Accept this? If so, which MiLB'er do I cut?

by soxkid on Jun 22, 2010 2:02 PM EDT

I'm currently in the works for a trade that would net me Matt Davidson with me trading away Chris Perez.

First, is that a good deal for me in a 20 team dynasty? I've seemingly punted saves in the past.

If I end up accepting the trade, who do I cut from my minor league roster?

Major League Roster:

2B. Felipe López, STL

LF. Raúl Ibañez, PHI

UT. Mike Stanton, FLA

RP. Chris Pérez, CLE

RP. Johnny Venters, ATL

Bench:

Jonathan Sánchez, SF (SP)

DL (3 spots):

MiLB (20 spots):

1B: Logan Morrison (FLA), Brett Wallace (TOR), Chris Carter (OAK), Jonathan Singleton (PHI)

3B: Will Middlebrooks (BOS)

OF: Nick Weglarz (CLE), Reymond Fuentes (BOS), Thomas Neal (SF), Chris Heisey (CIN)

P: Chris Archer (CHC), Blake Beavan (TEX), Tanner Bushue (HOU), Jarred Cosart (PHI), Felix Doubront (BOS), Robinson Lopez (ATL), Michael Main (TEX), Martin Perez (TEX), David Phelps (NYY), Zach Stewart (TOR)

Poll

Do I trade away Chris Perez for Matt Davidson?

Yes, I prefer Davidson

28 votes

No, I prefer Perez

33 votes

61 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 20 comments | 0 recs |

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Comments

If you answer yes, please give me a little insight on who you'd drop.

by soxkid on Jun 22, 2010 2:17 PM EDT reply actions

Is getting rid of Cleveland's setup man really "punting saves?"

I’d hold onto Perez. Davidson doesn’t do much for me (not that Perez really does). Perez could at least be a very good Closer in the future. I’m not sure you’re going to get a better return for Perez though, fwiw. You’re really picking the wrong time to trade him. Very much a “sell low” guy right now.

As to who I would drop… IMO your weakest minor leaguers are IMO Heisey and probably Phelps (lack of stuff bothers me)? I see that you’ve added Singleton. If you’re able to make in season pickups of minor leaguers I would seriously consider replacing those two… and you might even be able to upgrade on Stewart (poor season and may end up in relief) and Neal (terrible season, never produced outside of Cal League and doesn’t project as much of a fantasy asset). I wouldn’t drop Stewart and Neal for the hell of it… but if Singleton was available at some point there seems to be a good chance other upgrades are available. I’d almost rather drop Neal than Phelps, actually… at least Phelps is performing, even if he doesn’t have a particularly high ceiling.

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twitter: @alskor

by alskor on Jun 22, 2010 3:16 PM EDT reply actions

Is it really selling low on Perez though? How do you figure?

His ERA is sitting at 2.73, but his xFIP is at 5.30.

He’s giving up contact at a significantly higher rate this year (77.5% to 83.7%), and he’s seen his whiff rate drop nearly 2.5% from 9.4% down to 7.0%.

Perez has actually been a pretty bad pitcher this year, slightly below replacement for a reliever, so I’m not sure how one could figure that you’d be selling low on him if people are distracted by his ERA. Depends on how your opponents analyze players: are they just looking at ERA, WHIP and saves, or are they smart enough to look at some advanced metrics?

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Jun 22, 2010 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions

If you had sold him in April/early May

He was at that point the Closer for the Indians, and there was much speculation he would hold onto the job even after Wood returned.

Considering Kerry Wood is a) made of glass; b) pitching pretty poorly himself; and c) a free agent after the season (he does have a club option) there seems to be plenty of hope that Perez will be Closer again in the near future. At the worst, if you hold his rights (which I’m assuming he does since he would be getting a minor leaguer in return – dynasty least most likely), then I would have to say Chris Perez is still the favorite to be the Closer going into spring next year. Obviously a whole lot can happen between then and now… but IMO, there is a very good chance selling him now is the worst possible time. He could regain the job soon due to Wood’s poor performance and/or injury… OR he could be the favorite for the job over the winter. Whether he ends up with the job in 2011 or not his trade value will certainly be higher over the winter once Wood is a free agent than it is now.

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www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor

by alskor on Jun 22, 2010 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions

... or he could continue to put up an ugly FIP

and then have his ERA regress to that near-5 figure, making him a wholly unappealing option at closer.

It could certainly go either way, but I’m still trying to figure out why Perez is throwing his fastball more. The decreased use of his out-pitch (slider) in breaking ball counts has made him a far more hittable pitcher, and he’s not really the kind of pitcher who can afford to lower his strikeout rate.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Jun 22, 2010 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Sure

I’m not enamored of him as a pitcher… My assessment of him revolves around the fact he’s 1st in line behind a very shaky Closer. Whether he returns to become a quality pitcher or not isn’t all that important in terms of his trade value, especially over the winter. If he looks like he has the job in November/December owners will be able to get a better return than Matt Davidson, I would think. In a 20 team mixed w/ 20 man minor league rosters Davidson still isn’t some sort of great asset. I assume he picked up Singleton after the year began… quite likely a Davidson quality player or two is out there.

Perez is relatively young and talented, though, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see his peripherals get back up. I wouldn’t hesitate to trade him at all, mind you.

Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor

by alskor on Jun 22, 2010 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah guys I have put bids on and won this season include:

Chris Archer
David Phelps
Robinson Lopez
Jonathan Singleton
Felix Doubront
Will Middlebrooks

So there are certainly opportunities to get guys.

I guess I’ve been reading very positive things about Davidson’s bat and I am trying to acquire him. I had spoken to the other manager about it and he asked for Perez.

by soxkid on Jun 22, 2010 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Neither would I.

You just labeled this as a “sell-low”, which just seems counter intuitive when you have a guy with an ERA below 3 but an xFIP above 5, where he almost seems like a lock to perform worse from here on out in terms of allowing runs.

I mean, obviously there’s reason to believe that he’ll pitch better, his 3.98 xFIP from last season was significantly better, and it does appear that his decline is based in a change in approach rather than a decline in raw stuff.

I’m just not sure if I’d opt not to deal the guy solely because he might be in line for save opps next season.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Jun 22, 2010 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Well I meant punting the possibility of saves for next year...

by soxkid on Jun 22, 2010 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions

I would do the trade.

I would drop Chris Heisey, he is more of a fourth OF, in my opinion.

by fawnsmets on Jun 22, 2010 3:47 PM EDT reply actions

+1

"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."

by fourfingerwoo on Jun 22, 2010 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Depends on how you view Chris Archer, IMO

If he ends up being a reliever, he probably doesn’t profile as a closer, in which case Heisey is probably more valuable. Archer does have quite the numbers (3.05 FIP, 10.7 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 49.4% GB rate in Hi Single-A), though.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Jun 22, 2010 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions