The Final Month before the Draft: Why Does It Matter?

Specifically, people tend to remember three things in this order:

1) What happened last
2) What happened first
3) What happened most often

So is it “right”? Well it IS right in that this is how our minds function.

I think you have to keep in mind the entire body of work of player in question. Anyone can hit a hot streak, can’t put too much stock in them

How important is the last few weeks of an amateur career in predicting professional success? If I were a MLB owner, I would sure want my scouts and statisticians to have this figured out. What does history tell us?

This question would be very important to me, because I would always be trying to build my team from the draft & through my minor league organization, rather than through trades. I would strongly resist paying the kind of salaries that you see in the majors today. I realize that my club would, to some extent, become a farm team for the rest of the league. But I just can’t understand this business of having one guy sitting next to another on the bench when one of them makes 20 or 30 times as much.

If the last weeks’ performance builds on previous performances, or shows a reversion to previous form (good or bad), then why shouldn’t it be considered? Kyle Blair just struck out 15 yesterday after a string of starts that have been much better than his early-season outings. Slow, steady improvement followed by an explosive performance is bound to be noted; it would be remiss not to. I think an evaluator is going to account for the level of opponent and probably want some corresponding change in approach as an explanation, but that’s just common sense. If Ranaudo suddenly finds his footing I guarantee it will be discussed both in terms of whether it’s just a hot streak or a return to form.

Overall though, why wouldn’t a guy’s performance at the end of a season be judged differently? It’s not occurring in a vacuum, it’s a continuum. Guys whose stuff is down (think Ranaudo and Hultzen in last year’s CWS) may be gassed, and conversely, a guy who finishes strong is at the very least exhibiting stamina and an ability to adjust, right?

The last games before the draft are HS playoffs and the conference and NCAA tournaments. For many players, this is the highest quality amateur competition they will face outside of showcases. Some organizations (the Braves are notably on the record as looking at this) also believe that there is such a thing as a big game player and want to see how a player does under the pressure of playoff and tournament games. Health, endurance, and learning are also factors.