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New York Mets Draft Review

Continuing with the NL East, here is a look at the New York Mets draft.

Star-divide

New York Mets Draft Review
1) Matt Harvey, RHP, University of North Carolina: He's got a great arm, no question, but doubts about his mechanical consistency and his command make him (in my opinion) a bit of a stretch at seventh overall, especially since he's likely to want overslot money. That said, he does have a very high upside if he can keep his delivery in gear.

3) Blake Forsythe, C, University of Tennessee: Has a strong throwing arm and shows power, but his spring was disappointing and there are doubts about his ability to hit well with wood, which could make him a backup catcher in the long run.

4) Cory Vaughn, OF, San Diego State University: Son of Greg Vaughn, so he has good bloodlines. Very athletic, fast and skilled on the bases, has considerable power potential, but problems with contact may limit his batting average/OBP against professional pitching. Good upside, but also a lot of risk.

5) Matt dan Dekker, OF, University of Florida: Best attributes are defense and speed. Sometimes shows power, but hitting track record is inconsistent. Profiles as a fourth or fifth outfielder.

6) Greg Peavey, RHP, Oregon State University: Doesn't throw as hard as he did in high school, but he has a good slider and an average fastball. Could be a fifth starter or long relief type.

7) Jeff Walters, RHP, University of Georgia: Can hit 95 MPH and has a nasty slider, but problems with command and control prevented him from being successful in college. He might do better against wooden bats in the pros. His arm strength is unusually good for a college senior, but he's also unusually raw for that category.

8) Kenny McDowall, RHP, Junior College of Southern Nevada: Throws impressive 90 MPH sinker, but breaking pitches are below average. Should be signable away from the University of Hawaii if the Mets aren't cheapskates.

9) Jacob deGrom, RHP, Stetson: 90-93 MPH fastball, workable slider, athletic enough that he played shortstop at times. This one looks like an interesting sleeper pick that needs to be tracked closely. Walked just 16 in 82 innings.

10) Akeel Morris, RHP, Virgin Islands HS: Another interesting sleeper, Morris has reportedly hit 92-94 MPH but needs experience and refinement. Connors State Junior College in Oklahoma recruit.

FOUR OTHERS OF NOTE: 12-Bret Mitchell, RHP, Minnesota State University-Mankato; 13-Brian Harrison, 3B, Furman; 17-Chad Sheppard, RHP, Northwestern State University; 32-Patrick Farrell, C, Regis University

COMMENT: The Mets are usually conservative in the draft. I rated Harvey as a late first round talent, and since he won't be cheap to sign, it is a bit of an unusual selection for the Mets, granted his upside is high. Forsythe, dan Dekker, and Peavey are OK picks but not spectacular, all possible role players. Vaughn is a high-risk/high-reward player but I like him in the fourth round; he could be very good if he can cut back on the strikeouts a bit. Picks seven through ten are actually pretty interesting: four live arms that are fairly raw but could be very good if refined properly. Overall, this class is another so-so outing for a team with the financial resources to make a much bigger splash.    

There were better players than Forsythe still available in the third round, for example: Austin Wates, Zach Cates, Aaron Shipman, and Chris Hawkins were the next four choices in the round, and I can't see how Forsythe is a better prospect than those guys except for a lower price tag. If they really wanted a college catcher, Micah Gibbs was still available. I'm not trying to pick on Forsythe; he's not a bad prospect, but I just think the Mets need to be more aggressive. They have the money, there's no excuse not to.

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Comments

Display:

I hate this draft class

As a Mets fan for most of my 32 years, I am not surprised, but I am hugely disappointed in this class. They went with low-ceiling, low impact college players again, and the majority of these guys will be role players.

Of course, that’s not even looking at the fact that Harvey looks like a reliever to me, as he doesn’t throw strikes or have a decent off-speed pitch. If they didn’t want to go above slot, why not go with Whitson? Or Josh Sale? Both would have been better choices, and I would have been placated a bit.

by robertgold on Jun 13, 2010 5:09 PM EDT reply actions  

I would have

even preferred Chris Sale over Harvey if they wanted to go college arm, but that’s just me.

by Pelferized on Jun 13, 2010 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Harvey

He has two decent offspeed pitches. I saw him against Virginia and his changeup and curve were both very good on that day. I’d say both are above average. Mix in 91-95 MPH heat and he has good stuff and size. His command improved greatly this year so it’s on the way up.

I would have gone a different direction with the pick but Harvey could easily be a #3 starter if he continues to pump strikes.

by UncleBuck44 on Jun 13, 2010 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Solid draft

IF the Mets follow it up by making a splash in the international market.

Despite focusing on college players, there are a bunch of very high-upside guys in the bunch.

by T Pac on Jun 13, 2010 5:18 PM EDT reply actions  

High-Upside Guys?

Outside of Harvey, there isn’t a single high upside guy here who has a chance to reach his “potential”, and as I said before, he’s a reliever, and probably an 8th inning guy at best.

Vaughn is a giant bust waiting to happen – scouts were joking that they were going to see him strikeout 4 times when they went to see him play (see Keith Law’s evaluation). Forsythe won’t hit with wood, and probably will be Josh Thole, part II, with even less power. Dan Dekker is an aluminum bat wonder who will never hit with wood.

There isn’t a single player here who projects as either a starting pitcher or an everyday player. When you’re a major market club with your own cable station and a nearly new stadium, that’s a major problem.

by robertgold on Jun 13, 2010 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'd be more impressed with your scouting reports if I thought you had some scouting background.

I’d actually be fairly surprised if you’ve seen them all play outside of youtube scouting videos. Quoting a scout or talent evaluator is one thing, but without some background I’m going to stick with actual scouts assesments of these guys abilities and ceilings.

Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...

by Stephen Schmidt on Jun 13, 2010 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

actually, I mostly agree with what he said

Harvey definitely has the potential to be very good, but he’s also rather risky for a college pitcher. Forsythe is an okay prospect but needs to show up next year, he didn’t really do that this year until late. The rest of this draft is filler.

by mrkupe on Jun 13, 2010 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Forsythe will have less power than Thole?

That took away from your whole argument. Thole has 9 home runs in 6 minor league seasons that is Luis Castillo territory there is no way Forsythe loses that much power going from metal to wood.

by Pelferized on Jun 13, 2010 8:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah thole can barely break ISO's of .100

not to mention Thole’s biggest issue is he’s not a natural catcher.

I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.

by Gina on Jun 13, 2010 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Great statement!

You can’t have less power then Thole!

by fawnsmets on Jun 14, 2010 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

High upside guys?!

I guess you could hedge it that way in your mind, but usually you want to see more raw star potential towards the top of your draft. The question marks with Harvey, Forsythe, and Vaughn just seem too much from what you usually find at those slots.

by basemonkey on Jun 13, 2010 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not really

Harvey is the very definition of raw star potential.

Forsythe was the 89th pick. Expecting to get a star from that spot in the draft is just ridiculous.

by T Pac on Jun 13, 2010 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

i'd disagree

he has high upside but he’s also a college pitcher, it doesn’t make a lot of sense, at least IMO, to take a raw college pitcher that high. A prep arm with his profile would be raw star potential. Harvey seems to me to be more of a high floor, maybe high ceiling, guy.

I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.

by Gina on Jun 13, 2010 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

that doesn''t matter

Sounds like you are trying to call Harvey a high floor guy purely because he went to college, and saying his ceiling his limited for the same reason.

However, there’s no actual causation in looking at college vs. high school. College pitchers are not intrinsically different from high school pitchers.

by T Pac on Jun 13, 2010 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

No I'm saying he has a limited window because of his age

not a limited ceiling. A prep arm can struggle for two years trying to develop breaking balls or control and etc and still only be like 20 and have time to figure it out. If a college pitcher struggles for 2 years he gets dangerously close to becoming a non prospect or being put into the bullpen.

I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.

by Gina on Jun 14, 2010 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

that's not true

because that’s now how pitchers develop

by T Pac on Jun 14, 2010 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

oh boy

“he has high upside but he’s also a college pitcher, it doesn’t make a lot of sense, at least IMO, to take a raw college pitcher that high.”

Don’t tell us, tell the Mets!

by mrkupe on Jun 14, 2010 1:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

Eric Goeddel

No mention of him? Or did you not include him because you don’t think he’ll sign?

by nmigliore on Jun 13, 2010 5:54 PM EDT reply actions  

sign

I think he needs another year.

by John Sickels on Jun 13, 2010 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

we already got it apparently

I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.

by Gina on Jun 13, 2010 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

never stopped KC

official announcement for 2012 AS game coming this week

baseball rules.

by doublestix on Jun 14, 2010 1:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

I liked mine better

You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220

by Mets2k9 on Jun 13, 2010 7:00 PM EDT reply actions  

seems like Harvey wasn't the right guy at the 7th pick

most are saying the same thing. I hope someone saw something and he pans out. I hope he reads all of it and somehow gets a chip on hi sshoulder.

by Rickfansince76 on Jun 14, 2010 8:42 AM EDT reply actions  

Another guy worth mentioning

Northwestern State’s Chad Sheppard; BA had him as a top 200 prospect coming into the draft and he went #512 to the Mets; certainly looks like a steal for where he was taken.

by nmigliore on Jun 15, 2010 5:05 PM EDT reply actions  

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