Top 140 Prospects

by rglass44 on Mar 3, 2010 5:49 PM EST

I've taken PP, BP, BA, and KLAW's lists and combined them with John's grades to come up with a rough sketch of the "consensus" among some of the web's most popular prospect guru's. Here's the list and how they rank:

VRank	Name	POS	Team	Age	Grade	BA	KLAW	PP	BP
1	Jason Heyward	OF	ATL	20	A	1	1	1	2
2	Stephen Strasburg	RHP	WAS	21	A	2	2	4	1
3	Jesus Montero	C	NYY	20	A	4	10	3	4
3	Desmond Jennings	OF	TAM	23	A	6	6	2	7
5	Carlos Santana	C	CLE	24	A	10	3	5	8
6	Buster Posey	C	SF	23	A	7	4	8	9
7	Mike Stanton	OF	FLA	20	A-	3	5	15	5
8	Neftali Feliz	RHP	TEX	21	A	9	13	14	3
9	Brian Matusz	LHP	BAL	23	A	5	11	7	18
10	Dustin Ackley	OF-2B	SEA	22	A-	11	8	6	12
11	Justin Smoak	1B	TEX	23	A-	13	9	9	17
12	Pedro Alvarez	3B	PIT	23	A	8	35	12	6
13	Martin Perez	LHP	TEX	19	A-	17	7	26	15
14	Aroldis Chapman	LHP	CIN	22	A-	22	16	32	10
15	Madison Bumgarner	LHP	SF	20	A-	14	28	23	21
16	Domonic Brown	OF	PHI	22	B+	15	14	24	24
17	Chris Carter	1B-OF	OAK	23	A-	28	33	25	11
18	Michael Taylor	OF	OAK	24	B+	29	24	13	20
19	Ryan Westmoreland	OF	BOS	19	B+	21	32	27	14
20	Alcides Escobar	SS	MIL	23	B+	12	54	11	19
21	Wade Davis	RHP	TAM	24	A-	34	15	28	34
22	Starlin Castro	SS	CHC	20	B+	16	12	36	37
23	Casey Kelly	RHP	BOS	20	B+	24	18	35	30
24	Logan Morrison	1B	FLA	22	B+	20	21	19	50
25	Jeremy Hellickson	RHP	TAM	23	A-	18	17	77	13
26	Aaron Hicks	OF	MIN	20	B+	19	19	50	26
27	Brett Wallace	1B-3B	TOR	23	B+	27	20	29	44
28	Tyler Matzek	LHP	COL	19	B+	23	22	53	23
29	Derek Norris	C	WAS	21	B+	38	31	31	28
30	Lonnie Chisenhall	3B	CLE	21	B+	31	26	41	43
31	Kyle Drabek	RHP	TOR	22	B+	25	40	72	16
32	Josh Bell	3B	BAL	23	B	37	61	16	39
33	Christian Friedrich	LHP	COL	22	B+	33	36	88	22
34	Jarrod Parker	RHP	ARI	21	B-	36	37	66	52
35	Mike Montgomery	LHP	KC	20	B+	39	75	52	36
36	Jacob Turner	RHP	DET	19	B+	26	80	74	25
37	Todd Frazier	INF-OF	CIN	24	B+	43	66	33	67
38	Jaff Decker	OF	SD	20	B	82	27	18	74
39	Dee Gordon	SS	LAD	21	B+	46	39		27
39	Zach Britton	LHP	BAL	22	B+	63	25	51	73
41	Freddie Freeman	1B	ATL	20	B+	32	67	73	51
42	Casey Crosby	LHP	DET	21	B+	47	45		32
43	Jenrry Mejia	RHP	NYM	20	B+	56	23	100	48
44	Josh Vitters	3B	CHC	20	B+	70	30		31
45	Mike Leake	RHP	CIN	22	B	72	72	20	59
46	Wilson Ramos	C	MIN	22	B-	58	42	59	65
47	Shelby Miller	RHP	STL	19	B	50	38		38
48	Chris Withrow	RHP	LAD	21	B+	48	83	65	40
49	Yonder Alonso	1B	CIN	23	B+	45	76	17
50	Fernando Martinez	OF	NYM	21	B+	77	73	10	80
51	Jhoulys Chacin	RHP	COL	22	B+	71	48	21
51	Mike Trout	OF	LAA	19	B+	85	49	54	53
53	Julio Teheran	RHP	ATL	19	B	51	63	86	33
54	Brett Lawrie	2B	MIL	20	B+	59	47	40	99
55	Michael Saunders	OF	SEA	23	B-	30	74	70	62
56	Tanner Scheppers	RHP	TEX	23	B+	42	78	61	68
57	Simon Castro	RHP	SD	22	B+	57	46		47
58	Dan Hudson	RHP	CHW	23	B+	66		30	55
59	Jason Castro	C	HOU	22	B+	41	65	47	100
60	Matt Moore	LHP	TAM	20	B+	35	81		41
61	Tim Beckham	SS	TAM	20	B-	67	29		56
62	Donavan Tate	OF	SD	19	B+	53		81	29
63	Arodys Vizcaino	RHP	ATL	19	B	69	43		45
64	Jared Mitchell	OF	CHW	21	B	55	95	55	61
65	Tyler Flowers	C	CHW	24	B	60	58	78	72
66	Ike Davis	1B	NYM	23	B	62	64	57	87
67	James Darnell	3B	SD	23	B	90		22	64
68	Tony Sanchez	C	PIT	21	B	79	82	42	75
69	Aaron Crow	RHP	KC	23	B	40	87		54
70	Austin Jackson	OF	DET	23	B	76	70	98	49
71	Hank Conger	C	LAA	22	B+	84	52	87	81
72	Hector Rondon	RHP	CLE	22	B		51	44
73	Wilmer Flores	SS	NYM	18	B+	88	41		84
73	Grant Green	SS	OAK	22	B+	52	93	82	86
75	Jake Arrieta	RHP	BAL	24	B+	99	90	58	70
76	Josh Reddick	OF	BOS	23	B	75		76	58
77	Alexander Colome	RHP	TAM	21	B	68			42
78	Matt Dominguez	3B	FLA	20	B		62	49
79	Zack Wheeler	RHP	SF	20	B	49	84	97	88
80	Kyle Gibson	RHP	MIN	25	B-	61	89		71
81	Reid Brignac	SS	TAM	24	B-	54			69
82	Scott Sizemore	2B	DET	25	B			67	57
83	Chris Heisey	OF	CIN	25	B		88	39
83	Mike Moustakas	3B	KC	21	B	80	69		79
83	Jiovanni Mier	SS	HOU	19	B	73	94	64	97
86	Thomas Neal	OF	SF	22	B	96		37
87	Miguel Sano	SS	MIN	16	C+	94	97		35
88	Alex Avila	C	DET	23	B			34
88	Nick Hagadone	LHP	CLE	24	B	44	100		91
90	Drew Storen	RHP	WAS	22	B+	92	92		60
91	Eric Hosmer	1B	KC	20	B-		34
92	Jose Iglesias	SS	BOS	20	C+		91	38
93	Anthony Rizzo	1B	BOS	20	B-		53	84
94	Wil Myers	C	KC	19	B			56	83
95	Jose Tabata	OF	PIT	21	B		57	93	90
96	Alex White	RHP	CLE	21	B	65			77
96	Ryan Kalish	OF	BOS	22	B		86	80	76
98	Travis d'Arnaud	C	TOR	21	B	81	99	62
99	Jordan Lyles	RHP	HOU	19	B+	91	60
100	Nick Weglarz	OF	CLE	22	B-			43
100	Lars Anderson	1B	BOS	22	B-	87	56
102	Carlos Triunfel	SS-3B	SEA	20	B-		44
103	Ben Revere	OF	MIN	21	B				46
104	Logan Forsythe	3B	SD	23	B-			45
104	Jason Knapp	RHP	CLE	19	B-	64			82
106	Zach Stewart	RHP	TOR	23	B+		55
107	Brandon Snyder	1B	BAL	23	B-			46
108	Jon Niese	LHP	NYM	23	B			48
108	Jay Jackson	RHP	CHC	22	B	98	50
110	Trevor Reckling	LHP	LAA	20	B+		77		92
111	Matt Sweeney	1B	TAM	22	C+		68	83
112	Daryl Jones	OF	STL	22	B-		59
113	Carlos Carrasco	RHP	CLE	23	B-			60
114	Hak-Ju Lee	SS	CHC	19	B				63
115	Michael Brantley	OF	CLE	22	B-		71	94
116	Danny Espinosa	SS	WAS	23	B			68	101
117	Brett Jackson	OF	CHC	21	B	74			96
118	Phillippe Aumont	RHP	PHI	21	B-	93			78
119	Jonathan Lucroy	C	MIL	24	B			71
120	Ian Desmond	SS	WAS	24	C+			63
121	Michael Ynoa	RHP	OAK	18	C+				66
122	Andrew Cashner	RHP	CHC	23	B	95	79
123	Chase D'arnaud	INF	PIT	23	C+			69
124	Chad James	LHP	FLA	19	B	78
125	Ryan Strieby	1B-OF	DET	24	B-			79
126	Max Ramirez	C	TEX	25	C+			75
127	Brandon Allen	1B	ARI	24	B-				85
128	Randall Delgado	RHP	ATL	20	B		85
129	Ivan De Jesus	SS	LAD	22	B-			85
130	Austin Romine	C	NYY	21	B	86
131	Jordan Walden	RHP	LAA	22	B-				89
132	Mat Gamel	3B	MIL	24	B-	89
132	Eric Young Jr.	2B/CF	COL	24	B-			89
134	Jemile Weeks	2B	OAK	23	B-			90
135	Adam Moore	C	SEA	25	C+	83
136	Chris Marrero	1B	WAS	21	B-			91
137	Tim Melville	RHP	KC	20	B				93
138	Reese Havens	SS	NYM	23	B-			92
139	Gabriel Noriega	SS	SEA	19	B-				94
140	Fabio Martinez	RHP	LAA	20	B-				95
140	Junichi Tazawa	RHP	BOS	23	B-		98	96

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Comments

Good list

It’s always interesting to see everyone’s list side-by-side like that. Kinda make’s you scratch your head about some of Project Prospect’s omissions, such as Crosby, Gordon, Moore, etc., plus them considering Iglesias, Niese, and Heisey as top 50 prospects.

But your list contains a good mix of BA, BP, and KLaw.

by OraNge DusTT on Mar 3, 2010 6:20 PM EST reply actions

I'm not going to say Niese is a top 50 prospect, but he has been very underrated by most people.

Every season in the minors he’s had has been at the very least good. He’s always had good strikeout and walk rates, he doesn’t give up many homers and gets ground balls. And of course he’s left handed. Niese may not have star potential, but he’s a pretty safe bet to be a solid major league starter for a few years.

by Evan_S on Mar 4, 2010 3:16 AM EST up reply actions

Project Prospect

They like more polished pitchers, and in general made a point of having fewer pitchers on their list in general than the other lists. So a lot of low level guys with the great stuff tag got left off (with Moore and Crosby the issue was mostly control, from the comments). I agree that Niese is a pretty safe bet to be a solid major league starter.

by wobatus on Mar 4, 2010 4:42 AM EST up reply actions

Very similar to Friedrich actually

Niese’s overall repertoire and ceiling right now is actually very similar to Friedrich. I think Friedrich gets more attention mostly because he was a high draft pick.

But both guys are 6’4" 215 pound lefties with a plus CB, a fastball sitting 88-92, and a solid change. Friedrich also has a potential plus slider, but Niese has added a very good cutter. Friedrich might have a tick better peak velocity, and a few more swings and misses, but Niese has maintained better groundball rates, as is ready for MLB now.

by acerimusdux on Mar 8, 2010 5:37 PM EST up reply actions

interesting

by daveh33 on Mar 3, 2010 6:53 PM EST reply actions

Is it cut off? Looks like there is more to the list than that. I’d suggest making a google doc and just posting the link if there is information being cut out.

by jfish26101 on Mar 3, 2010 8:23 PM EST reply actions

what did you do if a player was left unranked by a publication?

Like Dee Gordan with PP (first one I saw).

Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson

by gore51 on Mar 3, 2010 8:59 PM EST reply actions

An explanation on how I did it.

I made a “value” for each list (essentially 100-prospect rank on the list), then I got the avg. value for each grade. I summed the list values with half the grade value. That gave a “total value.” That’s it.

Pretty basic, but it was a quick, easy way to address that issue as opposed to a straight average.

by rglass44 on Mar 4, 2010 9:32 AM EST up reply actions

Sickels grade

How did you go about assigning a value to Johns grade since it was alphabetical and the other resources where numerical.

by rupertoooo on Mar 4, 2010 11:16 AM EST up reply actions

I took the average of each grade from each source.

So I lumped all the As, Bs, etc. together, then I found the avg. ranking for each grade on each list and averaged those.

An easy example:

If there were 10 As, and they had the following average ranking by source: BA 6, BP 10, PP 8, KLAW 7. So I’d take the mean of those to get 7.75 (I think). Then (like the lists) I’d subtract from 100. So every A prospect would have a “grade value” of 92.25.

Make sense?

by rglass44 on Mar 4, 2010 11:49 PM EST up reply actions

PP

Hellickson 77
Drabek 72
Friedrich 88
Mejia 100

what a joke

by nyy601 on Mar 4, 2010 3:08 PM EST reply actions

Not really

They purposefully limited pitchers because of the fact that more hitters survive to become major league regulars than starters.

Go look at, say, BA’s list of top prospects in prior years. In 1995 They had Scott Ruffcorn 23, James Baldwin 25 (he was 8 in 1994), Paul Wilson #16 (#2 in 1996), Jimmy Haynes #45. Sure, maybe it is unfair. You don’t know which pitcher may get injured or lose the plate (a la Ankiel). I think PP is a little too down on hellickson’s stuff. As Met fan I love Mejia, but he hasn’t even conquered AA yet.

I might disagree, actually, i do disagree with the placements 9although I am not as high on Drabek and friedrich as some others), but i don’t think it is a joke.

by wobatus on Mar 5, 2010 2:23 PM EST up reply actions

Outliers

Since most of the lists are somewhat similar, I take the most interest in the outliers, since they give a better indicator as to whose system works better than the others.

Overall, it seems like John’s system is closest to the consensus, followed by BA’s, while Project Prospect is the furthest off. Still, nothing too wacky when you look at these overall.

Sickels:
Highest outlier: Jarrod Parker (B-, but #34 overall)
Lowest outlier: Trevor Reckling (B+, but 110 overall)

BA:
Highest outlier: Chad James (ranked #78, not ranked by anyone else); Nick Hagadone is another
Lowest outlier: Hector Rondon isn’t a true outlier, but he was ranked #73 but left off by BA

BP:
Highest outlier: Ben Revere (#46 by BP, unranked by others); Miguel Sano is also way out there (#35 by BP, #87 overall)
Lowest outlier: Yonder Alonso (unranked by BP, #49 overall)

Keith Law:
Highest outlier: Carlos Triunfel (#44 by KLaw, unranked by others)
Lowest outlier: Dan Hudson (unranked by KLaw, #58 overall)

Project Prospect:
Highest outlier: Alex Avila (ranked #34, not ranked by anyone else)
Lowest outlier: Dee Gordon (not on list, consensus #39)

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"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Mar 4, 2010 6:12 PM EST reply actions