Discussion Question: Overrated Draft Prospects
by John Sickels on May 5, 2010 4:07 PM EDT
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PrintOf the obvious potential first round picks for the 2010 draft, who strikes you as potentially overrated?
Just for myself, I haven't seen them in person, and I know what the scouting reports say, but watching draft video I like Karsten Whitson's videos better than Jameson Taillon's. I don't know if I will rank Whitson ahead of Taillon on my personal board...I won't make a board until later this month...and sometimes when a player gets super-hyped I tend to get annoyed with it and it can cloud my thinking, but am I wrong in thinking that Taillon isn't as far above the other high school pitchers as conventional wisdom says?
What do you guys think? Who is overrated heading into the final month pre-draft?
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You're right about the distance between Taillon and the field.
There’s been so much public thought of Taillon as a rare, once in a decade prep pitching prospect that people haven’t looked hard enough. I compared him to Jacob Turner from last year, and I feel pretty comfortable assigning them roughly equal upside and equal polish in their draft years. The difference is that Turner went from a late first round arm to the top of the class in his senior year, while Taillon has been the top of the 2010 prep class for a few years now.
Don’t get me wrong, I still like Taillon quite a bit, and he’s still the top prep arm on my personal ongoing board. Whitson’s very, very close, though, and I like Whitson’s athleticism more.
yeah
Yeah, I look at it like this
Whitson kind of reminds me of Zack Greinke.
Taillon kind of reminds me of Josh Beckett.
Agreed
Cole seems really high-risk to me.
by cardinalpride on May 5, 2010 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Overrated...
Bryce Brentz. In my opinion, he is not even a first round caliber prospect and should be more in the 2-3 round range, but will almost certainly be drafted in the top 20 picks.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
I agree that Cole
seems most overrated so far. Almost pure projectability. Now watch him go make us look stupid. Deck McGuire gets variable reports (everything from top marks to a Bryan Bullington comp) and may not be better than a #3, which is good but not great for a potential Top 10 name. Michael Choice might be overrated. Same middling competition issues as Brentz and I’ve seen questions on his projected bat as a pro.
John, the Beckett comp has been a common one, though most hedge and say Beckett was better at the same stage. Considering that it’s not an at all unreasonable comparison I have a hard time saying Taillon is overrated. He is starting with two potential plus pitches and excellent body control for a kid his size before he even hits player development. He seems to be a smart, motivated kid who is able to adjust from start to start and I have yet to see his makeup questioned. Andy’s comp of Jacob Turner is equally flattering imo. Neither spells overrated as Beckett and Turner are both superb talents. Anyone giving Taillon a generational talent tag is a knucklehead, so if that’s the basis for calling him overrated than I question the undertaking at hand here. And yeah, I still take him over Whitson because he has as good a chance as anyone in this class, college or h.s., to sit mid-90s with a commanded FB and a plus curve.
Chris Sale might be slightly overrated. I have a feeling that Asher Wojciechowski, who is bound to be taken quite a bit later, might be one guy who is potentially more valuable for instance.
I agree with you about Choice
Adopted Giant: Mike Krukow.
Grab Some Pine, Meat
K.F.I.S.T.F.
Hoping for BowkerMania to get consistent playing time at AT&T Park
by Gobroks on May 6, 2010 12:07 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Oh, and Austin Wilson?
There’s been so much scrutiny of his Stanford commit and tools that only recently has there been significant discussion of his lack of polish. Not that he doesn’t have everything it takes to develop, but he was bruited about as the best hitter in this h.s. class by many, when in fact it sounds like he’s much more of a project than that. I didn’t expect to see Donovan Tate comps for instance.
I like Austin Wilson
I don’t think he’s overrated at all. I’d definitely take him ahead of any other outfielder in this draft class. He’s not a finished product, but his ceiling is pretty massive.
I think a lot of the college hitters are overrated, simply because they happen to be the best of a weak college hitter class.
Oh, I like him too
Just nominated him because he’s being rated by many outlets as an equivalent or better bat, right now as we speak, than Sale and Castellanos, when he appears to be actually less polished than they are. Not a knock on his potential at all. It 2009 terms it might be like comparing Donovan Tate’s bat to Bobby Borchering’s heading into the draft. You can make a great case for him as best h.s. position player due to ceiling, but calling him the best bat is overrating imo. Make sense?
by blackoutyears on May 6, 2010 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Anything on Josh Sale?
I’ve heard he has the most power coming out in this draft, but everything else is very avaerage almost below-average. I would say he is pretty over rated. Some people had him going in the top 15, but would a guy with nothing but power get you there?
Sportin' Wood!!
I just got
chills, John. Don’t do that! ;-)
by blackoutyears on May 6, 2010 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Jameson Taillon
I remember early this year, saying that I really didn’t see much difference between Taillon and Jacob Turner.
And in return I was called an idiot.
Taillon could still end up being a better prospect in the end, and maybe even a better major league pitcher, but I’m digging this sweet vindication.
Albert Pujols is a god, and you my friend should be doing no less than graveling at his feet.
Zach Cox
I think Zach Cox is the most overrated player. Most people have him going top 10 but I see him as nothing more than a late 1st to 2nd round pick. I dont think Taillon is overrated and I dont think Whitson is better than Taillon. Others:
Overrated:
Manny Machado
Dylan Covey
Bryce Brentz
Austin Wilson
Chris Sale
Kyle Blair
Kaleb Cowart
Underrated:
Yordy Cabrera (the best hitter available IMO)
Barret Loux
Cameron Bedrosian
Levon Washington
Brian Ragira
IDK
I think Blair is one of those was overrated now perhaps underrated guys. Everyone has seemed down on him this year to the point that he’s dropped out of most draft Top 100s, so I’m not sure how he can be overrated. I’ve been following his starts all year and he’s really come on the last five weeks. At this point I’m actually starting to wonder how much behind Loux he actually is. Cabrera had a very poor start to the year and is old for h.s. Tough to gauge him, right? Are you from FL and get to see him?
I’m with you on Ragira. Love his bat. Is Cowart overrated as a hitter, pitcher, or both? I thoroughly disagree on Covey, but then I would. I’ve been an utter apologist since Aflac.
by blackoutyears on May 8, 2010 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Christian Colon
I see him projected kinda high sometimes but when you read detailed reports he comes off as more alow first/high second guy to me. Is the “makeup” indicator really THAT high?
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