Project Prospect Top 25
by gore51 on May 10, 2010 3:02 PM EDT
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Full list:
http://projectprospect.com/article/2010/05/10/top-25-prospect-list
Basic List:
1. Jason Heyward
2. Carlos Santana
3. Stephen Strasburg
4. Buster Posey
5. Justin Smoak
6. Desmond Jennings
7. Michael Stanton
8. Mike Leake
9. Jesus Montero
10. Starlin Castro
11. Ike Davis
12. Dustin Ackley
13. Alcides Escobar
14. Pedro Alvarez
15. Neftali Feliz
16. Michael Montgomery
17. Logan Morrison
18. Jhoulys Chacin
19. Domonic Brown
20. Randall Delgado
21. Casey Kelly
22. Freddie Freeman
23. Nick Weglarz
24. Michael Trout
25. Lars Anderson
Honorable Mention:
Aroldis Chapman
Brett Wallace
Fernando Martinez
Jaff Decker
Josh Bell
Martin Perez
Michael Taylor
Mike Moustakas
Shelby Miller
Yonder Alonso
Dropped Out:
Fernando Martinez
Michael Taylor
Josh Bell
Yonder Alonso
Jaff Decker
James Darnell
Madison Bumgarner
Chris Carter
Graduated:
Brian Matusz
Wade Davis
Jon Niese
Any thoughts?
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Comments
Which ones wouldn't you include?
AdamWFoster on Twitter
Projectprospect.com Founder
by Adam Foster on May 11, 2010 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions
personally
I really don’t like Morrison. I can’t put a finger on why, so I guess I’ll just call it a hunch. I like Freeman, and I like Weglarz, and I like Davis, and I like Anderson, but I don’t know if any would sneak into my top-25.
This is just speculation though, since I haven’t actually MADE a top-25 haha.
I think I like your guys list[s] more than most. Keep it up.
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
Thanks
Yeah, it’s fun to actually go through the process of making a list. When it comes time to stack guys up and form a solid opinion, you may start bringing in or leaving out names you may not have expected to.
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Projectprospect.com Founder
I made a list once
I wanted to kill myself haha. It was no fun deciding if a guy should be 1 spot above player X, or one spot below. Guess it doesn’t help that I am utterly HELPLESS when it comes to decision making.
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
And it’s always fun to get a chance to have your decisions looked at under the microscope :).
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Davis
Morrison
Freeman
Weglarz
Anderson
I just don’t think they have elite bats, and that’s what I need out of 1B/DH types to rank them this high
Yup. I think those 5 are easy drops from a top 25.
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twitter: @alskor
And
Who would you replace them with?
AdamWFoster on Twitter
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by Adam Foster on May 11, 2010 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
For me?
Aroldis Chapman, Martin Perez, Chris Carter and Aaron Hicks are the four who come to mind immediately.
After that it gets tricky. I had Michael Taylor there, but I’d probably drop him some now. I was never a fan of his swing, but his production kind of blinded me to it. I made the list in February, and even before the season began I would have dropped him a little (maybe 10 spots)… so not overreacting to his slow start. After him was Chisenhall… who is a decent choice but could easily be leapfrogged by a couple guys since he’s apparently dealing with an injury of some sort (missing lots of games and DHing a lot, but no word why) and scuffling a bit.
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You'd drop all those guys in favor of Carter?
A guy with similar defensive value (possibly even worse), to go along with contact issues? The power and BB rates are good, no doubt, but I just don’t see them as enough to move him clearly ahead of those guys. I’d personally take Freeman over Carter without thinking twice.
I would.
Carter is athletic enough to adjust to 1B eventually. I’ll take the upside, especially when we’re talking 1B.
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What gives Carter more upside?
He has more current power? Freeman is 20 years old in AAA, and you’re arguing for the 23 year old based on upside. Do you not see anything a little strange about that?
Not even a little.
Its based on swing mechanics and things like that. Guys don’t necessarily grow stronger or hit more HRs as they get older.
Bullpen Banter
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twitter: @alskor
They do in general
And one of your main arguments for Carter is that he can clean up his swing mechanics to get rid of the holes. Why is it possible for the 23 year old to improve his swing, but not possible for the 20 year old?
Besides, forgive me if I don’t take the swing plane talk too seriously after being told for an entire off season that Jason Heyward didn’t project to have that great of power because he didn’t have enough loft in his swing. Besides, I’d love to hear what about this swing you don’t like. Looks incredibly efficient to me, though I guess there not enough uppercut for you?
Carter has a great swing. His issue isn’t his swing mechanics. Its getting out in front of changes and curves. Its pitch recognition and developing effective techniques to fight off or lay off stuff he can’t handle.
Its not just me. This is pretty much the consensus on Freeman’s swing:
his line-drive swing offers little in terms of loft or backspin. He’s an aggressive hitter who rarely works the count.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9968
Besides, forgive me if I don’t take the swing plane talk too seriously after being told for an entire off season that Jason Heyward didn’t project to have that great of power because he didn’t have enough loft in his swing.
Who said this??? Even if someone did say this, you’re saying one BS comment means you aren’t going to trust scouting breakdowns of swing mechanics ever again? How does that make sense…?
Yes, not enough uppercut is one issue. He also doesn’t drive the ball. He’s got gap power and he’s not anywhere near selective enough. Plus the platoon split. I’ll take Carter hitting .250 over that package every day of the week. The position that Freeman’s defense makes up the difference in their overall offensive packages isn’t something I’d think about signing up for. We’re talking 1B prospects here. Carter has a couple issues but looks like an excellent Adam Dunn style hitter. Freeman has a number of issues that will hold him back IMO. Give me the guy with the chance of being a plus player at his position.
Bullpen Banter
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Maybe you should just read more scouting reports
Many of them disagree with your conclusions.
BA, on power/swing:
He drives the ball with consistency with a sweet, fluid swing, and scouts believe his doubles will become homers as he gains experience and strength.
Law, on platoon/selective:
Unlike a lot of young left-handed hitters, he shows no appreciable platoon split, and while he’s not exactly patient, he’s not a hacker.
KG, on “driving the ball”:
Freeman is a pure hitter with excellent bat speed and instincts. He consistently drives balls into both gaps
Even if Freeman’s power ceiling were limited to 20 HR (which it might be, but it might not be, as well), that wouldn’t preclude him from being a “plus” player at first. A .300 hitter with 20 HRs and gold glove defense would be very valuable.
I’m not sold on Freeman as a top 25 prospect, but your assessment is unduly negative, in my opinion.
yours is kind of a bit rosy
If his downside is anywhere close to “only” a .300 hitter, above-average power and gold glove defense, he’s, um . . .yeah.
That wasn't a downside
That was his upside, meant to illustrate the way he could end up a “plus” player even with a limited power ceiling.
ahh yeah
about a year ago or close to, I compared Freddie Freeman to jon olerud
and got ripped for it, but I knew the kid was/is going to be a good one.
Wow Blackburn makes nearly identical money as Baker does now....
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on May 11, 2010 6:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Little late to the party?
Yeah, of course not all prospects follow the same development curve. I don’t see how you’d get that from my post. First, we’re talking about hitters, who are much more likely to improve as they get older than pitchers. Second, I’m not saying that Freeman will be better purely based on ARL. I’m just commenting on the argument that Carter is the better prospect because he has more upside. We’re comparing a 20 year old with the frame to add more weight to a 23 year old that has about maxed out his frame. Alskor is arguing for Carter because he can improve his swing, but Freeman can never add more loft to his. This strikes me as a pretty strange argument.
geez
I didn’t notice this sub-thread before – when I post has nothing to do with what I post. But apparently that annoys you or something . . .
I don’t think the idea is that alskor thinks that Freeman can never improve. He just thinks that both prospects have things they need to work on, and he also evidently thinks that Carter is more likely to improve on his weaknesses than Freeman is. This is entirely reasonable, actually – while ARL can be a useful tool in looking at position players, it’s not the be-all end-all when it comes to evaluating the relationship between what a player is and what a player can be.
Sometimes, you just think the guy is more likely to improve his game. It doesn’t need to be tied directly to numbers (age, height/weight ratio), it can be entirely based on scouting and visual evaluation.
Lighten up, it was just a joke
As for the actual discussion at hand, Alskor’s only real knock on Freeman seems to be swing plane, and he says he sees almost no chance he becomes an above average 1B. He doesn’t mention anything he doesn’t like about Freeman other than swing plane. IMO, that’s not good analysis. You’re telling me a 20 year old can’t ever be above average almost solely based on his swing plane? While a guy who has trouble staying back on secondary pitches (points to less than stellar pitch recognition IMO, something that is very hard to fix unlike swing plane) is likely to get much better? Despite the fact that he’s significantly older and further along his development curve? Sorry, I’m not buying that.
Perez and Chapman were both HMs. And if I hadn’t goofed and included Escobar, who wasn’t eligible, Chapman would have come in at 25th.
My concern with Hicks, and we are dealing with a small sample, is that his strikeout rate has jumped so far in his second stint in Low-A. On top of struggling out of the gates, he’s already had two games with three strikeouts this month.
I agree with people who say he has a high ceiling. But he could be a guy who needs 4-5 more years in the minors. Would you want someone who could be that far away in a top 25?
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I agree with people who say he has a high ceiling. But he could be a guy who needs 4-5 more years in the minors. Would you want someone who could be that far away in a top 25?
If the tools and ceiling justify it, I have no problem. I wouldn’t want to rank a #3-4 starter who is near MLB ready over a guy like that, for instance. I would regret that much more.
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twitter: @alskor
OK but
How many people ranked Dee Gordon over Jon Niese entering 2010?
I get the approach of going for ceiling over floor. I just wonder if people realize the true value of an average MLB player. It’s drastically higher than fantasy leagues lead fans to believe.
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I had Gordon #24 overall.
Niese not in my top 100, nor would he be now. I still see Niese as a mid rotation type at best. 35 IP where he’s only striking out 7.46 guys per 9 and walking >3 per 9 hasn’t changed my mind.
Not every guy who becomes a solid MLB starter should have been a top prospect at some point…
There’s also no way in hell I would consider trading Gordon for Niese right now, for example.
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twitter: @alskor
Mid-rotation starters have a ton of value. Especially if they can perform at that level for years.
I think the approach of aiming for stars over likely above-replacement-level players is heavily fantasy-baseball driven. I’ve yet to meet a scout who has said his organization is run like a fantasy team. They’ve all told me how undervalued average MLB players tend to be.
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I think the approach of aiming for stars over likely above-replacement-level players
That’s not really what I’m doing here, though (at least IMO). I think Carter, being as close as he is, with his approach and power has a very high floor… no? Especially if we’re talking about being a “likely above-replacement-level player.” Are you that certain he’s a bust because of contact issues…?
Freeman not only doesn’t have a particularly high ceiling but he has a number of questions about his game (power, patience, platoon split) and is farther away!
I’m really not clear on why anyone would think Freeman has a higher floor than Carter given their respective strengths, weaknesses and distance from the bigs. Not only that, but I see Carter as having a considerably higher ceiling. YMMV (and many clearly do).
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twitter: @alskor
but at the same time
People tend to dramatically embellish the ceilings of most prospects. There’s probably 100 guys in the minors right now with the “future No. 3 starter” label, and I might be guessing low on that.
You might not have seen this, but a couple of weeks ago here there was a thread concerning Jim Callis’ suggestion that there were but a handful of pitchers who project as possible No. 1 starters in the minors right now, which caused a minor riot and led to one poster suggesting that about a hundred dudes had a ceiling of a No. 1 major league starter. So I’m not sure it’s a case of undervaluing the contributions of a league average player as it a case of overvaluing the future contributions of prospects, with the latter leading to the former. If there’s 100 guys who could be No. 3 starters, then that doesn’t really sound all that special, does it?
Yes, certain breeds of prospects tend to get more love than they may deserve.
The two that I’m most hesitant with are:
1. Hard throwers with questionable command
2. Toolsy athletes with developing power and improving discipline
AdamWFoster on Twitter
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Uh
The reason there are a hundred potential aces in the minors is not that certain people can’t evaluate baseball players correctly, it’s that no one has a fucking clue who the potential aces are. The notion that there’s some kind of hard cutoff between a handful of “potential aces” and everyone else is historically ludicrous, bears no relationship to the way talent is distributed in the real world, etc.
Basically, it’s a completely empty-headed concept which is only promoted by prospect-watchers in order to sell copy.
BTW, you just figured something out: prospects aren’t that special. Empirical studies are quite clear that most of them end up producing little or nothing for their careers. The average sandwich-round draft pick provides the equivalent in value of a single season of a mediocre 4th outfielder.
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
The average sandwich-round draft pick provides the equivalent in value of a single season of a mediocre 4th outfielder.
Which is why the PP approach makes some sense. If someone is pretty darn likely to be that level or better, then chances are they’re one of the 100 best prospects in the minors.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
unfortunately
If there’s one thing that people blow more often than “very likely to be a frontline starter”, it’s “very likely to be a No. 3 or 4 starter”. The margin for error is so much less.
wow, and I thought I was snarky
“The reason there are a hundred potential aces in the minors is not that certain people can’t evaluate baseball players correctly, it’s that no one has a fucking clue who the potential aces are.”
You’re basically saying the same thing as me here except instead of “experts”, you have it as “everybody”. But in any case, not true. We can definitely figure out which guys are more likely to be aces. If we couldn’t, for example, you’d see an even (or at least relatively even) distribution of high-end outcomes across the rounds of the major league draft. But you don’t; in fact, high-end outcomes are pretty heavily weighted towards the front of the draft.
I don’t think I said anything about there being a “hard cutoff” – it’s much more of a continuum, though, than a free-for-all. I can clearly say that Shelby Miller is more likely to be a frontline pitcher than, say, Scott Gorgen, and I doubt that anybody would argue with me. Except maybe you.
“BTW, you just figured something out: prospects aren’t that special.”
Obviously they are or major league teams wouldn’t be hoarding them these days.
Hicks
He also has 23 walks to go along with those 28 strikeouts. Guys with his kind of tools and the ability to draw walks are elite prospects to me.
Hicks is patient. And he’s a natural defender in center. Pair those abilities with his power for an up-the-middle defender and you have a guy with a high floor and ceiling. I considered him for this list. He’s just closer to a top 50 guy than top 25 for me right now.
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I'm a Twins fan
And I actually agree with this I think right now, he only deserves to be around #40-50 overall (maybe higher) but this top 20 stuff is ridiculous I would have him absolutely no higher than 26 right now…..
Wow Blackburn makes nearly identical money as Baker does now....
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on May 11, 2010 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Martin Perez easily for me
Chapman could probably get my vote, but I’m not sold on his control ever developing, or his development of pitches other than his FB.
In terms of other pitchers, I also really like Christian Fried-rice and Matt Moore (hmmm, maybe I just have a fetish for left-handers) and they could definitely pop up in the top-25.
Tanner Scheppers’ arm is so damn good that I probably would put him on a top-25, even though he’ll be just a reliever, he just looks fantastic.
If I were to choose a bat, I would lean first toward Lonnie Chiz, despite whatever is going on with him so far this year, I’m not worried. Other guys I could consider would be F-Mart who I still believe won’t be a star, but will be a good regular, and that is very valuable. I like Michael Taylor still a lot, and I could see him pop up in a top-25 at some point, Aaron Hicks maybe too.
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
I love Delgado
but 20th? I think he’s moved up the ranks from borderline top 100, but I’m not sure this month proves his in the top 50 even (although 50th wouldn’t necessarily be outrageous I guess – he is the 3rd youngest player in the Carolina league).
Why would anything change after 75 PA?
To change it would be to completely ignore his past. It would be unintelligent to freak out after such a small sample.
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Why did Carter and Bell completely drop out then?
If it’s not based on the first month?
"The A's have to be setting some record this year for simultaneously maximizing team quality and player anonymity. I guess that’s sort of their thing though." - Luke in MN
It’s all case-by-case.
I treated Ackley’s early performance differently than Carter and Bell’s, as they both have years of pro experience to Ackley’s one month (regular season). Carter was 25th for us entering the year. Bell was a bit higher, but he stuck on as a HM.
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by Adam Foster on May 11, 2010 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Uh, not to put too fine a point on this:
This is the exact opposite of what a statistically sound approach to regression would recommend.
A player’s first 75 PA only tell you as much as 75 PA can tell you (which isn’t much) but they tell you a hell of a lot more than a player’s 20th 75 PA do.
I’m not hugely high on Carter either, but this is just silly.
Arthur Dent: You know, it's at times like this, when I'm trapped in a Vogon airlock with a man from Betelgeuse and about to die of asphyxiation in deep space, that I really wish I'd listened to what my mother told me when I was young.
Ford Prefect: Why, what did she tell you?
Arthur Dent: I don't know, I didn't listen!
All I said is that I treated Ackley’s early performance differently than Carter and Bell’s.
You’re jumping to conclusions awfully quickly Paul ;).
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certainly interesting to see that much re-shuffling from a preseason list.
i guess 100 PA really do mean something.
by larry on May 10, 2010 3:29 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
That and...
We released our Top 100 on February 23rd. This list isn’t just based on what has taken place so far this season. I saw over 30 minor league games in March/April.
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by Adam Foster on May 10, 2010 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Were they not too high on Martin Perez in the past?
I can’t think of any reason he doesn’t make a top 25 list at this point.
I think
They’ve been pretty aggressively promoting him, given his age.
That's why they call them business sox
He means innings/pitch count wise
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on May 11, 2010 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Actually, yes they have been
Perez was ranked ahead of Feliz at some point last year over at PP.
don't get some of the names
Some of these guys clearly aren’t going back to the minors before they lose eligibility (Heyward, Leake, Smoak most likely, Feliz), so including those names just feels like filler to me.
Other than that . . .seems okay, although I’d have to admit to wondering if Project Prospect is predicting that two players will be allowed to man first base at the same time in the future.
i'm pretty sure Moustakas wasn't even in their top 100 over the winter
maybe i’m wrong. but i don’t think so.
seems like over analyzing one month of data for the most part.
baseball rules.
You're are correct.
He was not top 100 for them.
Lars Anderson's placement seems pretty kneejerk as well
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When I talked to Anderson at ST, he told me about his oblique injury and how it bugged him last year. I don’t think anyone was prepared to cut him too much slack over it — himself included. But given his torrid start and previous success, I’m willing to now.
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by Adam Foster on May 11, 2010 12:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Plus of all the guys who jumped up on the list
Anderson at least has the pedigree of being a top prospect by pretty much every evaluator the year before. He was #17 on both BA and BP’s top 100 at the start of last season.
In retrospect, it appears that dropping him so far could very well have been the knee jerk reaction.
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I don't know if I'd call it knee-jerk
His 2009 season looked a little like his 2007 season minus the high BABIP. So the power was gone.
Then there wasn’t much talk about the extent of his oblique injury. And that’s because he wanted it that way. He’s a no-excuse kind of guy. Same with Kalish. They are both gamers; great guys to have on a team.
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I wouldn't call it a "knee jerk reaction" dropping him either.
Just trying to make a point. He certainly looked bad last season, both from a scouting and stats perspective.
I don’t really have any problem jumping him far back up if he continues this, though.
Bullpen Banter
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exactly
Over analyzing small samples of data is the trademark of projectprospect….along with pretending to be scouts.
by bereasonable on May 11, 2010 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions
They give themselves scout titles..
Senior scout, swing analyst, someone who works with mechanics experts, etc…Senior scout? Who is the junior scout? And who are you scouting for? Owning a radar gun and holding a stopwatch does not make you a scout. You realize that it was once written on that site that Adam “doesn’t trust scouting”? Those were the exact words.
by bereasonable on May 11, 2010 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions
They’ve put in plenty of hours and talk to plenty of scouts. While I may not always agree with them they certainly get high marks for effort. They have something worthwhile to say.
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Difference
There is a difference between talking to scouts and claiming to be scouts.
They have people actually calling themselves scouts. PP always seems to try to be
cutting edge and different, but really most of their community seems to be people who just fall in line with their predictions, no matter how nonsensical and flawed they may be. They have a little hierarchy of people who just nod their heads and say great list anytime something is thrown together.
by bereasonable on May 11, 2010 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
We talk to scouts and scout players. One of the first guys who wrote a scouting report that we published is now scouting for a pro team. Our work has been discussed in some major newspapers and given positive reviews by MLB coaches and front office members. A few of us helped pro teams with the draft last year. And we’ve been asked for help again this year.
Prior to last year, I was a little hesitant with scouting. But I tried to force myself to learn as much as I could about it. I talked to a bunch of scouts at Spring Training. We agreed on a lot of things.
I don’t know about that jab at our community. Most of our posters behave pretty maturely. And often times they disagree with me or our other writers. We’re in it to learn and work together. We have a lot of people going out to games, taking video and passing on information.
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Scouting report
Did not know about the scouting report you are talking about. What report and what member wrote it?
by bereasonable on May 11, 2010 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Not Hamilton.
You seem like a bright guy. I’ll let you figure it out :).
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Truth
Always important to tell the whole story on the scouting reports.
by bereasonable on May 11, 2010 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions
And...
You don’t think we do that?
Have you read our stuff in the Digital Prospect Guide?
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It should be illegal for the guys at PP to post crap like this.
Very offensive and should be considered a cyber crime.
JOSH THOLE > carlos santana
I'm assuming you're being sarcastic
And I’m still not getting the joke
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by OldProspects on May 10, 2010 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions
The Joke is
that post is being written by Dewey Finn.
by acerimusdux on May 11, 2010 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Leake
It’s looks like we’re gonna have an offensive revolution if Mike Leake is the 2nd best pitching prospect in baseball. Ouch!
+1
Seems likes it’s always been this way with PP.
Or
We’re not the same for the sake of being the same.
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by Adam Foster on May 10, 2010 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Same thing
"The A's have to be setting some record this year for simultaneously maximizing team quality and player anonymity. I guess that’s sort of their thing though." - Luke in MN
We work on our lists independently.
There aren’t a lot of people who actively see prospects play, study them and rank them. And the ones that do tend to take a very similar approach. Our approach is very different from say BA and BP — mainly in how highly we value floor. So our rankings will be different, too.
We aim to provide an alternative perspective to mainstream viewpoints by taking a different approach.
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mine would be more
1. Heyward
2. Strasburg
3. Stanton
4. Santana
5. Posey
6. D. Jennings
7. J. Hellickson (i know he’s been struggling but Matusz is graduate)
8. Justin Smoak
9. Starlin Castro
10. Jesus Montero
-- HM: -→ A. Chapman, A. Escobar, M. Moustakas, M. Montgomery, N. Feliz
Wow Blackburn makes nearly identical money as Baker does now....
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on May 10, 2010 7:55 PM EDT reply actions
i just don't see how Stanton is 7th on their list
Wow Blackburn makes nearly identical money as Baker does now....
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on May 10, 2010 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions
also Mike Leake #8??? yeah I'm sure they had that before too
or even close to that
Wow Blackburn makes nearly identical money as Baker does now....
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on May 10, 2010 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions
they had him at 20
before the season.
by auclairkeithbc on May 10, 2010 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions
really? wow that is awesome
Wow Blackburn makes nearly identical money as Baker does now....
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on May 10, 2010 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Leake was one of our guys this offseason. I’d seen him pitch a few times, talked to him and talked to some scouts who loved him too.
I actually have two steak dinner bets that he will have a better career than Strasburg. And I have one scout who has told me that he’d rather have Leake than Matusz.
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by Adam Foster on May 11, 2010 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions
I think PP values Mike Leake's floor a little too highly
But He does deserve to be near where he’s at right now I guess…..
I just lost a lot of respect for them, when they said C Wilson Ramos-
May not be a very good defensive catcher but the bat could play very well for the positionback in March
Ramos’ defense is just as good as Jason Castro’s i don’t think anyone would possibly even think of disagreeing with that, that truly knows what they’re talking about. In fact, Ramos’ defense is the much stronger part to his game before the offense, he still doesn’t have the eye at the dish yet. I’d probably give the defensive nod to Castro but they’re close…
Wow Blackburn makes nearly identical money as Baker does now....
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on May 10, 2010 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Well
I’d spoken to some people who questioned Ramos’ D when I wrote that. We then went out of our way to pay a freelancer to do a story on his D so we could learn more about him.
http://projectprospect.com/article/2010/03/16/ramos-honing-his-defensive-game
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by Adam Foster on May 10, 2010 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions
i laughed
and i laughed a lot when i saw this list. giving josh bell an honorable mention for the top 25 is ridiculous.
Love the Leake placement.
His floor is a guy who is basically a lock to put up a 4.00 ERA as a starter for the next decade, while his ceiling is basically a better Tim Hudson. The only thing he doesn’t have is a 95 MPH fastball. I’ll take six pitches, poise, pitchability, outstanding control, pristine injury history, groundballs, athleticism, and the fact that he’s already shown he knows exactly what he needs to do to get major league hitters out over the young flamethrowers with potential to have control and a nice breaking ball and an 80% chance they end up as a total bust, frustrating back of the rotation starter with upside, or bullpen arm.
Let’s say I offer you a guaranteed $50 million right now and a 25% chance at $25 million more in 3 years or a 25% chance at $100 million in three years. Which do you take? Option A is Mike Leake. Option B is whoever the teenage Latino fireballing flavor of the month currently is.
Leake is james simmons with a breaking ball
James simmons is jason windsor with no breaking ball, 2 pitches, and injury issues from a high college workload which has caught up to him
Teheran
I’m sorry but the way this kid has been pitching this season so far and from the reports that he’s been consistently hitting 96-97 with an unhittable change up he should’ve at least been an honorable mention.
When commenting on a player from your favorite team
it is important to stop and think to yourself, "Would I really be saying this if (insert rival team name here) was my favorite team?"
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
The answer would still probably be yes with Teheran, wouldn't it? He looks fantastic...
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Well, HM would mean that he would be a top-35 prospect
and I don’t think Teheran fits that for me just yet, Top-50, maybe. Top-65, definitely. Top-35? I don’t think so just yet. If he looks this good still by the end of the year, then probably, but right now I don’t think so.
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
hmmm, well then I am apparently in the minority here
and don’t get me wrong, I do like him, he’s just got a lot of volatility here (as all pitchers do, but Teheran’s is even more) and I tend to value guys with high floors a lot too. If a list was for purely upside, I’d have no problems plopping Teheran right in my top-20, but currently, he probably sits in the mid-50’s.
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
But you and alot of other people
Have no problem ranking HS kids who have not even thrown a single professional pitch higher than guys like a Teheran based off of upside/projection which I don’t get AT ALL.
Touche
I know I am guilty of this, primarily for the “Shiny New Toy” syndrome as well as my sheer giddyness as the draft approaches. However, the two HS guys I really liked were Tyler Matzek and Jake Turner. Matzek mostly for the reason that I liked everything I read/saw/heard about him, and my friend lived in Jacob Turner’s hometown and got me pretty sold on the kid, which was probably a bad decision, since my friend knows less about baseball than even a guy like me, but he’s a really eloquent person that he pretty much sold me from word 1
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
I give props where props are due
Not just for my team but any player that I see that’s good. Players that I’ve seen in person i.e. Jennings, Stanton, Hellickson and so on in Rome I’ve definitely have given props to those players.
Teheran
He’s more of a thrower than a pitcher. And his lack of ground balls is slightly concerning.
He flashed a plus fastball and curve when I saw him. But he didn’t command either pitch well enough to get my nod for plus status.
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by Adam Foster on May 11, 2010 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions
To be fair Adam
You stated that you saw him in ST correct? Most people that saw him in ST said the same stuff your saying but maybe when the bell rings he’s ready to go cause so far the numbers are saying that may be the case.
Also on the GB issue he had a good GB rate last season and not many Ks so maybe he could be throwing more 4 seamers this season and not as many sinkers.
Yes, I saw Teheran in ST. I don’t think it’s a matter of turning it on or off. He didn’t command his offerings well at any point in the outing I saw him.
Hitters like to swing in the low minors. And not many of them can hit good breaking balls. So when you have a guy like Teheran who throws a curve that can be dirty and a live fastball, they tend to be overmatched.
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Side note
Alcides Escobar should not have been ranked on this list. He graduated in early April.
Had I caught this before I published the list, I would have put Chapman at 25th and slid everyone up one spot.
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I think Alvarez should drop past #20, and I think Tony Sanchez should be honorable mention.
Sanchez is putting up an OPS of 0.953 right now in the FSL and his defense is said to be excellent. The question mark with him was his bat, but he seems to be answering that question. I don’t get why nobody ever talks about him. Do people think he has weaknesses that won’t really be exploited until he gets to higher levels?
As a polished college player
He SHOULD be able to hit well until he gets to a high enough level where pitchers can command their off speed pitches.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
I'm also a bit surprised Jennings hasn't dropped much
You guys generally tend to be injury adverse (e.g., no ranking of Hellickson), but he’s been having injury issues again this year. At this point, I see him being one of those guys who’s really good when he’s on the field, but misses 40 or so games a year.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Their injury adverse when it comes to pitchers
Hitter injuries are an entirely different animal. They certainly aren’t meaningless, but they are much less meaningful than injuries to pitchers are.
Starlin Castro
Adam, reading your blurb, I’m curious about why you don’t think Starlin can stick at short?
First off, I guess I should ask what you are referencing when you are referring to “stick”. Are you talking about 10 years down the road? I ask this because I don’t have much concerns over his defense in his arb eligible years. Obviously, this is an odd day to write this after his 3 errors and a very lackadaisical play, but one game is one game.
I have never thought that he’d be an elite shortstop (the side-arming/three-quarter slot arming is enough to make me think he wouldn’t be elite). That said, I have always believed two things on him that doesn’t get noted:
a) He has better speed than given credit for. Not plus, as one report had it when the hype was at it’s peak last year, but above average (I’ve noted it before, but I really don’t like the way he runs and think he’s an, overall, average baserunner in terms of technique).
b) His lateral mobility is quite solid. Like his baserunning, the technique could be improved (I believe it was much cleaner at Tennessee this year, but SSS).
Those two factors, combined with his arm strength and solid defensive instincts (admittedly, that part is based off what others report, I believe Goldstein recently quote a scout who said that Starlin’s defensive instincts were good), along with the fact that he’s nearly maxed out on his frame (in regards to good weight), leads me to be fairly confident in his abilities at short for, at least, the arb eligible years. All that said, someone could push him out if they are better (and yet, I don’t like what I’m hearing on Lee’s arm strength), but I feel like, on paper, he should be solid defensively for the next 4-6 years.
Re: Castro
Starlin Castro has a thick lower half, which you can clearly see in the current www.projectprospect.com home page photo.
Maxed out his frame? I highly doubt it. How many guys keep the same frame from age 20 to age 25?
I think Castro is going to slow down and outgrow shortstop within the next 2-3 years.
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I'm inclined to agree for the most part.... but I don't know that those things make him move off short.
I think they just prevent him from being a plus defensive player there. He still should be an excellent bat and average-ish defender at SS IMO.
Now, Hak-ju Lee… HE could move Castro of SS.
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I don't disagree with this
other than that I’m taking a wait and see on Lee … the arm reports are still very pedestrian/average at the moment, and his bat is still fringy.
Glowing reports from Frankie Piliere today
Fielding
Lee is the type of defender that already looks like a Gold Glove at shortstop. And it would be only this type of player that could displace a player like Castro at shortstop. He’s that special on the defensive side of things. He has a plus arm, which allows him to complete some spectacular plays. What’s most impressive is how easy he makes some of these difficult plays look.
He circles the ball in the hole to his right very well, and makes throws consistently off his back foot as if they were routine. His hands are outstanding, and the range to both sides would be among the best in the majors right now. It’s high praise and risky to make such a comparison, but Lee plays the position like a stronger armed Omar Vizquel.
http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/05/10/full-scouting-report-cubs-prospect-hak-ju-lee/
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Lee's athleticism and ability to get to plays is better
No doubt on that part, and I don’t disagree with that.
Pilere’s report on his arm runs counter to what I’ve heard at times this year, and runs counter to what was being reported last year (which was that his arm was still working his way back and wasn’t the plus arm that was exhibited back in 2008). That said, everyone has bad games, bad throws, once in awhile and I haven’t seen Lee in person this year yet to really know.
Lee's power
What’s your read on his bat? It seems to me that unless he adds some power, he’s not likely to be much more than a marginal hitter – can he be a 10-15 HR guy or is that too much to hope for?
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by OldProspects on May 11, 2010 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions
my own feeling
Let me first state that I am high on Lee. Let me also state that I think the hype on him has gone overboard. I read Pilere’s piece this afternoon, and for the most part, I agree with it. He’s a slap and dash hitter (I think those were Pilere’s words) who, due much to his speed, might be able to succeed, but I could see him become, offensively, more Juan Pierre than Jose Reyes.
From a HR perspective, I think 10 might be right at the high end. The question for me is how much gap power he has without reworking his swing. It’s not conducive to power, and he doesn’t have the explosion, of say, a Castro, IMO. Could he rework his swing and potentially go for more power? Perhaps, but he is somewhat maxed out on good weight with his frame right now (last I heard, he was closer to 180ish).
For the most part, I think Lee’s bat is far fringier, for lack of a term that comes to mind at 8pm right now, than many are acknowledging. Doesn’t mean he can’t slap/dash/run to some decent offensive production, but it’s hard for me to really love that bat at this moment. That said, as long as he provides something, he has a shot to have some role in the majors, and with his speed, he’s got a good shot at providing something.
Not saying Lee
is Ichiro, but that is the type of guy he could possibly develop into. It is a low percentage possibility, but..
http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/
by Matt Garrioch on May 12, 2010 1:22 AM EDT up reply actions
in terms of good weight
let me explain this a bit. I think many folks are anticipating that he’s going to put on a lot of weight. Frame expectations have always pegged him to be a 190-200 pound guy … which is what he’s at right now. If you take the physical points on the body through which frame expectations are typically judged by, it’s hard to imagine that he has room for more good weight.
That’s a big difference from physical maturation. He might/should go through physical maturation (muscular buildup if he wants to), but his weight, in terms of good weight, is probably maxed out in that regards. Now, if he wants to go on an eating binge and wreck his career, fine, that I wouldn’t be able to predict. His body likely wouldn’t be able to handle that.
actually
if you take a look at the picture you have on your website, it would actually help support what I’m saying in regards to frame. This may be a terminology issue, and admittedly, a lot of this references more towards football frame terminology, but, well, simply put, he doesn’t have the butt to suggest that he’ll handle much more good weight.
There’s a line I’m drawing with frame and physical maturation and I think that’s where we’re crossing each other right now. He might add more muscle, but in terms of good weight, IMO (and I’m certainly no expert), I don’t think he has much room left for it. As noted, if he wants to wreck his body, that wouldn’t be good weight.
Dee Gordon
Alskor referenced him earlier, but Adam do you guys still think that Gordon has practically no shot at being an everyday SS in the bigs? The kid has been red hot pretty much all year thus far, and his D seems to be improved.
I’d bet against Gordon ever becoming an average big leaguer.
Red hot pretty much all year. Are you sure about that?
AdamWFoster on Twitter
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With the kind of range he supposedly has?
I’d definitely expect him to be an average MLB player even if his bat never develops.
You keep saying that Adam
I remember having this discussion going into the year. And I have yet to hear a valid argument as to why you feel that way, other than he was old for his level last year.
I don’t know how much emphasis I even put on Gordon’s age versus level. My primary hesitations with him are his lack of patience and power.
AdamWFoster on Twitter
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red hot?
his line of .278/.308/.349 has something to say about that.
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
I said "pretty much"
He has been in a slump the last week or so. 10 days ago his Avg was up close to .350.
well considering that the season is 29 games deep
the last 10 days have made up a significant portion of Gordon’s overall year….
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
You guys are killing me today
This is ridiculous.
Red hot all year
He’s been batting .266 with a .634 OPS – what red hot are you talking about?
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on May 11, 2010 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Sorry for the double-post
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on May 11, 2010 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions
What does it say when an organization has a legitimate prospect(s) who is/are significantly better defenders than you and play the same position?
AdamWFoster on Twitter
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That they have two excellent SS prospects?
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on May 11, 2010 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I have to say
I love that Adam directly responds to the questions and criticisms posted here. I think a lot of people here are very quick to attack anyone whose view is even SLIGHTLY different than that of John Sickels, Keith Law, or the guys at BA, maybe Kevin Goldstein. But there is a lot of passion here, and I think the majority (or at least a significant percentage) of posters here are looking for added info and perspective.
by auclairkeithbc on May 11, 2010 2:41 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Thanks
I always enjoy talking prospects with this community. There are tons of educated people here and there’s no questioning the enthusiasm.
Prospecting should be a community or team effort. It takes a lot of people to accurately gauge the pulse of the minor leagues.
AdamWFoster on Twitter
Projectprospect.com Founder
Thanks Adam
I, for one, appreciate the fact that you do not shy away from the criticisms this community has given PP over the years. Some of it has been warranted, but the majority has been unfair.
If nothing else, you guys posting a top 25 list and then coming over here to defend it does lead to some pretty good discussions.
Gracias
This has been a great discussion.
I went back and checked, and this thread has more comments than any top 100 list generated during the offseason. Cool.
We’re always learning. I have no problem with being wrong. Hopefully we learn from our errors and grow because of them. I decided to work on this particular Top 25 list alone so that I could take 100% of the criticism for every decision.
AdamWFoster on Twitter
Projectprospect.com Founder
by Adam Foster on May 12, 2010 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Pineda
no where near top 25, but curious about thoughts on Pineda. Churchill reported that his fastball was a tick higher, I think, and that his slider was sharper. He’s showing good control and striking folks out in AA. The flyball rate is a bit high, but one step at a time.
Hmm
I’d have to say that having Desmond Jennings ahead of Misheal Stanton is a MAJOR error. I’d even have to ask youto actually reconsider that.
In Jennings we are basically talking about a 23 year old guy with a Shannon Stewart type profile vs Mike Stanton, who is doing what Adam Dunn did in the SL, only killing it more, at a year younger.
I’m sure the reasoning is the same tired one always use with lists, some crap about floor and ceiling. Well, to me its a copout – YOU and I meen really, anybody, who’s making a list has to make … a … call on how good a guy is going to be and I have absolutely no problem seeing that Mike Stanton is a guiy with the potential to put runs on the scorboard at an amazing rate and that Jennings looks like a guy like Shannon Stewart (former Blue Jay, if you remember). Stewart was a nice all around player but, c’mon now. Unless Jennings is like one of the greatest CF’s of All-Time or something, I just don’t see it.
..and Stanton doesn’t have problems staying on the field.
You guys can have all the doubts about Stanton and his strikouts all you want, but If I was you Id “come on in”, as it were.
Mike Stanton looks for all the world like a kid who’ll be an All-Star by the time he’sJennings age.
I’m sorry but, in my opinion that is just a remarkably bad ranking. Just my opinion obviously. To me if you think Stanton’s K’s are going to eat him out of the league you should just show some guts and mover him down the list – dont hedge – scout, like you say you do
I always catch myself scratching
my head with Adam’s lists, they vary so much from others. But I have tracked him for a while yet and he fairs well. But I have grown to be entertained/impressed by his ability to paddle against the current of popular opinion and make some solid out of the box predictions.
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."
by fourfingerwoo on May 11, 2010 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Actually
The current popular opinion is that Desmond Jennings is a top 10 prospect and that Micheal Stanton has holes in his swing and that there is question marks about his ability to hit in the big leagues.
Let me stand alone, as the first person Ive read to say . . . I don’t have doubts about him. The power, the eye, the adjustments, the age, the OF skill. He;‘s going to be a real All-Star and a lot better player than Desond Jennings. It also isn’t very hard to see.
I’d be glad to debate the two, but calling out this decision as a major error may be a little over-the-top. I ranked Jennings and Stanton back-to-back on my list because both are very impressive prospects.
AdamWFoster on Twitter
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Okay maybe
Don’t mean to be so devisive but the difference in thier relative potential’s is rather massive IMO. Maybe I am missinmg something in regards to Jennings – does he really- profile as a top flight CF’r, for instance. To me, he looks like a good, solid allaround player – sort of like a Jacoby Ellsburry – a fine player.
Stanton looks like a guy who’s the next, great power hitter of our generation – doesnt he. He’s destroying the SL at the age of 20! Take a good look at a (short) list of guys who have done that and Id bet they are pretty good- like several Hall of Fame type talents good.
By the way, Id like to add that the idea that a guy ranked 9th is the same as a guy ranked 18th or 4th is all relatively similar is wrong to me. It’ll certainly get you last place if one drafts that way.
Everyone I’ve talked to who’s seen Jennings play regularly has told me that they think he’s an above-average defender in center field. So he could have a huge advantage in defensive value over Stanton.
AdamWFoster on Twitter
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so
has stanton shown to be a well above average player in CF and RF. His routes are fine and his arm is a complete cannon
He's huge and will likely get bigger
How many big leaguers have been Stanton’s size and provided average defensive value in the outfield over the last 10 years?
AdamWFoster on Twitter
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Casey Kelly
over Friedrich, doesn’t calculate for me.
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."
Not to be too harsh
but a group of schoolgirls taking a field trip to a ballgame would be able to see that Aroldis Chapman has the frame, the easy velocity, the makings of two good off-speed pitches, and that for his age and experience, and massive upside potential of his stuff that his control is actually quite good.
Not only is he a LOT better than the 25th most talented guy, his “floor”, whatever the hell that means is high too since he’ll probaly have 8-9 wins in the big leagues by the years end.
How freaking hard is it to spot Cahpman’s amazing ability guys? Really? You guys do this for a living?
So you really DON'T understand what "floor" means.
Your involvement in this thread makes a whole lot more sense now.
Floor means the worst that that player could conceivably become if he does not improve or regresses in talent. If Aroldis Chapman never learns to control his stuff, he’ll be a flameout pitching prospect who can’t find the plate. There are tons of guys like this. If a guy like Casey Kelly never progresses, he’ll be something like a 5 starter or long reliever in the big leagues, but that’s still better than a guy pitching for the Independent League because he can’t find home plate.
"You seen my cell phone?" "What’s it look like?" "Like two horses f***ing. It’s a phone, son. It looks like a phone."
by CaliforniaJag on May 16, 2010 3:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Disagree, I think Chapman could excel as a reliever without any development
He needs a lot of time to work on command and control to excel as a starter and I hope he gets that opportunity.
Um, if Casey Kelly never progresses
he’ll be a crappy reliever at best. Obviously all minor leaguers have a ways to go before they’ll be in any way valuable major leaguers, which is why the term “floor” is a bit nonsensical. (As is ceiling). In other words, it’s helpful only if you don’t think about it too seriously
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on May 16, 2010 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions
+1 to this
it’s helpful only if you don’t think about it too seriously
if you overthink floor and ceiling, then every prospect has an identical floor and ceiling.
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
That is NOT what a floor is
Young players in A ball can be high floor/low ceiling types as easily as AAA pitchers. Anyone can regress. Strasburg’s floor is that he is an unsuccessful major leaguer according to you, because that could conceivably happen.
by auclairkeithbc on May 17, 2010 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Micheal Montgomery
Is he slow or something? Why does Micheal Montgomery getto start the season in A+ and get moved to AA and garner excellent praise and a #16 spot on a prestigous list when Madison Bumgarner takes 2 starts to adjust to AAA and dominated A+ in 2008!
Montgomery is one montgh older than Madison. Pick it up Micheal! You’ve got a ways to go to get to Mad-Bum static. Must be nice to pitch at a level that fits with your skills and development as a player eh?
Right
So the kiddies in the Sally league, who are way more skilled at hitting fastballs than anything else, couldn’t touch Madison
either in the Cal, or the EL, or the major leagues
We’ve all been over this, and over, and over.
So...
What are you getting at? Madbum (when his velocity is up) has a better FB than Monty? Ok, not sure I agree, but I’ll give you that. However we’re still missing any sort of a breaking ball. And what does age matter when comparing the two? one was drafted in 07 and one in 08. Don’t blame Montgomery for Madbum being more ready to tackle Kindergarten back in 1994.
I blame him
because he hasnt BLAZED through the minors like Madison has. Its kinda dumb to think Montgomeryis better regardless of rampant Bumgarner-stuff-propaganda.
Madison is 20 years old and pitched well in the big leagues last year. Would Montgomery wet himself if given the chance? Get shelled? Who knows but Im not ranking Mongomery ahead of Madison – its laughable.
wetting yourself on the mound
That would probably be a “check minus” under the makeup column . . .
Madbum spent his entire first full season in A-, Monty in A- and A+. Bum went A+, AA, and the Majors in his second season, Monty A+, AA and ?. So as long as Montgomery throws 10 meaningless major league innings this year, you’ll be fine with him being ranked ahead of Bumgarner, correct?
No
He will have needed to throw 10 meaningless innings LAST year actually. So it’ll be pretty hard for him to ever catch up really.
By the way, not that you care or you’d already know, when when Bumgarner debuted in the big leagues last year on September 8th, the Giants were 3 games out of the Wiold Card race – and he was making an emergency start – and pitched well.
It may have been meaningless to you, but it was about as high pressure and meaningfull as a game can get for a 20 year old, and for the Giants.
Again
You’re blaming Mr and Mrs. Montgomery for not thinking their son was ready for school 16 years ago. By your logic, MM would have had to throw 140 innings in low A when he was a senior in HS. It’s a baseless argument.
Should Bumgarner be ranked ahead of Strasburg too then? That idiot went to college.
by Kerm on May 11, 2010 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I agree
Its a little unfair, but still – it does beg a question…
Could Montgomery have pitched well if he was givin an emergency start in the big leagues lst year on Sept 8th?
Other ones too such as why does Bumgarner have to be pushed so hard? For what reason? To potentially injure an amazing young talent?
Im not blaming Montgomery’s parents, or Montomery- hes fine- I havent even seen him throw. My main point is every time Bumgarner sneezez, he has someone jump don his back around here and what he has done is AMAZING – hes pitching well at AAA !!!
Point of order
(A-) generally refers to short-season ball A ball, i.e. the NYPL and the NWL. (A) is for Low-A.
I know some outlets do it the way you have it (I think the MLBA?), but they are being stupid and in conflict with the existing nomenclature.
Yep
My bad, I generally do refer to it the way you stated.
I feel terrible.
nah
ranking Montgomery over Madison Bum
is defendable because there are CONFIRMED reports that Madison’s velocity has been down a bit and down for quite a while now.
c-ase-jud
Wow Blackburn makes nearly identical money as Baker does now....
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on May 11, 2010 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions
And because Bumgarner's secondary stuff sucks anyway
"The A's have to be setting some record this year for simultaneously maximizing team quality and player anonymity. I guess that’s sort of their thing though." - Luke in MN
OK
Then he absolutely, positively, has the greatest pitchabilty of any piter ever!!
Mediocre fastball, and a bad curveball?
You guys just make yourself look stupid when you say this stuff.
He has such great fastball command that he dominated when he was throwing 90 last year – hes got a good curveball – and hes going to have an outstanding change IMO
I have admit to being a tad concerned with his velocity drop too. Nobody mentions this but Why does Madbum have to be treated as the prodigy by the Giants orginization anyways? By this I mean, why not let him pitch most the season last year in the CAL and then most of this year in AA? Just wondering what is really gained in pushing him this, abnormally, hard. Especially if he injures himself while doing it. Everybody is rooting against him around here but really, he’s been asked to do a whole lot for a 20 year old kid.
Last I checked, Bumgarner didn’t throw a curveball.
Outstanding change?
Your description of Bumgarner doesn’t align with what I’ve seen.
AdamWFoster on Twitter
Projectprospect.com Founder
Here
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100323&content_id=8882030&vkey=news_sf&fext=.jsp&c_id=sf
at 27 seconds he throws a curve, and Mayo or whoever describes it as a curve – the next pitch 30 seconds or so – looks slower, like a change.
You guys have to tell ME, what pitch he has then – why he’s able to get everybody out for the most part .
Thanks for the video link
I’ve always considered Bumgarner’s breaking ball to be a slider. Either way, it’s a baby breaking ball.
Bumgarner’s success has stemmed from his ability to command a deceptive fastball. His low-3/4 arm slot doesn’t allow hitters to see the ball well.
AdamWFoster on Twitter
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Hes awesome
and my favorite pitcher – so I admit to be passionate about defending him.
He’s been pushed hard and is struggling some but, I really think has gone from a tad overated to EXTREMELY underated now.
Dont exactly agree with Montgomery being abetter prospect, but I havent seen him throw.
We have some great video of Montgomery in the Digital Prospect Guide.
I would have never guessed that Bumgarner is your favorite pitcher :).
AdamWFoster on Twitter
Projectprospect.com Founder
He doesn't have a good curve/slider/whatever
Have you seen it? It’s not sharp at all.
I don’t see why he’s supposed to have an outstanding change, either.
You just don’t understand that someone with a deceptive delivery and great fastball command can dominate minor league hitters.
"The A's have to be setting some record this year for simultaneously maximizing team quality and player anonymity. I guess that’s sort of their thing though." - Luke in MN
Good stuff Adam
I don’t totally agree, but no one looks completely out of place.
I agree that it takes an army to stay on top of the minor leagues. There are so many prospects in the minors, it helps to get a variety of opinions. The question is, who do you listen to. I have a huge list of minor leaguers and I have guys ranked in the 1000’s that will be major leaguers. PP goes with the high floor approach for the most part but there are so many players in the minors who could be average major leaguers, they just don’t get the opportunity. Filtering these guys out is tough.
My biggest question on this list is Mike Trout. Just looking at floor, how is he ahead of Brett Wallace and Grant Green?
http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/
Thanks Matt
On floor, I’m confident that Trout will be an above-average defender. He also has demonstrated patience at the plate — both when I saw him play in ST and in the numbers — as well as contact ability and power. I think he’s a very well-rounded player.
Wallace may be an average defender at first base. I’ve been impressed by his footwork, soft hands and arm. It’s just his lack of range and lateral quickness that could hold him back. He’s a very good bet to be at least an average Major League hitter, though.
I wasn’t enamored with Grant Green as a college player and he hasn’t changed my mind yet in his brief time with the A’s.
AdamWFoster on Twitter
Projectprospect.com Founder
Btw
Just wanted to say thanks for discussing these prospects, and your list with me – and for posting it.
We tend to focus on what we disagree with but, I really like how you guys focus on what you’ve seen with 2 eyes and see the value in the solid or average big leaguer and, are willing to discuss it. I appreciate it and, Im sorry for being abrasive as I often am :-)
You do great work!
Hosmer?
Not advocating a top 25 but what about Eric Hosmer as a HM? Clearly (no pun intended) off season Lasik surgery has definitely turned his career around. At A+ Wilmington he is now hitting a remarkable .390 with only 11Ks to 19 BB with an OPS of 1047. He is only 20 years old and he is obviously seeing the ball better.
Hosmer
You do realize he’s on pace for 3-5 home runs this season, right?
And his BABIP is .436.
He’s moving in a promising direction, but his power numbers aren’t that impressive, especially when you factor in his unsustainable BABIP.
AdamWFoster on Twitter
Projectprospect.com Founder
by Adam Foster on May 12, 2010 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Side Effect of Wilmington?
He’s slugging .500 at home while .639 away. Just a thought
I don't know
When a guy is hitting for as high as an average as Hosmer is, I don’t exactly get the impression that his offense is somehow depressed at this point . . .I’m pretty sure he’s hitting the ball as hard as he can.
+1
I agree. Hosmer is hitting remarkably well.
I love that you all are here and I ain’t hatin’, but some of you all get lost in the numbers. The kid is raking and that’s that.
"Most overrated prospect in the minors." -- Bravesin07 on Madison Bumgarner
by criminal type on May 14, 2010 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Batting Average?
Entering the day Hosmer’s BABIP was over 3 deviations higher than the typical Carolina League BABIP.
His walk and strikeout rates are promising. His power and ground-ball rates…not so much. Again, heading in the right direction but it’s not a breakout yet.
AdamWFoster on Twitter
Projectprospect.com Founder
I dont like this list. Lars Anderson is not NEAR the top 25.
and how is Aroldis Chapman not in there?
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by bestbostonsports on May 13, 2010 2:37 PM EDT reply actions
Whose weak start is more concerning?
Josh Bell has 6 dingers but a .247 AVG and his K/BB is awful compared to where it was last year
Lonnie Chisenhall hasn’t yet hit a single homer and his average is mediocre, but his K/BB is still okay
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on May 16, 2010 7:30 PM EDT reply actions
Bell
He needs to produce offensively because I’m not sold on his defense. I am not at all concerned about Chisenhall.
whoops
traded Chiz for Bell, but only because i think bell will hit the majors first. Chiz is still further away from the majors and has competition from Hodges. I think Bell doesn’t need to do much to at least get a shot, where Chiz does.
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by The Congo Hammer on May 17, 2010 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
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