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Around SBN: What If This Is It For The Celtics? End Of An Era Looming

LAA MOD #2

Unfortunately, due to the MOD Directory not working as planned (people continued to rec the daily posts without need to, pushing the Directory off the front page), I'm having to post this. Sorry in advance, but I wanted to make sure that anybody interested got to weigh in on my draft process.

As we approach the Minor League Ball Mock Draft, I've been trying to figure out how the rest of the community will draft in the first 17 picks, in preparation for my own first selection at No. 18. This is how I think the first 17 picks will go, in no particular order:

 

Bryce Harper
Jameson Taillon
Manny Machado
Yasmani Grandal
Karsten Whitson
Josh Sale
Dylan Covey
Stetson Allie
Drew Pomeranz
Austin Wilson
Matt Harvey
Michael Choice
Nick Castellanos
Zach Cox
Chris Sale
Anthony Ranaudo
Deck McGuire


There are a few guys in play who could jump into the conversation:

James Paxton (could vary a lot over the next few days)
A.J. Cole (upside)
Zach Lee (Minor League Ball Mock Drafters love upside, don't care about signability)
Christian Colon (safer pick seems to be slipping slightly)
Alex Wimmers (I think he drops like a rock here though)
Kolbrin Vitek (might go to a team that wants a blend of safety of upside in a college bat)

Out of the 17 I listed, the most likely candidates to drop are probably Ranaudo and Choice. Ranaudo doesn't make sense for me given signability and I prefer Vitek to Choice. Matt Harvey and Chris Sale jump out to me as guys that might slip a bit, and I'd take either of them. I'm skeptical that any of the top HS pitchers will get to me, and all would be signability issues save perhaps A.J. Cole.

 

(Preliminary) Big Board for 18:


1. Chris Sale, LHP
2. Matt Harvey, RHP
3. Christian Colon, SS (I'll bet he'll sign with the Angels)
4. Kolbrin Vitek, 2B (I really like his bat, think he'll improve by concentrating on hitting)
5. Brandon Workman, RHP (love his arm, seems like a guy the real Angels would take)

At 29 and 30, it gets a little dicier. I expect all of the names I listed above to be gone by 29 (with the possible exceptions of Lee, who won't be signable by me, and Wimmers, who I probably would take at 30). I don't intend to get out of the first round without at least one prep arm, but fortunately I really like the guys that should be on the board. I'm also big on prep C Justin O'Connor - his athleticism and raw power make me look past my typical aversion to prep catchers. If I didn't get Colon or Vitek at 18, a college bat would be a nice addition at the end of the first as well.

(Preliminary) Big(ger) Board for 29 $ 30:


1. Alex Wimmers, RHP (guessing a 30 percent chance that he is here)
2. Peter Tago, RHP (I am REALLY high on him)
3. Justin O'Connor, C (high upside prep bat)
4. Mike Folty!@#$%^&*, RHP (the Tago back-up plan, big on him too)
5. Sammy Solis, LHP (a solid college lefty to add safety to the class)
6. Jedd Gyorko, 2B/3B (slight overdraft but as safe a college bat as you can get here)
7. Cam Bedrosian, RHP (an upper half of the first round guy if he was 2 inches taller)
8. Jarrett Parker, OF (toolsy college guy, might blossom outside UVA)
9. Chevez Clarke, OF (good feeling about him)
10. Drew Vettleson, OF (nice bat)

Heading into the last two early picks (37 and 40), decisions have to be made. Since I'll be off the clock for 40+ picks, overdrafts are a reasonable possibility if it's somebody I'm really big on and they'll likely be off the board by the time I'm up again. So I'll jump ahead to the board.

(Preliminary) Big Board for picks 37 and 40:

1. Austin Wates, OF (like the tools)
2. Hunter Morris, 1B (I like how he raised his game this year, good bat)
3. Reggie Golden, OF (nice talent, would he would first round money?)
4. Robbie Aviles, RHP (don't like him as much as others, but if he was here I'd look)
5. Delino DeShields, OF (all speed, don't trust the rest but he'd be an interesting selection)

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continuing on - pick 81 stuff

Minor correction from earlier: Zach Lee is a RHP, not a LHP

I figured I’d post about the second round pick, #81.

By pick #81, I’m hoping to have at least a couple of arms, and a good blend of college and prep talent. Pick 81 is especially useful because it lets me restore balance to the draft if necessary. Considering that I’ll have been waiting for 40 picks, I’m expecting my previous rankings to be mostly if not entirely useless here, and since I have to wait another 30 picks for my next pick, I’m guessing that I won’t get a second shot at most if any of these fellows.

(Preliminary) Big(gest) Board for pick 81

1. Taijuan Walker, RHP (I have a random good feeling about him)
2. Jesse Biddle, LHP (not sure he’ll get here with dearth of LHP, but would balance out with two RHP likely earlier)
3. Tony Wolters, SS (think he compares favorably to Chris Owings at the same point)
4. Scott Frazier, RHP (intriguing upside here)
5. Cameron Rupp, C (I think Micah Gibbs will be gone, but Rupp is a sure catcher with serious pop)
6. Michael Lorenzen, OF (toolsy with solid bat, seems like a good bet to blossom in pro ball)
7. Kellen Sweeney, SS (good fundamentals guy; could go very high to Blue Jays in real draft)
8. Rob Rasmussen, LHP (love his attitude, seems pretty high floor to me)
9. Zach Cates, RHP (impressive upside, could rise up this board easily)
10. Matt Lipka, INF (not sure on signability, but awesome upside)
11. Tony Thompson, 3B (slight reach, but I really buy the bat)
12. Gauntlett Eldemire, OF (skeptical of him, but still thinking about the raw tools)
13. Todd Cunningham (a decent college bat to add to the class)
14. Chance Ruffin, RHP (solid reliever, perhaps better as a setup guy in the majors)
15. Randy LeBlanc, RHP (projection with good velocity already)

by mrkupe on May 28, 2010 3:57 AM EDT reply actions  

No comments?

Disappointing. I know SOMEBODY is reading this. I didn’t just post this so other mock drafters could see what I’m doing so that they can draft around me. :p

by mrkupe on May 29, 2010 3:17 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

@18 I'd take Colon from those you listed

@29+30 I like Folty and Solis, Folty has the upside, Solis has more safety, it’s a nice pair.

Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson

by gore51 on May 30, 2010 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

thanks for responding!

I’m not sure Colon gets there . . .he’s not spectacular, but he’s a solid contributor and would give me some leeway to take some risks in the draft class.

I’m looking more and more at Wimmers at No. 18 . . .I think he’s undervalued there and would be a great start to a draft, especially with multiple picks. I’m doubting any of the top prep arms will be available in this draft, meaning that if I want a prep arm early, I’d probably have to reach for somebody in the near tier.

29/30 is a tough call, as I’m really not sure which of the high school preps will be on the board, and of course it’s hard to say who might be developed improperly IRL (although not much I can say about that). Fortunately a lot of those guys are arms that I really like, and I’m guessing at least a few will get to me. I omitted him originally because I think he’ll be gone before 29, but Tyrell Jenkins would be an interesting guy to grab. There’s 4-5 prep arms I’d consider there, and I don’t really feel bad about not getting one or the other.

Solis is very solid, although of course the pick there might partially depend on whether or not I got an arm at 18 (I like diversifying). If I took a bat, Justin O’Connor would be hard to pass if he was still on the board. Still, there are multiple college bats that look nice there.

by mrkupe on May 30, 2010 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wimmers and Lago

I havent looked at draft prospects a lot but, fresh eyes can be good
I see why you like Wimmers – love his pace- nice overhand curve- showed big improvement this season

Lago didnt impres me at first, too slight, but the more I watched he is just wiry- there is arm strength and arm action there! He reminds me of the A’s kid – Tyson Ross some bodywise

by casejud on May 31, 2010 12:31 AM EDT reply actions  

ah, always glad to have your input

Wimmers is a fine, fine arm. Good three pitch mixes are at a premium this year, and Wimmers has got that.

Tyson Ross is a REALLY good comp for Peter Tago. Lots of arm strength, shows potential all over the place. Personally, I’d love to see him go IRL to the Rays at 31 – he’s exactly the sort of guy that they love to mold.

As I said above, the second tier prep arms all look terrific. I think Folty might be gone by 29 in this draft, but if he’s gone that increases the odds of Jenkins being around, and guys like Aviles and Bedrosian are also guys that I wouldn’t mind popping at the end of the first.

by mrkupe on May 31, 2010 4:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

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