The Next Great Rotation
by bflobraves on Jun 18, 2010 9:48 PM EDT
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PrintHello I will admit right now I am an Atlanta Braves fan, but this isn't at all biased. I'm gonna talk about the Atlanta Braves young MLB pitchers and their incredible pitching prospects.
The list is gonna start off with the young MLB pitchers
Jair Jurrjens- I love this kid. He had a 3.68 ERA in his first year and when many scouts said he'll regress his next year he threw up a 2.60 ERA. He has had an injury this season but when he returns from that he'll be right back on top. He is a Boras client so I don't know if the Braves will be able to re-sign him but he will be a solid pitcher with the Braves until atleast 2012.
Tommy Hanson- Nasty. Big tall pitcher with mid 90's fastball and just plain filthy sliders and curveballs. He'll be the Braves ace until 2013 when he'll leave the team to go play for the Yankees(another Boras client). But for the time being I will just sit back and admire Big Red be the ace of my Bravos pitching squad.
Kris Medlen- After a shacky 2009 season, Medlen has been fantastic in 2010. Filling in for the injured Jurrjens, Medlen has let in few runs and strukeout many. Although Medlen is a little guy(5"11) he has a nice fastball(low 90's) with a awesome changeup. Medlen will be an extremely solid Long Relief Pitcher/Spot Starter his entire career and can be a very valuable player wherever he plays.
Now The Prospects...
Julio Teheran- Maybe the best prospect in the minors right now. If not he is a top 5 prospect and a top 3 pitching prospect. He throw high 90's with a great breakingball and changeup. He is only 19 so he'll be in the minors for another 2 years at least. Teheran has dominated Low and High Class A this season with a below 1.50 ERA and has many strikeouts. Teheran will become the Braves ace when/if Tommy Hanson leaves. He will likely be the #1 prospect by the time he gets called up in 2011-2012 if he keeps up the pace.
Randal Delgado- Very Fluid motion that will likely keep his arm healthy and strong. He has been fantastic for Myrtle Beach this year and will be a strong middle rotation starter. He throws mid 90's with nice offspeed stuff and will likely come a year after Teheran
Aroydys Vizcaino- One of the players Atlanta got from the Vazquez deal. I've loved this trade the second we made it(unlike many Braves fans who wanted to keep Vazquez, i wanted JV gone) and Vizcaino has been very good in Low Class A this year. He also throws mid 90's with plus breakingball, needs to work on his changeup though.
Mike Minor- Nothing like the other 3 prospects as he is American, 3 years older than them, ready for the MLB, a draft pick, and he isn't a power pitcher. Minor could be up by late season, but early 2011 is more likely. He has been shakey in AA, sometimes going 7IP with 12 K's and 0 runs, other game going 4IP with 6 runs. Minor isn't a power pitcher but he is a well needed LHP for the Braves
Everyone of these prospects will likely be a top 50 prospect next year and Teheran has a good chance to be a top 5 prospect.
If I had to rank them i'd put them...
1. Teheran
2. Vizcaino
3. Delgado
4. Minor
Along with Jason Heyward to build the team around, these pitchers will make all Atlanta Fans like me very very happy in up coming years
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hey we have some nice prospects!
:P
just more of a general statement. hard to expect most of these guys to pan out. gotta accumulate tons of pitching prospects and then only some will pan out. nature of the game.
baseball rules.
ya well ya messed Alex Gordon up somehow...
but you do have Hosmer and Moustakas who are both top 20 prospects IMO
OJ didn't do it
haven't completely given up on Gordon yet
no reason to. just needs a chance! great #’s at AAA.
baseball rules.
and myers and montgomery
Moose-Montgomery-Myers will all be top-25, maybe top-15 guys at the end of the year
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
any word on that injury?
The last thing I have is
Left-handed starter Mike Montgomery, a first-round pick from 2008, still hasn’t pitched in a game since exiting a start early with elbow soreness on May 27. Moore has called it tricep tightness and said it’s not serious.from http://royalsblog.kansascity.com/?q=node/551
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
went back on the DL yesterday
with more elbow soreness.
they are still saying nothing looks that serious. but i’m concerned obviously.
baseball rules.
A few things
ERA to validate the success of Jurrjens? He is a very good pitcher, but his low ERA isn’t why.
If you are going to go into Braves pitching prospects you could go lower into J.J. Hoover, Robinson Lopez, Zeke Spruill, who are all good prospects in their own right. Vizcaino, Delgado, and Teheran are still far away. There is a decent chance any and all of them fail, but there is deep pitching in their system, undeniably. I have Teheran, Delgado, Minor, Vizcaino in my top 10-35 range right now (still not sure where to put Minor, haven’t given it enough thought).
hoover, lopez, spruill are nothing compared to these guys, they’d all be lucky to be #5 starters…and there is no way all of them are failures
OJ didn't do it
Lopez
I think a lot would disagree with Lopez lucky to be a #5. He has very good stuff and is very projectable. I like him a lot.
by smscardinals1 on Jun 18, 2010 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Lopez I would bet has a better chance to be a better pitcher, but also a higher bust rate
I wouldn’t be so far down on Hoover, Spruill, Lopez.
by Navi's_Navy on Jun 19, 2010 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Minor kind of is...
a power pitcher with his increase in velocity. Rather, he has power stuff that he uses like a finesse pitcher(if that makes sense).
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
power stuff and a finesse pitcher
sounds like the next strasburg or something
Who loves orange soda?
by Kenan and Kel on Jun 19, 2010 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Hmmmm
I am wondering why this is the first I have heard of these guys.
:)
do i smell sarcasm? anyways most know about teheran, but not too many about delgado, minor, and vizzy
OJ didn't do it
well, bravitos posted on this website
so that means he fits into the category of “most here”
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
bravitos knows about those guys
He was being sarcastic. He owns Delgado in the two fantasy leagues I run, as well as Lopez in one of them. He’s very, very high on Lopez from what I remember from some of his posts here.
http://bullpenbanter.com
Not positive but I think you're wrong about Hanson
I’ve never heard that he’s a Boras client and after a quick google search I can’t find anything that links the two.
R.I.P Jazz #6
Not to mention he won't be a free agent until after the 2015 season
Not 2013 as implied by the OP
2015? seems later than expected
but i believe he is a boras client, and i find him to be a guy who cares more about money than anything, and as much as i love him i think he’d look good in pinstripes
OJ didn't do it
Why?
Last year was his first year and he didn’t get enough days of service time for it to count towards the 6 needed to reach free agency. He won’t even qualify for super 2 status, so even arbitration won’t start until after the 2012 season.
Not sure what makes you think he cares about money more than anything else. It wouldn’t surprise me by any means, but I don’t see any reason to assume that’s the case.
well, there is no arguing with that
I get it, he’s a very good young pitcher and with that, there is always the possibility the Yankees pick him up at some point, but “i look t him and watch him pitch and he looks like a future yankee…” is the reason you’re giving? Come on man. Also, I’d really like you to find me something connecting him and Boras because I have never heard anyone even mention that before — much less see it from a reputable source.
R.I.P Jazz #6
i've seen it numerous places before
i wouldnt be surprised at all if he left for NYY and then blew out his arm
OJ didn't do it
I'm skeptical
Wikipedia, Cots baseball contracts, and mlbtr all don’t have them on their list of boras clients. I’m about 95% sure you’re wrong about the boras connection but feel free to prove me wrong.
R.I.P Jazz #6
by was385 on Jun 20, 2010 5:44 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
If you are looking at the next great rotation, you should look league wide
and not limit yourself to examining one team, nor concluding with 1 team (as there can be several great rotations at the same time).
Also, define what a great rotation is.
To me, a Great Rotation is at minimum 3 Aces (a playoff rotation), an Up and Coming Ace (the top prospect that will be an ace), and at least a #3 Starter pretending to be the #5. Ideally, a Great Rotation is composed of 5 Aces, but thats limiting it a lot for this exercise.
The real trick to a great rotation is getting everyone up at the same time, because generally a team will have a great pitcher, maybe even two, but by the time they are established and the next couple are ready to come up, they’re gone.
So
What are odds of at least two or three of those guys flaming out within the next two seasons? Then what are the odds of those that do survive the attrition rates that you have to expect with minor league arms, that never really reach their potential in the major leagues?
Personally, I would only put my money on no more than two of that group ever living up to anywhere near their current projected ceiling.
Minor is probably the only safe bet out of those four of pitching in a starting rotation for a major league for more than five or six seasons.
Albert Pujols is a god, and you my friend should be doing no less than groveling at his feet.
Delgado?
scouts say his motion is so fluid that it is extremely unlikely he’ll blow it out
OJ didn't do it
I think it is safe to say the Braves have one of the best 1-2 homegrown combos in the game
rivaling Timmy/Cain, Kershaw/Billingsley, and the Rays(you could take almost any two pitchers from their staff and make a good argument lol)
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jun 20, 2010 3:29 AM EDT reply actions
wasnt saying they were the only combos
Also, Buccholz hasnt been in the majors long enough to be on the level of some of the others(look at Porcello last year from this year…)
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jun 20, 2010 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I should have said level of consistency over multiple MLB seasons
hitters can adjust amazingly when given multiple looks at a pitcher
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jun 20, 2010 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I mean, pitchers can make adjustments, too.
Buchholz has drastically improved since his arrival a couple years ago. He’s added velocity, particularly to his power slider, and given his whiff and contact rates he should have a better K rate than he currently does.
He goes to his fastball a lot in two-strike counts, which leads to less strikeouts but more groundballs given the movement on his fastball. But he has the breaking stuff to miss bats, so it wouldn’t be remotely surprising to see some improvement in his K rate from here.
Although there’s still a good deal of healthy regression in his 2.67 ERA.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 20, 2010 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
His ERA last year
was 4.21, backed with a 4.69 FIP and 4.09 xFIP. This year, he is at 2.67, with a 3.43 FIP and a 4.21 xFIP. He has magically cut his HRs from 1.27/9 to .32/9. His walks have increased and his Ks have declined. Also, his tERA has gone from 3.70 to 4.59. Basically, he has gotten REALLY lucky with the HRs and is no where as good as his 2.67 ERA shows…
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jun 20, 2010 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Looked like Rays from the get go
Now its DEFINATELY starting to even out
pretty much 55-45 or 50-50 Rays, Twins….
Wow Blackburn makes nearly identical money as Baker does now....
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jun 20, 2010 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Braves have probably one of the best hyped homegrown 1-2 combos in the game
I don’t know if you can actually say best, not even in their own division. According to their 2010 WAR, I’m counting at least ten pairs that are better right now:
Giants: Timmy/Cain 5.0
Twins: Baker/Liriano(I’m giving Minnesota the credit there) 4.9
Marlins: Johnson/Sanchez 4.8
Blue Jays: Romero/Marcum 4.7
Giants: Lester/Buchholz 4.6
Rockies: Jimenez/Chacin 4.4
Tigers: Verlander/Bonderman 3.9
Dodgers: Kershaw/Billingsley 3.2
Cubs: Wells/Marshall 3.0
Rays: Price/Shields 3.0
Braves: Hanson/Medlen 2.8
It’s hard to say any of those combos ahead of the Braves right now (except for maybe the Cubs, who will probably stagnate there) are going to be appreciably worse than the Braves in the coming two or three seasons. I know Bonderman’s possibly a loss for the Tigers after this year, but the rest are pretty secure with their teams contract-wise as far as I’m aware. The Braves have some stud pitching prospects, but they’re not the only team in that camp, either.
Pretty sure he was talking about Hanson and Jurrjens
Jurrjens has been right around 4 WAR the past 2 seasons, and Hanson seems to be on his way to a 4.5 to 5 WAR season this year.
I doubt it, Jurrjens isn't homegrown
I think it is safe to say the Braves have one of the best 1-2 homegrown combos in the game
I was only counting players that spent a significant part of their development phase in their teams’ minor league systems, your definition of that might be different than mine. At any rate, Jurrjens would still represent a substantial risk to me. If I were a GM, I don’t know if I’d trade any of those combos save for the Cubs two pitchers for the Braves pair.
This idea that Jurrjens isn't very good is a joke
Even in Fangraphs WAR, which is scaled to FIP, not ERA, he’s nearly a 4 WAR pitcher. He finished 23rd in the majors in pitcher WAR last season. In 2008 he was 31st. He showed the ability to handle a 215 innings workload as a 23 year old. Sure, he’s not an ace, but he appears to be a young pitcher that can handle 200+ innings a year while posting a sub 4 ERA. He’s a very good #2/#3 pitcher. There is a lot of value in that.
Also, I wasn’t trying to imply that Jurrjens was homegrown, just that I assume that’s who LDY4L was talking about when he initially started this little discussion. If he believes that Hanson and Medlen are one of the top few homegrown 1-2’s in baseball, then even as a Braves fan, I disagree.
No, I wasn't joking.
Jurrjens is valuable as a young, cheap guy whose true talent is a ~4.00 ERA, but he’s not nearly as good as some people think. He’s certainly nowhere near an ace.
Like I pointed out
His combination of FIP and IP made him a top 25-35 pitcher by Fangraphs WAR. While that may not be true ace level, it is better than the #1 guy on a few teams as well as most #2 guys in baseball.
He posted FIP of 3.59 and 3.68 in his 22 and 23 year old seasons. There is no reason to think his true talent is ~4.00 ERA unless you simply want to dismiss the idea that some pitchers have a measure of control over their HR/FB rates.
Don't you worry about the drop in GB rate though?
He was at 51.5% in 2008, but plummeted down to 42.9% in 2009. And it’s not like he missed more bats to make up for it, his contact rate was up and his whiff rate was down.
I definitely think Jurrjens is a solid No. 2/3 starter, but he’s not really an ace-type pitcher with a ~2 K/BB ratio unless his GB rate is rather insane (which it isn’t). Plus, he hasn’t been healthy this year either, which is always a concern with a 24-year-old pitcher coming off a two-year span where he pitched more than 400 innings in the majors.
And this comes from a guy that likes JJ a lot.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 24, 2010 1:42 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm not quite sure what to make of last season
His components were down for the most part, but at he same time he had a significant drop in tERA largely based on the drop in his LD rate. As I said, his FIP was also still quite good. I think he’s the sort of guy we’ll have to wait a few more seasons to really understand.
I don’t think the current injury should a worry at all either. Its a hamstring pull that he made worse by running on it while trying to comeback. The shoulder soreness at the beginning of ST was a little worrying, but it was supposedly just inflammation and could easily be attributed to restarting his pitching routine after the offseason. Still, I think the hamstring injury could be a blessing in disguise as it will keep his innings down this season.
I was talking about Jurrjens
and have since realized he isnt homegrown. My bad.
But to say JJ isnt very good is crazy. He isnt an ace. He is an innings eater who will have an ERA in the the 3s. He will be a 2 or 3 for a while if he can stay healthy
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jun 23, 2010 1:31 AM EDT up reply actions
A's
i’d put Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill in this 1/2 talk
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."
Agreed.
Cahill’s metrics have yet to match his ERA’s, while Anderson is obviously a stud but he’s had trouble staying healthy this season.
Definitely a contender going forward, but I wouldn’t put them at the top yet.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 20, 2010 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Is there anyone who would be willing to vote for Strasburg/Zimmermann?
Strasburg is obviously Strasburg, and Zimmerman is close to returning from TJS after establishing himself as one of the game’s best young pitchers last season. This duo could emerge.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
Not yet, at all
I know the Strasburg hype is huge… but it has been 3 starts. An amazing 3 starts, but 3 stars. Hell, he spent, what, 3 months in the minors? No team got a shot to look at him more than once or maybe twice. To be on a list like this, they should have over a year of success(the reason guys like Buccholz shouldnt be included yet). Add that Zimmermann is coming off TJS, and the Nats are in the talk, at least not yet
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jun 20, 2010 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Stras Is For Real.
My Guys: Gillies, Pacheco, Drabek, Verlander, Ozuna, A Salcedo, S Rodriguez, and others.
Seriously.
I understand someone questioning Zimmermann’s health or his ability to come back all the way.
But you’re going to question Strasburg? Seriously, go watch any of his three starts so far. I don’t know if we’ve ever seen a pitcher quite like him.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 20, 2010 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I was not trying to say he isnt for real
And I feared someone would take it that way. I was saying that 3 months in the minors plus 3 starts in the majors isnt enough for me to have him be part of this conversation, let alone when his partner is out with TJS
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jun 20, 2010 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions
The recovery rate for TJS is really, really good now
And this guy put up a 3.39 xFIP in 16 starts with the Nats last season before having the surgery. I’m still optimistic.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 20, 2010 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
It is still a scary procedure for any pitcher
Especially one that is very young. He needs to come back to the majors to be part of this conversation, IMO
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jun 20, 2010 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions
they are a great duo, but not as great as some of the aforementioned duos right now
I will say this, in a couple years, one of the best duos will be Seattle. King Felix-Michael Pineda will be scary good.
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
also, if you are willing to count Anibal Sanchez or Ricky Nolasco as homegrown
then the Marlins could be mentioned. They might not have the best 1-2, but there 1-2-3 is great, Johnons-Nolasco-Sanchez
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
Nolasco isn't missing nearly as many bats this year, and Sanchez has benefited a lot from a low HR/FB this year
Johnson is a beast, but until Nolasco’s big strikeout numbers return or Sanchez can take another step forward (he’s more of a No. 3 or 4 guy right now), there are multiple duos that I’d quickly take over them.
Plus, they aren’t all that young, Sanchez and Johnson are 26 and Nolasco is 27.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 20, 2010 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions
cant wait for zimmerman's return
just looking at his career WHIP, it’s mind boggling
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."
by fourfingerwoo on Jun 20, 2010 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't get too caught up in WHIP
Consider that one of its primary components is hits allowed, which is greatly out of the pitcher’s control, it’s not really a great reflection of a pitcher’s skill or past value.
Go with xFIP or SIERA, although obviously those aren’t really available for minor leaguers.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 20, 2010 8:42 PM EDT up reply actions
good write up
If they all pan out, they could make an amazing rotation. I would switch Delgado and Vizcaino in the ranking, but this was well written.
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