MiLB 6/22
by daveh33 on Jun 22, 2010 1:56 PM EDT
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Printgetting these probables from minorleaguesplits....
Blake Beaven vs. Anthony Capra
Charles Furbush
Cal league, MWL, and SAL are all off today
Nick Barnese
Brad Holt
Dellin Betances
all the rookie leagues are in swing but not many probables are listed... having Wil Myers' withdrawals ... ugh
ps- to get to filler.... anyone see Justin Upton kill the Yankees last night? nights like those still make me think he will be the best player in the game at some point. so much swagger. so much violence on those pitches that he took yard last night
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J-Up
As soon as he cuts down on the K’s he will be unbelievable.
You know your a bad ass when you are having a “disappointing” season and you are still on pace to hit 30 homers and steal 20 bases as a 22 year old.
Love Love Love
Still think he will easily be the best in baseball by the time he’s 25.
My Guys: Gillies, Pacheco, Drabek, Verlander, Ozuna, A Salcedo, S Rodriguez, and others.
Easily? That's a pretty lofty thought, there.
I’m very excited to watch Upton’s career side-by-side with Heyward, though.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 22, 2010 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions
As if he hasn't been unbelievable yet?
The guy batted .300/.362/.532 while playing plus defense in right field as a 21-year-old!!
The contact issues have held him back, but they haven’t held him back from being a star. They’ve just held him back from being historically brilliant.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 22, 2010 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions
What is the consensus on how the D-Backs handled him?
Did they rush him? Or, did they simply promote a guy with MLB talent that was simply too good for the Minors?
FWIW, “easily be the best in baseball” cannot possibly be a true statement. If he is, it won’t be easily, that is for sure.
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Jun 22, 2010 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions
They might have rushed him a little in 2007
But he was clearly ready to play everyday in the majors in 2008. Whether his 43-game stint with the club the previous season had any effect on that is unclear, but at this point I don’t really think that you could argue that they mishandled him.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 22, 2010 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Casey Crosby
Shown as going 4 IP in rookie ball (the GCL Tigers, I assume), giving up 2 R (1ER), 4H, 1BB, and 5K. No homers.
Nice to see him back.
"In the event of a significant release of oil, an accurate estimation of the spill's total volume . . . is essential in providing preliminary data to plan and initiate cleanup operations." - Page 2 of British Petroleum's regional plan for dealing with offshore oil leaks.
Seriously.
He’s a fun guy to watch; a seriously electric arm from the left side.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 22, 2010 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions
About time.
It’s been pretty much three months…I think.
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
Seems quite a few guys were held out until the GCL started before rehabbing
Casey Crosby
Manny Banuelos
Brett Lorin
I’m not sure if that’s normal or not, but it is interesting.
They were already rehabbing...
they just waited until SS started to put them in games where the stats were counted. There’s pretty much no difference between extended spring training and AZL/GCL league play.
i love the kid...
but just dropped him in my fantasy league for withrow…hoping i dont regret that one
You might, if Crosby can get healthy
Few pitchers in the minors can match Crosby’s upside, and that includes Withrow.
Obviously Withrow is healthy and more polished than Crosby at this point despite the fact that he’s a few months younger, but he’s also a fly ball pitcher with a sub-8 strikeout rate and a K-BB ratio below 2 in Double-A at the moment, which is rather underwhelming.
At 21, Withrow obviously has more time to improve his command and figure out how to miss more bats or induce more grounders, but I was hoping to see more from him this year after last season.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 22, 2010 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions
i agree
i like crosby’s upside more but figured who knows if he’ll ever be healthy
Yeah, I definitely see why you would doubt his health
The kid is 21 and was drafted out of high school in 2007, but he’s made just 28 pro starts, 24 of which came in 2009.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 22, 2010 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Hasn't Withrow had some injury problems in the past as well?
Nothing major like Crosby, but he’s had elbow issues also.
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
Oh, and
He cut his finger in a snorkeling incident. That sounds like a possible reoccurring injury.
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
Uh... when a finger cut turns into a season long elbow injury
That’s a “minus” in my book in terms of health concerns.
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He obviously has terrible scooba diving mechanics
worth noting.
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
uh oh
I not to sure about that move.
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."
by fourfingerwoo on Jun 22, 2010 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Chad Jenkins promoted to Dunedin
Looks like the Jays are ready to start moving him up. Will be interesting to see his performance away from Lansing’s apocalyptic infield D.
Not surprised, he was clearly ready for a new challenge.
I mean, look at the numbers: 3.23 FIP, 7.1 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, and a 54% groundball rate to top it all off.
That’s looking like a pretty damn good pick by the Jays right now.
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by Satchel Price on Jun 22, 2010 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm sorry
but how does a 22 year old putting up those stats in Low A ball make that look “like a pretty damn good pick” at #20 overall? Guys like Trout and Franklin picked shortly after Jenkins look “like pretty damn good pick,” not so much Jenkins, yet.
he's decent
I see him as more of a mid-rotation 3/4 starter type, but he got the job done pretty well in Lansing.
Hey, a No. 3 starter is still hugely valuable
I’m guessing that the Jays would be more than satisfied if that’s Jenkins’ future.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 22, 2010 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn't exactly say I was displeased by that
If anything, I’m one of the more floor-conscious people here.
Futures game
looks like a good crop
Although I continue to be annoyed at the restrictions placed on the rosters by the need to represent every team, along with the U.S./international thing.
It just seems wrong to have two guys from the Mariners and neither of them are last year’s No. 2 overall pick, who stands a decent chance of not being eligible for this team next year.
July 11th
The game will begin at 6:00 p.m. (EDT)/3:00 p.m. (PDT) and can be viewed live on ESPN2, ESPN2 HD and MLB.TV. XM will provide satellite radio play-by-play coverage of the XM All-Star Futures Game on XM 175 in addition to its other comprehensive live coverage from Anaheim.
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
thanks ants.
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
Look around you?
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
and just fyi, the first post should have said "thants" on the second line
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
Thanks Gore
Although Google makes me seem way smarter than I actually am.
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
But, I am really smart, regardless.
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
Brandon Belt robbed
Hosmer and Logan Morrison over Belt – give me a break.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
is this sarcasm?
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
by gore51 on Jun 22, 2010 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
they're not picked on just stats
ZOMG WHERE IS EDGAR OSUNA
baseball rules.
by doublestix on Jun 22, 2010 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Bryan Morris....somehow left off
Very strange…..considering he has had one…..one bad start ALL year.
Plus, Gorkys Hernandez made it. While he has been hot in his last twenty games, he is still batting .250, with scant power, and too many K’s, especially for a guy……with scant power.
These Futures games are quickly becoming irrelevant in terms of seeing the best/brightest players play against one another, imo.
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Jun 22, 2010 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions
The only guy
That I really wanted to see that was not selected: Aaron Miller
Maybe Fabio, just to see what he would do on that stage, could walk 5+ and plunk 2 or K them all…he is just totally without command.
Otherwise they did pretty good.
Damn, I could name several......
But, with any list, I definitely see that you are going to have to leave off some that people like. Same with prospect lists…..so I see your point.
From a Pirates perspective, it just seemed weird that Morris wasn’t on it and Gorkys was.
Anyways….I hate when people bitch about this stuff, so I will stop being ‘that guy’.
FWIW, I thought Miller should be on it as well (There I go again….).
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Jun 22, 2010 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Damn.....
That is his 3rd HBP in the last two nights, as well as the reason he sat out a week or so a couple weeks ago.
I hope it isn’t serious….any details?
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Jun 22, 2010 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions
There is another update where two fractures in the jaw have been spotted.....
This would be a HUGE blow to the timeline envisioned by most Buc fans that believe Sanchez had a shot – a pretty good shot – to be up in the majors sometime in 2011.
Brock Holt, hitting .351 and showing good range at SS at HIGH-A, is also out for the year.
I would say we are cursed….but that would excuse the awful decisions the previous regime made with alarming frequency.
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Jun 22, 2010 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm most concerned about his dreadful SB%
Hopefully the time off will give his shoulder some time to heal.
Matthew Graham
RHP A Short Season Salem-Keizer Giants
Graham was a 6th round pick from 2009 draft and will be making his debut tonight.
interesting arm
Very raw, but serious arm strength, had his fastball up into the mid-90s as a prep.
Very Odd.
My Guys: Gillies, Pacheco, Drabek, Verlander, Ozuna, A Salcedo, S Rodriguez, and others.
BriGay'd Fo Lyfe.
New Minor League Site Soon!
by cwhitman412 on Jun 22, 2010 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions
okay, I looked into it
Apparently he took some ABs while in XST as well. He hasn’t really developed as hoped as a pitcher . . .sounds like the Cubs are seriously thinking about a conversion.
Strange
Since he did pitch well this year. What are his stats this year? I haven’t looked.
My Guys: Gillies, Pacheco, Drabek, Verlander, Ozuna, A Salcedo, S Rodriguez, and others.
BriGay'd Fo Lyfe.
New Minor League Site Soon!
by cwhitman412 on Jun 22, 2010 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions
i was wondering what happened to him
but this thought had not crossed my mind
Just has to stay healthy
He could rocket up the ranks just like Teheran this year if he does prove he can stay healthy.
Noesi
Hurt? He was pulled after 3 great innings – 1 hit, 1 bb, 5 k’s.
This time of year its probably to just slow him down.
I didn’t see anything on him being hurt. He was selected for the Futures Game, I think, so maybe theyre trying to give him some extra rest…
Bullpen Banter
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No
The game was the continuation of a previously suspended game. Noesi threw those three innings in May.
by Scott Proctor Fan Club on Jun 23, 2010 1:16 AM EDT up reply actions
How would you rank the following?
Chris Archer
Trey McNutt
David Phelps
I think I'd go with this: McNutt/Phelps/Archer
It’s pretty close, though, they’re all solid C/C+ prospects.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 22, 2010 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions
ooc
archer as a c+? curious why. The scouting reports have been positive and he’s been dominant for nearly 2 months now. Am I curious how his stuff plays in AA? Of course, but with that type of performance and solid stuff, curious why C/C+.
I refuse
to own players like McNutt, Hobgood and Fister. I just won’t do it.
by Rupert Pupkin on Jun 22, 2010 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions
You Must Be The Anti Fred
He’d own all those guys just to own them.
R.I.P. Forum Account Fred.
My Guys: Gillies, Pacheco, Drabek, Verlander, Ozuna, A Salcedo, S Rodriguez, and others.
BriGay'd Fo Lyfe.
New Minor League Site Soon!
by cwhitman412 on Jun 22, 2010 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I haven't thought about where to put Phelps
but as a Cubs fan, I have it as Archer and then McNutt. I think Archer is somewhere between a B- and a B. If I had to choose one, I’d go B-. That said, his fb reportedly has better movement than last year, the curveball is still nasty, the changeup is much improved, command is better, and he’s been absolutely dominant the past month and a half.
McNutt probably has better upside. His FB is better. I think their breaking balls rate similarly. But McNutt has work to do with the change. I’d put him as a B- guy.
Supp 1st round pick Asher Wojciechowski starting for Auburn
Will probably only pitch a few innings; but will be interesting to see his debut.
i'd hope it's only a few
didn’t he throw a shit ton of innings this year in college?
baseball rules.
I like the Gb/fb ratio.
My Guys: Gillies, Pacheco, Drabek, Verlander, Ozuna, A Salcedo, S Rodriguez, and others.
I think that anyone would like an 80% groundball rate..
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 22, 2010 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions
does anyone know who pitches for Portland Monday?
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by bestbostonsports on Jun 22, 2010 7:41 PM EDT reply actions
um
Is that Portland in AA or Portland in AAA?
well?
Join the Lacrosse community at Nationallacrosseleagueblog.blogspot.com
Talk about Boston sports at http://www.bestbostonsports.com/
"That place was for diehard sports fans. I only follow my team when they're in the playoffs" - Homer Simpson
by bestbostonsports on Jun 23, 2010 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions
On Monday the 28th against Harrisburg?
Considering that Wilson got the last start in their rotation, which goes Wilson-Weiland-Fife-Kelly-Kehrt, it would appear that, lucky for you, Casey Kelly is in line to start next Monday after making his next start tomorrow night.
Not sure if the Red Sox do some things to mess around with their rotation to keep guys’ innings down or something, though. Not easy to find minor league probables for a guy that’s nearly a week from now.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 23, 2010 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions
thanks
Join the Lacrosse community at Nationallacrosseleagueblog.blogspot.com
Talk about Boston sports at http://www.bestbostonsports.com/
"That place was for diehard sports fans. I only follow my team when they're in the playoffs" - Homer Simpson
by bestbostonsports on Jun 23, 2010 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Scott Elbert update
Per BA’s Minor League Transactions:
Scott Elbert left the organization to tend to a personal family matter, according to the Dodgers.
If this is what happened, rather than him simply walking away from the team, it makes a lot more sense.
personal family matter="he got pissed off and decided to visit his family?"
Sounds like revisionist damage control.
by mrkupe on Jun 22, 2010 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
What was he so pissed about?
Did something happen? Or is it just because his command has sucked so far?
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 22, 2010 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions
the initial story was
He was not happy about something related to his demotion.
Possibly, but that just doesn't sound right
If he had immediately got pissed and left the team after being demoted, fine. However, he made a start at AAA in between being demoted and leaving.
Wait, he left the team because he got demoted back to Triple-A?
He does realize that he didn’t really deserve to stay on the ML roster, right?
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 22, 2010 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions
He only throw 2/3 of an inning
His walks have been pretty ridiculous this year, but I could see why he would be upset that he didn’t get a real look.
Yeah, but the guy is a ballplayer
If he wants a spot on the roster so bad, maybe he shouldn’t be walking 7 guys per 9 innings in freakin’ Triple-A.
Yeah, maybe LA mishandled him a little, but getting all pissed off and running home to feel bad about it really isn’t going to enamor him with the Dodgers or many other organizations. I mean, I can see why he might be a little upset, but it’s not like he was dominating Triple-A to the point where he should feel slighted, he was 1-1 with a 4.98 ERA and 32 walks in 43 innings.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 22, 2010 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Absolutely
I don’t disagree with any of that, but I could certainly see why he would be upset at the quick demotion.
He does realize that he didn’t really deserve to stay on the ML roster, right?
Anybody who can accept that easily probably doesn’t have a future in MLB.
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I suppose that's true
But Scott probably should’ve thought out his whole defection from the team a bit better, because now he just kind of looks immature from a distance.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 22, 2010 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Just Traded Brignac For Him
In a league where I have studs in all positions.
I think I went out pretty well.
My Guys: Gillies, Pacheco, Drabek, Verlander, Ozuna, A Salcedo, S Rodriguez, and others.
Funny
I was just offered Lawrie for Eric Hosmer for him.
Mulling it over
Fat man is no more,
Bursting on through Heaven's Door
Come on in, says Bill
He's adjusted to AA.
The really impressive thing is his June tear has been accompanied by a far better contact rate. Only 10 strikeouts in 84 June ABs after swinging and missing way too much in April-May.
I’m pretty bullish on Lawrie. If I were ranking today I’d probably call him a top-20 prospect, and that’s even if I was absolutely certain he’d have to move off 2B to an outfield corner. The bat’s phenomenal.
I like Lawrie a lot, but I don't think he's a Top-20 guy if he's guaranteed to move to the outfield
A big part of that is his platoon split, which has been evident throughout his professional career.
Look at his career splits:
vs. LH: .355/.411/.622, 16% K rate, 1033 OPS
vs. RH: .261/.327/.406, 22% K rate, 733 OPS
And the difference has been even bigger in 2010: 1111 OPS vs. LH, .739 OPS vs. RH
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 23, 2010 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions
A .739 for a 20 yo in AA
isn’t bad – especially if he stays at 2B.
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by OldProspects on Jun 23, 2010 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions
one concern
He has been a little lucky on his balls in play (though take minor league bip with a grain of salt), some which can be attributed to minor league defense (at least on GB), but his BABIP on line drives is way too high.
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True, it's certainly not bad
But for a guy that’s often regarded as one of the best bats in the minors, it’s not particularly good. Absolutely mashing lefties helps, but most of the very best hitting prospects in the game don’t have big RH/LH platoon splits.
Most of the top hitting prospects with platoon splits, guys like Pedro Alvarez and Ike Davis, struggled against left-handers, not right-handers. You’d like to see more from him against such a large portion of the pitching population.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 23, 2010 1:08 AM EDT up reply actions
Sure.
The L/R splits are a point well taken…until you try to apply them to this year. The sample’s just starting to get big enough for the full-season data, let alone slicing and dicing it. More importantly, Lawrie’s taken a big step forward in-season, and year-long L/R splits aren’t very informative in analyzing that breakthrough moving forward.
In general though, given his ARL, i’ll forgive being merely a league average hitter vs. same-handed pitching, especially when he puts the fear of God into lefties.
Oh, for sure
If he can be a league average hitters against RHP and an absolute monster against LHP, that makes him a well above average hitter. And at second base, that kind of offense makes him a star.
And Lawrie’s had this split for a while, he had an extremely pronounced platoon split in his full-season debut last year, and that’s continued this year. Obviously most people believe that he’ll make the proper adjustments, which is why he’s so well-regarded as a hitting prospect, but he still has work to do until he’s ready to hit MLB right-handers.
With all of that being said, I’m very bullish on Lawrie going forward.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 23, 2010 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Hey I have a question for you guys....
You like Aaron Hicks? nah
How about Max Kepler ? only 17 too raw, ok
Angel Morales, Joe Benson, Miguel Sano ? no to all above?
well heres the best of the bunch, at least he very well could be
Appy Leaguer OF Oswaldo Arcia …today he went 3-4 2B, HR, 3 RBI’s, 2 Runs
SP Adrian Salcedo pitched in the same game (quite a demotion from A+ to A-, 2 levels) but went
7 IP, 6 H , 1 ER , 2 BB , 4 SO
Wow Blackburn makes nearly identical money as Baker does now....
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jun 22, 2010 9:21 PM EDT reply actions
Better than Hicks? I'd back it off a little bit
Keith Law ranked Hicks No. 13 on his updated Top 25 a few weeks ago, and he’s routinely regarded as one of the best position player prospects in the game, with a truly monster ceiling.
We haven’t seen much of Hicks’ power yet, but he’s one of the absolute best athletes in baseball, and he’s even flashed a refined approach at the plate with a 14.7% walk rate in his minor league career so far.
From what I’ve read, Arcia sounds like a pretty impressive prospect, and he definitely deserves to be mentioned in the same breath as Morales, Benson and Kepler-Rozycki.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 22, 2010 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions
my oh my
You have much to learn about Minor League Ball, grasshopper.
Great athlete?
I don’t know that much about Aaron Hicks, but I can give you a George Foreman GUAR-ON-TEE® that Joey Gathright and Elijah Dukes were equally good athletes.
"Most overrated prospect in the minors." -- Bravesin07 on Madison Bumgarner
by criminal type on Jun 22, 2010 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions
im not over the top high on Hicks like a lot here ( and im a twins fan )
A highly inconsistent player, who is streaky.
2nd year, in the MWL, and hasn’t really improved on his 1st year at all. He’s hit around .255 or so in both years with limited power, and he can’t steal bases to save his life. He gets thrown out more than he steals.
I know he’s a + defender and has a great arm. However if the bat never comes, then it’s all for not. I’m not sold on him being a top 25 prospect at all. Maybe it will come but he’s very raw.
by hotshotschamp on Jun 22, 2010 9:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I wasn't referring to that
I was referring more to Satchel’s invocation of Keith Law’s rankings as if it were something that we’re unaware of. We know what the experts think, because most of us are pretty dedicated to following most/all things minor leagues. And we know all about how toolsy Aaron Hicks is, and how he’s regarded as a good athlete.
I mean, it kinda sounds like he thinks that we have no clue who the hell Aaron Hicks is. Which I don’t think was his intent.
I know that people here have heard of Hicks.
I just don’t know why someone would suggest that Arcia could be better than Hicks unless they either don’t know much about Hicks or are merely trying to drum up some discussion.
And that’s because everyone knows about Hicks for a reason: he’s a truly great prospect.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 22, 2010 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I think SHS was just praising the toolsy OF depth of the Twins
I don’t think he’d actually take Arcia over Hicks
On a semi-related note, If Kepler has any success this year, I think I’ll be leading that bandwagon.
Oh, I mean, Minnesota's toolsy OF depth is crazy
I suppose I’m just not a big fan of all of the hyperbolic crap or whatever..
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 22, 2010 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I mean, yeah, I suppose it's plausible that Arcia could be better than Hicks
But suggesting that you prefer Arcia would seem to reflect some sort of lack of knowledge, unless they’re just trying to get attention.
I mean, it’s not like the guy even said why he thought that Arcia could be better than one of the best outfield prospects in the minors, he just listed his numbers from today’s game. I don’t know, I thought it was peculiar.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 22, 2010 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Not Better Than Hicks
He’s not really toolsy. He’s more of a solid hitter with good power and good discipline. Extremely low k rate last year.
My Guys: Gillies, Pacheco, Drabek, Verlander, Ozuna, A Salcedo, S Rodriguez, and others.
by cwhitman412 on Jun 22, 2010 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions
doesn't have the all around tools
of Hicks.
However I’m starting to believe Hicks’s tools are getting a tad overrated. We’ve yet to see the power really, he gets caught stealing bases more than he steals them, and hitting .250 in back to back years in the MWL isn’t helping his case.
I think Arcia profiles as a corner outfielder, his body is stronger and more compact than Hicks, ….HIcks is more wirey.
Is he a better prospect/player than Hicks right now…..probably not, he’s pretty unproven. I won’t be shocked in the least though, if he goes on to have a more productive career than hicks.
by hotshotschamp on Jun 22, 2010 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed.
My Guys: Gillies, Pacheco, Drabek, Verlander, Ozuna, A Salcedo, S Rodriguez, and others.
BriGay'd Fo Lyfe.
New Minor League Site Soon!
by cwhitman412 on Jun 22, 2010 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I mean, yeah, pretty much any prospect could potentially be better than any other prospect, right?
The guy just, at least initially, seemed to be suggesting that Arcia is at least as good a prospect as Hicks, and he did it without citing any evidence at all.
I like baseball.
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by Satchel Price on Jun 22, 2010 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions
good thoughts
I think it’s all too easy to think of the minors as the top-shelf guys and then a bunch of chaff . . .it’s not really like that at all. Lots of weird things happen.
The Chaff Is My Favorite
Just look at some of my guys. And those are only a few of my manloves.
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by cwhitman412 on Jun 22, 2010 10:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I think that's a function of the public's neverending attempts to compare prospects to one another
Rather than simply looking at each prospect in isolation.
I think that sometimes people get too caught up in thinking, “Well, this prospect isn’t Carlos Santana, so it’s not really worth following him.”
When, yeah, he’s not Santana, but that doesn’t mean that he’s not a potentially very useful player.
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by Satchel Price on Jun 22, 2010 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I Have A Couple Words.
Bumgarner. Perez. Santana. Posey.
And that’s just this year.
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by cwhitman412 on Jun 22, 2010 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, Kelly.
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by cwhitman412 on Jun 22, 2010 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions
coincidence
that both of the hugely popular pairings have a Giant?
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
well, yes
It can go the other way too. Look at Matt Wieters, to use an example of a player mentioned on this site recently. Scouts loved him, and the numbers looked great too, it was a perfect marriage of scouting and sabermetrics. But sometimes those perfect marriages obscure ugly truths. I think Wieters still has a good chance to be a fine, fine player, but he had flaws in the minors that are now being exploited.
I think that part of the problem with Wieters is that he didn't have to make that many adjustments in the minors
He was so good at killing the inferior pitchers that he never really had to take the strides that are absolutely necessary when facing the world’s best pitchers.
And as anyone who’s familiar with sabermetrics and the like will tell you, you should never, ever write off a prospect of Wieters’ caliber because of an underwhelming 159-game debut. A lot of weird things can happen, even within a full season’s worth of data, particularly with a player that we didn’t know that much about before he reached the majors, at least in terms of statistical data.
I still have high hopes for Wieters, but at the same time I wasn’t totally shocked that he’s struggled.
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by Satchel Price on Jun 22, 2010 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions
If he's so good at punishing bad pitches
You’d think he’d at least be hitting some mistakes somewhere this season, but he’s been utterly TERRIBLE. There’s something completely wrong with his approach and mentality unless he has an injury. He isn’t performing up to the level he set last season based off his big league performance.
I do agree, though, that you shouldn’t write someone who has struggled like he has off. That said, the worries are… worrisome.
agreed stevehoffman
I’m EXTREMELY high on Arcia, and have him as a top twins prospect.
He’s got good size, he’s built. He hits for power, doesn’t K much. Arcia will be put on the map this year.
Agreed
Loved him last year, due to the fact at 18 he was 1k/10 at bats.
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by cwhitman412 on Jun 22, 2010 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Rudy Owens
7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BBs, 5 Ks
I had a long post written up about his background/season thus far but it got erased. Therefore:
22 yrs old
83 IP, 63 K (124/113 last year in A/High A)
6 HR, 16 BBs
Above-average control, trying to learn a two-seamer, good yakker, differing points on his velo (probably 89-92). Might not miss bats in Majors, but his control and feel for pitching are reportedly pretty solid. And, those K/9 numbers aren’t awful, with last years numbers being in the high 8.0’s if I am dividing correctly.
Anyways, I see quality #3 SP in his future, with a possible ceiling of #2 if he can add the 2-seamer and miss enough bats. Probably will be up in Triple-A before long, along with Bryan Morris and possibly (least likely of three) Justin Wilson.
Thoughts?
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Jun 22, 2010 11:23 PM EDT reply actions
I think Zach Duke.....
Would definitely be his floor, after his performance this year at Double-A, age 22. I definitely see that as a possibility, but I am inclined to believe that he has a better career than Duke at this point. Duke is largely Batting Practice any more, with an occasional start here and there that makes you think he could be a good #4/#5. In reality, he is a pitch-to-contact pitcher, which in his instance, is translation ‘BP pitcher’.
I think Owens outperforms Duke, maybe a better Paul Maholm or similar to Maholm, with a John Danks-type being his ceiling if everything goes right……
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Jun 22, 2010 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions
At this point you are relying solely on numbers
Take a look at what Zach Duke did in the minors. I think they are very similar and I’d be happy if he proves as durable an inning eater as Duke.
indeed
I’d guess he misses more bats (because really, who could miss FEWER bats than Zach Duke?), but Duke’s still eaten a decent number of innings in the majors and has posted a couple of seasons with a decent ERA. Eating innings is not a skill to be dismissed lightly; you can make a good argument that major league teams end up paying more for that skill in starting pitchers than any other skill.
Nope....
I am relying on numbers and what I have seen from him in person.
I like his chances to be more than an inning eater. I can see you being right, but I simply see more out of him than Duke.
We shall see….
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Jun 23, 2010 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Beavan
I looked at the stats and immidiately thought of Blake Beavan. Anyone know how the two compare? Some of the people that cover the rangers have said he will need to develop another pitch as he moves up, possibly a cutter. Here are Beavan’s numbers:
21 yrs old
97.1 IP, 63K, 12BB, 4HR, 2.50 era, 84 hits, .99 whip
Here is where he ranks in the Texas league:
IP 1st
WHIP 1st
Wins 1st
ERA 2nd
K 5th
Only Reason About The K's
Is the amount of innings he’s pitched.
That’s an awful K/BB ratio
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K/IP I mean.
My Guys: Gillies, Pacheco, Drabek, Verlander, Ozuna, A Salcedo, S Rodriguez, and others.
BriGay'd Fo Lyfe.
New Minor League Site Soon!
But it is a stellar K/BB ratio
His margin for error is small, but if is only walking one batter per 9 and has the fewest baserunners in the league he can succeed. Tewksbury is my favorite example of a guy with a low K but stellar BB rate, I can see Beavan doing that.
Freude schöner Götterfunken, Tochter aus Elysium, Freude!
Domnation Brown
3-4, 2 HR, SO [who cares?]
CHisenhall, 1-3, BB
T Frazier, 1-4, HR, SO
ALonso, 1-4, HR
T Darnaud, 2-6, 2 SO, doubleheader
Barnese, 7 IP, 3 H, R, 2 SO
T-Bex, 0-6, 3 SO, SB [doubleheader]
ugh
Is it okay for me to say that I’m not really pleased with the way things are going for Tim Beckham yet?
He isn't a bust
Your dead on that it is far too soon for that label. But, his stock isn’t up, and if the move to third does happen, that will kill his value. I don’t believe he had enough bat to be a league average 3B, but only time will tell.
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He's not a bust yet, but he's on his way
Let’s be honest: if he ends up being a league average player, you kind of should consider that a bust from a No. 1 overall pick, even if we’ve seen time and time again that No. 1 picks are subject to the same wackiness as other prospects.
It’s not so much that Beckham has been horrific so far, but go down the list of guys that were drafted after him. You’d definitely take Beckham over Kyle Skipworth, David Cooper and Josh Fields, and there are a lot of guys that you obviously take over Beckham now too, but I wonder if the Rays would prefer someone like Andrew Cashner (No. 19 to CHC) or Ike Davis (No. 18) if they had the chance.
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by Satchel Price on Jun 23, 2010 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions
He is on his way
But there is still time for an unpolished toolsy high school 1st rounder to turn it around. That said, I’ve always taken flack for being low on Beckham. The bat and defense don’t impress me alone or together as a package.
If the Rays could pick again they would take Alvarez, I believe.
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I can see that. I suppose it'd be Alvarez or Posey.
Man, picture an everyday lineup of Posey, Pena, Zobrist, Longoria, Bartlett, Crawford, Upton and Jennings, and then you can figure out what to do with Rodriguez, Joyce, Aybar, Brignac, Perez and Jaso.
Obviously hindsight is 20-20, but Tampa has to be somewhat disappointed.
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by Satchel Price on Jun 23, 2010 1:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Brignac would (hopefully) be starting instead of Bartlett
but yes, Posey would have been nice. Closer prospect, at a position of need, a recognizable collegiate athlete in his home state, and I bet wouldn’t have been that hard to sign easily. I was on the Alvarez bandwagon coming into that draft, but either would have worked. I like Beckham, and the tools are there, but there were better options available.
ugh, here we go.
again.
1- rays don’t draft for need with the #1 pick.
2- beckham has legit power, and a legit arm for SS. he’s lost his ‘fresham 15’ too
3- where would Alvarez be playing right now? he’s not better than Pena or Longoria, and some may think he could DH, which ok, maybe he could, but I happen to not be as high on him as others… and I think someone like Matt Joyce or Hank Blalock could do just as well value-wise at the DH… so what is the point of him being a “closer prospect, at a position of need”?
4- of course Posey would be nice… and he is at a valuable position at least, [unlike alvarez and smoak]… so he’s the only one I could see the Rays being ‘upset about passing on’…. but honestly, is he gonna put up more WAR than Jaso this year? and I think the Rays’ scouts must have questioned whether he was going to stay at catcher… who knows, maybe they just didn’t like him as much as Beckham…
5- either way, this is such a moot argument for a team that has drafted probably better than anyone else over the past decade.
So there 2008 top pick isn’t in MLB yet and several of the players chosen after him are. big whoop. they haven’t done bupkiss yet. wait til one of them becomes a great player and then we can talk about regrets. as it stands, I’m still not sold on Alvarez hitting in MLB, or Smoak living up to his hype. and Alvarez’ 2-20 start, with 8/2 K/BB is not making me any kind of believer. sure its SSS, but so is Tim Beckham with a healthy wrist.
Relax
1. You can draft Posey/Beckham/Alvarez or whomever without drafting for need. Lets be honest here, Dave. Beckham wasn’t the best player in that draft, so if it wasn’t for need, it was to sign for slot (which is fine either way).
2. He may have a legit arm and legit power. But he may also have diminishing range that moves him off the potion and power that isn’t yet usable in games. Range is far more important than arm strength at short stop, imo.
3. That quote from SP was about Posey. But still, if they Rays aren’t drafting for need then they take Alvarez or Posey both of which have options for the team. Not my favorite idea but Alvarez could be prepared to play first after Pena leaves as a FA, or he could be traded and his value is very high (far higher than Beckham).
4.I think your really missing how large the gap is between Beckham and the other players we’re mentioning. Given the choice today you wouldn’t swap Beckham for Alvarez or Smoak? Of course you would, and so would the Rays.
5. They have drafted really well. And it is a moot point because nothing can be changed now. The Rays have been fantastic. But that doesn’t mean they did make the wrong decision here, even if it is the outlier.
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+1...
I’ve seen these discussions floating around this site for a while, and I can’t see how any objective observer could look back and say the Rays made the right decision. Posey, Alvarez, and Beckham were all in the mix for #1, so it’s not like one was a stretch over another.
They took who they felt was the best player for their organization at the time. I believe they made what they felt was the smart decision based on their draft history. But sometimes it hits, sometimes it misses. But to say if they could do it all over again, they would taken Beckham, is a stretch. It’s like saying people who passed on Lincecum would still pass on him even knowing how it turned out. Just doesn’t make sense to me.
Beckham’s not a bust, but he’s not Posey or Alvarez either.
Poster formerly known as artie
I don't think it was a terrible decision
Nor is it at all going to look out of place compared to other early picks or other first overalls. We all know going in it never turns out exactly how you think it will.
I also don’t know you can say they decided to cheap it by going Beckham nor that they though Becks was the BPA. Its somewhere in between, IMO. I think they had Beckham as one of the elite prospects in the draft AND they felt a couple other of the elite guys were not worth what they were asking for. Its a perfectly reasonable position. It may turn out they regret it but I certainly thought it was defensible at the time, even though I’m not really a Beckham guy.
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Not what I was saying...
I said, at the time, all three were justifiable #1 picks, Beckham wasn’t a money pick.
But, at the same time, dave33 and other’s arguments seem to be that the Rays aren’t upset they passed on Alvarez or Posey, either because they feel Pena and Longoria would block Alvarez or that Jaso will have a WAR equal to Posey.
Bottom line is that if the Rays knew what they knew now there’s no way they would’ve picked Beckham over Posey or Alvarez. That’s what JD is saying, and I agree. I don’t see how one could make a reasonable argument to the contrary.
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Bottom line is that if the Rays knew what they knew now there’s no way they would’ve picked Beckham over Posey or Alvarez.
I would have to say I agree as well. I’m just saying that we should try not to be overly critical of stuff like this. I wasn’t disagreeing with… just adding on to your point.
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Absolutely, the Rays appeared to have the right process while picking Beckham, and that's what's most important
It just didn’t work out as they had hoped, which just sort of happens in this world.
But the idea that, if the Rays could back and re-select the No. 1 pick with all of the data and information that they have now, they’d pick Beckham again, is simply laughable.
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by Satchel Price on Jun 23, 2010 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Didn't Beckham get a higher bonus than Alvarez or Posey?
How could it have been a money decision?
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by OldProspects on Jun 23, 2010 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I don't see how money factors into this
Beckham signed for a $6.15M bonus, while Alvarez took a $6M bonus and Posey got the most of the three, but hardly, at $6.2M.
In the end, it appears that the Rays simply believed that Beckham was the best prospect going forward, and they simply misevaluated the situation.
These things happen, even to some of the most efficient and best-scouting organizations in the game.
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by Satchel Price on Jun 23, 2010 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Okaaay
That does help, but ultimately the gains from inflation aren’t that significant. I agree with Satchel, that they seem to think that Beckham was legitimately the best prospect
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by OldProspects on Jun 23, 2010 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions
right
But Beckham has changed a lot over the last 3-4 years. In high school, he was a potential plus defender at SS and a bat that projected to be high-average, good gap power with the projection to add to that, to go along with plus-plus speed.
Now? He’s lost a lot of that speed but has realized a fair amount of that power potential. Jury is still out on his defense but it’s most likely not going to be as good as once thought. And I’m pretty skeptical that the average is going to be there.
He hasn’t exactly gone Chris Lubanski on us, but he’s the latest reminder of when it comes to prep prospects, you often don’t get what you pay for, good or bad.
Sorry, I meant
“seemed to have thought that Beckham was the best prospect.”
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by OldProspects on Jun 23, 2010 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Absolutely he seems like the least impressive prospect now
That being said, it wouldn’t astonish me that it ultimately seems closer than it does
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by OldProspects on Jun 23, 2010 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions
this is kind of the point.
according to the 2010 top prospect lists… they made the wrong choice… but Beckham is 20 years old… and he’s not terrible… his walk rate has nearly doubled. his power is way up. and I’m not sold he’s losing speed, as his SBs are way up… maybe just his baserunning has improved or something… not sure.
and re: Beckham’s range… all hindsight, bros… there weren’t these questions in 2008
Yeah, he's not terrible relative to other SS prospects
But he’s rather underwhelming compared to the players picked around him, no?
Yeah, the 4% increase in his walk rate is nice, but he’s only raised his ISO like 40 points. He could probably stand to stop hitting the ball into the ground so much, and he pops up a lot more than you’d like.
The point is that the Rays thought that Beckham was the best prospect at the time, which is fine, but he’s not at this point. Which doesn’t mean that the Rays necessarily made the wrong decision picking him, we can’t reasonably say that yet.
But what we can say is that based on the information that we have now, it does appear likely that the Rays made the wrong decision in picking Beckham.
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by Satchel Price on Jun 24, 2010 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions
well ok
“But what we can say is that based on the information that we have now, it does appear likely that the Rays made the wrong decision in picking Beckham.”
i just don’t see why this is worth arguing over so much…. and why is Beckham constantly compared to the guys who were picked around him, instead of other HS SS’s? It’s just weird to me
Because that's how people think. if you haven't noticed by now
The whole idea of thinking about what could of been is just kind of a natural thing for people to do.
Beckham was a perfectly fine pick at the time, a lot of people considered him a very legitimate No. 1 overall pick relative to other prospects in that draft.
It’s just natural for people to be disappointed when they see how well other prospects picked after him are doing.
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by Satchel Price on Jun 24, 2010 1:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Do you know what about his swing causes him to pop up against right-handers so much, but never against lefties?
Just look at his infield fly rates for 2009 and 2010.
In 2009, he popped up against right-handers 13.2% of the time and this season that mark is up to 16.4%.
But what about his infield fly rate against lefties? ZERO. Nil. 0%.
I haven’t seen him ever, so I don’t know if it’s in his swing or his approach or what, but it definitely stood out to me while scanning over his track record.
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by Satchel Price on Jun 22, 2010 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Its really not that hard to see a Hosmer like turn around for him IMO
We shall see.
His stock is still down with me because of negative reports in terms of tools and the ever strengthening possibility he ends up at 3B (where he would still be a very good prospect, but not quite the elite guy he would be at SS).
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why is it ever-strengthening?
are there current reports on his D/range from the past 2 months that I haven’t seen?
I suppose not...
fair point.
I was thinking more from draft to last year to this year…
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Does anyone know when minor league TotalZone data becomes available, either on MinorLeagueSplits or B-R?
Because TotalZone hated Beckham’s work at shortstop.
Sean Smith’s system had Beckham at -4 in his first 48 games with the team in 2008, and -15 in 125 games last year in his full-season debut. Unless he takes some serious strides as a defender, which wouldn’t seem particularly likely especially if he fills out more, he likely ends up at the hot corner.
Beckham certainly isn’t a bust yet, but I’m guessing that the Rays would rather have Buster Posey, Brian Matusz, Pedro Alvarez or Justin Smoak.
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by Satchel Price on Jun 23, 2010 12:39 AM EDT up reply actions
ok, don't call him a bust
and please quit the “Rays would rather have Pedro/Buster/Smoak” thanks… they had their reasons for drafting him, and we’ve been over this ad naseum. not sure if you were part of those arguments or not Satchel, but the arguments have been laid out. no need for another sub-thread on them
Uh, I didn't call him a bust
I mean, I’m relatively new to the comments here even though I’ve read the site for a couple years and I’ve been with BtB for months now, so I’m pretty much positive that I missed those discussions. Didn’t mean to rehash anything that’s been firmly established by anyone else.
Frankly, I just started coming over here because I love the community here, I really wish that we could get something like that going at BtB. One thing at a time, though, I suppose. There aren’t a lot of places that have readerships as educated and up for discussion as this one, particularly on SBN. And we all know that SBN’s commenting system is pretty sick, too.
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by Satchel Price on Jun 23, 2010 1:15 AM EDT up reply actions
re: u calling him a bust
yeah i know you didn’t, i should’ve said “in addition to ppl who need to stop calling him a bust”… etc
when does brown
get promoted to AAA??? Seems like there isnt much to prove at AA
Yup, the monster power is back, he's got a .285 ISO this year
But the improved walk rate is more impressive to me, maybe. The guy walked 26 times in 500 plate appearances last season, about 5.2% of the time. This year, he’s already walked 19 times in 250 plate appearances, about 7.6% of the time.
His strikeout rate is still in the 23-24% range, but he’s seen his BABIP rise from .267 to .317, and he’s hitting for more power this season, too. And as we’ve seen many a time, if you’re a solid defensive catcher with plus power and a willingness to take pitches, you can generally make it in the bigs even if your batting like .230-.250 every year.
It’ll be very interesting to see if Arencibia or Travis d’Arnaud or someone else (Carlos Perez??) ends up as the team’s long-term primary catcher.
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by Satchel Price on Jun 23, 2010 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Jason Castro
Went 1/4 with one strikeout in his big league debut (three at bats against Lincecum, one against Wilson). The hit was a clean LD single up the middle in his first AB against Timmy.
He also threw out two baserunners attempting to steal.
Moose
3-5, HR, 2B, BB
both his extra base hits were oppo, another thing he’s improved this year.
baseball rules.
Moose Is Stud
Top 10 for me easily.
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Agreed, he's moved up a lot this year
He’s vaulted way ahead of Vitters.
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by Satchel Price on Jun 23, 2010 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Love The Bat
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David Holmberg
5 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 SO
One to watch. 2nd round pick last year.
velocity
The heater is going to be the decider for him. I’m expecting the secondaries to be perfectly acceptable if not better, and the command should definitely be there.
The Twins seem to love guys like that, don't they?
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by Satchel Price on Jun 24, 2010 1:33 AM EDT up reply actions
they do, yes
Unfortunately, Holmberg is more likely to pitch against them than for them, as he was actually drafted by the White Sox. :)
Shoot, I got David Holmberg and David Bromberg mixed up
Either way, Bromberg is another one of those pitchability kind of guys, too, so I suppose I wasn’t totally off base.
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by Satchel Price on Jun 24, 2010 1:54 AM EDT up reply actions
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