Midwest League teenagers
by Haden Dawg on Jun 12, 2010 2:48 AM EDT
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Over the last few years look at these lines in the Midwest league for 18/19 yr olds....
2003- Prince Fielder .313/.409/.526 71/80 BB/K
2004- Daric Barton .313/.435/.511 69/44 BB/K
2006- Colby Rasmus .310/.373/.512 29/55 BB/K
2006- Justin Upton .263/.343./.413 52/96 BB/K
2006- Jay Bruce .291/.355/.516 44/106 BB/K
2006- Cam Maybin .304/.387/.457 50/116 BB/K
2007- Travis Snider .313/.377/.525 49/129 BB/K
2008- Mike Moustakas .272/.337/.468 43/86 BB/K
2009- Josh Vitters .316/.351/.535 7/42 BB/K
That kind of puts into perspective what these 3 teenagers are doing this year. Pretty special.
2010- Mike Trout .366/.442/.551 27/35 BB/K, 31sb
2010- Wil Myers .294/.407/.527 38/43 BB/K
2010- "BD" Nick Franklin .313/.357/.571 16/52 BB/K
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but which premium position
I’m still hopeful he sticks at C, but it seems like that idea gets a lot of cold water poured on it. Are you suggesting he sticks at catcher as opposed to going to the OF? Or maybe shifts to 3B?
I think 3B is most likely.
He has a dynamite arm and is quite athletic.
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maybe in a vacuum
3B does make sense given his athleticism and arm, he could make that transition Inge style. but with the MOOSE possibly taking over there in the very near future, i don’t think they’d move him there.
OF is more likely. but i’m not even close to writing off the possibility of him staying at catcher. far too soon for that, IMO.
baseball rules.
Absolutely.
I meant IF he moves its the best fit.
I still can’t help but wonder if each guy is playing the other guy’s best position. Moose as a catcher always made some sense to me.
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19 year old Hak-Ju Lee
.265/.336/.342, 22/38 BB/K
…yay?
Impressive list
But you forgot Jaff Decker. He’s having a rough season thus far in high A, though he’s been hurt for the majority of it. But as a 19 yr old at FT Wayne he hit
299/442/514 85/92 BB/K
yep yep
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."
by fourfingerwoo on Jun 13, 2010 3:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Suggestion
This list tells us what a selected set of past players have done, which is interesting and gives us some since of how Myers et al. are doing compared to a cherry-picked set of premium players at the same level. But, where does it sit relative to all others? Were these the best lines put up since 2003, or were plenty of similarly good lines also put up by scrubs we have long since forgotten?
If lots of guys put up lines similar to these 9 guys, then it diminishes the significance of what Myers et al. are doing. What would be more interesting to me is to see the top 10 performances in the MWL (by 18/19 year olds), and who they were…and how they compare to Myers et al.
"In the event of a significant release of oil, an accurate estimation of the spill's total volume . . . is essential in providing preliminary data to plan and initiate cleanup operations." - Page 2 of British Petroleum's regional plan for dealing with offshore oil leaks.
*sense
"In the event of a significant release of oil, an accurate estimation of the spill's total volume . . . is essential in providing preliminary data to plan and initiate cleanup operations." - Page 2 of British Petroleum's regional plan for dealing with offshore oil leaks.
Here's a more comprehensive list.
Sid, I’ll rank the top 3 or so in order of OPS. Only teenagers will count. Minnimum of 138 ab’s. Other performances of note with age in parenthesis.
2000-
1. Chris Snelling .305/ .386/ .483 /.869
2. John Buck .282/ .374/ .444/ .817
3. Cody Ross .267/ .356/ .396/ .753
Also of note… two 20 year olds…
- (20) Austin Kearns .306/ .415/ .558/ .973
- (20) Albert Pujols .324 .389 .565 .953
2001-
1. Adrian Gonzalez .312/ .382/ .486/ .868
2. Wily Mo Pena .264/ .327/ .485/ .813
3. Jason Belcher .326/ .394/ .410/ .803
Also of note….
- (22) Jason Bay .362/ .449/ .572/ 1.021
- (20) Justin Morneau .356/ .420/ .597/ 1.018
2002-
1. Brad Nelson .297/ .353/ .520/ .873
2. Shin-Shoo Choo .302/ .417/ .440/ .857
3. Casey Kotchman .281/ .390/ .444/ .835
Also of note…
- (20) Jason Kubel .321/ .380/ .521/ .901
- (19) Joe Mauer .302/ .393/ .392/ .785
2003-
1. Prince Fielder .313/ .409/ .526/ .935
2. Erick Aybar .308/ .346/ .446/ .792
3. Steve Moss .290/ .398/ .382/ .780
Also of note….
- (21) Andre Either .272/ .355/ .333/ .689
2004-
1. Daric Barton .313/ .445/ .511/ .956
2. Melky Cabrera .333/ .383/ .462/ .845
3. Wladimir Balentien .277/ .315/ .519/ .834
Also of note…
- (22) Ian Kinsler .402/ .465/ .692/ 1.157
- (20) Howie Kendrick .367/ .398/ .578/ .976
- (20) Joey Votto .302/ .419/ .486/ .905
2005-
1. Asdrubal Cabrera .270/ .368/ .514/ .881
2. Carlos Gonzalez .307/ .371/ .489/ .860
3. David Winfree .294/ .329/ .452/ .781
Also of note….
- (21) John Jaso .307/ .383/ .515/ .898
Will follow with 2006-2010..
2006-2010
2006-
1. Colby Rasmus .310 .373 .512 .884
2. Jay Bruce .291 .355 .516 .871
3. Cameron Maybin .304 .387 .457 .844
2007-
1. Travis Snider .313 .377 .525 .902
2. Hank Conger .290 .336 .472 .809
3. Wilson Ramos .291 .345 .438 .783
2008-
1. Neftali Soto .326 .343 .500 .843
2. Andrew Lambo .288 .346 .462 .807
3. Mike Moustakas .272 .337 .468 .805
also of note….
- (21) Brett Wallace .327 .418 .490 .908
2009-
1. Jaff Decker .299 .442 .514 .956
2. Josh Vitters .316 .351 .535 .886
3. Brett Lawrie .274 .348 .454 .802
also of note….
- (19) Aaron Hicks .251 .353 .382 .735
2010-
1. Mike Trout .362 .438 .547 .985
2. William Myers .294 .407 .527 .935
3. Nick Franklin .313 .357 .571 .927
4. Matthew Davidson .297 .375 .500 .875
Obviously a ways to go in the season still, but the 2010 crop of teens looks special. In the last 10 years, there have been 4 teenagers that put up better than a .900 OPS. This year there are 3 alone. I’ll end with some guys that went on to big things in the majors and how they did in the Midwest league.
1994- (18) Alex Rodriguez .319 .379 .605 .984
1994- (18) Torii Hunter .293 .358 .439 .796
1993- (19) Johnny Damon .290 .360 .419 .779
1992- (18) Dmitri Young .310 .375 .493 .868
One other thing
BDNF, Trout, and Myers all play premium defensive positions. Of the 4 guys in the last decade to go over .900 OPS, there were two 1B and two corner OFer’s.
The top 10 performances in the MWL (by 18/19 year olds) in the last decade
1. Mike Trout .362/ .438/ .547/ .985———-2010
2. (tie) Jaff Decker .299/ .442/ .514/ .956———2009
2. (tie) Daric Barton .313/ .445/ .511/ .956———2004
4. (tie) William Myers .294/ .408/ .527/ .935———2010
4. (tie) Prince Fielder .313/ .409/ .526/ .935———2003
6. Nick Franklin .313/ .357/ .571/ .927———2010
7. Travis Snider .313/ .377/ .525/ .902———2007
8. Josh Vitters .316/ .351/ .535/ .886———2009
9. Colby Rasmus .310/ .373/ .512/ .884———2006
10. Matthew Davidson .297/ .375/ .500/ .875———2010
Nice work
On this and the above ones. Fielder is the only established star from the group, but Barton, Rasmus, Snider, and Vitters appear to have bright futures.
"In the event of a significant release of oil, an accurate estimation of the spill's total volume . . . is essential in providing preliminary data to plan and initiate cleanup operations." - Page 2 of British Petroleum's regional plan for dealing with offshore oil leaks.
I'm not completely sure those are the 'top 10' but still a solid list there
I agree with most of it
Wow Blackburn makes nearly identical money as Baker does now....
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jun 14, 2010 1:29 AM EDT up reply actions
I think you misunderstood me
This list is quite literally the top 10 performances by teenagers ranked by OPS. It is based on pure stats, not who I thought should be in the top 10. Others have had better years, but they were 20 years old or older. These are the ten best.
One thing to note though
Young kids in their first year in full season ball tend to do much better in the first half of the year. Comparing these half years to full seasons isn’t comparing apples to apples.
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Trout's contact skills standout from the best
He could be a future batting champion. I said Johnny Damon from the right side a few months ago and it would be a great comp but he’s showing more pop than Damon did at the same age.
Wait until the end of the year...
Trout’s got some very nice peripherals, and some power, but that .410 BABIP pretty obviously inflates his numbers. Myers has actually been more impressive than Trout as his numbers are more sustainable and less BA dependent.
Basically, all three of these guys are phenomenal prospects, but lets not get carried away here.
by Franchise887 on Jun 13, 2010 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions
BABIP
Somebody really needs to go through the (admittedly exhaustive) process of showing the relationship between BABIP and XBH percentage. If a dude is blasting line drives into the gaps and not striking out very much, he’s going to have a really high BABIP that is quite sustainable.
I really don’t think it’s a big deal with Trout. He’s showing good pop and strong plate discipline. He’s hitting 70 points higher than Myers, well outside of the range in which you can expect batting average to fluctuate – Trout has been the superior hitter this year, thus far.
BABIP, SLG, and Leagues
One thing no one ever seems to think much about is how BABIP can affect slugging, too. If a guy has a massive .450 BABIP it’s likely a lot more of his line drives and fly balls are dropping in than you would expect and that’s going to give more doubles and triples.
The other issue with looking at BABIP in the minors is I really have no basis on which to judge how a BABIP has occurred. Players regularly post insane BABIPs in the minors, probably due to poor defense and weird parks, so it’s impossible to say whether Trout’s .410 BABIP is mostly mirage or real without more information, and it’s impossible to say how much of it will translate to the major leagues. A study of the average BABIP in every league might be helpful. I can barely keep track of which leagues are major hitting havens and which are pitcher friendly, and that’s such an important thing for judging prospects it’s kind of silly.
Reply to both...
The relationship between BABIP and LD% (not XBH%) is fairly well known. The Studeman rule of thumb still largely holds true at the MLB level, that is, expected BABIP=LD%+0.12. In the minors, because the quality of defense is significantly less, BABIP typically outperforms that formula. However, as players advance through the minors expected BABIP drops as the quality of defense improves.
Using minorleaguesplits.com’s luck and park normalizations, Trout’s line drops to .295/.380/.468/.848. Just taking a look at his batted ball profile, Trout leads the league in BABIP despite a fairly anemic 15.2% LD rate. He’s hitting a lot of ground balls and infield flies (a combined 56.2% of his balls in play) so luck is definitely helping inflate his numbers because that is not a batted ball profile that normally results in an OPS near 1.000.
Long story short, he’s still a very good prospect because of his combination of plate skills, power potential, speed, and defense. However, I have to again preach caution against people making these kind of hyperbolic analyses without fully examining the available data.
by Franchise887 on Jun 14, 2010 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
the relationship of speed and BABIP is also well know
take a look at Ichiro’s career 359 BABIP.
btw Trout is very fast.
Very true
I don’t know where to fit this in, but I’m going to do it right here and see what happens. I’ve seen many people on this site going ga-ga for Trout so far, and while it’s not without reason I worry that part of it is with unsound reasoning. I think people see the gaudy triple slash line and freak out over it. Unless Trout is going to be the best pure hitter this side of Ty Cobb, he’s not going to hit .360 obviously. His IsoD and IsoP are both very respectable numbers for someone his age in the MWL but the OBP and SLG numbers are inflated by the insanely high batting average. I mean look at the top 10 seasons list above, Trout’s numbers are the outliers in that group because his average is so ridiculously high.
The BABIP comments above are right to certain extents. Obviously Trout’s .410 BABIP isn’t going to hold up as he moves up the ladder, so there will be regression there and with his triple slash numbers because of it. I wouldn’t be shocked however if he maintains consistently higher than average BABIP’s because of his speed/power combo. We can’t use the LD% + .12 formula here because the batted ball data in the minors is very suspect, as far as LD% and FB% go. I don’t believe there is too much error in the GB%, as that isn’t really a subjective call a scorer makes like a LD vs FB can be. That said I don’t worry about Trout as I did with Cameron Maybin who posted high BABIP’s but had extreme GB%‘s with them, so I don’t think Trout is a product of racking up hits due to poor defenses like Maybin did.
Hopefully all of this doesn’t come out too jumbled, I’m fighting an awful headache/toothache combo right now so I can’t guarantee this makes as much sense in print as it does in my head, but I just hope people are excited about Trout for the right reasons-advanced approach at the plate, excellent speed and baserunning instincts, very good contact ability, and solid power, and not for the flashy triple slash line. He profiles similar to Desmond Jennings, but at least for me I can’t put him on that same level because we haven’t seen how Trout holds up against more advanced competition.
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trout
a couple points:
I don’t think isolated slugging and isolated on base are that indicative here. Isolated slugging is an odd thing IMO. What would be better is a ratio of slugging to batting average. For example if a player hits 250 with 500 slugging it’s 2-1. If that player suddenly improved their hitting to 300 they probably wouldn’t have a 550 slugging. There is very little chance ALL the new hits would be singles, probably a proportionate amount.
In Trouts case his slugging would take a big hit because of this. On the other hand I think his on-base might even improve. Players on streaks tend to have less walks since they are on a hot streak and put the ball in play more.
I think his BABIP and batting average will go down. Not because he has been lucky. I think this “luck” aspect is way overblown in general. I just think Trout has been on a hot streak and the pitchers have not seen him much. Also, I think it’s easier for pitchers to adjust to power hitters more then to patient fast hitters (which are quite rare at lower levels).
I think he has more potential than Desmond because of the power aspect. But he’s further away and has a lower floor right now. Also very very different body types. Desmond is and will be a very good CF with speed and D. Trout could go many different directions.
Yeah, I wasn't very clear I guess
My points with IsoD and IsoP were that there are underlying skills here, but I think people are getting too caught up in the OBP and SLG numbers themselves. They see a .440 OBP and a .550 SLG and ooh and aah over it, when those numbers themselves aren’t something you’re likely to see him from as he moves up the ladder.
As for the luck vs. hot streak idea…I don’t know. If it’s just a hot streak he’s been on it since the season started. His monthly splits have been fairly consistent, so it’s not like his numbers are up because of a hot couple of weeks or something. As I said originally, I do think Trout can maintain an above average BABIP as he moves up, because he has such great speed but also solid power. Usually a guy has a high BABIP because they’re hitting with power and rocketing line drives all over the place or because they’re using their speed a la Ichiro as you mentioned. Trout seems capable of blending those two, so I’m certainly not saying his BABIP is strictly luck induced. I guess I’m just more inclined to buy that some of it is luck than it’s just a 10 week hot streak he’s on.
Onto the walk rate part, if he would walk more by hitting less, I’d be even more optimistic on him. He’s already drawing a walk every other game basically as an 18 year old in the MWL. That’s an impressive number itself. I can see him having more potential than Desmond, I’d say I agree with that statement. When I compared them I was thinking along the lines of a very good contact skills, good plate discipline, and solid pop for someone playing CF. I’ve just seen a few people basically grading/ranking them nearly identically and I just don’t buy that at this point. I don’t think the difference in ceiling is enough to put them on equal footing when you factor in Jennings advantage in having produced at the highest levels of the minors.
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nice work, Haden
Looking at this list makes me a little more nervous about Franklin’s and Davidson’s strike zone issues. At least Franklin’s glove will buy him time to figure it out.
This is the crotchless panties of lists
Even though it’s sexy and looks real good there’s a hole in the middle.
Matt Davidson deserves to be on this list.
AB 255
Hits 68
Doubles 19
HR 8
AVG .302
OBP .380
SLG .502
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."
Uh.. one thing...
I would consider the hole in the crotchless panties a good thing…..
see above
This is not a ranking list made up by who I think the best prospects are. It is a list of actual performance in the Midwest League ranked in order of OPS. You can see by the top ten list that Davidson (at the time I made the list) is having the tenth best performance by a teen in the last decade. Once again guys, this is not a “prospect list”, this is a list based of raw statistical data and not any opinions of mine.
For what it’s worth, I don’t quite trust Trout as a top ten prospect. There’s no doubt the guy is really good. But there are a few too many tweener things about him for my liking. To me, there is a chance that his defense doesn’t play well enough in center, and he doesn’t hit enough XBH to be a great corner OF. He could turn out to be something approximating Carl Crawford, but he’s one of those guys I’d like to see hitting well off of AA pitchers before I’m comfortable with him as a pure blue-chip, five-star, top-ten prospect.
I also don’t trust Nick Franklin just yet. I’d like to see a full season of goodness from him before I stick him in the top fifty. From what I gather, he’s good enough in the field to be somebody’s long-term shortstop if he can be a decent hitter. If he can’t hit, I don’t think he’s a starter based on his defense. I’d really want to see whether his bat plays at higher levels, but I’ll settle for seeing him keep it up for the rest of the year.
Myers does so many things well as a hitter that I know he’ll find a spot in the bigs, probably sooner than later. He’s got the defensive tools to play somewhere that makes him even more valuable, but I don’t know if the Royals will wait that long. They’re not exactly prospect developing geniuses. Still, I’ll take him first out of this crop of MWLers, though Trout isn’t too far behind. Franklin is quite a ways down for me; I think Aaron Hicks is the third-best hitting prospect in this league right now, with Franklin in the next tier with guys like Bobby Borchering, Matt Davidson, and Angel Morales. And I’m undoubtedly forgetting others.
Re:
He’s a good athlete with a good arm. I think the consensus he could handle the corner OF and possibly 2B/3B if catching doesn’t work out.,
myers on defense
I don’t think 3B is in his near future for obvious reasons. He could probably handle 2B but it’d waste his arm and would probably take him a bit to pick up, thus negating the biggest single reason why you’d move him off catcher right now.
I’m guessing he’s destined for the OF in KC, but I think they might try him in CF to see how that goes.
I would expect KC to play Myers in RF if catching doesn't work out
KC likes Derrick Robinson and CF in KC is a speed position. Myers has the arm and athletic ability to anchor RF. This was a debate before the draft when KC was leaning toward picking Grandal – how soon would KC move Myers? His bat is advanced enough that they are hoping his defense doesn’t slow his delay.
more myers
I don’t anticipate that he would stick in CF, although less athletic players have been excellent defenders there. But you’d play him there as a developmental move.
I don’t know, he’s got a really nice bat, but the idea that Kansas City of all teams is sitting here worrying about how fast they can get a guy to the majors is pretty funny.
I wouldn't put that in stone just yet
He’s got a tremendous arm, both strong and accurate, he’s extremely agile, well-coordinated, great feet, and he explodes really well from the crouched position. He’s rough around the edges in many aspects at catcher, and he has a lot of work to do on his receiving, but he definitely has the tools for the position.
Of course, his bat may be too good for them to wait on his defense to develop as others have mentioned.
If he does have to move off catcher, I’d be really interested in seeing him at second base. I think he’s athletic enough for the position and he’s got good hands as well. Imagine that, a Royals infield of Moustakas, Colon, Myers, and Hosmer.
You might want more defense up the middle but the value of Myers’ bat at second base would be tremendous and it’s a much easier position to pick up than catcher.
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by Alex Eisenberg on Jun 16, 2010 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
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