High School Pitchers
by John Sickels on May 19, 2010 10:00 PM EDT
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I used to have a very strong aversion to high school pitchers as prospects, thinking that they were excessively risky investments. Over the last five years my thinking has changed on this; they aren't exactly "safe," but I don't think the risk premium is as high as it once was.
Scouting is better than it used to be; youth programs are better; modern showcases and travel teams give scouts a better look now than they got 30, 20, or even 10 years ago. I think pro organizations in general are also more aware of the necessity to keep workloads for their young pitchers at a reasonable level. This is not necessarily true at the college level: North Carolina's Matt Harvey threw an obscene 156 pitches in a recent outing.
Many young pitchers benefit from college, of course: some aren't ready for the rigors of pro ball physically or emotionally and develop better in the incubator of a good program. But what about an elite high school pitcher, with first or second round talent? If your son was a potential high round pick, would you advise him to take the money or go to college? Obviously it would be a case-by-case thing and depend much on what the kid wants, but which way would you lean?
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If the potential bonus is $500K+, I have to lean towards signing.
Stanford/Rice full ride? That makes it tougher. Still, college will probably be there later in life, the money may very well not be. The opportunity to start off a career earlier is also a benefit.
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Stanford full ride
Rice is a good school, but nobody outside Houston hires you because you went there, and you never get to meet future Silly Valley-entrepreneur/VC/PE types who might plunk you in a firm because they liked you in college.
otherwise, take the money, pay your taxes and stash a minimum amount in TIPS in a Roth, and the rest in a muni ladder to augment your income and make life more pleasant. it’ll fund your going back to school after your arm falls off.
Don't Agree with that completely
Rice does have a stronger reputation in Houston and Texas than anywhere else, but I feel that having gone to Rice has always been a positive point in my favor, and I do not live in Houston. Certainly, Stanford has more pull than Rice on a national level. Stanford is also a much larger school with many more alumni and bigger professional programs (e.g. law school, med school, business school — Rice does not even have the first two).
I agree that if the bonus was larger enough I would advise taking the money. You can go to college later if the baseball thing does not work out.
Keep Moving Forward.
by ColoradoOwl on May 21, 2010 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
But...
I sure hope that Jameson Taillon decides to follow through on his commitment to Rice! :-)
Keep Moving Forward.
by ColoradoOwl on May 21, 2010 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Vanderbilt
You could probably throw Vandy in that conversation of a consistent top 25 baseball program/top 25 academic school with nosebleed tuition rates. Seems to have worked out for David Price and Mike Minor. USC is in that mix as well.
by two fishsticks on May 20, 2010 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions
There's a few items for thought here
On the one hand, some college opportunities might not be there later in life: Many top colleges are much more open to enrolling bring 18 year olds than they are about enrolling 20-30 somethings that have been out of school for many years. On the other hand, as you mentioned, the bonuses may be there now but not in 2-4 years. On the flip side, one’s perspective at 18-19 is limited compared to one’s perspective later in life. Not to discredit the average college student, but a kid straight out of high school may not appreciate the value of an education as much as an adult with more life experience and life lessons may appreciate it.
All that said, it also depends on where the player projects to get drafted. A potential 1st-2nd round pick is going to get a sizable bonus. Once you get to the 3rd round and beyond the bonus amounts drop steeply, and there quickly comes a point where the most marginal utility for the kid lies in taking the free ride and the education.
first round money?
i’m hiding those college brochures. you can take that money, invest it wisely, and you’re set.
besides, i’m not sure how much these jocks get of out of college. the probably take a bunch of easy classes and just drift through. i will admit, however, that i bet it’s a fun 3 years
i just realized something
if he always wanted to go to college, the value of a full ride could be around $200k, so it might make sense in that case
Bird in hand...
I would trust the development better in minors and since he’s under 21 probably set up an investment plan and financial management plan in case it doesn’t work out and college is plan b. If I didn’t think my son was socially prepared for minor leagues I would be willing to look at colleges but what type of coach and program be be carefully evaluated.
College later
Gotta go with the pros if the money is there at the top of the draft. As has been said, a degree is no guarantee of success (although a useful degree carries legitimate weight in the biz world).
As long as the money doesn’t get squandered on the Porsche 911 with the Blaupunkt Quadraphonic stereo, a la Nuke Laloosh, you can go back later in life. Watching 20 year old college starters get abused is ridiculous; get them in a quality college program that isn’t brutalizing their future and I might consider it, but my first choice would be to send him to the minors as a high pick. My wife completely disagrees with me.
Lets be real!
Whats making it? Going to college and taking a job for 30 grand to start out? Then by the time your 35 yrs old your making 50 grand? Thats what the REAL world thinks MAKING IT is.
I wouldn’t lean. I’d sprint towards pro baseball!! I’d advise him and I’d support him in signing that pro contract 100%. People always look at pro baseball and say risk. They say that because most all have never done it. They don’t think its a risk if you do what EVERYBODY else does. Go to college and settle in to blue collar life. Pro baseball has many great things to offer and one of those is a 1st pay check that NO college degree can offer or even guarantee.
Take the money! Work hard and see if you can become a multi millionaire by making it to the major leagues!
Frederick your wrong!
Harrington WALKED AWAY from 4 million dollars from the Colorado Rockies. He and his family listed to some poor advise. That family was low income and walked away from 4 million dollars 10 years ago!!!
I'm pretty sure he never signed
Even as the offers got smaller and smaller. I think he was finally offered $40,000 or something like that, and even turned that down.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on May 20, 2010 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions
I'd urge college
I think getting a college education, living a college experience at age 18-22 is more important than being handed one big lump sum of money. I think college is a much better experience to facilitate his maturity than playing pro ball. And I would worry that were he handed a million bucks and tried to live off that the rest of his life, he’d turn into a lazy turd and do nothing with his life.
I certainly understand why people would take the money, and rationally, economically, it makes more sense. But the pro career is so short for most, and the odds so long, I’d like to plan on it only being a small part of my son’s life, and if he ends up making it great, but if he doesn’t, I want him to be a well-rounded productive member of society.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I tend to agree with you....
Although you could always go back to college later in life, there is a big difference between going to college at 26 than at 18-22, in terms of the experience. Also, if used effectively, athletics could be used to get into a better college for free than the one you would have had to pay for, based on your academics.
Having said that, if the money is 1 million or more, it becomes hard to turn down.
by DenverBears on May 20, 2010 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions
I think I'm also odd in that
While I’m a HUGE baseball fan, I really don’t want my son to become a pro baseball player. I think there are a lot more meaningful things he can do with his life, and most ballplayers don’t seem to live stellar lives. Now, if its his dream, then sure, I’ll do what I can to encourage that dream. But there are many things more important than baseball, and if he bypasses an opportunity to become a pro with millions of dollars in order to get a college degree, I don’t think that’s the worst thing in the world.
Then again, we come from a middle class background, so its a lot easier for me to say that than say someone with a blue collar/poor background.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
not that odd....
I’d feel the same way if I had a boy—but alas, I have girls. I don’t want them to become pro baseball players either.
"student athlete"
is too often an oxymoron, especially when major college athletics are involved (which they presumably would be if he’s a early round draft candidate). Going to school as a regular student a few years later is probably closer to the “college experience” than is going to school as a scholarship athlete straight out of high school.
Given that, I’d probably lean towards signing whether or not he’s “college student” material at age 18. If pro ball pans out as a career, great; if not, he’ll be more mature and able to focus on college when and if he does go.
The only real exception would be if he’s driven towards a particular academic field or otherwise really focused on being an actual student-athlete—the few folks who manage that come out with an amazing background that serves them well in either pro sports or any other career, but they are very much the exception to the rule.
ah, Retro, going with the old school
And I agree that the college experience is an important thing, but so is the chance to play a professional sport (even if it were just the minors). I think limiting the downside (i.e., gets hurt in college and/or potential doesn’t develop, not drafted again) is an important consideration — can you imagine the regret of passing up the chance to sign as an early-round pick to play baseball if the opportunity wasn’t there again after going to college?
Like you say, it would depend a lot on the effect on the son’s life, and if he really wanted to go to college that would make a big difference in which way I would lean. But otherwise, like someone else mentioned, for me it would be taking the bird in the hand.
by SagehenMacGyver47 on May 20, 2010 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Clearly go the pro route as long as the bonus is "reasonable"
Also, if the kid is good “college material” (some are, some aren’t), you should be able to “leverage” the MLB team that drafts you to throw in a “college tuition” reimbursement plan that would be available for say 10 years.
The money won’t last that long but someone with a decent work ethic and some common sense should be able to still set themselves up for a contingency plan if pro ball doesn’t work out, even if its not more than becoming a “Gym teacher and baseball coach” as a fallback plan.
Fat man is no more,
Bursting on through Heaven's Door
Come on in, says Bill
"someone with a decent work ethic and some common sense "
Coming into a lot of money has a tendency to make those two traits disappear.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Well
I would certainly hope I raised my kid right and instilled things like common sense and a strong work ethic in him to where I wouldn’t worry about those traits disappearing. I have to agree with Wilbur here, if the money is good and your kid is a good enough student/has the desire to go to college you could negotiate a college fund into the contract he signs. Last year only 5 kids taken in the first two rounds signed for less than $500K so I’d say if you could get $500K and a college fund setup, sign the contract. If he flames out he has college paid for and has a solid nest egg to start out life in the “real world” with. Plenty of people get by with much, much less.
http://bullpenbanter.com
I would definitely lean towards signing if I were in that position
But I wouldn’t push a player in either direction if I had influence over a draftee. It should be entirely his decision.
Keith Law made a great point the other day
As far as preparing for a potential long-term career in baseball, it’s inevitably better to go the pro route as teams tend to think in the long-term for realizing their investment whereas college programs want to maximize their return for as long as they have you.
Nowadays...
give it a shot and go pro. There’s such an emphasis on development and maintenance that the risk isn’t as ridiculous as before. He’ll get some real life experience, figure out a little about himself, make a little money, and all that good stuff.
There’s no formula to a good life anyway, and it’s not like schools will take him as long as he’s athletically talented.
It would depend mainly on the answer to one question
“What do you want to be when you grow up?” The idea behind this question, obviously, is life outside of baseball, should my (hypothetical) kid leave baseball behind.
If my kid has a strong idea of what profession he’d like to work in, I’d move him towards studying for a degree in that field, research strong baseball colleges to figure out which ones develop and treat pitchers the best (along with having a solid program in the chosen degree field, obviously) and try to nudge him towards those.
If he has no idea, then take the money and turn pro. You can always go back to college once you figure out you want to study and work in X profession, should baseball not work out. But if he goes to college with no real idea of what he wants, the education could largely go to waste.
The question of life after baseball is one a player and his family should strongly entertain because the vast majority of even the best prospects ultimately don’t pan out, and that signing bonus may be all the big bucks they ever see from baseball.
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