Community Projection: Stephen Strasburg
by John Sickels on Apr 5, 2010 9:00 AM EDT
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PrintFor our last projection, we will do the King of All Prospects: Stephen Strasburg of the Washington Nationals.
He's beginning the season in the minors of course, and obviously your projection will reflect how quickly you believe he will be promoted to Washington.
Project the following numbers in order, for ease of data entry:
Games
Games Started
Complete Games
Wins
Losses
Innings
Runs Allowed
Earned Runs Allowed
ERA (make sure math is right)
Walks Allowed
Strikeouts
Hits Allowed
Home Runs Allowed
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Games – 22
Games Started – 22
Complete Games – 0
Wins – 6
Losses – 9
Innings – 125
Runs Allowed – 53
Earned Runs Allowed – 50
ERA (make sure math is right) – 3.60
Walks Allowed – 48
Strikeouts – 118
Hits Allowed -125
Home Runs Allowed – 13
Why? Because college hitters chased his fastball wherever he threw it?
I just don’t think that Strasburg has nearly the command most people give him credit for. A BB rate of 3.4 might be a bit on the high side, but I don’t think it unreasonable. I just think Strasburg will trade more walks for less contact early in his career. If he posts a significantly lower BB rate, I expect a lower K rate and a higher HR rate.
No...
it wasn’t because college hitters chased his fastball. He threw for contact in college, but his stuff is so good most college hitters couldn’t hit it. If you have ever seen him pitch, you will understand why people are so high on his command.
indeed
He doesn’t have Mark Prior’s refined command coming out of college, but this is a guy who has a very good idea of how to pitch.
Did I say something different?
I just said that his BB rate from college is relatively meaningless in terms of his command because college players would pretty much swing at the fastball regardless. I believe it was his 23 strikeout game where something along the lines of 24 of 37 swings and misses came on balls out of the zone. That sort of stuff isn’t going to happen against ML hitters and his numbers are likely going to suffer a good deal (not a ton though) as a result.
was not responding specifically to you
That being said, you really need to get over your aversion to looking at college statistics. Nobody’s asking him to strike out 23 dudes a game. Will he be the same pitcher he was in college? If he is, he’s arguably the best pitcher of all time, which sounds as preposterous to me as it should to you.
Prior had an even lower walk rate (although it wasn’t a huge difference and Strasburg struck out more guys, hard as it is to believe) and nobody doubted his command. Prior absolutely eviscerated minor league competition and struck out more than 11 batters per 9 innings in his rookie season, less than a year after pitching in college. And Strasburg’s raw stuff is even better. While major leaguers have heard what to expect, I suspect people are going to be startled at just how friggin tough to hit this guy is.
I've never said I had an aversion to looking at college stats
I know how to use thebaseballcube just like you do. All I ever said was that college experience wasn’t nearly as relevant as pro experience in projecting a player to the majors. Do you actually disagree with that?
I love how you bring up Prior and command, then quickly switch to his strike out numbers. I projected Strasburg to walk 3.45 per 9; Mark Prior walked 2.93 per 9 and, as you mentioned, his command was more refined coming out of school. It’s not like I ever said Strasburg had bad command, I just said I thought people were assuming too much about it based on his low walk rate in college.
Projection
Games – 30
Games Started – 30
Complete Games – 25
Wins – 26
Losses – 2
Innings – 265
Runs Allowed – 31
Earned Runs Allowed – 30
ERA (make sure math is right) – 1.02
Walks Allowed – 5
Strikeouts – 530
Hits Allowed -100
Home Runs Allowed – 1
:)
[John: exclude this entry from your calcuations, please]
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Mine
Games – 18
Games Started – 17
Complete Games – 0
Wins – 9
Losses – 4
Innings – 111.2
Runs Allowed – 57
Earned Runs Allowed – 52
ERA (make sure math is right) – 4.65
Walks Allowed – 47
Strikeouts – 120
Hits Allowed – 90
Home Runs Allowed – 5
I think he has a debut not unlike Liriano's in 2006
Games – 25
Games Started – 23
Complete Games – 0
Wins – 13
Losses – 6
Innings – 176.2
Runs Allowed – 48
Earned Runs Allowed – 57
ERA (make sure math is right) – 2.45
Walks Allowed – 41
Strikeouts – 187
Hits Allowed – 142
Home Runs Allowed – 9
Basically, first time through the league, in the NL, I think he’s going to flat-out dominate, with a slight regression in his sophomore effort.
That's a completely unrealistic number of IP given the number of starts
You have him averaging over 7 innings per game pitched despite the fact that you don’t even have him starting two of those games. You essentially predicting the same number of innings per start as league leader Roy Halladay had last season (and Halladay had 9 CG compared to the 0 you project for Strasburg). I won’t address any of the other numbers because they are purely opinion and they aren’t that crazy, but the number of innings pitched just isn’t possible.
I was using Liriano as a baseline
Liriano averaged around 7.5 a game in his stint. I think Stras will be dominant enough in his first run through the league (and clearly, I’m predicting him to be fairly efficient) to warrant the stretched out IP. I could see maybe 10-20 fewer innings given the G:GS discrepancy (which I changed quickly after finishing the other numbers, and admittedly forgot to adjust for).
by RedSoxFaithful on Apr 5, 2010 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
No he didn't
You’re only looking at GS and comparing it to IP. Liriano pitched out of the bullpen in 12 of his 28 appearances that year. That’s the only reason his IP per start is at 7 and a half. As a starter he threw 98.2 innings in 16 starts, or just over 6 IP a start. As I said, 7.5 IP a start would be beyond insane for a young rookie. Even Prior barely went over 7 in the year Dusty and the Cubs pitched him into the ground.
Modest Debut
Games 24
Games Started 23
Complete Games 0
Wins 8
Losses 12
Innings 124
Runs Allowed 64
Earned Runs Allowed 56
ERA 4.06
Walks Allowed 46
Strikeouts 118
Hits Allowed 119
Home Runs Allowed 10
good enough to "live up to" hype
Games: 19
Games Started: 19
Complete Games: 0
Wins: 7
Losses: 8
Innings: 103
Runs Allowed: 49
Earned Runs Allowed: 47
ERA:4.10
Walks Allowed: 35
Strikeouts: 100
Hits Allowed: 115
Home Runs Allowed: 17
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
oops
realized the k/IP ratio is a little silly. oh well.
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
Actually
That’s one of your least ludicrous predictions. The most egregious being your laughable HR rate.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Apr 6, 2010 12:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Exactly What I Felt
Even major leaguers will have issues lifting his stuff.
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Mine
Games 20
Games Started 15
Complete Games 0
Wins 8
Losses 4
Innings 97
Runs Allowed 42
Earned Runs Allowed 36
ERA (make sure math is right) 3.34
Walks Allowed 32
Strikeouts 116
Hits Allowed 90
Home Runs Allowed 9
He probably only pitches 150-160 total innings, including minor leagues. I figure about 8-9 starts in the minors before coming up. He gets about nine or ten quality starts as well.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Apr 6, 2010 12:41 AM EDT reply actions
1.61803399
You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220
strasburg
Games – 21
Games Started – 21
Complete Games – 0
Wins – 7
Losses – 7
Innings – 120
Runs Allowed – 63
Earned Runs Allowed – 57
ERA (make sure math is right) – 4.27
Walks Allowed – 40
Strikeouts – 100
Hits Allowed -125
Home Runs Allowed – 10
Whip – 1.37
Stras-O-Matic
Arb clock delay + innings cap + the Nats not playing for anything this season = limited big league action
Games – 17
Games Started – 17
Complete Games – 0
Wins – 7
Losses – 3
Innings – 104 2/3
Runs Allowed – 44
Earned Runs Allowed – 39
ERA (make sure math is right) – 3.35
Walks Allowed – 29
Strikeouts – 100
Hits Allowed – 91
Home Runs Allowed – 12
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