Micheal Stanton vs Joe Borchard - take a look
by casejud on May 12, 2010 4:16 PM EDT
Email
Print
I was in a discussion of Micheal Stanton's amazing talents in the Project Prospect Top 25 thread when a poster brought up something interesting. He said that a good, reasonable floor for Mr. Stanton was Joe Borchard, the former White Sox, legendary, bust OF and 1st round Pick in 2000.
I thought It was interesting that they shared some rather superficial similarities in that it looks like they were born in the same city, Panorama, California and in the same month, November (Stanon, November 8, 1989 - Borchard, November 25, 1978). I thought I'd see if they share any, more significant, similarities by doing a litlle study of thier season they have in common - in the AA Southern League.
Borchard played in the Southern League, in Birmingham in 2001, his first full pro season. He had a .892 OPS in 597 PA's, an excellent season.
Stanton, as of this writing is having a HISTORIC one, He has a 1.353 OPS for Jacksonville.
My question is this - what sort of ballplayers have a an .892 OPS in the SL at the age of 22? And, I would ask what sort of players have an OPS of 1.353 in the SL at the age of 20 - except, of course, there are no other players. So I though a reasonable compromise would be to look at players who had, say a 1.000 OPS at the age of 20 - assuming, for the sake of argument, that Stanton stayed in Jax and "slumped" to a season of .400OBP -.600SLG, reasonable, I think. (Posters Note: He left the Southern League with an OPS of 1.171)
A cool thing about the data at BBref.com: The cut off for ab's is 138 - this may be bad for SSS, but It doesnt leave out great players who are so good, that they dont get a full-season at AA - which is common, Here's what I found as far as similar players- Im starting in 1992 becasue thats the first season they have OBP data and so most will recognize the names involved, out of respect for the young'uns round here.
Joe Borchard's 2001 comps: .295/ .384/ .509 / .892 OPS in 597 Pa's
- 1993 Olmeado Seanz .999 OPS in 199 Pa's, was 22 all season. Decent career as Platoon/Ph
- 1993 Ozzie Timmons .898 OPS in 426 Pa's was 22 all season, actually a good hitter and not a great comp because he was a 1b/Of, and a bad one - Borchard is and was an oustanding OF as far I saw.
- 1995 Jaun Williams 1.010 Some guy named Jaun Williams had a 1.010 OPs 214 PAs, he was 22. Never played in the big leagues
- 1996 Frank Catalanotto! .891 Ops in 588 Pa's, turned 22 before the season. Finally a decent big leaguer!
- 1998 Kevin Haverbusch .917 184 Pa's. .Never played in the big leagues. Turned 22 mid-season.
- 1998 Gabe Kapler .976 Ops in 629 Pa's . Turned 23 in late July this year but a great UPSIDE comp for Borcharxd - lol. He knocked in 146 Runs in the Sl and has had a good career as a backup OF.
- 1998 Geoge Lombard .953 Ops in 507 Pa's. An excellent comp for Borchard- toolsy Of, lefty bat, highly touted, same age within a month, didn't amount to anything.
- 1999 Aubrey Huff .915 Ops in 561 Pa's. Jackpot! Huff became an above average ib/3b, as you know. He also K'd 77 times, as compared to Borchard's 158 - a rather large difference for them to be truly comparable, not to mention how they turned out :)
- 2000 Joe Crede .874 Ops in 610 Pa's. Another pretty good player. Crede turned into a league average 3b with the bat, and good one with the glove.
- 2000 Eric Hinske .859 Ops in 520 Pa's. Hinske turned out okay too.
Mike Stanton 2010 comps .275/ .400/ .600 1.000 OPS- estimated numbers for comparison
- 1992 Chipper Jones .961 OPs in half a season, turned 20 before the season
- 1993 Carlos Delgado .954 Ops in 581 Pa's, a tad of a stretch in that he turned 21 in late June, but very close in power and walk/k numbers
- 1993 Marc Newfield is sorta similar, he had a .904 OPS and turned 20 before the season started, like Stanton - and was a legendary bust as well, he however had 35 Ks in 336 Pa's, showing that players that bust ofeten just stop making hard contact, not just K too much. Its really a stretch though- just trying to be fair.
- 1996 Andruw Jones 1.107 Ops in 176 Pa's. Im gonna mention Andruw Jones because he was similar in performance and because hes the only player I could find, in 18 years of data, that was YOUNGER and comparable- there just arent many who can dominate the SL at age 19-20,
- 1996 Darek Lee .930 OPs in 575 Pa's
- 1997 Ben Grieve 1.065 in 466 Pa's. The man, the legend. Not exactly comparable because he was 21 for most of his season but, I'll mention because people like to mention him when saying that, busts happen. He was pretty great and had a few good, big league seasons - another example that controling the strike zone doesnt prelude you from being a disappointment. Many say he wasn't aggressive enough.
- 1998 Eric Chavez 1.014 Ops 384 Pa's. Another match, and another All-Star. Regardless of his recent injuries, he was a great player. Perhaps a better talent than Stanton because he was a GG 3b too.
- 2003 Miguel Cabrera 1.038 Ops in 303 Pa's. Not a perfect comp because Miggy struck out less, but he also hit for far less power at this age.
- Delmon Young was 19 in the SL in 2005 but, Im gonna stop here becasue there is too much debate as to how is career will go. I wanted to focus on players who's careers have been decided, for the most part.
I left off nobody who was similar,even if I didnt recognize thier name. Here is a list of players you may know who were not good enough to be similar to Stanton as 20 year olds in AA, Sean Green, Javier Lopez, Yadier Molina, JJ Hardy, Prince Fielder was 20 and had an .837 Ops in the SL in 2000. I wouldn't even mention these guys who played C- Ss-2b except for people who question whether Stanton will HIT or not, and these guys have been good Big League hitters. Point is that Stanton is much better than them.
The bigger point, of course is that when someone tells you that Joe Borchard is a reasonable comp for Mike Stanton you can say "Yeah, and Casey Kotchman is a reasonable comp for Albert Pujols " , its about as reasonable.
Players doing what Mike Stanton is doing turn into All-Stars, on average not in rare cases- Chipper, Delgado, Chavez, Miggy Cab, Darek Lee. When something goes wrong they may be Ben Grieve, or Delmon Young. When someone is doing what Joe Borchard did, they turn into nobodies, bench guys, Joe Crede, or Aubrey Huff. Not that there is anything wrong with that.
50 comments
|
1 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Nice Article
It goes to show truly how good Stanton is and a possible likelihood he becomes an all-star caliber player
PPPPPPUNTO 4 MVP 2010
I think A's prospect Corey Brown was a fairly decent comp with Borchard.
As an A’s fan, that’s not something I like thinking.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on May 12, 2010 5:12 PM EDT reply actions
Reasonable
Im sure you’d like more from Corey, and its possible but guys who were a year older than Borchard in AA, and not as good, don’t have a great record.
On the upside, Gary Mathews Jr had a similar season in AA at age 23, I believe so – get excited – Corey Brown could be as good as Gary Mathews Jr.! With a little help maybe :)
5 year run
Matthews had a five year run in which he was a 276/342/454 player. I don’t know of any team that wouldn’t take an OFer that’s good for a .800ops over a 5 year span
and
he got popped for HGH right after that. take away the HGH, take away Arlington, and he is a fourth OF who gets traded for a middle reliever. . .
yes, but
you can literally cry HGH/steroids for 75%+ of players from 1996-2002.
Wasn’t saying Matthews was/is a stud, but he was productive for a stretch in his career
but his production fell directly after he got popped
pretty much the poster boy for PED’s
by SoCalSoxFan on May 12, 2010 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions
he's definately one of them
interesting to look at stats from 1996-2002 and then afterwards. Lots of players sufering sudden drops in HR production. You have guys like Brian Giles, who was ave 37 HR a year 1997-2002 all of a sudden drop to 20.. 16…23
Funny how it all coincides with the 1st steroid testing
so...
there is no difference between them?
Bad statistical analysis
… to use Stanton’s ABs as a low point and then compare his rate stats to dude way more ABs. It makes this exercise rather meaningless.
Whatever
It isnt really a “statistical” analysis anyways. Its an analysis of excellence/ age at AA ball.
I reduced Stantons OPS down to 1.00 for comparion sake.
Do you really belive his OPS will drop below 1.000 before he’s promoted to the big leagues. I will take you up on that nbet for ANY amount you like..
I have no idea why you think it’s bad analysis.
It isnt really a "statistical" analysis anyways. Its an analysis of excellence/ age at AA ball.
… using statistics.
Do you really belive his OPS will drop below 1.000 before he’s promoted to the big leagues.
If he were to play a full season in AA, like a number of the guys you were comparing him to, that would be pretty likely. You think Stanton is slump proof somehow?
This is like me saying at the end of April: “Hey Kelly Johnson has a 1.145 OPS. NO WAY he falls below 1.000!” And now, two weeks later, he’s already down to .963. EGADS, WHO COULD HAVE FORESEEN THIS.
I have no idea why you think it’s bad analysis.
Because it is much, much, much more likely to be out of this world for 138 ABs than it is to do the same thing over a full, or even half, season.
Good analysis would be to compare him to players with a range of ABs surrounding his number, instead of using his number as an extreme low point. So something like looking at guys with 80-200 ABs, or 90-190 ABs.
I see your point
but of course maybe you know that we could do the same kind of study with his season in the FSL last season, at age 19 and get similar results dont you?
Or even last season in AA except that players who are good in AA at age 19 are extremely rare.
I seriously doubt he’ll leave the Southern League with an OPS below 1.000 but, I see where you are coming from.
Yikes
I agree that you conclusion was correct, that Joe Borchard isn’t a good comparison Mike Stanton.
However the evidence and reasoning is just, well, pointless. Simply showing all the players who were the same age and had a similar OPS isn’t a comparison especially give how small the sample is.
ARL is extremely important, but isn’t the end or beginning of the discussion.
Some characteristics I would consider if you do this again:
HS vs College vs International
Handedness
Size/Frame
Position
BB Rate
K Rate
ISO
Athletic Ability
Full Time Amateur Baseball Player vs Part Time
Come check out Bullpen Banter!
Follow Bullpen Banter on Twitter
Follow me on Twitter
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
What?
Performance and age are pretty freaking significant, why dont YOU freaking do a study of handedness, or K rate, or whatever other nonense you are talking about.
Nowhere did I say it was the beginning, or end of a discussion.
Don’t you think its a LITTLE bit interesting that 20 year olds and 22 year olds- future performance is so divergant? Or did you already know that or something?
Hmm
Is Darek he the Dalek version of Derrek Lee?
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on May 13, 2010 9:19 AM EDT reply actions
Come check out Bullpen Banter!
Follow Bullpen Banter on Twitter
Follow me on Twitter
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
Ugh - Some posters on this site are getting quite ridiculous
All I said was Stanton’s FLOOR was something like Borchard. I did NOT say Stanton is the next Borchard.
This is just another example of a comment on this site being taken out of context and being blown WAY over proportion.
Show me one player… one freakin player… that has posted K rates even remotely close to what Stanton as put up and actually did ANYTHING in the bigs. I have yet to find one. Adam Dunn, Ryan Howard, and Mark Reynolds posted minor league K rates that were a good 10% less than Stanton’s. Stanton is clearly the ultimate BOOM or BUST player.
I will say this again: Stanton’s ceiling is HUGE. But that does NOT mean his floor is high. You are completely blind if you don’t at least see the possibility that Stanton could end up being a bust. After all, it is very, very difficult to get on base or collect a HR if you can’t even make contact with the ball.
Casejud is acting as if I don’t like Stanton. I find it funny that Stanton ranks #3 on my list. I’m really getting sick and tired of seeing comments being taken out of context around here. We end up spending more time debating minor points rather than the major discussion – like posting a huge analysis on why Borchard is different from Stanton rather than actually discussing the point of the post – what truly represents Stanton’s floor.
I also didnt say you did
I never said you did say Borchard was the next Stanton, but If 5 out of 8 players similar to Stanton’s age and performance become like, upper echelon All-Stars and 2 of 10 similar players to Borchard i age and performance become even a major league regular I hardly see how that is a “reasonable” floor? Thats all I am saying. Im just not as interested and concearned with the strikouts as you. All I really see Is A) How young B) How good
I think a REASONABLE floor for Mike Stanton, is Delmon Young. Not, exactly Delmon Young, because he isn’t the same guy but, If he gets to the majors very early he could take a few years to develop into a very good player, like Delmon is currently. Personally, I dont see it as reasonable to think Stanton will bust at this time- the odds are heavily in his favor of being a superstar.
By The Way, I found you a comparison…
Mike Stanton struck out MUCH less than Ryan Howard did in the Florida State League
Howard 553 Pa’s – 151 Ks 27%
Stanton 210 Pa’s – 45 Ks 21%
Howard turned 24 in November after that season
Mike Stanton turned 20 in November after that season- Dude
Next season, in AA and Stanton in 09/10 in AA…
Ryan Howard 433 Pa’s – 129 Ks 30%
Mike Stanton 483 Pa’s – 132 Ks 27%
… and Stanton is at 23% this season.
Howard was 25 in November of that season
Stanton willbe 21 after this season.
So, lets see, Stanton is 4 years younger, hitting for as much power or more, and is striking out much less. Lest you think I am cherry picking, there rerally arent going to that many comparables for such unique players are there?
I think you are looking at strikouts, and especially Stanton’s lower- minor league strikouts, at the expense of all other available information. The kid is already solving the strikout problem on a daily basis, If you’ll just notice.
Hmm...
Show me one player… one freakin player… that has posted K rates even remotely close to what Stanton as put up and actually did ANYTHING in the bigs.
His K/PA this year is high, but not abhorrent at 23%. Last year it was at 26% between two levels, which is creeping into abhorrent territory, but isn’t quite historically bad.
Some names, K/PA in AA:
- Derrek Lee, 30%
- Jason Varitek, 30% (first year in AA)
- Ryan Howard, 29%
- David Ortiz, 27%
- Mike Napoli, 26%
- Tony Clark, 26%
- Preston Wilson, 25%
- Nelson Cruz, 24%
- Nick Swisher, 23%
Then there are obvious guys, like Russell Branyan (31% in AA), in AA) and Jack Cust (26% in AA), who aren’t All-Stars, but are guys who have done “something.”
Some other MLBers above 23% in AA: Bill Hall (27%), Wily Mo Pena (29%), Eric Hinske (26%), Johnny Gomes (29%)
This isn’t an extensive list, btw. I just got these from perusing the minor league strikeout leaderboards.
Nice
This makes Stanton look bad though because, other than strikouts, a very tenous link between these guys – they aren’t really similar. Without going through each one, only Lee was a really as good, and besides Homeboy wants All- Star comparables – as do I :)
Derrek Lee is a good one too – same age at High A ball
Lee 565 Pas – 130 Ks 23%
Stanton, again, 210 -45 21%
same age in parts of 2 seasons in AA ball
Lee 584 – 172 29%
Stanton 483 – 132 27%
Another All-Star, same age, better and striking out less. Stantons total stas arent better than Lee’s quite yet but, give him another month – lol or, a full season there like Lee got.
Thats 3 All-Stars who are similar in K rate and you asked for one.
Now you show ME a simlar player – not just one who struck out as much but, who was as GOOD as Stanton – who failed.
All-Star comparables
The only two players on that bulleted list who weren’t All-Stars are Napoli and Swisher.
Appologies
I didnt really mean YOU – thats good work, thanks. I meant that guy is looking for guys who became really good and Stanton, frankly looks like a much better player than Swisher or Napoli.
We don't have an exact comp for Stanton
This is part of the problem. The two best comps that I can see though are Howard and Branyan. I’m sure there are plenty more, but that would take more research time than I have available.
LOL
Thats cool, didnt take me long.
Branyan, is an intertesting one – though not really comparable to Stanton – I always felt he would have been a really good major league, like he was last year If he just could have found a team who could just ignore the strikouts for a year or two.
As far as similar to Stanton though – lol – he was slugging .;357 in the Appy League when Stanton was bashing 39 Bombs in the SAL though. So, Branyan wishes he was that good.
So no one that wasn't as good as Stanton at 18 is comparable?
Yeah, Branyan struggled at 18 in the Appy league. He went on to hit 98 HR in 1389 PA, a rate of 7.1%, from age 19 to 21. From 18 to 20 (admittedly in higher leagues), Stanton has hit 82 HR in 1232 PA, a rate of 6.6%. He’s far from a perfect comp, but I think he’s a little closer then you give him credit for being.
Possibly
I guess the reason I dont like it is that it gives a nay-sayer a reason to say Stanton will be a bust, and…
A) Branyan shouldn’t have been a bust anyways. He should have been given a better chance and he’s have a pretty good career by now, I think.
B) Stanton is a much more talented player than Branyan at age 18, 19, and 20, which is all we have so far.
i agree with you that there is similarity in thier power, strikouts, and offensive profile. I think Stanton is going to be better though.
I get where you're coming from
I think comparing Stanton to Branyan is more of a way to illustrate what Stanton busting would look like. I don’t think anyone is saying that’s what they think Stanton’s career will end up looking like. I also think that Stanton will be better than Branyan, however I think there is something like a 5% chance that he “only” turns into Branyan.
Nailed it!
Finally someone who sees the percentages right. Sure, .lots of things can happen that we cant predict but looking at things reasonably, one can see that the odds arer heavily in his favor of becoming a great player- yes he could become like Branyan, but even then Branyan wasn’t really as good as Stanton is at this stage.
But mentioning Joe Borchard as a possibility? That is just silliness
Again, Joe Borchard resembles Mike Stanton about as much as Casey Kotchman resembles Albert Pujols
One more thing
before i go do something productive with my life today :-)
Branyan was striking out just as much at age 21 in AA as Stanton was at age 19! and, more importantly, Stanton has shown more progress in cutting his K’s than Branyan ever has – this season
Nobody will agree here yet but – think when you have equaled your HRS and WALKS in AA from the previous season – at age 20 – In 300 less Abs – that is real
Stanton wasn’t as good as Branyan was at AA the first time around, he was also 2 years younger, but he is NOW.
Here
I am sure the formatting will suck, but here are the top 10 in SLG throughout the minors from 2004 (an arbitrary year), and the K/PA:
Rk Age Lev SLG PA SO OPS K/PA
1 Marcus Thames 27 AAA 0.735 274 40 1.145 14.60%
2 Calvin Pickering 27 AAA 0.712 379 85 1.164 22.43%
3 Ruben Mateo 26 AAA 0.711 128 33 1.101 25.78%
4 Larry Sutton 34 AAA 0.692 377 61 1.166 16.18%
5 Mitch Einertson 18 Rk,A- 0.688 276 72 1.094 26.09%
6 Mendy Lopez 30 AAA 0.675 133 31 1.016 23.31%
7 Dallas McPherson 23 AA,AAA 0.67 586 169 1.057 28.84%
8 Joe Dillon 28 AAA,AA 0.669 604 114 1.075 18.87%
9 Bucky Jacobsen 28 AAA 0.661 353 88 1.083 24.93%
10 John Mabry 33 AAA 0.654 160 29 1.061 18.13%
- on the list is an interesting one – Dallas McPhereson. His K/PA was quite high, always had plus plus power, and was a complete bust. His ARL isn’t as good as Stanton’s.
Another guy
Who would, and could probably hit in the big leagues. I have no idea why the Mariners dont fish a guy like this out of AAA and let him take Ken Griffey’s wasted Ab’s- sentiment I guess.
Hard to see a guy with a .458 Slugguing Percentage in the big leagues as a bust but, theres something about him teams dont like. He also had a serious back injury at a bad time for him as well.
26%?
I have Stanton down for 30% in 2009 and 29.1% in 2008.
I have Howard for a 30.5% K/PA in 2004 – split between AA and AAA. I must have messed up my math originally. I did not look at guys like D Lee, Varitek, etc.
Thanks for putting this together.
Lee and Howard are the only correct guys on that list currently
Stanton has currently struck out in 27.4% of his PA in AA, which is worse than everyone of the list except for Howard and Lee. Its a bit disingenuous to compare only Varitek’s 1st season in AA to what Stanton has done over the course of 2 seasons at the level. Varitek had a lower K/PA his 1st season in AA (30% v. 33%) and also so far each guys 2nd go round (16% v. 23%).
Uh Dude
You are ignoring a pertinent fact arent you? Jason Varitek had a .387 Slugging Percentage in 982 Pas at AA. Now Varitek worked his ASS off to become a league average hitter and a fine Catcher, and Stanton has a long way to go to get to his static but…
Stanton is a much, much more talented player than Jason Varitek. Looking at strikouts without looking at anything else is dumb to me.
Reynolds, Howard, and Lee and are at least similar kinds of players who have been legit hitters in the big leagues.
I'm not ignoring any facts
I was only commenting on the list itself, nothing else. Only 2 of the guys he listed actually struck out at a worse rate than Stanton. Did I say that made the guys who struck out less better prospects?
My Bad
I actually misread the whole point of your post – appologies
Varitek struck out less than Stanton both go rounds, you are ight.
Of course that was because he was in a struggle to make some weak contact like most mediocre hitting talents. Most players strike out less than Stanton and most players aren’r as good either.
Lee and Howard are the only correct guys on that list currently
I don’t know what “correct” means here. It was list of guys who “posted K rates even remotely close to what Stanton as [sic] put up and actually did ANYTHING in the bigs.” It isn’t a list of guys worse than Stanton, but a list of guys who struck out roughly in the same range, give or take a couplafew percentage points either way.
Its a bit disingenuous to compare only Varitek’s 1st season in AA to what Stanton has done over the course of 2 seasons at the level
I disagree. Stanton has <500 PA in AA, so I looked at Varitek’s first season, which covers roughly the same amount of time.
Another
In parts of 2 seasons in the Southern League, just like Stanton, Mark Reynolds…
Reynolds 282 Pa’a – 69 Ks 28%
Stanton, again, 483 – 132Ks 27%
Reynolds turned 25 in August of his second season in AA
Stanton, again, will be 21 in November
Another All- Star, Stanton younger, better, striking out less.
You're comparing K/AB to K/PA and you're completely off on Reynolds age
Reynolds did strike out 69 times in 282 PAs, but that only works out 24.5% of his PA, compared to 27.4% for Stanton. In terms of K/AB (what fangraphs tracks as K rate), Stanton has struck out in 32.4% of his AB, compared to 27.8% for Reynolds. In summary, Reynolds didn’t strike out as often as Stanton in AA, though as you mentioned Reynolds was older for the level, but not as old as you claim. He turned 23 in August of the second year he spent in AA, though he was already in the majors by that point. So Stanton was almost exactly 3 years younger, still impressive and worth noting, but not the 5 years you’re making it out to be.
My Bad
I appologize for my error(s)
I made it out to be 4 years, not 5 though and it is really 3 years. point remains the same.
By the way – a question? Why in thge WORLD would anybody do a K rate and exclude WALKS?? That is so dfumb. A walk is a much better result the grounding out of flying out and its exactly what a guy who strikes out a lot is trying to do more of, in addition to making solid contact. I would personally throw out any K rate based just on Ab’s.
I don't disagree
I believe fangraphs uses K/AB because it works better for calculating things like BABIP, but I’m not exactly sure. Its just something people have to keep in mind when they look at K rates listed at fangraphs. I really wish they’d call it K/AB or something, instead of K%.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
