13 Prospect Lists, 1 Final Ranking

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Mar 9, 2010 11:35 PM EST Comment 13 comments

I recently published two similar articles to this one at Beyond the Boxscore. After some discussion and thought, I have changed how I did the rankings. Basically, I wanted a good method for handling various prospect lists to come up with an overall composite ranking. I used the lists Joe Hamrahi at BaseballDailyDiget.com compiled and here is my methodology:

In total,13 rankings were used and I didn't use Dobber Rankings from the Baseball Daily Digest list as it contained some players that were actually rookies last season.
I averaged and counted the rankings from each list. Some list were only top 20, while others were top 101.
In any case that someone was not on a list, they were given a value using the following method: I found the number half way between the number of people on the list and 114 (number of players that made 2 lists). This value was given to all players that didn't make the list. For example, for everyone that didn't make a list of 50 prospects, they were given a value of 82 for that list.
I ranked all the players by the averaged ranking. I placed all players that only appear in one list in a honorable mention list. I was looking for players that several people acknowledge as good.
For the team data I took the average rank (86) of the lowest ranked player, Junichi Tazawa, to make the baseline value. I added 1 to his average rank (86+1) to give Junichi Tazawa some value. Then I subtracted each prospects averaged ranking from 87 to give each player a point value. The top ranked player, Jason Heyward got the most points while Junichi Tazawa got the least. Finally I added up the totals to get the overall rankings.

First in the organizational rankings and then the individual rankings:

Rank	Team	Number	Points
1	Rays	7	261
2	Rangers	4	236
3	Giants	4	168
4	Braves	4	158
5	Indians	6	146
6	Orioles	4	145
7	Marlins	3	140
8	Nationals	3	139
9	Red Sox	7	131
10	Athletics	3	124
11	Blue Jays	4	121
12	Reds	4	119
13	Mariners	3	113
14	Twins	5	104
15	Mets	4	103
16	Rockies	3	102
17	Royals	6	101
18	Cubs	6	99
19	Yankees	3	97
20	Pirates	3	96
21	Brewers	3	96
22	Phillies	2	87
23	Tigers	3	76
24	Padres	4	72
25	Dodgers	3	52
26	White Sox	3	52
27	Astros	3	50
28	Diamondbacks	2	42
29	Angels	4	40
30	Cardinals	1	21

Player Rankings:

Rank	Name, Pos, Team	Average Rank	Lists
1	Jason Heyward, of, Braves	1.4	13
2	Stephen Strasburg, rhp, Nationals	1.9	13
3	Mike Stanton, of, Marlins	5.9	13
4	Jesus Montero, c, Yankees	6.5	13
5	Buster Posey, c, Giants	6.8	13
6	Brian Matusz, lhp, Orioles	7.5	13
7	Neftali Feliz, rhp, Rangers	8.7	13
8	Carlos Santana, c, Indians	8.9	13
9	Desmond Jennings, of, Rays	10.5	12
10	Dustin Ackley, of/1b/2b, Mariners	12.0	13
11	Justin Smoak, 1b, Rangers	12.8	13
12	Pedro Alvarez, 3b, Pirates	12.8	13
13	Madison Bumgarner, lhp, Giants	14.5	13
14	Domonic Brown, of, Phillies	15.7	13
15	Alcides Escobar, ss, Brewers	22.9	12
16	Martin Perez, lhp, Rangers	25.4	11
17	Jeremy Hellickson, rhp, Rays	26.5	11
18	Kyle Drabek, rhp, Blue Jays	27.7	11
19	Chris Carter, of/1b, Athletics	30.3	11
20	Wade Davis, rhp, Rays	33.6	10
21	Michael Taylor, of, Athletics	33.9	10
22	Casey Kelly, rhp, Red Sox	34.5	10
23	Logan Morrison, 1b, Marlins	34.8	11
24	Brett Wallace, 3b/1b, Blue Jays	35.3	10
25	Aaron Hicks, of, Twins	35.8	10
26	Starlin Castro, ss, Cubs	36.3	9
27	Ryan Westmoreland, of, Red Sox	36.9	10
28	Aroldis Chapman, lhp, Reds	38.5	9
29	Christian Friedrich, lhp, Rockies	45.5	7
30	Jarrod Parker, rhp, Diamondbacks	47.8	7
31	Mike Montgomery, lhp, Royals	50.9	8
32	Fernando Martinez, of, Mets	51.1	9
33	Derek Norris, c, Nationals	51.2	7
34	Josh Bell, 3b, Orioles	53.5	8
35	Dee Gordon, ss, Dodgers	53.8	7
36	Jennry Mejia, rhp, Mets	54.2	7
37	Jhoulys Chacin, rhp, Rockies	54.2	10
38	Lonnie Chisenhall, 3b, Indians	56.6	6
39	Yonder Alonso, 1b, Reds	58.3	7
40	Freddie Freeman, 1b, Braves	58.9	6
41	Jason Castro, c, Astros	59.3	7
42	Tyler Matzek, lhp, Rockies	59.4	6
43	Julio Teheran, rhp, Braves	59.7	7
44	Michael Saunders, of, Mariners	60.1	7
45	Austin Jackson, of, Tigers	60.4	7
46	Aaron Crow, rhp, Royals	60.6	7
47	Jaff Decker, of, Padres	60.6	7
48	Matt Moore, lhp, Rays	60.7	6
49	Tim Beckham, ss, Rays	61.2	7
50	Casey Crosby, lhp, Tigers	61.7	6
51	Josh Vitters, 3b, Cubs	61.8	6
52	Brett Lawrie, 2b, Brewers	62.4	7
53	Jacob Turner, rhp, Tigers	63.0	6
54	Donavan Tate, of, Padres	64.3	5
55	Todd Frazier, of/2b/3b, Reds	64.5	6
56	Dan Hudson, rhp, White Sox	64.8	6
57	Tanner Scheppers, rhp, Rangers	65.0	6
58	Shelby Miller, rhp, Cardinals	65.7	5
59	Wilson Ramos, c, Twins	66.5	6
60	Mike Leake, rhp, Reds	68.1	7
61	Zach Britton, lhp, Orioles	68.1	6
62	Ike Davis, 1b, Mets	68.1	6
63	Mike Trout, of, Angels	68.4	6
64	Mike Moustakas, 3b, Royals	68.5	7
65	Drew Storen, rhp, Nationals	69.0	8
66	Arodys Vizcaino, rhp, Braves	70.5	4
67	Simon Castro, rhp, Padres	71.1	5
68	Tyler Flowers, c, White Sox	71.2	6
69	Wilmer Flores, ss, Mets	71.3	5
70	Phillippe Aumont, rhp, Phillies	71.5	5
71	Grant Green, ss, Athletics	72.7	6
72	Kyle Gibson, rhp, Twins	73.3	5
73	Jared Mitchell, of, White Sox	73.5	5
74	Chris Withrow, rhp, Dodgers	73.7	5
75	Jake Arrieta, rhp, Orioles	74.3	6
76	Ben Revere, OF, Twins	74.5	4
77	Hector Rondon , P , CLE	74.8	4
78	Jose Tabata, OF, Pirates	74.9	5
79	Hank Conger, c, Angels	75.4	5
80	Jiovanni Mier, ss, Astros	75.5	5
81	Reid Brignac, ss, Rays	75.7	4
82	Carlos Triunfel , SS , SEA	76.4	3
83	Jordan Lyles, rhp, Astros	76.4	4
84	Zack Wheeler, rhp, Giants	77.0	4
85	Nick Hagadone, lhp, Indians	77.0	5
86	Tony Sanchez, c, Pirates	77.3	6
87	Wil Myers, C, Royals	77.7	4
88	Lars Anderson, 1b, Red Sox	77.8	4
89	Eric Hosmer , 1B , KC	78.1	3
90	Brett Jackson, of, Cubs	78.1	5
91	Zach Stewart , P , TOR	78.3	4
92	Manny Banuelos , P , NYY	78.4	3
93	Josh Reddick, of, Red Sox	79.1	3
94	Alex White, rhp, Indians	79.1	3
95	Austin Romine, c, Yankees	79.3	3
96	James Darnell, 3b, Padres	79.7	3
97	Mat Gamel, 3b, Brewers	79.7	4
98	Jason Knapp, rhp, Indians	79.8	3
99	Matt Dominguez , 3B , FLA	79.8	2
100	Alex Colome, rhp, Rays	80.0	2
101	Hak Ju Lee , SS , CHC	80.0	2
102	Jose Iglesias , SS , BOS	80.5	4
103	Miguel Sano, ss/3b, Twins	80.7	3
104	Trevor Reckling, LHP, Angels	80.7	4
105	Jay Jackson, rhp, Cubs	81.7	3
106	Ethan Martin, RHP, Dodgers	82.0	3
107	Thomas Neal, of, Giants	82.0	3
108	Ryan Kalish, OF, Red Sox	83.0	3
109	Peter Bourjos, of, Angels	83.8	3
110	Bobby Borchering , 3B , ARZ	84.1	2
111	Andrew Cashner, rhp, Cubs	84.9	2
112	Noel Arguelles, lhp, Royals	85.3	2
113	Travis d'Arnaud, c, Blue Jays	85.4	2
114	Junichi Tazawa , P , BOS	86.0	2
HM	Mike Minor	83.1	1
HM	Anthony Gose	83.3	1
HM	Andy Oliver	83.4	1
HM	Tyson Gillies	83.6	1
HM	Anthony Rizzo	83.8	1
HM	Scott Sizemore	84.1	1
HM	Ruben Tejada , SS , NYM	84.2	1
HM	Daryl Jones	84.3	1
HM	Chris Marrero	84.6	1
HM	Michael Inoa, RHP, Athletics	84.8	1
HM	Matt Sweeney	85.0	1
HM	David Bromberg	85.2	1
HM	Nick Weglarz , OF , CLE	85.2	1
HM	Daniel Duffy , P , KC	85.2	1
HM	Michael Brantley	85.2	1
HM	Juan Francisco	85.4	1
HM	Jonathan Galvez , SS , SD	85.4	1
HM	Zach McAllister	85.6	1
HM	Andrew Mambo , OF , LAD	85.6	1
HM	Daniel Schlereth	85.8	1
HM	Chad James, lhp, Marlins	85.8	1
HM	Edinson Rincon , 3B , SD	85.9	1
HM	Craig Kimbrel	86.0	1
HM	Zeke Spruill	86.2	1
HM	Adam Moore, c, Mariners	86.2	1
HM	Wilin Rosario	86.2	1
HM	Brandon Allen	86.3	1
HM	Randall Delgado	86.3	1
HM	Jhan Marinez	86.4	1
HM	Max Stassi , C , OAK	86.5	1
HM	Chris Heisey	86.5	1
HM	Jordan Walden, RHP, Angels	86.6	1
HM	A.J. Pollock	86.8	1
HM	Tim Melville, RHP, Royals	86.9	1
HM	Jon Niese , P , NYM	86.9	1
HM	Alex Liddi	86.9	1
HM	Gabriel Noriega, SS, Mariners	87.0	1
HM	Grant Desme	87.0	1
HM	Fabio Martinez, RHP, Angels	87.0	1
HM	Eric Arnett	87.1	1
HM	Jurickson Profar	87.2	1
HM	Julio Morban , OF , SEA	87.2	1
HM	Jamie Garcia	87.4	1
HM	Michael Bowden , P , BOS	87.5	1
HM	Brent Morel	87.5	1
HM	Danny Espinosa, SS, Nationals	87.5	1

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Comments

good work

interesting to see not only that rays and rangers were tops, but by an order of magnitude. indeed, they have terrific systems.

by son.of.sourman on Mar 10, 2010 12:58 AM EST reply actions

seems like the rankings heavily favor top heavy systems to me

baseball rules.

by doublestix on Mar 10, 2010 1:47 AM EST up reply actions

If you base organizational rankings off Top 100 Prospect lists...

It goes without saying the list would be top heavy since every decent prospect who doesn’t make the national top 100 lists are valued as absolutely nothing.

Of course you could also make the argument that organizational rankings in general are usually top heavy considering guys who project as bit parts like average major leaguers, utility men, or a bit above replacement level types don’t get much credit but can still be extremely valuable to teams.

by oplaid on Mar 10, 2010 2:58 AM EST up reply actions

Agreed, doublestix.

by Alex Trebek on Mar 10, 2010 9:25 AM EST up reply actions

Who left Desmond Jennings off their list?

I assume it was one of the ones that only went to 20, although it’s still inexcusable in my eyes.

Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.

by marcello on Mar 10, 2010 2:07 PM EST reply actions

SethSpeaks

http://www.sethspeaks.net/

It was a top 20 list

- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Mar 10, 2010 2:25 PM EST up reply actions

Who the hell is Dobber Baseball?

And how did they rank Cameron Maybin in the top 10 and Eric Young Jr. in the top 20?

Not sure if I agree with including lists that are based on fantasy baseball and not actual value.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Mar 10, 2010 7:09 PM EST reply actions

Thanks for the hard work though

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Mar 10, 2010 7:11 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks for the feed back, I was just using the list from BaseballDailyDigest

I may have to be more selective next year.

- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Mar 10, 2010 9:25 PM EST up reply actions

Someone needs to...

convince Mike Stanton to change his name back to Giancarlo Cruz. Sounds much cooler and Mike Stanton makes me think of the Braves and Yankees reliever.

by Havok1517 on Mar 11, 2010 12:55 AM EST reply actions

Agreed!

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by JDSussman on Mar 11, 2010 12:12 PM EST up reply actions

Giancarlo Cruz is a much cooler sounding name, too.

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Mar 12, 2010 3:52 PM EST up reply actions

Thanx for the list, Jeff...

But I would exclude lists like the USA Today list, which is for Fantasy. Including fantasy lists skews the rankings somewhat. I’m not familiar w some of the rest, and some of those may be for fantasy also, so I’d check them. Also, when I do these ‘cumulative’ rankings myself I exclude players that didnt make at least half of the lists that go 100 deep. That way, you get rid of some of the ‘outliers’ that arguably dont belong.

by rhd on Mar 11, 2010 8:37 PM EST reply actions