My Top 50 Prospects
Here we go with my top 50 prospects after the draft
1. Bryce Harper A OF Washington Nationals 26. Tony Sanchez B+ Pittsburgh Pirates
2. Pedro Alvarez A 3B Pittsburgh Pirates 27. Logan Morrison B+ 1B Florida Marlins
3. Jeremy Hellickson A RHP Tamba Bay Rays 28. Freddie Freeman B+ 1B Atlanta Braves
4. Dom Brown A- OF Philidelphia Phillies 29. Nicholas Weglarz B+ OF Cleveland Indians
5. Desomond Jennings A- OF Tampa Bay Rays 30. Arodys Vizcaino B+ RHP Atlanta Braves
6. Mike Moustakas A- 3B Kansas CIty Royals 31. Aaron Hicks B+ OF Minnesota Twins
7. Mike Trout A- OF LA Angels 32. Aroldis Chapman B+ LHP Cincinatti Reds
8. Julio Teheran A- RHP Atlanta Braves 33. Tyler Matzek B+ LHP Colorado Rockies
9. Mike Montgomery A- LHP Kansas City Royals 34. Manny Machado B+ SS Baltimore Orioles
10. Dustin Ackley A- 2B Seattle Mariners 35. Michael Taylor B+ OF Oakland Athletics
11. Simon Castro A- RHP San Diego Padres 36. Jacob Turner B+ RHP Detroit Tigers
12. Lonnie Chisenhall A- 3B Cleveland Indians 37. Jaff Decker B+ OF San Diego Padres
13. Wil Myers A- C Kansas City Royals 38. John Singleton B+ 1B Philidelphia Phillies
14. Jameson Taillon A- RHP Pittsburgh Pirates 39. Randall Delgado B+ RHP Atlanta Braves
15. Jesus Montero A- C New York Yankees 40. Drew Pomeranz B+ LHP Cleveland Indians
16. Madison Bumgarner B+ LHP San Fran Giants 41. Brett Jackson B+ OF Chicago Cubs
17. Martin Perez B+ LHP Texas Rangers 42. Bryan Morris B+ RHP Pittsburgh Pirates
18. Micheal Pineda B+ RHP Seattle Mariners 43. Grant Green B+ SS Oakland Athletics
19. Wilmer Flores B+ 3B New York Mets 44. Kyle Drabek B+ RHP Toronto Blue Jays
20. Mike Minor B+ LHP Atlanta Braves 45. Yasmani Grandal B C Cincinatti Reds
21. Eric Hosmer B+ 1B Kansas City Royals 46. Christian Friedrich B LHP Colorado Rockies
22. Jordan Lyles B+ RHP Houstan Astros 47. Derek Norris B C Washington Nationals
23. Kyle Gibson B+ RHP Minnesota Twins 48. John Lamb B LHP Kansas City Royals
24. Casey Kelly B+ RHP Boston Red Sox 49. Christian Colon B SS Kansas City royals
25. Nick Franklin B+ SS Seattle Mariners 50. Matthew Moore B LHP Tampa Bay Rays
Royals, Braves, Rays, Indians, Pirates, and Mariners all have a number of top guys who are top 50 guys. Royals have the most. Their system has got to be the top system.
Some HM: Ryan Westmoreland, Alex White, Tim Beckham, Dan Hudson, Chirs Sale, Josh Sale, Josh Vitters, Shelby Miller, Ryan Kallish.
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My questions:
1. Why is Dom Brown not a straight A to you? What has he not done thus far?
2. What keeps Freedie Freeman behind Morrison, in your opinion?
3. Why not include Shelby Miller, but include Tyler Matzek?
4. Why do you feel Mike Minor is a better prospect than Lyles?
Outside of that, list looks good
You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220
Top 3 guys...
are A’s for me. I have never liked Dom Brown and before this year he would not have even been in my top 25, but I have to give him the credit he deserves.
2. Freeman and Morrison are interchangeablem but I like Morrison’s hit tool better and feel that he will be the better overall hitter when they reach the majors.
3. Shelby Miller was an H.M, but it mostly has to do with the fact that Matzek is a power lefty who has control. He has better current overall stuff than Miller does. Miller would have been in the 50-53 range though.
4. With Minor’s increase in velocity and his pitching know-how I feel like he could be a dominant starter. I really love power lefites also, so I will always rate the pwer lefty higher when two prospects are close.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
Thanks for the prompt response
This is why I love this community: discussion. Rec’d sir, great work.
You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220
Solid list dude.
I like the placement of some of the recent June draftees.
Surprised that Ryan Kalish didn’t make your Top 50. Despite the recent hip flexor injury, he has had a really good season demonstrating the total package of skills. I almost put him in my Top 22. Were you discouraged by his AAA struggles?
JOSH THOLE > carlos santana
Kalish...
the struggles certainly played a part, but I don’t believe in the tools as much as some others do. I like his season last year and the beginning of this season, but I want too see more from him. I know it may seem like asking for too much, but I like some of the other guys enough to not have him in the top 50. He probably would have been 51.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
Delgado vs. Vizcaino
What does Delgado have to do to jump higher? The kid has been lights out so far but almost everyone has been ranking Vizcaino ahead of Delgado and I’m not sure why.
I just like Vizcaino's stuff more...
and Delgado has not done that MUCH more for me to move him ahead.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
This is certainly a hot topic right now....
I’d rank the Braves pitchers…. 1) Teheran, 2) Minor, 3)Randall Delgado, 4)A. Vizcaino, 5)Probably Hoover 6) probably DiMaster Delgado….
Wow Blackburn makes nearly identical money as Baker does now....
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jun 17, 2010 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Teheran, Delgado, Vizcaino, Minor
My Guys: Gillies, Pacheco, Drabek, Verlander, Ozuna, A Salcedo, S Rodriguez, and others.
Then Lopez
My Guys: Gillies, Pacheco, Drabek, Verlander, Ozuna, A Salcedo, S Rodriguez, and others.
+1
This how I ranked them as well but so many people underrate Delgado and frankly I don’t know why.
lopez
of that group i think lopez is no worse than #5 imo. there are some who believe he has could develop into be a frontline starter.
i would rank them and this is mostly based on upside.
teheran, delgado, vizcaino, minor, lopez ……. but the funny thing is you could make a case for any one of them at almost any slot.
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on Jun 18, 2010 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions
sorry
should have def. proofread that disaster.
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on Jun 18, 2010 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Easily
Robinson Lopez is easily the 5th best pitching prospect and I could see the argument that those are the top 5 in the system (I think I’d probably give Freeman the edge at #5, but not by too much).
Alvarez on, so its not a still in minors list...
so, why not Stanton, Mejia, etc?
great list
but harper at #1 already? Am i the only one that feels that is a bit aggressive?
I'm fine with Harper at 1
but Taillon @ 14 seems rather aggressive.
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
in time
Bryce Harper is going to have Stephen Strasburg like hype… only it will probably play out even longer
Because Stras made the majors pretty darn quickly. Not Mike Leake fast but still quick. – no setbacks
Wow Blackburn makes nearly identical money as Baker does now....
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jun 17, 2010 7:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree that a #1 ranking for Harper is premature.
The guy has not yet had a single AB in pro ball. How often has a non-pitcher been ranked #1 before playing any pro ball?
by Derekcarstairs on Jun 21, 2010 8:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Josh Sale
hardly a top 10 prospect from the draft and he makes your top 60 or so overall? A little aggressive, as 10-15 teams passed on him after all the consensus top picks were taken. He might be the most overrated prospect by fans compared to major league scouting departments. Other players might be better than their draft position because of contract demands, but that doesn’t appear to be the case with Sale.
Sale has insane power potential...
Many have compared him to Travis Snider. The guy can just kill the ball. His power is not on Haprer’s level, but he is one of the few who can sniff it. Also, the order of the draft is not a good way to rank players. Most believe the Rays got an absolute steal with the pick. Houston was considering taking him at 9, but they just like Deshields better for some reason.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
right
but the main reason the draft order is not a good way to rank players is because of salary demands. sale supposedly demanded nothing more than slot. the fact that the astros passed on him in favor of deshields, doesn’t prove that deshields is better, but i don’t think he would have been available at 17 for the rays to take. Sale was passed over 16 times, only 3-5 of which were by obviously better players. YOU might like him a lot, but scouting directors/GMs don’t like him too much.
by auclairkeithbc on Jun 18, 2010 3:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Heyward
I can’t believe that there were 13 players better than him in the 2007 draft! Gah….
a lot of GMs
really screwed the pooch without a rubber!
by Rupert Pupkin on Jun 19, 2010 2:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Any first round pick...
is liked by scouting directors and GMs. He was the third HS bat taken which shows that teams were probably just going after college guys or HS arms(which the class was deep with). Most people I have heard have agreed that Sale is probably the second best power prospect in the draft and that the Rays got a HUGE steal.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
No Tanner Scheppers?
He’s going to be with the Rangers in September. He’s got legit MLB stuff and he’s pretty much major league ready. His injury concerns are valid but he has a much higher chance of succeeding than high school kids who flame out to a much larger degree.
You should look at...
SteveHoffmanSlowey’s top 50. There is a really good debate on there regarding Schepers that I also contributed too. It shows my concerns about him and it also shows why many believe he will be a good starter. It is a good argument with well thought out responses on both sides.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
Question, just out of curiousity, because neither made my list as well
how close were RHP Aaron Crow, and OF Fernando Martinez to making you’re top 50?
Wow Blackburn makes nearly identical money as Baker does now....
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jun 17, 2010 7:32 PM EDT reply actions
Pretty close...
F-Mart is probably in the 60-65 range and Crow somewhere in the top 75 also. The Royals have toooo many arms. Not that it is a bad thing though.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
Taylor at 35, Green at 43...
but no Chris Carter. He’s not hitting for average but after 15 bombs so far he has to be in the top 50?
Don't like Carter all that much...
Don’t really like that kind of player in general. No defense, good power, tons of strikeouts, and low average. Adam Dunn is actually one of my least favorite players in the league and I never liked Chris Davis(looked how that has been going).
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
Good power...
It’s funny how you accentuate the negatives to the max (no defense, low average) and say he has good power. He has great power potential. You can also tell that all you have been doing is reading other people’s reports and posting your own top 50. If you had ever seen him play you would realize that he’s actually pretty athletic for his age. His power would more than make up for his below average glove. He is way more athletic than Dunn. You’d rather have Colon than Carter?
Meant to say...
“athletic for his size” not age
Yea...
I would much rather have an average defensive SS who can hit at the top of the order than a guy who is going to stirkeout almost 200 times every year at the big league level. It doesn’t matter that he has great power to me. I even put Dunn and Davis in their as examples of me disliking players of that type. Also, I have never seen him in person, but I have seen plenty of videos on him to see that he is a good athlete for his size, but that is not saying much. By the way I’m not comparing him to Dunn, I am saying that I don’t like players who strike out a ton and their only value is power.
Also, how can you tell that all I have been doing is looking at other people’s top 50s and posting my own top 50? Haven’t I backed up every ranking I have made so far with an explanation? It seems you are just mad I am undervaluing one of your favorite players.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
it's his name
Chris Carter is too boring of a name and there’s a few other Chris Carters lurking in the sports world. If his name was Zeke Tisdale I’m fairly certain he’d be a top 15 prospect in some circles.
by Rupert Pupkin on Jun 19, 2010 2:05 AM EDT up reply actions
Zeke Tisdale
Sounds toolsy, got a scouting report?
Gonzo
Pretty solid list. Like one of the other posters, I’d have Miller in the top 30-35, but not too much to quibble over.
I like Miller...
but he is one of the pitchers you have to wait until they get to at least double A to judge because he will dominate the lower levels with his fastball alone. I do like him though.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
I though it might be Aaron
the way he values power lefties, I thought he might get a mention, in the least. He’s in my top 50.
He is close...
I do love the power lefties :) Ethan Martin almost made it too but I think I am too biased there.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
Viciedo
Why is this guy never on any lists? I know he doesn’t walk but he’s 21 in AAA hitting .290 with 14 hrs
he'll have to hit
he may eat third base if he stays there.
by BryceHarper on Jun 17, 2010 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions
He's already at 1B
He’s a B- prospect for me. He has power, but terrible plate discipline and little athleticism.
better question
did he eat second base on the way over to first?
by BryceHarper on Jun 17, 2010 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm still completely unclear on what is so exciting about Weglarz that people have him top 30.
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twitter: @alskor
He's batting .247/.362/.364 since he got promoted to AAA.
and he’s been in AAA now almost as long as his good stretch in AA to start the year.
His line last year wasn’t particularly impressive (yes, I know – bad and good, injury).
I don’t think he’s a bad prospect, mind you. I just don’t understand the rationale behind having him this high… but then, its been years and I’ve never really understood the Weglarz love, so maybe its just me.
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
I really like him actually...
maybe it is just me, but the power patience combo is pretty damn good. Would never put the Alvarez comp, but he is oddly one of my favorites. I usually don’t like players like him, but I think he ends up as a good major leaguer.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
Yeah when he shows Pedro Alvarez's power for a full season
let me know, thanks
People are underrating Viciedo
Remember all the hype he had? After one transition season, he’s been owning triple-A as a 21-year old, hitting for power and average. I think people jumped off the bandwagon too soon, yeah the plate discipline is scary bad, but his offensive potential should put him in the tail end of a top 50.
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on Jun 18, 2010 9:33 AM EDT reply actions
He has power
But the absolutely terrible plate discipline and lack of athleticism are huge issues. I’m not a fan.
Same here
Not a fan now, never really was. He could well prove me wrong, but I think the poor plate discipline will let pitchers eat him alive at the major league level.
http://bullpenbanter.com
His numbers
are very similar to Brennan Boeschs minor league #s and he seems to be doing pretty good right now. Not sure how a poor walk rate means hes gonna get eaten alive? He k’s less than 20% of the time. Also Vlad Guerrero walks about 5% of the time and hes done alright
Brennan Boesch has been really good for 2 months.....
SSS-extraordinare could still be a likely outcome.
Comparing one’s walk rate, and finding comfort in it, to the best bad-pitch hitter in the Majors is probably not your strongest argument.
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Jun 18, 2010 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
players can be productive with Vlad-like stats for about a year
but nobody can do what he’s done over an entire career like he’s done.
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
yeah that was a bad comparison
prolly should of said delmon young
Vlad Guerrero is pretty sick...
he can hit a ball from anywhere in the zone. It was pretty incredible when I saw him hit a HR that was way off the plate low and away. He was able to make contact and still send it over the wall. He has elite contact skills.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
RE
Viciedo has a walk rate just over 3% in AAA. It’s possible he improves it against better pitching, but I wouldn’t want to count on that. As mentioned by others Boesch has a month or two in the bigs, he’s not the best example but he had better walk rates through the minors than Viciedo has ever posted.
http://bullpenbanter.com
Casey Kelly at 24 and Bumgarner at 16? Perhaps you haven’t heard, but Kelly has 3 plus pitches…
Hector Sanchez: Underrated. Fighting body bias since the 2009 off season. I still love you, son, even if you're fat.
I know this...
me, redsoxfaithful, and casejud all had a good argument on this subject on redsoxfaithful’s top prospect list.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
Good list, Gonzo.....
Where would Stetson Allie find himself in your top 100? What do you project from him and when do you see him seeing the Majors?
Also, re: Bryan Morris, do you see him at Triple-A this year and roughly in PGH by mid-season next year, obviously based on him keeping up his great season (minus last night) ?
One final one: Tony Sanchez. Pretty aggressive from you concerning him, what do you like about him and what do you see his timeline being in terms of being recalled? Besides OBP and AVG, as well as a good K/BB ratio, I am kind of put-off with his power this year, but that could be due to his injury, as, pre-injury, he was slugging in the mid- 600’s I believe.
Anyways, thanks for the list, few quibbles – none worth mentioning – on my end.
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Jun 18, 2010 1:41 PM EDT reply actions
Good AVG/OBP/defense from a catcher
Pretty valuable even if he only slugs .400-.450
"The A's have to be setting some record this year for simultaneously maximizing team quality and player anonymity. I guess that’s sort of their thing though." - Luke in MN
Thanks...
Allie might make the back end of the top 100. Some have called his fastvall as even better than Taillon’s. They were constantly ranked 1-2 in the draft in pure stuff. I could see him as a front end starter who takes 4-5 years to make the majors. Outstanding stuff, but he has a lot of work to do. Could make it in 2-3 if they bring him along as a reliever.
I see Bryan Morris on the timeline you listed above. He had a rough start last night, but that doesn’t bring him down for me at all. It was only a matter of time before he had the rough start this year. I really wnat to see how he responds in his next start. That should be more telling than anything he has done this year. He should make it to Triple A by the end of the year with a possible September call-up. Then he will likely start next year in Triple A and make it to the majors sometimes around late June.
Tony Sanchez is the best catching prospect in the minors in my opinion. Myers and Montero are both ranked higher, but niether projects to stay at catcher. Sanchez should put up a line around 280/350/450 every year.That would be good for a 800 OPS which would make him one of the better catchers in the majors. To go along with his good defense, he should be a potential all star. I find it almost laughable that people underrated him so much last year. He is really making the Pirate’s FO look really smart.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
Great stuff, Gonzo....
RE: Sanchez, do you know the severity of the shoulder that has reportedly been bothering him? I think it is not only affecting his power at the plate, but also his ability to throw people out on the bases.
Yep – I see Allie taking a little while in the Minors, having some struggles coupled with some dominating starts. Then, once he figures it out, I think he projects as a #2 as a starter and a closer as a reliever. I really like the way that pitchers have progressed in the Buccos system these past two years (Morris, Locke, Owens, Adcock, and Lincoln has improved before coming up) so I am hoping/projecting that they keep Allie on the SP route, only to adjust him down the road if need be. I wish the hitters in the Bucs system (besides Tabata/Walker/Pedro) would start progressing like the Pitchers, but that may be due to the lack of position prospects the Bucs have. Sanchez/D’Arnaud/Grossman/Cunningham and maybe Gorkys Hernandez are the only guys that are ‘prospects’, with only Sanchez being pretty much a sure thing to make the majors.
Next draft….I hope the Bucs go after some bats in a pretty deep draft.
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Jun 18, 2010 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Sorry...
I don’t know the severity of the injury, but it could be affecting his throws. Shoulder injuries are one of the worst kinds of injuries there is. Even if it is not serious enough to need surgery, it could still have lingering effects after it “heals”. Also, I have heard that it seems to be affecting his throws. I really hope he gets past it in the offseason. If you remember, the other Sanchez had shoulder issues at one point that he never really got past.
I think they do go for bats next draft. Even Huntington has said they drafted Taillon because they thought he was special. If it was a player like Jacob Turner or Tyler Matzek available, I believe they would have taken Machado. Next year is filled with mostly college pitching, but if we are lucky enough to have the number 1 pick, we could get one of the better bats we have seen come from the draft in a while. Anthony Rendon is a beast who I would take over Bryce Harper any day.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
+1 on Rendon
That guy is a beast. He will likely be labeled as the best college hitter to come out since Teixeira. Rendon = future stud.
General thoughts
Excellent list.
Suggestions:
• Bryce Harper is not No. 1. He’s between 5 and 10.
• You have Chisenhall a little too high.
• You have Trout a little low.
• You get a lot of credibility points for sticking with Michael Taylor and Freeman and Casey Kelly. They’re all good.
"Most overrated prospect in the minors." -- Bravesin07 on Madison Bumgarner
Harper
Barring something unexpected over the next few months, I’d be surprised if he isn’t a near-unanimous #1, especially considering how weak the overall prospect group is.
He is the only "elite" guy left...
in the minors. He has unheard of power and every other tool necessary to become one of the btter hitters in the game.
I really like Chisenhall’s overall package. The guy is going to stick at third and be a hell of a hitter.
I could agree with you on Trout, but I didn’t put him too high because he is still in too low of a level. He has the tools and is using them really well though. He could easily be top 3 by the end of the year.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
I'm confused
Trout can’t be #1 because he’s in too low of a level, but Harper is #1, despite he has yet to get to A ball, and probably won’t leave it for another 18 months?
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by OldProspects on Jun 20, 2010 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Trout doesn't have the same tools...
as Harper. My point on having Harper higher is no one can match his tools or even come that close to matching them.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
for fun
If you compare them using the five tools, Trout would seem to have the advantage in hitting for average, running, and fielding, while Harper would have the advantage in hitting for power and throwing.
Harper's got 80 power though
Trout’s got very good tools, but I don’t know if any are truly elite level. I think Harper v. Trout is a very interesting debate.
I would rank Drabek higher
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