. I think they’ll be lucky to get an Aumont/Gillies kind of return back. We shall see.
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Ramos/Revere rather.
Again… look at the crap the Twins got for Johan.
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If you're talking about 2 or 3 players of the same ability as Wilson Ramos, that's one story.
But to say that Ramos is the “centerpiece” of a deal, that it’s him and two or three lower prospects, isn’t going to be enough.
Every fan of a team overrates their own prospects. It’s just natural. As a Mariners fan, I’m not going to let go of Nick Franklin for anything. But I’m sure that people outside of the organization would call that crazy. I can at least see that I’m coveting him more than fans of other teams.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Jarrod Saltalamacchia was the centerpiece of the Teixeira trade
It also netted the Rangers Andrus and Feliz. Just because one guy is the centerpiece, that doesn’t mean he’ll be the best player to come out of the trade. Just that he’s the most established guy at that point in time.
Yeah, lower-level prospects can often be the ones that emerge as stars
because they’re often included in the deal as high-upside wild cards, where the team giving up the player doesn’t feel that it’s a huge deal because there’s so much risk involved in said prospect.
The Twins have a lot of guys that could be included with Ramos that have that kind of upside.
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I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 25, 2010 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly
I remember thinking at the time that losing Feliz was nothing. He was just a lottery ticket with a huge fastball. At this point, its looking like the numbers hit for the Rangers.
In all fairness, Andrus was 18 at the time of the trade. Feliz was 19.
The names people are throwing around are Manship (25), Gutierrez (23), Benson (22) to go with Ramos (22) in comparison to Saltalamacchia who I was never even a fan of but was definitely favored much more than Ramos is now. So the Twins will have to at least do better than what has been suggested and if you’re talking about projectable 18 and 19 year olds, that’s another story.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Throw in Kepler!
5 MORE YEARS OF FELIX!
by Marinerfanjake on Jun 25, 2010 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions
That really has nothing to do with my comment
I was simply saying that Ramos could be the centerpiece of a very good deal built around high upside young guys the M’s like. I don’t really care about the names that other people have been bandying about.
Also, I think you’re overstating the difference between the rankings of Ramos and Salty. Salty was the preseason #36 prospect that year, coming off a very disappointing 2006 season, while Ramos was #58 coming into this season.
So please bandy about. I'm curious to hear some names you think would work around Ramos.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't know the Twins system that well
I’m a Braves fan and I didn’t even know Feliz, so I’m probably not the best source.
The comment you are mentioning here
that proposed that trade had the caveat of “if the Mariners see Ramos as a top 50 prospect”. It’s obvious that you don’t, but it doesn’t mean the Mariners brass are in agreement.
http://bullpenbanter.com
Nobody here knows what M's management thinks so thats why I said "if"...
??
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I made an if statement about the Mariners and its like you explained to me what an "if" statement meant.
I don’t understand the point of your comment.
I said “Yes, if the M’s see him as a top 50 prospect” there is one scenario and “if they dont” its another scenario.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh I see now
You’re staying with this thread of comments, I was talking about the thread where the Ramos/Manship/etc deal was mentioned and your reply to that was Jack Z is smarter than to think Ramos is top 50. I think it’s a bit of a stretch to say that, the M’s have shown they understand the value of defense which is Ramos’ strong suit while having some value with the bat.
I’d say something like Ramos with an arm like Salcedo and another high upside guy(maybe Arcia?) would be good for Lee, and is a situation where Ramos is the centerpiece.
http://bullpenbanter.com
Agreed.
This whole thing started with my suggestion of a Ramos/Revere/Blackburn offer from the Twins, which was what started the whole conversation about Ben Revere’s prospects.
I then suggested Ramos/Benson/Manship/Gutierrez, which might not necessarily be what the Mariners are looking for. But as I said before, IF they view Ramos as a top-50 guy (which isn’t totally ludicrous), and Benson as another quality OF prospect, then that offer really wouldn’t be all that bad. On the other hand, I didn’t quite realize how old all of those players were, which was a very good point to be made.
That being said, it’s pretty reasonable to argue that the Mariners could be looking for a different kind of package, even if it was one that’s still headlined by Ramos.
I’m in pretty solid agreement that something like Ramos+Salcedo+Arcia/Morales would probably be a pretty solid offer for Lee. I think that the Twins would probably talk about anyone in the minors but Aaron Hicks, Kyle Gibson and Miguel Sano, but of course that’s purely speculation.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 25, 2010 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I have heard mixed reviews about his defense. That's all I know about Ramos's defense.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I think he's good now, but the concerns are about if he possibly grows more it could be an issue
Law said this before the season, not sure if you have ESPN Insider: “Ramos is big, taller than his listed 6-foot height, and his large frame suggests he might outgrow the position. But right now he throws extremely well (he’s nailed 43 percent of would-be base stealers in the past two years) and his receiving is adequate. He does need to work on the intangible aspects of catching, like handling a staff, something the Twins value very highly in their catchers.”
I don’t know if he’ll ever be one of the best defenders in the league at the position, but it sounds pretty reasonable to believe that he could be above average for a while.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 25, 2010 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Speaking from an unbiased perspective, I'd say Ramos profiles as a good future major league catcher.
As I said earlier, that is very valuable. Someone said he’s like AJ Pierzynski and if that’s true, then that’s great.
However, speaking from a Mariners perspective, they have to believe he’s better than Adam Moore. They want a catcher, but not one that’s going to possibly be blocked by Adam Moore or vice versa, he has to be a catcher that’s definitely a better prospect than Adam Moore. And Ramos hasn’t done anything at the plate this year to help his case.
Now, it would be good for the M’s to get a guy like Ramos, but only if he came along with a couple of other major league ready players or a couple young studs.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, I agree that they need to get more than Ramos
He can’t be far and away the best prospect in the deal like with the LaPorta/Sabathia deal.
But if they’re including guys like Salcedo and Morales, then I think that makes for a pretty well-balanced deal.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 25, 2010 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
That's not a good way to look at it
Both of them are assets, it doesn’t really matter if one or the other is better. If they’re both in AAA they can split time between C and DH. Hopefully, one can play in the majors while one works in AAA. They diversify their risk, making it far more likely then end up with an average or better catcher, and if both work out than they have a valuable asset to move on the trade market.
I'm not coming down on your nixa and telling you everything you say is wrong. We just disagree. Okay?
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions
No offense taken
But you disagree that its good to have two solid catching prospects? I don’t understand that.
As long as the other pieces that come with Ramos are just as good as he is.
Not if he’s the main package. I’d just take the compensatory picks.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh I agree
I just don’t think Adam Moore would be a good reason to turn down Ramos in a deal that included Salcedo, Revere and another asset if that’s as good as any other offer.
Agreed.
Now, if they just don’t consider it a good offer for whatever reason, or they consider another offer superior, then okay.
But don’t turn down the best offer because you’re worried that two players might be just a little too redundant.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 25, 2010 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Ramos+Salcedo+Revere+Asset sure, if that's the best offer Jack has, is better than compensatory picks.
Trust me, I don’t WANT the picks. When Lee signs with the Yankees, we could be getting like 32 and some supplementary pick a little bit later. Even in next years draft, you just don’t know what you’re getting. And its possible the Yanks sign another player and we dont even get their 1st round pick. I don’t want the picks as much as I want known assets.
I think we are in agreement, just a miscommunication about having Ramos as the “main guy” when it doesn’t really make them that much better at the catching position, as opposed to getting a similar player at short or first.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, there's generally room for two good catchers on the roster
Particularly when neither one of them is so good that they absolutely need 550+ PA a season. They could both bounce around C/1B/DH and get 500+ PA a year and be exceptionally valuable.
And that’s making the wild assumption that both of them will pan out.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 25, 2010 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions
You're basically getting two shots at getting a capable catcher, which is great.
I would just rather have Adam Moore and a good shot at an above average first baseman.
Many people argue that Lee’s value has gone down since the M’s got him because you’re only getting half a season compared to a full season, but I really believe that since now there are teams that are in contention and can now evaluate their weakness at SP and have the playoffs in their sights, Lee’s value has gone up slightly. Also because he’s been other-worldly.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Obviously I think the M's should target one of three guys you mention as untouchables and then work from there.
If I’m Jack, I’m starting with Kyle Gibson and Miguel Sano and then I’ll move to Aaron Hicks and then I’ll wait til July 31st. And I’ll continue to talk to the Mets. If Lee gets dealt on the 31st, this could be a reasonable package. But the longer the Twins wait, the worse.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I can see why you'd want one of them
I’m just skeptical of their availability. I just don’t know why the Twins would be willing to give up Gibson, he looks like he could be a No. 2 starter by 2012. It just seems like too much for a half-year of Lee and two draft picks if he’s just one of three or four prospects going to Minnesota.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 25, 2010 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm skeptical too. But I think that's where its going to start.
Jack is hoping that one team will panic. They’ll call Jack and say “Here’s Ramos and X, Y, Z” and Jack says “Sorry, I’m going to ship him to the Mets, they’re giving me Meija” or better year “We’re shipping him to the Tigers for Crosby” and then its “Oh wait, okay, Gibson instead of Ramos”
That just seems like the strategy Jack will employ with the absolute best trade chip on the market.
I mean, Cliff Lee is the AL Cy Young right now.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, I just don't know if that happens
I think you’re being pretty optimistic in thinking that guys like Mejia, Crosby and Gibson will be offered.
And seriously, with all of the question marks surrounding Crosby, I’m not sure that it would be that impressive of an offer given the lack of depth in Detroit’s system.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 25, 2010 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, I'm very excited to find out what finally will happen. That's for sure.
With everybody arguing about what the market is for a rental these days, we can finally find out.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions
And what happens
When they call his bluff and a trade doesn’t happen that day? Suddenly he loses all credibility and leverage he may have had. Suddenly, those other teams know that their competitors aren’t including elite guys either, so why should they?
You're right Jack has no credibility around the league.
I don’t know what Jack will do, I’m just speculating.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions
What? Think you misunderstood
If you try and bluff teams into giving up an elite prospect, you get called on it, and everyone figures it out, that’s going to make it a little tougher to pull things off in the future. You’re going to lose some of the credibility you had in discussing possible deals with other teams, both in the possible Lee trade and other future trades. I think it’d be a far bigger gamble that you realize.
Maybe he's bluffing, maybe he isn't. I'm sure that just like an agent who is representing a big free agent, he's going to call an opposing team that wanted my guy and let them know they're about to sign him for X amount of dollars "you want to top it?"
That’s all I’m saying.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I see where you're coming from
I just think the situations are very, very different. Agents aren’t up against hard deadlines like Z is here, and they aren’t as reliant on their credibility, or whatever you want to call it, in their negotiations.
The problem with that stance
Is that it leads to absolutely no productive discussions. If Jack Z isn’t going to have substantive discussions without 2 of Gibson/Sano/Hicks in the fold, that he’s not going to make any headway prior to the deadline and he risks pricing himself out, seeing the Twins or Mets move on to another target, and losing most of his leverage. In a vacuum, that sort of stance makes sense, but in the real world it prevents progress and is far riskier than it seems.
Jack has plenty of leverage.
He’s got a pitcher who could be worth 4 WAR the rest of the season and who carries two compensation picks with him. The market is Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt and the rest. Doubtful Dan Haren gets traded.
I don’t think Jack Z is going to panic if its July 20th and the Mets picked up Kevin Millwood and the Twins picked up Dave Bush. There will be a market for Cliff Lee until the deadline.
And I didn’t mean two of three. I mean I’d start with Gibson or Sano.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions
If Jack Z can come out of that deal with Gibson
He should be pretty ecstatic though.
I’m VERY interested to see how this whole situation plays out, because I think that it’s going to say a lot about how Jack Z is as a deal-maker, beyond his exceptional scouting eye.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 25, 2010 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions
He came away aces with Franklin Gutierrez. Not to mention Cleto and Vargas and Carp all in one deal.
And he really came away just as good in the deal to get Cliff Lee. So we know he can trade for a big name and he can trade for prospects but this will definitely be a big hurdle for him. How will he do trading away the big name at the deadline. Everybody wants to come out like Jon Daniels did, but it’s probably not realistic. If he can get a solid bat or a solid arm, that will be plenty. Because I don’t like the risk of taking it to the draft next year.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, for one, the Lee deal just kind of fell into his lap, right?
Any GM in the world would’ve taken the offer immediately, nobody thought that Aumont/Ramirez/Gillies was a good offer for Lee but Philadelphia management apparently.
Although I will gladly admit that the Gutierrez/Putz deal was an absolute steal for the M’s, that was certainly impressive.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 25, 2010 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Some people still insist that moving Morrow to Toronto was part of the Lee deal.
Otherwise the package for Lee doesn’t make any sense when they could’ve sent him just about anywhere and gotten something better. But if you do include Halladay into the mix, it makes a little more sense.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not saying he'd panic
But let’s say one the suitors moves on to Oswalt and another picks up a solid, non-ace guy. Suddenly there isn’t as pressing of a need and teams can sit back and say, do you want the prospects we’re offering or two compensatory picks that will cost you millions to sign and who aren’t nearly as proven as what we’re offering. There’s a similar chance that offers get worse as the deadline approaches, as opposed to getting better.
Well, yeah.
I could do something pretty awful, compare it to the Holocaust and feel alright about myself.
Let’s find some better comparisons for trades than Kazmir-for-Zambrano, which never, ever looked like a reasonable deal to anyone but apparently the Mets’ management.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 25, 2010 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Huh? The Holocaust? Satchel - just because we have a disagreement about Ben Revere, I really hope you aren't going to get snotty with all your remarks.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions
What? I don't care about that.
One dumb comparison deserves another, that’s all.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 25, 2010 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Is Mets management the same now as it was then?
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Nope. It's not.
That management was ran by Jim Duquette, and now it’s ran by Omar Minaya.
Who cares what Duquette did, the guy is the host of an XM radio show now.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 25, 2010 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Fair enough, I was off by a couple months and I admit my mistake.
I won’t bring up the Bartolo Colon trade though.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, the Colon trade was kind of a unique situation
Because at the time the Expos were owned by MLB and it was pretty clear that they were going to end up leaving Montreal.
Obviously that deal was pretty much historically bad, I just don’t believe that it was entirely Minaya’s fault. There were a lot of weird things going on that culminated with that deal.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 25, 2010 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
It's unfair to pin any trade on the GM alone to be perfectly honest. He's just got his finger on the button. In this case, Minaya might not have even had that.
But it’s still not like he’s thought of as a genius GM. The best comment I heard about a month ago was “As a Mets fan, the last thing I want is Omar Minaya playing poker with Jack Z”
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, absolutely
I mean, why would front offices include dozens of guys if everything was only up to the GM? Hell, I think that we can safely say that often it’s not even the front office that’s orchestrating a deal, but rather it’s ownership taking hold.
I don’t think that the Colon deal is a good reflection of Minaya’s abilities as a GM. His tenure with New York is a much better reflection.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 25, 2010 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, he's going to have to hope for better results on the field. It's unfortunate how many injuries hit that team.
He gave up very little to get Johan Santana, but he’s also paying him a lot of money that he probably won’t earn. Jason Vargas has worked out well for the Mariners, JJ Putz did not work out well for the Mets. I never like the idea of signing a closer for 30 million as he did with Rodriguez, but that’s just the money they can afford. I’m not sure that Jason Bay was a great signing, obviously it doesn’t look great yet, but I think Bay is better than that.
Overall, I think he’s put together a good roster and he’s got money to work with. But they’ll need to make the playoffs soon. I wonder if that could pressure Minaya into a rash move for Lee or Oswalt.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, the Santana trade was pretty great, it's just that the extension almost negates how lopsided the talent exchange was
I really don’t believe that Minaya is a particularly good GM though. He already had Wright and Reyes in place before he got there, and he’s really made few moves where you can look at them and say, “Hey, Omar made a really great move here.”
You know, he coaxed a good period from Frenchy and getting Pagan was one of those great moves, but he’s struggled in a lot of ways. A lot of excessive contracts and moves that didn’t move a whole lot of sense. Not to mention that he not only has failed to convince ownership that spending money in the draft will make the team better, but they really have developed a particularly large amount of talent either.
End rant. Sorry about that.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 25, 2010 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah. Mostly bad money moves. But bad in comparison to an organization that would be crippled by them, which the Mets are not.
24 million owed to Perez.
23 million (plus 3.5 million buyout) to Rodriguez
The 4 year 66 million Bay contract.
12 million to Castillo
And they have to make a decision on Reyes after next season. Do they deal him and go with Flores or sign him long term and risk another bad injury-filled contract?
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions
No way Flores will be ready to play shortstop in the majors by 2011, that's just not happening
He’s hitting well in Advanced Single-A but he’s still not close to ready to the majors as a hitter, and he’s probably never going to be capable of playing shortstop in the majors, most project him to end up at third base or in the outfield.
But beyond the Perez/K-Rod/Bay/Castillo money, they also paid a lot of money to a borderline useless Pedro his final two years and an inconsistent Carlos Delgado. They’ve wasted money on guys like Cora and Francoeur, who shouldn’t have cost so much, too.
Oh, and that Santana contract is going to start to look really bad soon unless he starts to pitch better. He’s looked like a decent No. 4 so far this season.
If Reyes is gone, I think they’ll replace him with Ruben Tejada.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 25, 2010 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Reyes has a 2011 option, so that would be 2012 for Flores.
I think Santana’s contract is already really, really bad. Like how Ryan Howard’s is already really bad and it hasn’t started yet.
I don’t know much about Ruben Tejada. If Flores is going to move to third, then they’ll still have to trade him, no?
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, I thought you were implying that they might decline the option for some reason, sorry
Obviously that wouldn’t make sense given how hot he’s been of late.
Still, I don’t think that really anyone believes that Flores’ glove projects well at shortstop, he’s already pretty big and he’s expected to get even better. There’s even some skepticism about how he’ll glove would play at third base. The thing is, his bat projects so well that even if he has to move to the outfield, he still projects as a pretty exceptional player because his bat could be elite.
Flores is one of those guys where you don’t stress out about his position too much (and he could still be a 3B/RF), because I think that most people consider his bat to be special.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 25, 2010 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, it's a good problem for any organization to have.
They’ve got some good talent on the farm, maybe a bit underrated.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I think they have a few solid pieces
There system isn’t nearly as bad as it once was.
I think that with the emergence of Davis in NY and all the talk about Mejia, people have realize that the Mets actually have some talent in the minors now.
The Mets had a nasty habit of watching their best prospects burn out for a bit there, with Humber and Milledge and such.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 25, 2010 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Wright and Reyes were just so perfect maybe expectations were too high.
But Milledge was and still is pretty lousy, so who knows. Then they pushed F-Mart too fast and possibly mishandling of Meija.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Flores is not sticking at short
He might not even stick at third.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
For those of you thinking Gibson
Forget about it. The Twins aren’t trading Gibson in a Lee deal unless Lee agrees to a long term deal at the time of the trade and that’s not going to happen.
Unless I'm mistaken, this is a moot point.
Didn’t Kyle Gibson sign at the deadline? Therefore, he can’t be traded until after the July 31st trading deadline.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I brought up Gibson earlier just as a negotiating starting point, but forgot he could still be less than a year removed from his signing.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 25, 2010 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions
He could be included in the deal as a PTBNL
They could agree upon Gibson at the time of the deal, officially announce it as a PTBNL, and then officially ship Gibson to the M’s in August. Not that it’s particularly likely, as others have said.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 25, 2010 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Report: Seattle willing to deal Lee right now
Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com reports that “two executives from clubs that have called the Mariners about Cliff Lee say the team is indeed willing to trade the pitcher immediately for the right offer.”
Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik said Friday that he’s “not willing to throw in the towel just yet,” but presumably he’s more realistic behind the scenes. One executive said he expects Lee to be traded within the next 7-10 days, with Rosenthal calling the Twins “front-runners” while the Mets, Dodgers and Rangers are among the teams that “have inquired on Lee.” Jun. 26 – 9:37 am et
Source: FOXSports.com
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