Edwin Jackson Crystal Ball
by John Sickels on Apr 15, 2010 2:01 PM EDT
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It's been a long time since I've done any Crystal Balls. For you new readers, the Crystal Ball is NOT a PREDICTION in the sense of me saying "this is how the guy will turn out.". The idea is to generate discussion about a player by presenting one possible outcome for his career, based on what we currently know about him. It is not just thrown together; I try to make them logical, based on the outcomes of players who were similar at the same stage of their career. Sometimes a CB represents a maximal outcome, sometimes it is more of a middle ground
Per reader request, here is a Crystal Ball for Edwin Jackson.
What do you guys think?
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don't know how
I would like to here the reasoning of those that picked “Too optimistic” for the outcome. Jackson is young (26), has had no arm trouble, has gotten progressively better each of the past three years, and has left the AL and is now in the most pitcher friendly division in baseball.
I had “just right” in the poll, but I could see him turning in a few 15 game win seasons for the Dbacks
His peripherals still indicate that he's just not that good
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
however
besides his 1st year w/ the angels, John isn’t predicting anything out of the realm of possibility with the grow he has shown. Also, even that is well with in grasp for edwin
EJax
13th in the AL last year in WHIP, ahead of numerous guys that are house hold names and others that receive considerable hype:
WHIP Leaders
1. Zack Greinke, KC – 1.07
2. Roy Halladay, TOR – 1.13
3. Felix Hernandez, SEA – 1.14
4. CC Sabathia, NYY – 1.15
5. Justin Verlander, DET – 1.18
6. Jarrod Washburn, DET – 1.19
6. Scott Baker, MIN – 1.19
6. Josh Beckett, BOS – 1.19
9. Gavin Floyd, CWS – 1.23
9. Jon Lester, BOS – 1.23
11. Jered Weaver, LAA – 1.24
12. Mark Buehrle, CWS – 1.25
13. Matt Garza, TB – 1.26
13. Edwin Jackson, DET – 1.26
15. John Lackey, LAA – 1.27
16. Scott Feldman, TEX – 1.28
16. John Danks, CWS – 1.28
16. Brett Anderson, OAK – 1.28
19. James Shields, TB – 1.32
20. Rick Porcello, DET – 1.34
20. Kevin Millwood, TEX – 1.34
Was in the top 25 for K’s too so he is capable of missing bats.
His #s will improve in the NL
John, for the record, just want to say I love the Crystal Balls
You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220
by Mets2k9 on Apr 15, 2010 2:19 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
John
I love this CB. Very interesting and insightful.
One of the reasons I requested EJ’s CB is that his career has been so variable; he’s a very difficult guy to make sense of given his: a) relatively late conversion to pitching, b) checkered performance record, c) raw stuff. I think your general evaluation of him here makes intuitive sense.
I agree with you in that I believe he will have a dominant year at some point, although I wouldn’t have the courage to predict when exactly that will occur. I see that you anticipate a significant jump in his K/BB ratio in the near future (2011), followed by a brief period of legitimate "Acedom".
One thing I wonder about is your sense that he will have a severe injury early in his thirties. Of course anything is possible, but I would think he would be less susceptible to injury than others considering his: a) late introduction to pitching, b) lack of arm abuse during early twenties, c) lack of injury history, and d) relatively sound delivery. Is there any particular reason why you sense a serious injury at a relatively early age? Too many sliders, perhaps?
Thanks for the great work!
injury
It’s sort of a feeling that his one outstanding season (2012 in the CB) takes a lot out of his arm. He’s not the same afterward, then his shoulder goes as a result. Plenty of precedent in baseball history for that…a decent pitcher having one awesome season that burns him out.
by John Sickels on Apr 15, 2010 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions
More Crystal Balls!
John, I’ve been BEGGING for a Jason Heyward crystal ball for a long time. I even attempted to email you about it. Not sure if you got it.
PLEASE! For all of us. Can you do Jason Heyward next?
by TheNaturalMevs on Apr 15, 2010 10:39 PM EDT reply actions
Yikes
Too soon much? Give him some data to go by in making an estimate. :-P
http://xkcd.com/290/ (caution: profane)
by Dan Strittmatter on Apr 16, 2010 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions
my thoughts exactly. how do you predict a whole career after 11 games of a rookie season?
I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.
In the past
He’s done guys like Jay Bruce the day they were called up to the Major Leagues.
by TheNaturalMevs on Apr 19, 2010 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Edwin Jackson = Jeff George
Tremendous talent/ability, no frickin clue on how to use it.
JOSH THOLE > carlos santana
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