I've just traded away Pedro Alvarez in a 30 team DMB league (for Chase Headley and Franklin Morales), mostly because I'm starting to get spooked that he's in some sort of Andy Marte-Alex Gordon vortex of perpetual tease-and-disappoint, and that I had to break ties.
As a 23 year old in AAA, he's currently putting up 237/318/421. Now, some of this is poor luck: his BABIP is right around .280, and surely that will go up. But he's also got 22 strikeouts in 84 plate appearances, and just 8 walks. I suppose that's what is spooking me.
Small sample size is a harlot, but there is a larger narrative I'm seeing, a track record of perpetual underachievement. What do I see in Alvarez? As a ceiling, I see a young Troy Glaus, but remember: at Pedro's age, Glaus was somewhere between a SS and a 3B, and that athleticism served him well as he bulked up and aged. Pedro is starting off as somewhere between a 3B and 1B, and one who has continual questions and issues with conditioning.
Also: Pedro the Lion turns into Jars of Clay when facing LH pitching: 190/227/238. Last year, cumulatively, against lefties: 267/320/394, and that is WITH a .393 BABIP against lefties.
Is Keith Law right? Pedro has big time power, obviously, and when he's on a hot streak, he looks like Mark Reynolds 2.0. Is that what the current best case scenario is for him? Or are there reasons to withhold such judgment?