Pedro Alvarez: has the time for concern arrived?
by gogotabata on Apr 29, 2010 2:57 PM EDT
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PrintI've just traded away Pedro Alvarez in a 30 team DMB league (for Chase Headley and Franklin Morales), mostly because I'm starting to get spooked that he's in some sort of Andy Marte-Alex Gordon vortex of perpetual tease-and-disappoint, and that I had to break ties.
As a 23 year old in AAA, he's currently putting up 237/318/421. Now, some of this is poor luck: his BABIP is right around .280, and surely that will go up. But he's also got 22 strikeouts in 84 plate appearances, and just 8 walks. I suppose that's what is spooking me.
Small sample size is a harlot, but there is a larger narrative I'm seeing, a track record of perpetual underachievement. What do I see in Alvarez? As a ceiling, I see a young Troy Glaus, but remember: at Pedro's age, Glaus was somewhere between a SS and a 3B, and that athleticism served him well as he bulked up and aged. Pedro is starting off as somewhere between a 3B and 1B, and one who has continual questions and issues with conditioning.
Also: Pedro the Lion turns into Jars of Clay when facing LH pitching: 190/227/238. Last year, cumulatively, against lefties: 267/320/394, and that is WITH a .393 BABIP against lefties.
Is Keith Law right? Pedro has big time power, obviously, and when he's on a hot streak, he looks like Mark Reynolds 2.0. Is that what the current best case scenario is for him? Or are there reasons to withhold such judgment?
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I still like the Thome comp (adjusting for environment)
I don’t think Alvarez ever quite gets to 40 HRs (whereas Thome was in that range and above in the early 2000s). He will probably also have a lower average and OBP, but he fits the best when you consider defense.
When Thome was 22 (the age Pedro was last year), he was hitting 332/441/585 in AAA (the INT league) in 115 games, then hit 266/385/474 in 47 ML games
In AAA, Thome had 94 strikeouts and 76 walks in 410 at bats as a 22 year old.
At the same age, Pedro put up a 290/379/539 line between hi-A and AA. In terms of strikeouts and walks, Pedro had 129 Ks and 70 walks in 462 at bats.
I’m thinking Thome is an almost wildly optimistic comp. At the same age, Pedro was facing lesser competition, putting up lesser numbers, and striking out at a higher clip.
Even Glaus might be optimistic. At 23, Glaus was putting up 284/404/604 in the majors; a different era, yeah, but still. I think the Toronto Glaus is what Alvarez ends up being.
Thome still OK with me, too
I have not given up on Alvarez, and I think we will eventually get it together.
I love DMB by the way. Best baseball Sim ever. And someday they may even issue v10.
Keep Moving Forward.
I like OOTP better
And you get all seasons for free, you don’t have to pay for season disks. You wanna play as the big red machine with Rose and Morgan, you got it.
Ok, that’s my plug for the day.
I’ve never thought much of Alvarez, and really think that he will not amount to much at the MLB level, should he make it.
It takes neither courage nor intelligence to cheer for a team only when that team wins. The true test of a fan's mettle is the same as it is for a player: Were you there when you were needed?
aka Solace
"Track record of perpetual underachievement"
…Seems a little harsh.
Last April in High A ball: 219/341/397.
I’ll vote Mo Vaughn on the comp. I think he’ll rake but be a relatively early decliner.
I suppose I'm thinking
if Pedro is going to be an all-star cleanup hitter, like Thome, he shouldn’t have these protracted adjustment issues. He had the hamate issue, of course, but his last season at Vanderbilt was a disappointment, but not bad enough to knock him down from his pre-injury pedestal; likewise, his second half last year seemed to erase all the trouble he had at hi-A.
I’m just thinking there are guys who seem to start off as elite prospects due to perceived tools and amateur performance, and then keep that elite status by performing just well enough in the minors to not throw up mega red flags. I suppose Delmon Young and Alex Gordon come immediately to mind.
Alvarez has three specific red flags: 1) the strikeouts, 2) the platoon split, 3) the weight/conditioning/position flag.
My hypothesis: his elite status, and AA numbers, are keeping many of us from taking these red flags as possible road blocks to ML dominance.
How many all-star caliber cleanup hitters had this many red flags in hi-A/AA/AAA? Mark Reynolds? Who else?
Well
I can’t predict the future and I pretty much agree with the three red flags, but I’d rather ride with Alvarez and his (whatever percent) chance of stardom than settle for a high probability of mediocrity in Headley.
I mean, no offense, your argument is fairly rational, but the tone of your post is high panic. I’m not sure why you had to make this trade, or why it had to happen now.
I knew I shouldn't have titled this post "Pedro Alvarez: All Hope Is Lost"
It’s a question as to how to read the tea leaves. I decided to cut bait a little early; I think Headley is a 290-310/360-380/450-470 type of guy, with average to slightly above average D at third. Morales is just a wild card high ceiling arm for me. The rest of my future infield is Carlos Santana/Ike Davis/Sean Rodriguez/Alcides Escobar, and Pedro’s looming position switch, and my growing skepticism concerning his bat, fed the impulse to deal.
He still has a decent likelihood to be an all-star caliber bat; my certainty has slipped enough to just decide to let someone else take on the risk/reward.
I’m either bailing too early, or catching onto something a little early; or maybe he just ends up being pretty okay, but viewed as a disappointment because of the early promise.
Lol, nice subject line
Two questions:
1. Is defense a scoring factor in your fantasy league, or are you concerned about Alvarez getting moved off of 3B?
2. Are you a Pirates fan?
I don’t mean to give you a hard time by the way. I have no idea what it’s like to play in a 30 team league.
no worries
It’s a simulation league, so defense matters as much as it does in real life; since I have Alcides Escobar, S. Rodriguez and Ike Davis also in the infield, I’m hoping to do the whole synergistic great defense thing, where a bunch of slightly above average (or in Escobar’s hopeful case, way above average) defenders combine for an excess of run prevention. Also, since it’s a sim league, park factors don’t really play too much (that is, I don’t get hurt by Headley being in Petco, except maybe in perceived value).
Not a Pirates fan at all, though I’d like to see the franchise rebound. In the DMB league, I’m the Cardinals, though I’m a big Mariners fan in real life.
Small sample size is a harlot
The most important part of this post. You might be right that he isn’t going to pan out (plenty of prospects don’t), but what he’s done so far this year should barely even register as a data point in that evaluation.
One example I remember last year was Starlin Castro, who at the end of April had 67 PA and a line that read: .200/.235/.200. I remember this as I included him in a trade, think that he was just an short-season ball gamble who was overmatched. Of course, that blew up in my face rather quickly.
yes but his struggles against LHP are not just from this year
I often mentioned this as to why I was always lower on Alvarez than others…
or
maybe he is just a slow starter, how about we wait till at least more than 70 some AB’s. The k’s are a concern, however he improved every month in regards to those last year. Lefty splits well it is something to pay attention too but more repetitions against better lefties usually help to improve a batter as talented as pedro long term.
And as for who had red flags, I’d say Ryan Howard had a few.
I'm not too knowledgeable about baseball prospecting but a few thoughts/questions
1. Pedro has struck out quite a bit at every level he’s played, including college (23%)
A+ 29%
AA 27%
AAA 29% so far
So the Ks have always been there with him, and they haven’t really spiked as he has moved up the food chain. That is probably not a bad thing.
2. Are Alvarez’s struggles against LHPs common for lefty power hitters and do they go away as prospects gain experience? That is the key issue with Alvarez, IMO. I imagine this has been studied before, so if anyone knows the general trend here I’d LOVE to hear it.
3. Most of the reports about Alvarez ultimately needing to move to 1B are more due to the way he looks than the way he plays. I have read lots of reports about Alvarez being a competent defensive 3B at present.
I’m a Pirates fan and therefore am intensely interested in Alvarez and am also concerned about his performance in AAA thus far. I’d love to hear the thoughts of this community w/respect to #2 as that seems to be the key with him.
for what its worth
ryan howard has a 1.065 OPS vs RH and .749 vs LH in his career
you're going to hate me for this, gogotabata
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/6/1/543649/predict-who-will-be-the-to#6684030
Technically I’m not patting myself on the back . . .I’m patting the two-years-ago version of me on the back.
As for DrunkIrish . . .ouch.
no, I'll pat you on the back as well
I think you nailed it, two years early — Burrell is actually looking like a good Pedro comp . . .
fwiw
I look pretty bad in other points of that post, and really good in others.
Thinking about it, it’s a post that everybody should check out, especially some of the newcomers . . .it’s always fun to look back and see what seemed reasonable at the time. I’m not the only one who whiffed in some places. :)
I am pretty proud of my list....
I think I will give myself a pat on the back for those predictions. I picked Jennings for a top 10 prospect and the only guy who has really missed is Clement. Also, I pointed out that Cahill wouldn’t be an ace which I am very proud of since I took a lot of heat for that. If it weren’t for callups I think that my top 10 2009 prediction list would have been really close. I’m not sure how I left out Montero considering that I have been giving him love for a long time but all in all that was interesting to go back and review.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on May 1, 2010 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Yikes
Go check out Redsoxfaithful’s predictions. That is one ugly top 30. ;)
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on May 1, 2010 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions
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