How much is too much for Strasburg
by ADLC on May 17, 2010 8:08 PM EDT
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I'm in a dynasty style league. Solidly in first place and deep outside of my MI. I have Strasburg available to trade for, but the asking price seems pretty high. Smoak/Bruce is the asking price, won't go that far, but how much talent would you give up? Snider, Castro, Soto are all other options with Smoak (I have Tex) but Im not sure how much I want to give up for him.
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Frankly
I hate his mechanics, and everyone else does too. I’d be weary in the long-term, Though, he’s been handled well by the Nats so far.
not everyone hates his mechanics
What a silly thing to say.
As for the original question, that’s a pretty hard question to answer without knowing the specifics of your league.
mechanics
this entire mechanics thing is ridiculous. The scouts UNIVERSALLY hated Lincecum’s mechanics and now they are saying it puts less stress on his arm? You have organizations changing pitchers arm slots to get rid off this mysterious “W” phenomina, only to have them blow out their arms because the changes are not natural?
Let the pithcers throw. The entire thing is a crap shoot any ways. Players that have supposed impeccable motion blow out their arms, pitchers that are supposedly living on the edge don’t. Impossible to predict IMO.
If they are all so worried they should go to Miek Marshall’s camp in Florida and learn his crazy windup
Why would you trust scouts when it comes to mechanics?
They don’t really know any more than us laymen when it comes to predicting injuries based on mechanics. Generally, when they’re speaking about good mechanics, they are talking about repeatable mechanics that should allow a pitcher to have good control, command, and consistency. They aren’t (or at least shouldn’t) be trying to predict the chances a guy gets injured.
The scouts UNIVERSALLY hated Lincecum’s mechanics
This is just as silly as saying “everyone hates Strasburg’s mechanics.”
I like
Strasburg’s results, so far.
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."
by fourfingerwoo on May 18, 2010 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't hate his mechanics.
There. Now officially less than everyone hates his mechanics.
18 teams
25 man rosters, 10 man MiLB roster
giving up Smoak/Bruce puts Coughlin in my lineup for now.
Strasburg joins Grienke/Garza/Peavy/Oswalt in my rotation.
Is pitching over-valued?
If it isn’t, why would you deal two potetnailly outstanding hitters for one potentially outstanding pitcher?
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by OldProspects on May 18, 2010 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Ehhh...
Isn’t that some very sloppy language? Yes, Bruce and Smoak are potentially great hitters…but it isn’t like all potentially great players are functionally equivalent. Strasburg’s peak is a good deal above either of theirs. You’re dealing two potentially very good – great hitters for one pitcher who could very well be the best in the league for the better part of a decade.
smoak and bruce
this is a once in a lifetime young pitcher. you can draft or trade for players like smoak and bruce easily. it is a risk, but a risk that can pay off huge.
that's what they said about Mark Prior...
The question is if that risk is worth two young hitters… personally, with Bruce’s struggles, in real life, Id do it… idk about fantasy though because I dont play…
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on May 17, 2010 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Stay put
if the price is Smoak/Bruce. Both look to be legitimate hitters for the next 10 years. Not sure why people still ride the Bruce struggle bandwagon but check his stats thus far this season. It really seems he’s beginning to figure out some things.
Strasburg is a heck of a talent but I’m not sold he’ll cash in on most of it. I’m in the boat where I do see some injury concerns owners should worry about.
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Jay Bruce right now:
270/363/470. His power is way down from last year(190 ISO compared to 246 ISO in 09) and he has been extremely lucky with a 330 BABIP… Not great numbers, knowing that his BABIP is 60 points higher than his career norm..
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on May 17, 2010 11:37 PM EDT reply actions
but based on his career numbers, i doubt it (271 career BABIP)
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on May 18, 2010 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions
I disagree with your assessment of Bruce
You are making a big assumption that his .330 BABIP is lucky and unsustainable. This is a player with a track record in the minors (his BABIP average was about .360). We cannot just readily assume that he was extremely lucky at every level for 3 1/2 years. My calculation of his xBABIP for this year so far is .307, not far off from .330.
My quick calculation of his xBABIP last year is .292. I believe his real BABIP was .221. Obviously, he got extremely unlucky.
Also, this is a player (once considered the top prospect in baseball) who has made significant strides in his K/BB. Although it’s still not great, he has jumped from .30 K/BB to .6 this year.
Hardly a bit enough dataset to make that conclusion.
He doesn’t even have 2 full seasons worth of PA. In his first year he was around .300. The next year he had an extremely low one around .220. No one has had a BABIP that low for a full season since 1994.
That’s his whole “career.” Trying to find an “established level” in that data isn’t going to work.
His minor league BABIP was .366.
He is 23.
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