4/21 MiLB Discussion
by hybrid on Apr 21, 2010 12:41 PM EDT
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PrintSome notable starting pitchers going today...
AAA
Dice-K, Will Inman
AA
Tim Alderson, Stephen Strasburg, Jacob McGee
A+
Michael Main, Cody Scarpetta, Nick Barnese
A-
Jacob Odorizzi, Dexter Carter, Shelby Miller, Chad Jenkins, Roman Mendez, Brody Colvin, Arodys Vizcaino
Probably some names I missed but just skimmed quickly and listed who caught my eye. Stephen Strasburg's day is done already, 5IP 1H 0ER 1BB 6K - 6GO/3FO, looks like he was well rested after his shortened rain start last outing.
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Matt Thompson
5.0IP 4H 2R 2ER 1BB 4K 1HR GO/AO: 8-2.
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
UZR has been recalculated to adjust for weird park angles
Guess what? Jacoby Ellsbury isn’t that bad – he’s basically an average defender. Now -0.8 career in CF. Did anyone call this?
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/uzr-updates
Does this mean I no longer have to hear these ridiculous, smug, confirmation bias based pontifications on his routes and jumps…? Woo-hoo! Next time let’s all learn about the numbers rather than take the first logical explanation to explain the numbers and run with it (uh, uh… he must get bad reads and take bad routes – I’m sure I’ve seen him do that, now that I think about it!).
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Let me say this, too, point blank
Ellsbury doesn’t really get bad reads or take bad routes. He’s pretty average-ish at both – probably slightly below average. I watch him plenty and frankly, this was never the reports on him AT ALL. Not in the minors, not in high school. This all started with a negative UZR rating and people started repeating the mantra. Watch him again.
He doesn’t get particularly good jumps, no, but they’re not -20 runs bad… especially with his speed to make up for it. The overall package is average.
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Nobody ever really thought that he was -20 defensively.
It was clearly a statistical anomaly. The only people who got bent out of shape because of his UZR were people who didn’t understand how to properly use defensive metrics.
Anyone with that kind of knowledge would know that one season of UZR data is highly susceptible to being altered by things outside of the players control.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Apr 21, 2010 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions
This isn't about a number
http://oneifbylandsports.blogspot.com/2009/12/ellsbury-and-shallow-fly-balls.html
This blog post explains it better than I could. Changes to UZR aren’t validating Ellsbury here so I can’t see how you can say they are. It still has him as a severe negative last year and a positive before that, with both sample sizes being capable of variance. But the plus/minus data is scary with the breakdown of where exactly he was doing things wrong. And it’s especially troubling because his major weakness (shallow fly balls) was also a weakness in 2008. You can’t take UZR as gospel but I don’t see how the plus/minus data can be ignored. There are certainly legitimate concerns about his fielding.
Changes to UZR aren’t validating Ellsbury here so I can’t see how you can say they are.
-My position was he isn’t nearly as bad as he was being portrayed and that UZR was being fooled by Fenway’s strange dimensions.
-I’ve never claimed he was a good fielder – I have repeatedly said “average” or “average-ish.”
-The changes in UZR certainly do validate my position. Appelman specifically states they adjusted for quirky parks and the two biggest benefactors were Ellsbury and Bay. Conclusion? UZR was harsh on Red Sox OFers because of the strange dimensions of Fenway.
-I would be very curious how the stringers for Fielding Bible characterize flyballs/fliners/line drives. I’m of the opinion that Fenway and its relatively strange press box location and TV angles could be an issue with that as well.
-Although it appears Ellsbury had a poor defensive season in 2009, I would again remind you that the numbers don’t stabilize in that small a sample and as Satchel Price (who does excellent work for Beyond the Box Score) above stated:
one season of UZR data is highly susceptible to being altered by things outside of the players control.
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To expound on the final point
In a single season’s worth of chances, too many random things occur for it to be a worthwhile sample. Think along similar lines to BABIP. For example, lots of guys hit balls that count as negatives for UZR and Dewan that a player can’t get to. Over the three year sample the player eventually gets a grouping of easier balls to catch that makes up for it.
Career for Ellsbury we only have 236 games/1963 innings. Understand that even that isn’t a large enough sample to be ideal. 486 games would be three full seasons, or if you prefer 150 as a season then 450 games.
During this time Ellsbury has posted a UZR/150 of -0.8. He’s an eighth (1/8th) of a run below average so far.
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But you’re assuming combining 2008 and 2009 produces a valid sample size. It’s less than two years worth of data and they say wildly different things. Why is 2009 subject to variance but 2008 is not? How can you argue against people taking UZR as gospel and then reference the same thing to say he’s average while dismissing Plus/Minus?
No metric can say anything definitively about him but I reference the Plus/Minus data because it’s trying to identify specific trends in his fielding. It may not be completely accurate but it’s by no means illegitimate analysis and it’s not really saying anything that people haven’t seen Ellsbury do.
Think about it for a second. For an athlete with that much speed to be average or worse out there, he’s got to be doing something else wrong. The book is hardly closed on him.
But you’re assuming combining 2008 and 2009 produces a valid sample size.
No. I’m assuming it paints a more valid picture than just taking 2009. I’m also showing that the information we have more closely supports my position than yours.
Think about it for a second. For an athlete with that much speed to be average or worse out there, he’s got to be doing something else wrong.
This is, in fact, exactly what I’m saying. He doesn’t get great reads and jumps but his speed makes up for that so that he ends up near average overall. The position I’ve been refuting is that even with his great speed his instincts in the field are so poor that he’s one of the worst centerfielders in the game. Everyone is denying they said this now, but about a week ago I had ten people telling me I was crazy for thinking Ellsbury wasn’t atrocious in the field. There’s no real basis for that except for people misunderstanding UZR & other metrics(as well as inherent flaws in UZR & other metrics).
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Still has him at -16 last year.
Jacoby is still at -9 last year too. 25 year old plus CFers don’t get moved for 35 year old unless there is something there.
Tools Whore
Holy shit jason bay
If anything, Jason Bay has the much bigger argument to make against UZR. The new rating now has him as slightly above average instead of killing him in the field. Wonder how negotiations would’ve gone for him if he had that knowledge to work with.
As a Mets fan
I can assure you, Jason Bay is not an above average defender. You may have UZR, but I have my best sabermetric, EYES (not meant to be douchey haha)
You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220
only 68 pitches
I am feeling a call-up.
by richieabernathy on Apr 21, 2010 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I hope not
I have tickets for the end of may when harrisburg comes to akron. I was really hoping to see him pitch before he goes to the big leagues. I was hoping he would stay in AA until June 1 and then get called up to the MLB.
if he's still in AA by June 1
then I’d imagine he’d skip AAA, but he’s looking like he’s got AA under control, so a move to AAA might benefit him
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
Rizzo gave some vague answer like "I have my plan, but I won't tell you"
Sounds like they have no idea themself.
You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220
Jeanmar Gomez
5.2IP, 6H, 1R(earned), 1BB, 7K, 7:3 GO:AO, 97P – 53K
Matt Maloney
WIN, 5IP, 4H , 1R(earned), 7K, 76P – 48K, 2:5 GO:AO
Devarris Gordon
0-2 1RBI,1BB, 1K
Jake McGee
2,1IP, 2H, 1R(earned), 1BB, 3K, 43P – 30K, 2:1 GO:AO
Anyone know why he was taken out; his line doesn’t look bad.
leg injury
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I think you mean
For every Longoria, there’s at least 3-4 Gordons. And if anything I’m really being conservative in my estimate.
I’m still not giving up on him, for what it’s worth.
Of course, that could have something to do with me having him in a keeper league as well.
Ohhh me either,
but that’s mostly because I know as soon as I do give up on him and cut him, he will turn into a top 5 3B.
Um
He missed basically all of ST and didn’t get to rehab at all in the upper minors cause of injury to Getz. Asking him to come back and perform is a bit much at this point.
Smoak
Now has taken 16 walks to 6 strikeouts in 14 games this year. Just out of curiosity, does anyone know anyone else that has shown this kind of elite plate discipline in recent years?
I'd say not.
At least among legitimate prospects. That’s a pretty crazy outlier.
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That was the first guy to come to mind.
But with his K problems I seriously doubt it. Did you find a stretch, or are you just asking?
I looked up a few patient MLB hitter’s minor league careers… frankly, its incredibly hard to even find a guy with more BBs than Ks. Pujols is a possibility, but even he had roughly equal K and BB totals. You’d need a minor league database… I don’t have one. I think JD does, but even then I don’t know if you can easily find a split like that. Anyone know where to find day by day stuff for minor leaguers…?
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I mean... I'm sure its happened.
But I would wager its less than “quite a few.”
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yeah, i just threw out the names I thought of from last year
iirc, JJ Hardy, Joe Mauer, and JD Drew all had ridiculously good BB:K in the minors… and Hermida was up there as well. I’ll look some of these up later if nobody else has… might make for a good fanpost in its own right. or even something for John to look at.
a few guys that had better BB than SO in minors
Mauer in 2002 had a 61/42 bb/k rate in 476 PA in low-a
Hermida in 05 had a 111/89 rate in 507 PA in AA
hank Blalock in 2000 had a 62/53 in 590 PA in low-a
Pedroia in 05 did 58/43 in 538 PA over AA/AAA
Logan Morrison did 64/48 just last year in 355 PA over a+/AA
Pujols’ one season in the minors was pretty much a 1:1 … 46/47 BB/K in 2000
Weglarz must be in my memory from his torrid late May/June/July… in July he had a 22.3 BB% to 9.6 K%
Billy Butler
As a 22 year old, he played just 26 games in 3A and had a 14-7 s.o. to walk ratio
walk to strike out ratio
should have reversed the wording
And Smoak's year so far is...?
The question posed was how many players have shown the same kind of discipline Smoak has this year.
the op didn't clarify at all, bro. and since he wrote "in recent years"
i assume he means over a season. because there’s probably more than just one guy doing it right now. it happens all the time over the course of 3 weeks. so doesn’t it make sense that he’d be referring to a whole season of such plate discipline?
That would make a lot more sense.
It just seems like, since he said, “does anyone know anyone else that has shown this kind of elite plate discipline…”, that he’s implying what Smoak is doing is pretty special and wondering if it’s been matched recently. To me it seems pretty obvious that plenty of guys can do that over three weeks.
Others
Jason Heyward last year: 51 BB/ 51 K
Daric Barton every year in the minors
Desmond Jennings in AAA last year, 19 BB / 15 K
2 more BB for Barton today.
Make that 18BB:7K
Hitting .306/.493/.388
Heyward
he had 28 BB/19 K in 162 ABs at AA…as a 19 yr-old
Carlos Zambrano has been moved to the bullpen
http://twitter.com/d_a_cameron/status/12596489193
Yes, Carlos SILVA stays in the rotation.
They really need to clean house. This organization is not being run well right now.
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What's worse?
- Moving your opening day starter to the pen on April 21st?
OR
- Designating for assignment your opening day #3 hitter on April 19th?
#NLFAIL (Yeah, that’s right. I’m using twitter hash trending thingies. What of it?)
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Since his horrible start opening day
He has a 4 ERA and 12.5 K/9
He also has had a sub 4 ERA for 8 straight years as a starter
This is so ridiculous
Ackley
2-3 3B, BB
Hoping this is him shaking off that slump
Seriously.
His BABIP coming into today was .132. At some point the hits HAVE to start falling!
Is anyone actually concerned about Ackley?
I mean, seriously?
If I were a M’s fan it would be more fun to see him do well… but this guy is as close to zero risk as it comes. No need to start breaking down his BABIP. He’s going to rake. Its disturbing how much I’ve seen his slow start discussed around here.
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I know you're all going to say "oh, we're not actually concerned."
Seems like every M’s fan on here is concerned.
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I don't know
if I’d say I’m concerned, but it’s annoying to see him start off with such an awful stretch of bad luck. Keep in mind that the only homegrown regular position player the Mariners have developed and kept since Alex Rodriguez is Jose Lopez, and of our recent 1st-round draft picks, only Josh Fields is still in the organization. Mariners fans are not used to good luck.
Take a deep breath. Ackley is going to be awesome.
And soon.
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I'm breathing fine.
This is the first thread where I’ve even talked about Ackley.
Addressed to Mariners fans in general
What finally made me comment was you saying something about (generally consider you the most level headed regular on here)
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I agree regarding Ackley
but it sounds awfully similar to what people were saying about a gordon a few years ago.
Keep in mind...
that in Gordon’s last healthy season he was an above average hitter. He’s been snakebit on injuries, but his 109 WRC+ in 2008 was totally adequate, just not star level. The best college bat in the nation just has a different standard of what constitutes a “bust.” Chances are very good Ackley will become a solid major league hitter, and pretty good that he’ll become an all-star level talent.
David (Dallas): Jim, would you replace Davis with Smoak and Harden with Holland today?
Jim Callis (2:14 PM): Yes, yes I would.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/majors/espn-chat/2010/269866.html
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Interesting
I think the Rangers will wait until mid to late May, though.
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Baseball America suggesting that prospects are better than current major leaguers?
That never happens!
P.S. Want to know more about those guys we’re saying are better than current major leaguers? Buy a subscription to Baseball America today!
Wow
Did somebody from Baseball America kick your dog yesterday or something?
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Apr 22, 2010 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Its not that
Baseball America is a great resource, but htey frequently will say a minor leaguer is better the an MLBer or that they’d take Heyward over Justin Upton for the next 10 years. They always side on the side of the prospect (unless is redic).
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Jim Callis for GM!
You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220
Interesting to see how Dice-k does.
What do everyone here think of Aaron Bates, just curious.
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by bestbostonsports on Apr 21, 2010 5:19 PM EDT reply actions
Jose A. Ramirez
often compared to Vizcaino, off to a fast start at Low A Charleston
today – 7IP, 5H, 1ER, 1BB, 5K
season – 17.1IP, 3BB, 20K, 2.60 ERA, 1.16 WHIP
Anyone got info on Ramirez?
Stuff, command etc.
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by The Big Hurt on Apr 21, 2010 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Odorizzi
Tough 1st inning but settled down after, 4IP 3H 2ER 2BB 7K
On the season: 12IP 4H 2ER 5BB 19K
i'll admit that it was pretty weak
but dewey, why exactly do you view santana as worse?
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
in thole's defense
he’ll likely hit for a higher average and similar OBP. The power is where he gets crushed.
Its pretty simple...
Who would you rather have…
Joe Mauer without the power or R
JOSH THOLE > carlos santana
I am failing bigtime here... last attempt
Joe Mauer without the power > Ryan Doumit
JOSH THOLE > carlos santana
is it that simple?
thanks Dewey! you’ve got this prospecting stuff on lock-down
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
I keep saying this, he's a witch
If this was Salem in the 1690s, this whole Thole> Santana would have been ended a while ago.
You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220
ive actually visited salem
several years ago my buds and i went on a road trip through MASS. we even went to that corny witch museum with the witch mannequin’s and ‘show’ with funny voices., it was cheesy but funny. the best part was looking at the grave stones. in my opinion, the witches got screwed. if they floated, they were guilty, if they drowned, they were innocent. such b.s., lol.
JOSH THOLE > carlos santana
So I see you are familiar with the dark arts
But I also went to that same show, so we may be in the same boat
You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220
Joe Mauer without the power...
would be great. Unfortunately, it doesn’t describe anyone currently playing professional baseball. If you really think Josh Thole is that guy, you’re far, far too impressed by minor league batting average.
Batted .321 with the Mets in 17 games (53 ABs)
Small sample, but a taste of what Mets’ fans will get used to.
JOSH THOLE > carlos santana
.321 batting average but a .752 OPS
Not bad, but not particularly good either
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by OldProspects on Apr 21, 2010 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Jeremy reed hit .397 over 58ABs for the Ms in 2004
Willie Bloomquist hit .455 over 33 ABs in 2002.
This is a fun game.
Bloomquist?
You mean Tulowitzki Without Power?
by mrkupe on Apr 21, 2010 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
huh?
1. It wasn’t a response to you
2. What I said was pretty harmless, and didn’t warrant such a vehement response
3. I have no clue why you pulled another poster into this, let alone one who hasn’t even posted in this line of conversation
4 . . .okay. I’m just going to stop now.
Dewey Finn = Daaron without the funny schtick
This is a fun game.
Dewey Finn
Rain Man without brains or wit
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Apr 22, 2010 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions
obviously
they didn’t have Thole’s skillset. Nearly unmatched mastery or the strikezone.
JOSH THOLE > carlos santana
So
Which year did Thole have a BB to K rate better than the 70:36 Jeremy Reed posted in 2003?
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Apr 22, 2010 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Actually
What Mets fans are tasting are all the backup catchers they were forced to sign because Thole isn’t any good.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Apr 22, 2010 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions
waynecampbell08
rising up my list of favorite people. that string of comments was brilliant
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
Bucardo's a real sleeper
but, apparently, not may scouts feel the same way. He was unranked in BA and John gave him a passing mention on the Giants’ 2010 list. Guess the primary reason is that his fastball is a bit mediocre but, man, you can’t argue with the results.
Barnese
1st time he has been hit some this year, 5IP 10H 4ER 1BB 8K
On the season: 18.1IP 15H 6ER 3BB 18K
Tiny Tim Alderson
Mattrox #6 overall:
4.2 IP, 6 R (5 ER), 7 H, 1 K, 2 BB.
I still think he’ll turn it around, just not this year. I feel he could add velocity with that massive frame and become a really nice pitcher.
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
I don't
I don’t like banking on guys adding velocity and he just won’t be able to survive with what he has now. There’s a reason why he was dealt for a half of a season of Freddy Sanchez.
Based on Alderson's results since the trade...
they might know a thing or two.
daniel fields
who was surprisingly skipped past SS/Low-A, has 2 singles, 2 steals, and a walk for High-A Lakeland tonight
this is sexy
but someone else said he is just an injury replacement…. maybe if he keeps hitting, they’ll leave him there…?
well, there is a lot more to being appropriate for the level than just hitting
It’s not always (and perhaps not typically) about the numbers; a lot of it is about things that are hard to measure. But I assume that if they sent Fields there and not somebody else, then they thought he had at least some business being there and things that he could learn by being there.
In any event, if he looks like he’s worthy of being there, you can’t just demote him again. Young players can have fragile psyches . . .telling a guy he belongs somewhere and then telling him he doesn’t CAN have a big effect on him, especially if he’s holding his own.
make that Chase D'Arnaud, actually
Travis was 1-3
Locke vs Hand ended up being a nice matchup
Jeff Locke: 5 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 10 K
Brad Hand: 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 9 K
Shelby Miller
5 IP
1 BB
4 Hits
7 K’s
2 ER
That’s 21 K’s and 5 BB’s in 11 IP so far this season.
Albert Pujols is a god, and you my friend should be doing no less than graveling at his feet.
jerry sands: 2 for 3 with 2 Homers and a walk now hitting .412/.466/.843/1.309 with 4 homers 6 doubles and 2 Triples in the MWL in 56 PA… promote him already.
Andrew lambo… is he back???? 2 for 4 with a homer today.. hitting .354 .404 .563 .966 in 52 PA… 21 years old in AA.. stil really young..
Is Sands legiit?
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by The Big Hurt on Apr 22, 2010 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions
kinda yes, kinda no
He’s having a ridiculous hot streak and is a bit old for the Midwest League, but he does have some very real major league upside with the bat.
Bates: 1-2, 2 runs, one RBI. Three total bases. Now hitting .325.
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by bestbostonsports on Apr 22, 2010 12:09 AM EDT reply actions
Time to Pay Attention to Brayan Villarreal
Today: 6IP 3H 1ER (solo HR) 1BB 9K
Season: 15.1IP 10H 4ER 2BB 26K
Yep
I’m sure playing at 10PM Eastern everyday doesn’t help either. If he can start to walk with any frequency, he should shoot up lists.
Rangers fan says
look at his BaBIP, it won’t last (crosses fingers)
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Exactly
He’s not going to hit .375 for the year, drop him to a .300 average and his OPS is .769 with a SLG below .400. That to me is the real concern with him from the beginning, the power. He has 3 XBH’s so far, two of them triples. Hopefully the Angels take it slow with him and let him develop overall before moving him too quickly, but that plate discipline is awfully good so far. Though taking that many walks might get him in Scoscia’s dog house once he gets to the bigs.
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I wouldn't...
be concerned about the power just yet. He’s an 18 y/o in the Midwest League.
Sure
but power was a question mark for Trout since he was drafted. Some see him in the 10-15 HR range, some closer to 20 HR. That’s a big gap there. I’m not expecting big HR numbers from him this year or anything, but I expected more doubles power even in this small sample.
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for the moment
I’m cool with him learning how to hit before he learns how to hit it HARD. I’m not even sure he makes it to 15 HR, but he’s got all the attributes to be a quality gap-to-gap hitter.
+1
Yeah, if he has a good approach and continues to project as an excellent defensive CF he’s a very good prospect.
I’m the farthest thing from an Angels fan that exists, and I’m expecting Trout to annoy the hell out of me someday.
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