I've just traded away Pedro Alvarez in a 30 team DMB league (for Chase Headley and Franklin Morales), mostly because I'm starting to get spooked that he's in some sort of Andy Marte-Alex Gordon vortex of perpetual tease-and-disappoint, and that I had to break ties.
As a 23 year old in AAA, he's currently putting up 237/318/421. Now, some of this is poor luck: his BABIP is right around .280, and surely that will go up. But he's also got 22 strikeouts in 84 plate appearances, and just 8 walks. I suppose that's what is spooking me.
Small sample size is a harlot, but there is a larger narrative I'm seeing, a track record of perpetual underachievement. What do I see in Alvarez? As a ceiling, I see a young Troy Glaus, but remember: at Pedro's age, Glaus was somewhere between a SS and a 3B, and that athleticism served him well as he bulked up and aged. Pedro is starting off as somewhere between a 3B and 1B, and one who has continual questions and issues with conditioning.
Also: Pedro the Lion turns into Jars of Clay when facing LH pitching: 190/227/238. Last year, cumulatively, against lefties: 267/320/394, and that is WITH a .393 BABIP against lefties.
Is Keith Law right? Pedro has big time power, obviously, and when he's on a hot streak, he looks like Mark Reynolds 2.0. Is that what the current best case scenario is for him? Or are there reasons to withhold such judgment?
What is the best comp for Pedro Alvarez's MLB production and career arc?
Troy Glaus (29 votes)
Andy Marte (17 votes)
Mark Reynolds (18 votes)
Jim Thome (27 votes)
Alex Gordon (13 votes)
Carlos Lee (16 votes)
Aramis Ramirez (46 votes)
Other (list below) (12 votes)
178 total votes