MOD: St. Louis Cardinals #1
by UncleBuck44 on May 17, 2010 2:10 PM EDT
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Hey all,
I need to find an Assistant Scouting Director who can take my place on June 5th in case I'm unable to make it. I know there are plenty of Cardinal fans out there that follow the draft as in depth as I do and also post on minorleagueball.com. With that said...let's talk draft.
Mock Draft Selections:
1st round (25th overall)
Supplemental 1st round (46th overall)
Supplemental 1st round (50th overall)
2nd round (75th overall)
3rd round (106th overall)
Recent Draft Picks:
2009:
Shelby Miller-RHP-Texas High School
Robert Stock-C-USC
Joe Kelly-RHP-UC Riverside
2008:
Brett Wallace-3B-Arizona St.
Lance Lynn-RHP-Ole Miss
Shane Peterson-OF-Long Beach St.
Niko Vasquez-SS-Nevada High School
2007:
Peter Kozma-SS-Oklahoma High School
Clayton Mortensen-RHP-Gonzaga
David Kopp-RHP-Clemson
Jess Todd-RHP-Arkansas
Dan Descalso-2B-UC Davis
Draft Budget:
It's not likely that the Cardinals will take high bonus players(way above slot and/or near 7 figures) in rounds 1A through 50. However, the selection of Shelby Miller mixed with some big latin signings(and one big unsigning) shows that the Cardinals are willing to spend to get a young player that they like. The Cardinals came out in the past and said that they regret passing on Rick Porcello. When they drafted Miller you knew they weren't lying.
If a player like Austin Wilson or AJ Cole falls to the 25th pick, the Cardinals could be ready to pounce. However, it's not likely that they will pounce after the 1st round ends. They continually passed on St. Louis native Tim Melville in 2008(most draft followers knew it was a wise decision). They continually passed on Matt Harvey in 2007. And they went for TCU LHP Brad Furnish over Brett Anderson in 2006. The Cardinals tend to play it safe as the draft moves along.
Real Life Draft Strategy:
Cardinal's Scouting Director Jeff Luhnow has only taken two high school players in the supplemental 1st round and 2nd round combined. They were Tyler Herron and Josh Wilson, both selected in Luhnow's first draft in 2005. Since then, the Cardinals have selected the following players in each round:
Supp 1st round: Chris Perez(RHP), Clayton Mortensen(RHP), Lance Lynn(RHP)
2nd round: Brad Furnish(LHP), Shane Peterson(OF), Robert Stock(C), David Kopp(RHP), Jess Todd(RHP), Mark Hamilton(1B), Jon Jay(OF)
It's interesting to note that Luhnow has never selected a position player with any of his 5 supplemental 1st round picks. Including the last time he had two supp 1st rounders when he picked Wilson and Mark McCormick.
Luhnow's first rounders: Colby Rasmus(OF), Tyler Greene(SS), Adam Ottavino(RHP), Peter Kozma(SS), Brett Wallace(3B), Shelby Miller(RHP)
4 of 6 are position players, 3 of 6 are high schoolers. No real pattern. The 25th pick could be AJ Cole, Matt Harvey, Justin O'Conner, Bryce Brentz or Kolbrin Vitek.
Mock Draft Strategy
Everyone's an option. I don't expect anyone with price tag issues like Cole, Nick Castellanos or Austin Wilson to fall in the mock draft as no one is really sure of exact asking prices plus everyone wants to take BPA. If they do fall then the only reason I wouldn't draft them is because of better options.
After the Cardinals gutted their farm system through trades and graduations we have plenty of needs. As I said, everyone's an option.
Possible Targets
25th pick: Kaleb Cowart, Justin O'Conner, Matt Harvey, Brett Eibner, Brandon Workman, Bryce Brentz, Yasmani Grandal
Supp 1st round: Barret Loux, Mike Foltynewicz, Sammy Solis, Seth Blair, Micah Gibbs, Drew Vettleson, Sam Dyson, Cam Bedrosian, Kyle Parker, Derek Dietrich, Robbie Aviles
2nd round: Delino DeShields, Kellin Deglan, Tony Wolters, Jacoby Jones, Adam Plutko, Stefan Sabol, Kyle Blair, Kevin Munson, Michael Lorenzen, Chad Lewis
Let me hear some opinions!
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Cards pick
As an avid Cards fan that follows the minors and draft process (specifically over the past 2-3 years) here is my opinions. Obviously some would have to fall a little to make it to us at #25…but everyone’s draft board is different. I am a firm believer in BPA in the 1st round and our system is currently lacking star power…so I am bigger on upside picks than high floor picks.
Players of Interest
1st Rd (#25) – Wilson, Castellanos, Brentz, Gausmann, Harvey, Cowart
1st Supp Rd (#46 and #50) – Paxton, Allie (starting to sound like there is no way he is available), Cabrera, Littlewood, Foltynewicz, Dyson, Tago, Cisco, Jenkins, Z. Lee, Clarke, Bettis, G. Brown
2nd Rd (#75) – Rojas Jr, H. Morris, LaMarre (sounds like he won’t be around), G. Murphy, Smelter, Rasmussen, Shipers, Ruffin, K. Blair
3rd Rd – Too hard to tell who will be around…
In and ideal world here would be my picks (a few options per slot):
- - Catellanos, Wilson, Harvey or Brentz
- and #50 – Littlewood, Cabrera, Dyson, Tago Cisco
- - Morris, Smelter, Ruffin, Rojas Jr.
UncleBuck
I want to see some upside bro.
I wanna see at least ten seven figure bonuses man!!!!!
For every on of them that washes out at Low A Quad Cities, you lose a digit!!!!
Albert Pujols is a god, and you my friend should be doing no less than graveling at his feet.
And
I won’t tell you what particular digit or in what particular order those digits would be in, because that would totally ruin the suspense you know.
Albert Pujols is a god, and you my friend should be doing no less than graveling at his feet.
OK
So you want:
25: Asher Wojciechowski-RHP-Coastal Carolina
46: Austin Wates-OF-Virginia Tech
50: Addison Reed-RHP-SDSU
75: Kevin Munson-RHP-James Madison
106: Josh Rutledge-SS-Alabama
Got ya.
oh i get it
its funny because those guys are guys typically not thought to be high upside guys. ha. haha.
You guys win. You can keep your little marked-out piece of internet territory. Spend your days communicating via keyboard with people too ugly for the real world and too nerdy for anyone to care, anyway. Your piece of land is here. Do the rest of civilization a favor and stay within its limits. You bore me. Have fun with your nightly sobs and screams into your pillow over your inability to attract a good mate, Radiohead. ~The Hooligan
by Daniel Berlyn on May 18, 2010 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions
BTW
I could probably do it if you don’t get the chance.
I have an odd work schedule at the moment, and would be happy too, if you would be happy to allow me.
Albert Pujols is a god, and you my friend should be doing no less than graveling at his feet.
The Job....
…is yours.
I’ll let you know if I can’t make it or have to leave early.
MLB Bonus Baby’s Chasing the states has given great information about players that I wouldn’t know anything about otherwise and with that in mind, here are a couple names that I would be interested in (that haven’t been mentioned):
Tyrell Jenkins, Zach Lee (as long as its not in the supp, that way its a protected pick), Nick Kingham, Michael Fuda, Michael Goodnight, John Sims, Burch Smith, Aaron Barrett, Kris Bryant
This is just what I might want to happen on draft day:
25. Matt Harvey
46. Asher Wojciechowski
50. Sam Dyson
75. Jacoby Jones
106. Nick Kingham
Ok, thats a pitching heavy draft, but might not be so bad. Of course this is the first time that I have really tried to figure out who I wanted the Cards to draft before the actual draft.
Hitters vs. Pitchers
The Cardinals should probably be looking at hitters in this draft.
They took Shelby Miller, Joe Kelly and Scott Bittle last year with three of their top 4 picks. And Robert Stock could very well be headed back to the mound after this season as he’s hitting .171 with little power.
Throughout the minors the Cardinals pitching depth is a little stronger than their hitting depth. Guys like Scott Gorgen(though now battling an elbow strain) and David Kopp have rebounded in Springfield. Eric Fornataro, Scott Schneider and Deryk Hooker have a long way to go but they are throwing very well in Quad Cities. Lance Lynn and PJ Walters are going well in Memphis and Adam Ottavino is looking promising. Then you have plenty of decent relief prospects with Sanchez, Mulligan, Reifer, Salas, Kulik and Samuel. Plus you have Anthony Ferrara in Batavia.
It’s not outstanding depth but I feel better about it than our hitters.
Hitter vs Pitcher
I am not sure it is smart to say the Cards should probaby be looking at hitters or pitchers in any certain draft. Especially early in the draft you snag BPA regardless of needs or positions. This is a draft with more pitching upside in the 1st few rounds than hitting. The only time you use need (position or hitter/pitcher) is when you have 2 guys your looking at with a specific pitch that you grade equally that will sign for virtually the same price. Then you can say well our system needs this or that. But I think you always need to go with the strength of the drafts.
a few more for thought
In the second and third rounds: Robbie Aviles, Jesse Biddle, and Garin Cecchini
Andy Seiler has Jacoby Jones listed as a Boras guy so keep that in mind
Players
I’ve got Aviles listed in my Supplemental 1st round group. He’d be a great pickup in the 2nd round. I’m not sure if he’ll make it there in this mock draft, though.
I saw that about Jones and Boras. Shame, Jones has some good tools. He kind of reminds me of DJ LeMahieu but possibly a little better.
Cecchini is an intriguing prospect. He could have easily gone top 20 if he stayed healthy. Now some team could get a steal if they are willing to pay him way above slot.
Going off Luhnow’s history, I don’t expect Cecchini or Jones to be Cardinals unless they make it far down in the draft.
by UncleBuck44 on May 20, 2010 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
oops
I saw that you had Aviles listed above just after I posted, sorry.
I think Law said in a chat yesterday that he expects the real draft to have players taken all over the board after the first half of the first round. That should be good news for Luhnow. Since they allocated over $3 million to Mateo last year but never spent it, I’m hoping that money ends up going toward a guy or two like Cecchini this year (probably wishful thinking I realize).
Back to the mock, I’d consider looking at Marcus Littlewood in the supplemental round/2nd. I guess the concern with him is that he is projected to move off SS to 3rd and there are questions about his ability to hit for enough power there.
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