2010 Mock Draft
MOCK DRAFT
In doing this mock draft, I'm considering signability, projected budgets, and past drafting patterns for each team. The draft is still a month away and lots of things will change in the interim, so don't take this too seriously. It is meant as a way to get discussion going more than anything else at this point. Note that this is NOT a draft ranking list of how I rate the talent.
1) Washington Nationals: Bryce Harper, C, College of Southern Nevada.
I'm a little concerned about the makeup issue, but not enough to override the fact that the kid is a monster player. The Nationals have had a year to prepare themselves for the sticker shock, so I don't expect money will stand in the way either.
2) Pittsburgh Pirates: Drew Pomeranz, LHP, University of Mississippi
The Pirates don't have a great track record with "safe" college pitchers, but Pomeranz has more upside than most.
3) Baltimore Orioles: Karsten Whitson, RHP, Chipley HS (Florida)
Whitson is usually ranked behind Jameson Taillon on draft lists. But the Orioles pulled a surprise with Matt Hobgood last year, and Whitson's stock continues to rise.
4) Kansas City Royals: Jameson Taillon, RHP, The Woodlands HS (Texas)
The Royals prefer pitching, they prefer high school talent, and they aren't afraid of price tags.
5) Cleveland Indians: Chris Sale, LHP, Florida Gulf Coast University
Has better stuff than the Jeremy Sowers/David Huff types, and he won't need long in the minors.
6) Arizona Diamondbacks: Anthony Ranaudo, RHP, Louisiana State
I'll assume that he's healthy and that the DBacks are looking to add some pitching to all the hitters they drafted last year.
7) New York Mets: Deck McGuire, RHP, Georgia Tech
The Mets are usually conservative in the draft, and I don't think that will change this year, so I have them opting for a nice safe polished college arm.
8) Houston Astros: Zach Cox, 3B, University of Arkansas
Cox has the right mix of affordability and upside to attract the budget-conscious-but-no-longer-completely-insane- on-draft-day Astros.
9) San Diego Padres: Manny Machado, SS, Brito Private HS (Florida)
The Padres paid for Tate last year, and if Machado actually falls this far, could they pass him up?
10) Oakland Athletics: Michael Choice, OF, University of Texas-Arlington
This will look like an overdraft, but the Athletics pulled a similar move with Jemile Weeks a couple of years ago, and Choice's power/patience profile fits Oakland's model.
11) Toronto Blue Jays: Christian Colon, SS, Cal State Fullerton
Good tools, good bat, good makeup. Main issue is possible bonus demands, but after last year's debacle the Jays may be looking for a different course from previous conservative drafting.
12) Cincinnati Reds: Yasmani Grandal, C, University of Miami-Florida
The Reds need a catching prospect, and Grandal has a better shot at developing than Devin Mesoraco.
13) Chicago White Sox: Bryce Brentz, OF, Middle Tennessee State University
The White Sox like tools and Brentz has those. He also has the college background they have preferred in recent early picks.
14) Milwaukee Brewers: Josh Sale, OF, Bishop Blanchett High School (Washington)
The Brewers went with pitching last year, but Sale's bat could be difficult to pass up at this slot in the draft.
15) Texas Rangers: Brett Eibner, RHP, University of Arkansas
The Rangers have financial restrictions, but Eibner should be reasonably affordable and offers the kind of athleticism the Rangers scouting staff looks for in a pitcher.
16) Chicago Cubs: Jesse Hahn, RHP, Virginia Tech
There are some injury issue with Hahn but kidney stones are a temporary problem and the Cubs are known to take some risks in the first round.
17) Tampa Bay Rays: A.J. Cole, RHP, Oviedo High School, Florida
Cole has a tremendous ceiling and would fit well with Tampa's development system for young pitchers.
18) Los Angeles Angels: Dylan Covey, RHP, Maranatha High School, California
He is local, he is athletic, and has a high ceiling, a perfect Angels pick.
19) Houston Astros: Alex Wimmers, RHP, Ohio State University
Should be affordable, and won't need long in the minors.
20) Boston Red Sox: Austin Wilson, OF, Harvard Westlake High School, California
Mega-tools with excellent makeup, which the Red Sox like. He also has a large price tag to buy him away from Stanford, but the Red Sox could afford that more than most clubs.
21) Minnesota Twins: Justin O'Conner, SS-C, Cowan High School, Indiana
The Twins are another team drawn to tools and youth, and often march to their own drummer. I can see O'Conner as a logical pick, a few slots earlier than expected but fitting the profile of the organization.
22) Texas Rangers: Brandon Workman, RHP, University of Texas
He's local, has a high ceiling, and should be signable, important consideration for the Rangers this year. An Eibner/Workman first round combo would help enrich the pitching in the system even further.
23) Florida Marlins: Yordy Cabrera, SS, Lakeland High School, Florida
The Marlins like upside but have budget restrictions; as such, an older high school pick like Cabrera seems a good fit.
24) San Francisco Giants: Kaleb Cowart, RHP, Cook County HS, Georgia
Someone with a great ceiling always drops, and in this mock it is Cowart. They went with a high school pitcher from Georgia last year (Zack Wheeler) and here's another one for their pitching development system.
25) St. Louis Cardinals: Nick Castellanos, 3B, Archbishop McCarthy HS, Florida
Not a typical Cardinals pick, but his bat is strong and, while you're not supposed to draft for need, he could be a long term solution at third base.
26) Colorado Rockies: Kevin Gausman, RHP, Grandview High School, Colorado
They went with a high school pitcher last year, and I think the home-state product would be too good to pass up at this slot.
27) Philadelphia Phillies: Chevez Clarke, OF, Marietta High School, Georgia
He's ultra-toolsy but somewhat raw, a perfect Phillies pick.
28) Los Angeles Dodgers: Tyrell Jenkins, RHP, Henderson High School, Texas
The Dodgers love tools and love high school pitching. They also have a budget to work with this year, but if Jenkins can be bought away from Baylor with reasonable money, he would fit perfectly here.
29) Los Angeles Angels: Sammy Solis, LHP, University of San Diego
Multiple picks mean the Angels have to at least consider affordability. They've shown attraction to lefty starters and Solis shouldn't need a lot of time in the minors.
30) Los Angeles Angels: Griffin Murphy, LHP, Redlands Valley High School, California:
Young California arm from the left side and projectable, like Tyler Skaggs last year this should be attractive to the Angels.
31) Tampa Bay Rays: Gary Brown, OF, Cal State Fullerton
If they take someone like A.J. Cole at 17, Brown makes sense here as a signable guy with upside.
32) New York Yankees: Matt Harvey, RHP, University of North Carolina
He's very difficult to project, given his high upside but erratic college performance. But if he falls this far he'd make sense for the Yankees, given their need and willingness to chase upside picks with some risk.
Supplemental round coming up tomorrow
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Whatever happened to LeVon Washington?
After the Rays failed to sign him last year at 31, I saw some early prospect mavens projecting him as a top-10 pick. Now he seems to have fallen off the boards entirely.
Rough year
I have not heard a recent update within the last week or so, but he was not swinging the bat well at all early on.
Don't know the level of competition, but season stats:
.355/.470/.654
8 2B
8 HR
7/10 SB
22/18 BB/K
This college has produced several big leaguers, so I’d imagine the level of competition is solid.
Tools Whore
Brewers shouldnt go offense
Still need tons of pitching. And their top pcik last year isnt even an impact arm. Theyve got Brett Lawrie in place to take over in RF, if ready, when Corey Hart is gone, making the pick for a corner OF not a very good one. Not to say they would be drafting for need (or not drafting because of surplus) is the case here.
If all went as you predict here, AJ Cole would have to be their pick, or at least the right one. But what do I know, the only draft pick of theirs ive liked in the last few years was Rickie Weeks.
Needs...
I agree. And for the most part I believe early first-round picks should go to pitching unless it’s a top-five pick and a Donovan Tate-type is available. This is also discarding any signability concerns.
The Brewers need high level pitching. They have a nice young group going to hit with Peralta, Arnett, Scarpetta, Odorizzi, Heckathorn, but non have really top-flight potential minus maybe Odorizzi.
We already have a couple of higher-ceiling OF’s in Gindl, Kentrail Davis, Lorenzo Cain; not counting what happens with Lawrie and Gamel.
Completely agree.
Taillon shouldn't fall below Balt
Hopgood was a budget based pick. Don’t see that this year.
Fat man is no more,
Bursting on through Heaven's Door
Come on in, says Bill
don't get it
Basically, Baltimore will have taken Hobgood over several other prep pitchers the year before primarily to save themselves money . . .but then they turn around and spend a huge amount of money on Taillon, who isn’t as good a prospect as Matzek or Turner?
Better says who?
Everything I’ve read about Taillon, both heading into this season, and in teems of raw stuff has the buzz level on Taillon much louder than it was Forrest either Turner or Matzek.
What pundits have purr Taillon below the scouting grades assigned to Turner or Matzek?
Fat man is no more,
Bursting on through Heaven's Door
Come on in, says Bill
just saying
None other than Andy Seiler commented in a recent online interview that Jacob Turner compared “favorably” to Taillon. Seeing as many people had Matzek neck and neck with Turner, I’m willing to say that the same can be said for Matzek.
Taillon has been known for a longer period of time, which is where the hype comes from. He’s a very nice prospect but he’s turned in some absolute stinkers this year that are utterly inexplicable for a guy with his arm, which is concerning.
Not as good as Matzek or Turner?
This is a 180 from everything I have read. All I keep reading is that scouts universally think Taillon is a better prospect than anything we saw from the 2009 draft.
I don't buy
Taillon as better than Matzek, but he has to be comparable to Turner I thinkand I’m with Frederick and joegonzo in preferring him. As for the “stinkers” he’s turned in, at least one of them was followed by a 19-whiff performance. He detected a flaw in his delivery and made the necessary adjustment between starts. He’s a smart kid with a lot of upside. Honestly, most here are relying on the too and fro of scouting opinion, so let’s not get too carried away by which way the wind is blowing this week. This is like the OMGCovey’slostvelocity!!! cries the last three weeks, only to see him sitting 92-93 for most of his last start, all the while still having allowed one earned run all season. If you’ve seen Taillon pitch you know he’s got a good starter’s body, few red flags mechanically, and excellent stuff waiting to be fully harnessed. It’ll be interesting to see what he has in the tank for the playoffs.
by blackoutyears on May 5, 2010 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions
thanks for lumping me in with the masses, but no
Who was crying about Covey’s velocity drop? Unless his delivery had changed (which it hadn’t), he was obviously fine. You’ll find exceptionally few young pitchers who don’t have considerable fluctuations in velocity. I was unaware that anybody was considering this to be an issue . . .
I don’t mean to say that Taillon’s not a good young arm, and I don’t think I did.
That being said, it’s a little crazy that this time last year we had tons of people saying Turner and Matzek were “special arms”. Now suddenly we have people saying that they’re good, but Taillon is even better and even more “special”.
They can’t ALL be special. Sometimes even the best prep pitchers going into a draft merely project as above-average starters (not necessarily referring to any of the three prospects mentioned here).
Who?
It was remarked on in multiple venues that report on the draft, and it was significant enough to get 30 people out to see Covey’s start. Apparently it was less obvious to them that he was okay? And we can’t have it both ways: if Covey’s velo drop isn’t especially concerning, then perhaps you’re overstating the impact of Taillon’s bad outings as well. Apparently his truly bad game was explicable as he stated that he made an adjustment and backed that assertion up with a 19-strikeout game the following week.
Who’s saying all arms are special? We’re talking about arguably the top three h.s. arms in the last two drafts. I think most have agreed that h.s. arms are where the much of the top shelf talent lies in the 2009 and 2010 drafts, so yes, under optimum, injury-free circumstances, ALL three of these pitchers could be special. And there are at least a dozen more guys between the last draft and this one that could be special too.
by blackoutyears on May 8, 2010 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Taillon
Struck out 13 in a playoff win this week. Reported also that at least one scouting dept. is treating him more like a pitcher coming out of college than a h.s. arm. The indicates a confidence in Taillon’s polish and stuff not generally attached to a h.s. arm.
by blackoutyears on May 10, 2010 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Taillon will fall
I think Baltimore likes quanity in their prep arms over quanity. But I dont think they take another random prep arm, i think they go Machado or a college arm. If Pomeranz is there I think he’s a definite possibility.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on May 5, 2010 9:27 AM EDT up reply actions
quantity over quality*
sorry for that poor showing in typing skills
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on May 5, 2010 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Reds
John, are you not buying Devin Mesoraco’s breakthrough so far this season? The only red flag I see is a low LD% but I don’t fully trust Batted Ball data from the minors so it doesn’t concern me that much. As a Reds fan, I’m fairly encouraged by his start and was a little surprised you pegged that as a need. I don’t usually pay attention to prospects until they are drafted. Would you say that Grandel is the best available in that spot or is your thinking that it’s a need pick?
meso
Let’s see what he’s hitting in July….given the totality of his track record, I don’t trust it yet.
Grandel’s stock has been rising and he coudl get into the top ten in some scenarios. He should be affordable and would fit nicely for the Reds.
Many think....
he is going to the Roayls at 4. I would not be suprised with the way teams have been valuing catchers the past few years. A left handed one with good defense and a good bat is worthy of being a top 5 pick in my opinion.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
many?
i saw one. i could see it happening but it’s still a month before the draft. lots of shit can happen.
baseball rules.
Yea...
I have already heard it about 4 or 5 times from different places. It really makes a lot of sense too.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
could you post some links?
i mean, i’d probably have seen at least a few. help me out here.
baseball rules.
I feel better about Mesoraco
now that he’s out of the FSL. And SSS or not, his K rate is down drastically and his BABIP is actually lower than his batting avg. If he does this for another few weeks he’ll be proving himself in Double-A at age 22. And to be clear, nothing Mesoraco is doing should deter the Reds from considering Grandal.
by blackoutyears on May 5, 2010 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions
can't see the 'Stros going with a college pitcher in the early rounds...
If you look at Bobby Heck’s history he rarely takes a college pitcher in the first couple rounds of the draft. As much as I would like to see the Astros take a Mike Leake look-a-like in Wimmers I just don’t see it happening. I love the Cox pick at #8 and hope they take him if he’s there but I see them going with Gausman or Cowart if this scenario plays out at #19. The past 2 drafts they took Lyles & Seaton with their 1st 2 pitchers in ’08 and took Bushue & Hyatt with their 1st 2 pitchers in ’09.
Can't see the Pirates...
draft a pitcher in the first round. I think they go with a bat like Cox or Machado and maybe even Colon if they feel like he is good enough.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
After seeing the Pirates taking a position player or college pitcher on EVERY mock in the world so far, I predict that they take Tallion. I think people are over-analyzing the Sanchez pick last year. Maybe they just really liked the guy. He hasn’t exactly disappointed so far.
charity standing orders
I don't know about that...
but their strategy seems pretty simple to me. Draft a position player with some upside in the first round that also fills an organizational position of need(unless someone like Alvrez is availbale) then take high upside players in later rounds who fall because of signability and sign as many as possible. It is a good draft strategy and one I think they won’t stray from. Well, maybe next year if Rendon isn’t available because of the quality of the arms.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
Yeah, but
you’re basing that off of one draft. I mean they also drafted about 40 pitchers last year, but we’re not expecting to see that again. They may very well reach on a signable position player again this year, but I don’t think it’s as cut and dry as some people are making it. The sample size is 1 so far, and you could make a case that getting a plus defensive catcher that they liked a lot is not comparable to getting a pretty decent 3B prospect or a low ceiling 2B/SS. If anything, I could see them go for a plus defensive SS with some hitting ability, but I’m not sure who that would be.
charity standing orders
Wilson and the Sox
Seem like a perfect match but I pray he falls to the Jay Blues supplemental pick.
Agreed on Baltimore
I just have not seen enough evidence that they will open their wallets for Taillon, why wouldn’t they do it for Matzek last year?
I take it the Jays pick would be BPA
As they’re now pretty deep at SS, or are you seeing Colon as better than Hecheverria/Pastornicky/Jackson and Pierre. 3B would be an obvious pick for the Jays so would they jump on Cox if both were still on the table?
Jays Draft
Assuming Harper, Pomeranz, Sale, Machado, Taillon and Cox are firm top 10 guys, my draft board for the Blue Jays at pick #11 would look like this:
1. Karsten Whitson
2. Anthony Ranaudo
3. Christian Colon
4. Josh Sale
5. AJ Cole
And here’s what I’d like to see the Jays do with their first four picks(assuming all these guys are still around by the time they pick):
- Karsten Whitson
- Matt Harvey
- Tyrell Jenkins(he probably doesn’t last this far, I know)
- Levon Washington
This draft would make me ridiculously happy.
Washington a recovery project?
After this years troubles is he worth a grab, though I agree the tools are tasty at that point in the draft.
by TtD on May 4, 2010 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions
like those picks
I would be impressed with that haul as well, and I can see a situation where all four might be available at those picks.
sounds expensive
Whitson seems to be pushing into the clear No. 2 prep pitcher slot, even rivaling Taillon sometimes. I’m sure his camp is aware of this, and I’m guessing his bonus demands are going to reflect this. Prediction: Whitson will ask for at least Shelby Miller money ($2.8M, I think) and possibly up into the mid-$3M range, which would seem to preclude his selection by the Jays.
Jenkins is probably going to go over-slot as well, perhaps significantly so, and I’m kind of skeptical that Washington will take less than $1M to sign given his leverage and the fact that he passed up that much last year. As for Harvey . . .well, it’ll be interesting to see what he wants. I don’t expect anywhere near the money he passed up coming out of HS, but over-slot seems pretty likely given who his agent is.
So, let’s try this blend:
11 – A.J. Cole (should be signable at slot or a little above)
34 – Barret Loux (college pitcher with good upside)
38 – Hunter Morris (move him immediately to corner OF)
41 – Drew Cisco (polished prep pitcher who should be an easy sign in this slot and will provide a solid return)
I went with a pitching-heavy approach because the Jays don’t have many arms, and based on the drafting of Eliopoulos and Barrett last year they want some. If you think Cisco will stay on the board until the second round you can go for another arm that will sign for slot or go with Reggie Golden, but Cisco seems like a good target for a team with multiple picks (the Rays would probably love him). The one hitter is Morris, who is a safe pick with impact potential.
Expensive
I know, just going off of AA/Beeston’s word that they want to put big money into the draft(16M was the number that was quoted)
NY Mets
Are likely to pick a high ceiling HS arm.
Buzz is either Cole or Covey
Fat man is no more,
Bursting on through Heaven's Door
Come on in, says Bill
Love the Whiston Placement
Hate the Chris Sale placement
is there any chance...
that taillon goes to the pirates?
As a Jays fan, it’s my somewhat biased but also educated (about the comments of Paul Beeston) opinion that the Jays are willing to spend whatever they think a player is worth.
With that thought in mind, is Austin Wilson – based on talent and makeup and the like – a worthy pick at 11, or a reach?
While I’m very much on board with "best available player – if Colon and Wilson are comparable players (in terms of potential value) I have to wonder if the field is not clearer for an outfielder than for a shortstop in the Jays organization.
Who would you have them take?
Not being confrontational, just genuinely wondering. Im not excited about the rangers operating on a limited budget either.
Honestly, im hoping that Choice falls to the Rangers but that is a local bias.
"JD gets complete blame or credit for what happens in 2010 and I think Nolan wants it that way. JD is paid to be a real GM and needs to start performing like one." - Josey Wales
by Michael Cave on May 5, 2010 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
With an unlimited budget?
Cole, Castallenos.
Realistically? Hahn and Cabrera.
http://oursaviorchuck.ytmnd.com/
I would love Cabrera with that second pick
A good combo of drafting BPA and for need. Ive heard he may end up getting too big for SS and would be a good candidate to switch to 3B.
What will really bother me is if a someone falls unexpectedly into their lap a la Smoak and they cant pull the trigger because of budget constraints. I dont know if there really is a guy who is a candidate for that a 5-10 spot fall but i would hate it if the Rangers HAD to pass on him.
"JD gets complete blame or credit for what happens in 2010 and I think Nolan wants it that way. JD is paid to be a real GM and needs to start performing like one." - Josey Wales
by Michael Cave on May 5, 2010 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah
I’m pretty much taking it for granted they won’t be able to take value at 15. The team simply can’t hazard losing the pick altogether. I just hope the FO is allowed to pull the trigger on a high-upside talent with pick #2.
http://oursaviorchuck.ytmnd.com/
I doubt the pitching bunches that high
Also doubt Gausman drops that far. Not a bad draft
You guys win. You can keep your little marked-out piece of internet territory. Spend your days communicating via keyboard with people too ugly for the real world and too nerdy for anyone to care, anyway. Your piece of land is here. Do the rest of civilization a favor and stay within its limits. You bore me. Have fun with your nightly sobs and screams into your pillow over your inability to attract a good mate, Radiohead. ~The Hooligan
If Gausman is available to the Cardinals.
I think that they would take him rather than Castellanos. While 3b depth is a need, so is SP really, and to be honest, I haven’t looked at Castellanos much.
Both are really interesting options though. I just think they would prefer the pitching.
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
will Castellanos sign?
I know the Cardinals laid out big money for Shelby Miller last year, but Castellanos has been rumored to want a crazy amount of money to pass up college.
It's a valid point.
The money from Pujols has to come from somewhere. I think that cuts in the scouting department would have to come if we really need money for Pujols.
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
which is why Gausmann makes sense
two prep arms in Miller and Gausmann would give the Cardinals young, cost-controlled arms when the budget crunch from Holliday and Pujols(presumably) really kick in. If these arms develop, then there’s no need for terrible Lohse contracts or what have you. In this scenario, I can see a rotation in 5 years of AW, Garcia, Lynn, Miller, and Gausmann
"...and pujols has given st louis the lead"
The Best Defensive Play I Have Seen in Person
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and of course
Harvey would make sense for my previous point, too.
"...and pujols has given st louis the lead"
The Best Defensive Play I Have Seen in Person
follow me on teh twitterz @greenfieldt
On Castellanos...
I have already heard multiple times that he may not stick at third. I love his bat, but he is just not that valuable to the Cardinals if he isn’t at 3B. Also, just putting this in their, but I like Matt Davidson from last year better than him.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
Hahn to the Cubs
It makes sense. He’s a guy from a strong conference, the Cubs have strong ties to Virginia through Billy Swoope, the Cubs hate drafting HS players, and he has pretty good athleticism and upside from what I hear. I have no qualms with that pick.
Eibner’s another guy who could make sense for them for similar reasons.
Would be pleasantly surprised to see Wilson fall to Boston
I’ll keep my fingers crossed
Who loves orange soda?
hmm
not a fan of the florida pick really would like pitching we need more in the system cowart would be rough to pass up
I don’t want to advocate drafting for need, but unless the Phillies deploy the dime defense with 6 outfielders in 2015, I’d love to see them start accumulating some top shelf infield talent. The system is heavily stocked with high ceiling outfielders and pitchers (both high ceiling and future bullpen guys), but is fairly barren in the infield.

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