Community Prospect #70
by gatling on Mar 3, 2010 6:15 PM EST
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With 18.3% of the vote(55.2% runoff), Mike Leake is elected Community Prospect #69.
1. Jason Heyward - 51%
2. Stephen Strasburg - 76%
3. Buster Posey - 20% (43% runoff)
4. Michael Stanton - 20% (54% runoff)
5. Jesus Montero - 20% (45% runoff)
6. Brian Matusz - 21%
7. Pedro Alvarez - 23%
8. Desmond Jennings - 29%
9. Carlos Santana -37% (50% runoff)
10. Neftali Feliz -37% (50% runoff)
11. Justin Smoak - 46%
12. Domonic Brown - 23% (59% runoff)
13. Madison Bumgarner - 30%
14. Martin Perez - 28%
15. Dustin Ackley - 31%
16. Chris Carter - 33.6%
17. Jeremy Hellickson - 29.4%
18. Michael Taylor - 36.9%
19. Alcides Escobar - 37.0%
20. Christian Friedrich - 29.0%(53.2% runoff)
21. Logan Morrison - 45.6%
22. Ryan Westmoreland - 24.7%
23. Aroldis Chapman - 32.0%
24. Wade Davis - 40.8%
25. Fernando Martinez - 30.5%
26. Aaron Hicks - 33.3%
27. Kyle Drabek - 34.0%
28. Lonnie Chisenhall - 24.5%
29. Jenrry Mejia - 18.8%(51.6% runoff)
30. Yonder Alonso - 25.5%
31. Matt Moore - 19.0%(70.7% runoff)
32. Brett Wallace - 24.3%
33. Dan Hudson - 20.2%
34. Freddie Freeman - 17.4%
35. Jhoulys Chacin - 21.2%
36. Casey Kelly - 27.8%
37. Casey Crosby - 29.8%
38. Starlin Castro - 27.5%
39. Brett Lawrie - 18.4% (42.9% runoff)
40. Derek Norris - 17.3% (42.9% runoff)
41. Tyler Flowers - 20.2%
42. Tyler Matzek -22.7%
43. Jacob Turner - 23.0%
44. Michael Montgomery - 30.8%
45. Dee Gordon - 22%
46. Julio Teheran - 19.4%
47. Grant Green - 24.4%
48. Hector Rondon - 20.9%
49. Josh Bell - 22.4%
50. Jaff Decker - 22.3%
51. Michael Saunders - 22.6%
52. Chris Withrow - 19.4%
53. Aaron Crow - 21.2%
54. Jason Castro - 18.8%
55. Tanner Scheppers - 23.2% (60.9% runoff)
56. Jordan Lyles - 23.2%(39.1% runoff)
57. Jake Arrieta - 28.0%
58. Todd Frazier - 23.1%
59. Jared Mitchell - 28.8%
60. Arodys Vizcaino - 21.1%
61. Zach Britton - 21.0%
62. Matt Dominguez - 19.7%
63. Simon Castro - 25.0%
64. Jarrod Parker - 24.6%
65. Zach Stewart - 18.5%
66. Tim Beckham - 22.2%
67. Alex Colome - 20.3%
68. Wil Myers - 23.1%
Players will get 1 round on the poll as a tester, if they fail to draw 5% they will then be removed and sit out up to 3 rounds.
Players off the poll(will sit out up to 3 rounds: James Darnell(#69-1.7%), Jason Knapp(#69-0%), Jay Jackson(#69-0%), Ethan Martin(#69-3.3%), Hank Conger(#68-0%), Randall Delgado(#68-0%), Nick Hagadone(#68-4.6%), Donovan Tate(#68-4.6%), Thomas Neal(#68-4.6%), Miguel Sano(#67-0%), Alex White(#67-0%), Kyle Gibson(#67-4.3%), Mike Trout(#66-0%), Shelby Miller(#66-2.8%), Wilson Ramos(#65-4.6%)
Tester pool: Josh Reddick, Eric Hosmer, Wilmer Font, Jemile Weeks, Adrian Cardenas, Tony Sanchez, Dan Duffy, Mat Gamel, Alex Liddi, Jose Igelsias, Travis D'Arnaud, Hak-Ju Lee
The candidates with previous round vote %:
Tim Melville
Jiovanni Mier 18.3%
Josh Vitters 15.0%
Michael Main
Brett Jackson 8.3%
Zach Wheeler
Ryan Kalish 10.0%
Mike Moustakas 6.7%
Ike Davis 13.3%
Over 130 AB/50 IP cutoff for eligibility
Please vote using the +1 system, not the rec system. Rec'd votes will not be counted in this poll, only actual posts with +1.
81 comments
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Comments
Vote with a +1 here for Reid Brignac
http://bullpenbanter.com
by gatling on Mar 3, 2010 6:19 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
+1
You guys win. You can keep your little marked-out piece of internet territory. Spend your days communicating via keyboard with people too ugly for the real world and too nerdy for anyone to care, anyway. Your piece of land is here. Do the rest of civilization a favor and stay within its limits. You bore me. Have fun with your nightly sobs and screams into your pillow over your inability to attract a good mate, Radiohead. ~The Hooligan
by Daniel Berlyn on Mar 3, 2010 8:24 PM EST up reply actions
+1
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Vote with a +1 here for Zach Wheeler
http://bullpenbanter.com
by gatling on Mar 3, 2010 6:24 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
+1
.280-.300 w/ very high OBPs and BB rates, 20/20 speed/power potential with the ability to be an average defender in CF or a plus corner OF.
www.bullpenbanter.com
while TZ isn't the end all be all
he seems to be doing consistently badly in the field. I’d take a 0 to 5 run corner OF at this point, but I bet he’ll be closer to -5 to 0 run LF/RF
Much too early to draw that conclusion
TZR didn’t like him in CF this year, but it did like him in LF at the same level. It didn’t like him in RF in 2008, but it liked him in CF at the same level in a similar sample size.
The data looks inconclusive to me. I look at TZR, but trust the scouting reports more at that level.
Yup
The scouting reports are pretty positive. He’s a very good technical fielder whose fielding was previously held in higher regard but who has filled in and gained muscle and consequently lost a step.
Many of the TZRs are SSS and overall it paints the picture of a guy who can play average or near average CF, IMO.
His worst showing in CF is a -9 this year at AA… but he was -8 at home (Hadlock Field) and -1 on the road.
Here’s what Hadlock Field looks like:
View Larger Map
Either way I don’t know how you can possibly look at those TZRs and come up with “he seems to be doing consistently badly in the field.” That’s a non sequitur. In CF he’s shown up as -2 (SSS), -6, +3, +1, -9 (Portland issues). In the corners he’s shown up as +1 (SSS), +0 (SSS), -2 (SSS), +4, +3, -7, +5, +5, -1. How is that “consistenly bad?”
Again, the scouting says plus defender in a corner – which stands to reason, b/c if you think he’s even a -5 CF (and I think he’s better than that) he should be ~+5 in a corner, with the caveat his arm is okay but not great in RF.
He can steal and take extra bases with his slightly above-average speed and smarts. He gets good jumps on fly balls, allowing him to play center field, though he fits better in right. His arm is average.
he plays a solid outfield.
http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9762
TheGoldenGreek33: Some scouts believe Kalish can stay in CF because he makes very good reads on fly balls. Would you agree?
Kevin Goldstein: I would.
http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9762
“He takes good routes to balls, he’s smart, he’s got a good arm. It’s really easy to play outfield with him. You know that he’s gonna get to a lot of balls, so it makes your job a lot easier if you’re playing next to him…it makes the outfield gel. He makes it a lot easier on guys that play next to him.”
http://projectprospect.com/article/2009/11/20/afl-they-said-it
With at least average tools across the board, on top of the ability to play center, he remains a pretty rare commodity
http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9402
Josh Reddick’s advancement has Kalish back in center field, where the scouting reports are solid.
http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9364
www.bullpenbanter.com
+1
What you fail to understand in your joyless myopia is that baseball is the key to life-- the Rosetta Stone, if you will. If you just understood baseball better all your other questions your, your... the, uh... the aliens, the conspiracies they would all, in their way be answered by the baseball gods.
+1 Donovan Tate
Tate is pretty well universally ranked higher than Castro in their own system, yet we flip-flopped them on our rankings.
Main - too soon
I still believe in his potential and think he could be a solid #2 starter, but he has to show he’s healthy and moving in that direction before he sniffs the top 100.
Freude, schoener Goetterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.
Ike
With all due respect to John, who in the all-questions-answered thread said he sees Davis as more of a 20-25 homer guy, I think Ike projects to hit more than that in his peak years. He hit 27 in 552 at bats last year counting AFL and international play (I know that those numbers are not like the minors-but for Ike the rate pretty much stayed the same). He hit 20 in 429 A+ and AA at-bats. That projects to 25 homers in 550 at-bats. FSL is a tough home run league. His rate in the Eastern League would project to about 35 homers over 550 at-bats.
That obviously isn’t his MLE now, but 35 homers seems doable in a peak season (although citifield may hold him back a tad). Project Prospect wrote “Potential to hit 35+ bombs a season.” At Binghamton, his home run to fly ball rate was 20% (albeit minor league batted ball info isn’t necessarily trustworthy), and his spray chart in the EL doesn’t show any cheapies. I just don’t see 20-25 as his peak.
Ike also had a walk rate of 11.7% about, and a k rate of 26% combining both levels. That k rate isn’t awful given the patience and power.
platoon split
Small sample, but in AA he went .269/.347/.433 against lefties. After an abysmal start. Smoak against lefties in AA? .196/.268/.314. Smoak is better, and these are all tiny samples, but Davis is the one that you get all the negative commentary on, can’t hit lefties, strikes out too much, oh, he’s just a first baseman. But he looks to me like he has a good shot of being solidly above-replacement even at first, a guy that could rank 11-15 among 1Bs in his peak years.
Seriously
http://newyork.mets.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=7178459
I’d say 35 HR isn’t only doable, it’s a pretty good bet.
bet
I was hedging my bet. :) I was a little surprised John thought he’d only be a 20-25 a year guy. BA gave his power a 65. Not sure where that projects, but same as they gave Vitters and Brett jackson, I believe.
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