Baseball Prospectus Top 101
by rupertoooo on Mar 3, 2010 1:31 PM EST
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I thought I would share Baseball Prospectus Top 101. I am not sure if this was a free viewing on their site so I am going to post it.
1. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Nationals
2. Jason Heyward, OF, Braves
3. Neftali Feliz, RHP, Rangers
4. Jesus Montero, C, Yankees
5. Mike Stanton, OF, Marlins
6. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pirates
7. Desmond Jennings, OF, Rays
8. Carlos Santana, C, Indians
9. Buster Posey, C, Giants
10. Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Reds
11. Chris Carter, 1B, Athletics
12. Dustin Ackley, OF/2B, Mariners
13. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Rays
14. Ryan Westmoreland, OF, Red Sox
15. Martin Perez, LHP, Rangers
16. Kyle Drabek, RHP, Blue Jays
17. Justin Smoak, 1B, Rangers
18. Brian Matusz, LHP, Orioles
19. Alcides Escobar, SS, Brewers
20. Michael Taylor, OF, Athletics
21. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Giants
22. Christian Friedrich, LHP, Rockies
23. Tyler Matzek, LHP, Rockies
24. Domonic Brown, OF, Phillies
25. Jacob Turner, RHP, Tigers
26. Aaron Hicks, of, Twins
27. Dee Gordon, SS, Dodgers
28. Derek Norris, C, Nationals
29. Donovan Tate, OF, Padres
30. Casey Kelly, RHP, Red Sox
31. Josh Vitters, 3B, Cubs
32. Casey Crosby, LHP, Tigers
33. Julio Teheran, RHP, Braves
34. Wade Davis, RHP, Rays
35. Miguel Sano, SS, Twins
36. Mike Montgomery, LHP, Royals
37. Starlin Castro, SS, Cubs
38. Shelby Miller, RHP, Cardinals
39. Josh Bell, 3B, Orioles
40. Chris Withrow, RHP, Dodgers
41. Matt Moore, LHP, Rays
42. Alex Colome, LHP, Rays
43. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Indians
44. Brett Wallace, 1B, Blue Jays
45. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Braves
46. Ben Revere, OF, Twins
47. Simon Castro, RHP, Padres
48. Jennry Mejia, RHP, Mets
49. Austin Jackson, of, Tigers
50. Logan Morrison, 1B, Marlins
51. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Braves
52. Jarrod Parker, RHP, Diamondbacks
53. Mike Trout, OF, Angels
54. Aaron Crow, RHP, Royals
55. Dan Hudson, RHP, White Sox
56. Tim Beckham, SS, Rays
57. Scott Sizemore, 2B, Tigers
58. Josh Reddick, OF, Red Sox
59. Mike Leake, RHP, Reds
60. Drew Storen, RHP, Nationals
61. Jared Mitchell, OF, White Sox
62. Michael Saunders, OF, Mariners
63. Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Cubs
64. James Darnell, 3B, Padres
65. Wilson Ramos, C, Twins
66. Michael Inoa, RHP, Athletics
67. Todd Frazier, 2B, Reds
68. Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Rangers
69. Reid Brignac, SS, Rays
70. Jake Arrieta, RHP, Orioles
71. Kyle Gibson, RHP, Twins
72. Tyler Flowers, C, White Sox
73. Zach Britton, RHP, Orioles
74. Jaff Decker, OF, Padres
75. Tony Sanchez, C, Pirates
76. Ryan Kalish, OF, Red Sox
77. Alex White, RHP, Indians
78. Phillippe Aumount, RHP, Phillies
79. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Royals
80. Fernando Martinez, OF, Mets
81. Hank Conger, C, Angels
82. Jason Knapp, RHP, Indians
83. Wil Myers, C, Royals
84. Wilmer Flores, SS, Mets
85. Brandon Allen, 1B, Diamondbacks
86. Grant Green, SS, Athletics
87. Ike Davis, 1B, Mets
88. Zach Wheeler, RHP, Giants
89. Jordan Walden, RHP, Angels
90. Jose Tabata, OF, Pirates
91. Nick Hagadone, LHP, Indians
92. Trevor Reckling, LHP, Angels
93. Tim Melville, RHP, Royals
94. Gabriel Noriega, SS, Mariners
95. Fabio Martinez, RHP, Angels
96. Brett Jackson, OF, Cubs
97. Jio Mier, SS, Astros
98. Ethan Martin, RHP, Dodgers
99. Brett Lawrie, 2B, Brewers
100. Jason Castro, C, Astros
101. Danny Espinosa, SS, Nationals
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somehow
don’t dislike this list as much as i thought i would. lol At Sano #35.
looks like they flipped Lawrie and Sizemore…
I submitted a fairly lengthy question regarding Vitters at 31!? and Dominguez out of the top 101 in the chat when I saw this list. I just don’t see how that can be justified simply because Vitters is the better pure hitter.
And yeah, dave, the rankings of Sano and Ynoa were to be expected.
Vitters At 31
Just where I’d put him.
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Yonder Alonso unranked.....
boggles my mind. Last year he is a 5 star prospect. First half of this year he beats up on the Florida State League pretty good, then breaks his hamate bone his second week in AA. Now he isn’t a Top 101 prospect?
Yeah, that one strikes me as odd too.
How does Brandon Allen make the list but not Alonso? Even if you weren’t high on Alonso, I can’t see a reason to put Allen ahead of him.
http://bullpenbanter.com
I don't mind Alonso missing the list
But I agree that Allen shouldn’t be ahead of him. I also think Freeman and Morrison are too high considering where Alonso falls.
I like Chapman as much as the next guy
But ten seems excessive until he pitches pro ball.
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Unless that next guy is KG
Seriously though, I agree with you on Chapman. I like him enough, but putting him higher than the 20-30 range seems premature to me. He’s not a finished product, he needs a changeup and to improve his control to be a starter in the majors. I know he looks like he could be a shut down closer with the 2 pitches he features, but that’s not enough of a floor for a top 10 ranking in my book.
http://bullpenbanter.com
you could make the same argument
for Strasburg at #1, fwiw.
personally, i dont mind Chapman at #10. i would have him ~20, but the talent pool in that range is close enough you could stack them many ways and i’d be ok.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Mar 3, 2010 4:28 PM EST up reply actions
I know the last 20-25 spots on a top 100(or 101 in this case)
is where you see the most variance usually, there seems to be a few names who just don’t belong. Phillippe Aumont is still projection at this point and it’s not a given he can be more than a bullpen arm. How does he end up 20 spots ahead of Ethan Martin? Brandon Allen is a head scratcher when Yonder Alonso isn’t on the list. Jordan Walden making the list at all is a shock, but ranking ahead of guys like Hagadone, Melville, and Martin strikes me as very odd.
Oh, and Brian Matusz at #18? I just don’t get that one. How does Lawrie rank below Tabata? Even if they both play a COF spot, Lawrie’s bat is so much better than Tabata’s…I just don’t get it.
All in all though, it’s a quality list from KG. I love the ranking of Montero, Hellickson, Escobar, Montgomery, Reddick and Darnell. I don’t see Austin Jackson as a top 100 guy, let alone top 50 but it doesn’t really surprise me from KG. Same with the Chapman, Sano, and Ynoa rankings. Not ones I agree with, but I know going in he’ll have the IFA’s much too high for my taste so it is what it is.
http://bullpenbanter.com
Matusz @ 18...
Is really strange to me as well. I’m not the biggest Matusz fan in the world but he’s still safely within my top 10.
Dee Gordon at 27
Is higher than I’ve seen anywhere else, but I’m sure not going to complain. I’m also glad to see Withrow at 40, and finally a list with 3 Dodgers on it with E. Martin at 98.
Kick ass.
Madison Bumgarner's velocity is NOT back
@keithlaw Bumgarner was 87-88 in his second inning today.
http://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/9941604608
Extremely early in spring, undoubtedly. I just hope people aren’t still completely writing this off as a non issue. Its clearly an issue.
www.bullpenbanter.com
Yeah, I'm pretty disappointed...
been following MadBum for a while, hoped for the best, and I still am trying to stay optimistic with him, given it’s early in spring and the tragic death of his half-sister, but it’s not good, no matter how you slice it.
Given I was an out-spoken advocate of MadBum, I’ll be the first to admit I missed if he stays in the high-80s all spring.
I’m beginning to wonder if Adam wasn’t right, and that an erroneous report of mid-90s stuff over inflated MadBum’s status, and maybe he never was working in the mid-90s in the first place, so the velocity drop is less dramatic.
Poster formerly known as artie
i'd have a hard time putting him in top 50
and probably much lower. the ceiling just isn’t there when your at 88.
baseball rules.
Pitch FX confirms.
PITCHf/x had Bumgarner at 88.9 mph avg on 11 FB in his first inn and 88.1 on 8 FB in his 2nd inn, vs ’09 MLB avg of 89.2
http://twitter.com/fastballs/status/9943470026
www.bullpenbanter.com
I made a pitch flight graph for him
I was not impressed at all. FWIW
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You talking about this one?
http://bullpenbanter.com/index.php/rankings2/1-2010writeups/47-2010-24mbspect
I agree. The problems go beyond just velocity. Secondary stuff is not good.
www.bullpenbanter.com
by alskor on Mar 3, 2010 7:01 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Actually no
But it was so ugly (him, not my work hehe) that I didn’t want to post it.
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I saw Bum pitch late last year
against the Padres. From the stretch he looks exactly like Brian Fuentes.
Whatever radar the TV station was getting their reads from had him sitting more in the 86-88 range than the 88-90 range.
Secondary stuff didn’t look all that sharp. Was not impressed at all.
by walnut falcons on Mar 3, 2010 5:34 PM EST up reply actions
I hope no one's surprised
I think it’s best to remain skeptical that a guy can regain velocity until he actually accomplishes it.
I agree
This list is pretty good. People need to consider it a “list of Kevin Goldstein’s favorite prospects” instead of worrying about where they think certain guys should rank.
www.bullpenbanter.com
Definitely
It’s a hundred guys out of how many thousands in the minors? The difference between even a couple dozen spots just isn’t that significant.
Not to pick on you
Because I know this is a common comment, but frankly, it’s pretty ridiculous. The difference between an outstanding professional athlete and a good and a decent one is tiny, but if you care about baseball or other sports, it matters a lot. On the one hand, there are tens of millions of people in the US alone who play baseball, only a few tens of thousands come even close to making the major leagues. Of those, barely a thousand or two will play in the majors in any given season. Which is still a lot.
Except here’s the thing; only about 5-600 will actually impact any team significantly. From the entire minor leagues, only about 100 of them will impact any team (i.e. have a starting job) for more than a year or so. A difference of ten or twenty spots is the difference between being a starter or a reserve, a star or a decent player.
What I think you’re trying to pick up on is that these lists are all guesses. In other words, you can think of the #1 prospect as being a 65% chance of being an impact player, whereas the #80 player has a 20% chance. It is reasonable to note that all prospect lists necessarily try to predict the future and are necessarily flawed for just that reason. Though we are dealing with probabilities, these lists only have value if we believe that the list-makers are legitimately trying to make a guess of who will succeed, and who will fail. In other words, though we shouldn’t take the lists too seriously, a gap of 20 or 30 or 50 slots does make a significant difference in how the evaluator judges the prospects and is predicting them to succeed.
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it matters a lot if the difference of a couple dozen spots is between putting a player at #5 or at #30.
it does not matter a lot if it is #50 and #75.
I'll agree that it matters less
In general, I think these rankings don’t matter very much because they’re all predictions about the future. As predictions, however, a gap of a couple of dozen spots does matter. You’re right that 5 to 30 is more important, but 50 to 75 still matters.
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
i suppose "matters" is open to interpretation.
but based on the research done on this, such as by victor wang, i wouldn’t call the latter difference something particularly significant or that matters to me. certainly not to the level where i’d be calling other people’s comments ridiculous or questioning their interest in the sport if they don’t hold the same opinion as me.
I hope it didn't come off that way
I was trying to make it clear that I wasn’t criticizing him or any person specifically, but rather the general idea, that people seem to be repeating. If you, or the OP was offended, I do apologize.
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by OldProspects on Mar 3, 2010 10:48 PM EST up reply actions
You're completely ignoring the factor of probability.
Guys who are less likely to reach their ceiling get ranked lower, and it’s not an indictment on their ability to be impact players.
I wasn't writing very clearly at all, apparently
I was oversimplifying why one player would be valued above another, and you’re right that upside vs. likelihood is a factor in that regard. Nonetheless, when any person tries to compare two prospects, they’re effectively saying that one person is more likely to be more valuable than the other, however one defines value.
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by OldProspects on Mar 3, 2010 10:50 PM EST up reply actions
I don't
Austin Jackson at #49
IF A-Jax is 49 this year Maybin should have been #1 the past 2 or 3 years….
Lets go get Adrian Gonzalez..... how do you say holy shit! - ~en espanol ?
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Mar 3, 2010 6:11 PM EST up reply actions
You cannot compare rankings from year to year
The talent level isn’t the same. Goldstein has already gone on record as saying this is a much weaker minor league class than he anticipated and adjusted his star rankings accordingly.
I wouldn’t put A-Jax that high, but I do think he’s a 75ish guy. The fact that he continues to get rave reviews from scouts is enough for me to keep him in that range.
specifically on the Cubs prospects
I much prefer BA’s order/ranking/list than Goldstein’s. I think Vitters is way too high, I think Hak-ju Lee is way too high.
Overall, I think I prefer the BA list a tad more, but it’s close.
99 really?
Lawrie at 99 honestly? Premium position until an official change and that bat – not the 99th best prospect.
Premium position until an official change
I don’t think anyone buys that logic at all. I prefer to discuss in terms of abilities, and I don’t think Lawrie is now or will be capable of playing 2B at a reasonable level in the bigs.
That said, I have Lawrie at #64 and am quite high on his bat.
www.bullpenbanter.com
Agreed
By that logic Montero should be #1 since he is a catcher.
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by King Billy Royal on Mar 4, 2010 8:12 AM EST up reply actions
Goldstein said in his chat...
that the ranking was based on the opinion that Lowrie won’t be able to play anything harder than COF/1B, and the expectations for a bat at those positions is MUCH higher than 2B.
I agree with those saying Noriega and Aumont are too high, also with Alonso being missing
Kalish at 76 is way too high for me, more of a fringe top 100 if not at all. I never have been a big fan of his though.
Dee Gordon at 27 is another head scratcher.
Walden being on the list, at 89, after surgery is another dubious one. He already had control problems to begin with and full recovery is far from a certain thing at this point.
I never really liked IFA signings being that high on the list either, but that is a whole other story. KG’s list does not really look that bad if you account for his toolsy/high upside player blindspot.
by tdot mariner fan on Mar 3, 2010 8:32 PM EST reply actions
agreed
on Kalish. his ceiling may be 20/20, but it doesn’t seem that likely he gets there. average defender who can probably play all three position, seems more of a 4th/5th outfielder type.
by PrincetonCubs on Mar 3, 2010 11:32 PM EST up reply actions
That's not a ceiling or perfect world projection
That was simply a statement of his tools.
The Good: Kalish can make an in-game impact in a variety of ways. He has enough bat speed and barrel awareness to hit .280-.300 annually, as well as the power and speed to deliver 20/20 seasons. His approach at the plate has improved each year to the point where it’s a true asset to his game, and he plays a solid outfield.
vs.
Perfect World Projection: If he can stay in center, he has some star potential.http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9762
You’re welcome to disagree, but I don’t really see the argument for it – other than looking at his raw numbers without adjusting for park and league and without accounting for reduced power for a year+ due to hamate removal.
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I read
the “good” part to say that he could potentially deliver, w/ his tools, 20/20 seasons. That sounds like a ceiling. Considering the most he’s stolen in the minors is 21; his power ISO in AA last year was just .169 (I thought the EL was pretty even on hitters/pitchers, but you may think different)…I feel like there’s a fairly strong argument for that being best case scenario.
I say 4th/5th OF because it isn’t clear he sticks in center as a regular. If he does, then he’s definitely starter caliber. If not, then his bat doesn’t play in the corners unless he hits (what I believe to be) his ceiling.
by PrincetonCubs on Mar 4, 2010 12:24 PM EST up reply actions
I'm a homer but
isn’t Matusz a wee bit low. They can have Westmoreland five slots above Brian I’ll take the lefty
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4 star vs 5 star
This has always confused me. I believe that Goldstein gives a 5-star rating to anyone in his top 50. Yet Bell is not only in the top 50 but rated ahead of Moore on this list, but Bell is a 4 star and Moore is a 5 star. I like this list (minus the Matusz placement) but I think he neds to clean up his star-based rating system
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by The Congo Hammer on Mar 4, 2010 10:37 AM EST reply actions
Baltimore was done before he put his top 101 together
He said that he only had 35(I think) 5-star prospects when he first put his list together and had to bump up some 4-star guys (Arodys Vizcaino being the best example, he got 4 stars on the Yankees top 11 and 5 as a Brave). I hate the system and apparently he’s going to make changes to the star system next year to be less dependent on the year to year minor league talent level.
CC
This has been one of the more aggressive ranks for Chris Carter. I really believe in the bat, and think he can be around league average defensively at 1B. This is right around where I rank him, but are others surprised by this and why?
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