Mets MOD #2 (The Empire Strikes Back)
Yes, I'm aware it was actually the 5th movie, and not the 2nd, but as our mascot, thumbs up Johan says: "S'ok, S'ok." Soooo, after you guys weighed in and we discussed a few prospects, it has become obvious that trying to draft as the Mets indeed do will be maddening. That being said, I don't think that we have to exactly draft as though we're the Mets from years past. This year, management is being pressed to hit a series of Home runs in terms of personal acquisitions. That being said, I could see us taking more risks this year than in years past. But, hey, who knows. Following is a list of guys who I'll provide scouting reports for, that I think we could be targeting.
1. Karsten Whitson: He's already big, strong and durable and he's got plenty of projection, meaning he might throw harder than his already mid-90s fastball. Add in a plus breaking ball and good changeup and he's got a very intriguring three-pitch mix already. Some tweaks to his delivery could make him even more dangerous. There might be a right-hander or two ahead of Whitson on the high school depth chart, but he should figure into high Draft pick conversations come June. That's what MLB.com said, but I think that Whitson is an interesting pick for us at this spot, assuming he's still around.
2. That Grandal dude: Grandal has been on radars since high school, when he opted for the University of Miami rather than the Red Sox. He's come through with his best offensive season at the right time, with consistent production at the plate moving him up Draft boards in a hurry. He's a switch-hitter with some pop, but some worry about his ability as an overall hitter. Defensively, he has a good reputation, but he does need work on things like his footwork. With college catchers always in high demand, Grandal's numbers this spring could very well result in him being the first catcher off the board in the first round. That's from MLB. I think they're slightly under selling his power potential. I could see him developing 15 homer pop with his swing, which looks to be pretty darn smooth. And I know, don't draft for need, but I think he could be a great addition to our system.
3. Austin Wilson: Wilson not only has tremendous tools -- his raw power being the best of them -- he's got the work ethic and character to maximize those tools. Still a little bit raw, he does need to improve his overall hitting skills so he'll be able to consistently tap into that power at the next level. He's a sponge who soaks up information, so most feel he'll do just fine down the road. With a plus arm and good speed, the Stanford signee could be a prototypical right fielder in due time, one who doesn't wait long to hear his name on Draft day. From MLB.com. What I love the most about him is how scouts rave about his mental makeup and his learning skills. That is SO important for a player. Unwillingness to accept teaching is why Andy Marte sucks now, as well as being lazy. One who "soaks up information" is exactly the description you want to hear about a toolsy guy like this. This is the type of home run pick I could see us making, which might break the mold a bit. But I think that it would be a great idea if ownership took this risk. He's my favorite guy in this draft not named Harper, for what it's worth.
4. Bryce Brentz: A year after having one of the best offensive seasons in college baseball, Brentz entered his Draft year as one of the top pure college hitters. He's done nothing to alter that impression. He has a short, compact stroke and plenty of power to all fields. A two-way player in the past, the arm that worked well for him on the mound is more than enough from the outfield. He could be one of the top college bats to come off the board. I love the two way ability, as those types tend to be successful. This seems like an interesting pick, as he is a college bat (which the Mets like), but also as a guy with a lot of upside. Could be an interesting pick here.
5. Alex Wilmmers: Wimmers is setting himself up to be one of the safer college arm picks in the 2010 Draft. He has three pitches he can throw for strikes and he shows tremendous poise on the mound as Ohio State's Friday starter. While his raw stuff won't jump out at you and he might profile as a middle- to back-of-the-rotation pitcher, he's also the type whose sum is greater than each of his parts. Wimmers should shoot through the Minors and could be big league-ready by 2012, meaning he probably will not last very long on the first day of the Draft. Sounds like a Mets' type pick to me.
6. Deck Mcguire: McGuire may not have the highest ceiling of the pitchers in this draft class -- he profiles as a No. 3 type starter -- but he might be the safest college arm to choose from. He's got a good three-pitch mix and excellent command that comes in a big, durable body. He's always been successful and has shown the ability to compete and win even without his best stuff. While he's not an ace in the making some teams might look for, he should be the type of advanced arm that can get to the big leagues in a hurry and be a very important innings-eater in the middle of a rotation. That might not be sexy, but it's likely to get McGuire drafted early on Draft Day. I'm thinking this is also a route the Mets could take. After all, we could sure as hell use his type. Also, with his 6'6' frame and only 215 lb weight, I could see him adding a few ticks, as well as strength.
7. A.J. Cole: With size, projectability and at least two outstanding pitches, Cole is at or near the top of prep pitching lists. His fastball already touches 94 mph, and there's lots of room for growth in his 6-foot-5 frame. He adds a wipeout power slurve to put hitters away and even shows a feel for a changeup. There are some small concerns about his arm action, but his delivery overall is good and he has decent command. James Taillon might be the first high school arm to go off the board, but Cole won't be far behind. Hardly a Mets' type pick, but he's still a very interesting arm. Got tremendous upside, and a strong arm, but obviously the risk of being a high school arm is pretty big.
8. Christian Colon: A big prospect since high school, there's a lot to like about Colon's game. He's got a solid approach and setup at the plate and he makes the plays in the field. His individual tools don't grade out well, and some think he'll need to move to second as a pro. He was the captain of Team USA last summer and put up big numbers as well. He hadn't done that in the early going of his junior season and this is a performance-based industry, so that could hurt his draft stock a little. Even if he doesn't pick it up, his past performance, makeup and baseball acumen should help ensure he doesn't wait too long to hear his name called. As mentioned in the first MOD, he could fill the hole at 2b for the Mets down the line, and I do like his leadership qualities. He's got a good head on his shoulders, and seems to have a pretty high floor.
9. Michael Choice: In a year that lacks a ton of big-name college hitters, players from smaller programs like Choice have a chance to shine, and he is taking advantage. Though he'll need work on his swing mechanics, he has big-time raw power to all fields. He runs well and plays a strong outfield to boot. He may not be the elite hitter clubs seek, but since there aren't many of those this year, teams may look hard at Choice in the early going. He's got some good power, although his swing is a bit funky. Also, doesn't have a great body. Still, good hitter with a great overall package.
10. Drew Pomeranz: Pomeranz has established himself as the top lefty arm in a Draft class that hasn't got a deep the southpaw pool. Big, strong and durable, he's got the makings of an above-average three-pitch mix. He commands his fastball and breaking ball very well, and, while the changeup is a bit behind, it's improving quickly. There's little not to like about Pomeranz -- most criticisms are on the nit-picky side -- and it seems likely that he'll hear his name called very early on Draft Day. Obviously, he'd be the pick if he's still on the board, but that doesn't seem totally likely. Love his stuff, love his size, love his makeup. This would be a steal if he falls to us.
11. Zack Cox: A Draft prospect two years ago, Cox is back as a Draft-eligible sophomore. His best tool is his bat and he should hit for plenty of average with at least decent power. His plus arm plays just fine at third, but his overall defense at the hot corner likely won't work at the next level. Arkansas has been mixing him in at second and that might prove to be a better spot for the left-handed hitter. Regardless of the position, the bat should be enough to get him off the board sooner rather than later. Eh, I'm not a huge fan of Cox. Not a great fielder, and a solid, but unspectacular bat. He'd sign for slot, if that's your concern, but I don't love him.
So, with help from MLB.com, here you have it. Here's 11 guys I think are reasonable to think the Mets could pick. Love to hear your thoughts. I could include a poll, if you'd like, but I really think that discussion is the best way to figure out our pick. Let's have at it!
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Dylan Covey
HS pitcher from California with a high ceiling.
Fat man is no more,
Bursting on through Heaven's Door
Come on in, says Bill
Do you think it's a Met's pick, though?
You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220
I like Choice/Colon
Choice might be the best bat, Colon might be the best player. Colon coming of a broken leg struggled a bit early, but OPS since then: March 1.024, April 1.155, May 1.179. Unlike Cox, I think he easily plays middle infield, maybe even SS.
Of the college arms, I kind of like Chris Sale, for both polish and upside. High GB%, still some projection there, possibly 3 plus pitch lefty. A red flag is his delivery, raising the back elbow above the shoulder when he loads.
Of the HS arms, Allie and Covey are intriguing at that spot, as well as Whitson.
Allie might have the best arm in the draft, with possibly three plus pitches (FB/SL/CH), and has very good athleticism as well. He’s raw and needs some coaching though, and needs to improve his command.
Covey has two very good pitches in his FB and CB, with CB described as plus plus, possibly the best in this draft. Also shows potential for a good CH, and seems to know how to pitch and generally have good command.
Realistically
They will probably take some “safe” college pick who will sign at or below slot. That being said, I have seen rumors of them liking Manny Machado. Trying to keep it realistic, I do like Sale (the LHP) if he was to fall to the Mets pick. Not as high on Grandal as I think it is the fact that he plays C boosting his stock more than his upside
"Safe"ty Dance
I know it’s virtually required to write about how safe and boring the Mets will be come draft day, but can someone tell me where this pattern exists with their Top Pick – particularly with top-half round-1 picks?
They’ve chosen HS arms (Kazmir) and HS bats (Milledge), college arms (Pelfrey & Humber) and college bats (Davis, Havens) and (to my knowledge anyway) not once reaching for an under-slot player and did go over on several occasions.
Where they DO deserve criticism is in refusing to take shots at over slot players in later rounds, but it seems to me that this flaw is being applied to their 1st-round picks almost as a reflex at this point.
So what gives here — who is the past NYM Round-1 pick(s) who was/were known to be (at the time of the draft – as opposed to with several years of 20/20 hindsight) that typifies this supposed ultra-conservative attitude?
Safe Picks
Humber and Havens are two examples from when they have had first round picks. Lately their top picks have seemed to be Supplemental picks or later and there they have avoided taking better talent and going cheap with guys like Eddie Kunz, Rustich, Niesen, Joe Smith, Matt Durkin,
Safe
While Humber may not have been an exciting pick and certainly doesn’t look good now, mostly that wasn’t a very exciting draft and, at the time, I remember him as being near the top of most lists.
Kunz and the rest of the arms were all considerably lower picks (Kunz at #42 and the rest in the 90s and above) and not only have a whole lot of relievers been taken higher than that but I don’t see those choices as indicating some kind of team philosophy when it comes to premium picks.
And again, I agree that they need to get more daring, creative, and interesting in later picks, I just don’t think they’ve been wimping out up high.
by Frayed Knot on May 20, 2010 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions
2004
May not have been a strong draft, but if they wanted an arm, Niemann and Weaver were two who were generally ranked higher than Humber. Humber profiled at best as a mid-rotation starter, while the others showed more upside. If I am drafting #3 I am not going to be looking at a guy who profiles as a mid-rotation starter with all of the volatility involved with pitchers
Kunz may have been pick #42
But I know a number of people on this site who were high on Nick Hagadone with that pick. While Hagadone has battled arm issues in the minors, he has always been above 10 K/9 IP in the minors and not allowing many HR’s (I believe he has allowed 2 in like 140 IP in the minors)
So, that being said
Do you think that perhaps we should be looking at a pick that could warrant more money, and possibly breaks the perceived “mets” mold?
You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220
My feeling
If the guy is represented by Boras you can forget about that pick. Doubt they would go with Austin Wilson because Stanford commits take a lot of money to pry and he is supposedly really into going there. Minaya was recently out scouting Brentz so that could be one direction. Personally I think they will either go with McGuire, Brentz, Choice, or one of the Sale’s
Hm, interesting
Since right now, I’m leaning toward Whitson, assuming he’s available. In the event he’s not, Brentz could make some sense
You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220

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