Sawyer Carroll, why no love?

by Ophidian on Mar 18, 2010 9:55 AM EDT

So I've been looking at Sawyer Carroll's numbers and wondering a little bit about why he's getting so little love. I can only assume the scouting reports offer little projection and/or a likelihood he can't handle anything but 1B defensively.

Kevin Goldstein had this to say about him last June:

 A third-round pick last June, Carroll's coming out party continued at 
the Midwest League All-Star game, as he earned "Star of Stars" honors 
with his perfect night at the plate.  A big athlete with gap power, 
decent speed and an excellent approach, Carroll is batting 
.316/.410/.464 on the season, but has been ever better than that of 
late, going 22-for-53 (.415) in his last 15 games.

As for his line last season across 3 levels: Fangraphs

Can someone with additional information clue me in to why he's just another d00d for most?

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couple things

home cooking, lucky?, and high ARL.

by cooper7d7 on Mar 18, 2010 10:50 AM EDT reply actions

Fair point

I guess the scary thing for me is that though he hit for solid power, because he strikes out fairly often but doesn’t hit many home runs, his offensive value seems particularly vulnerable to a BABIP drop. If his BABIP dipped to .350, for example season line OPS would have dropped to around .800. That doesn’t make him a bad prospect, just not an especially great one for a 23 yo corner OF who will be playing in Petco

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by OldProspects on Mar 18, 2010 7:28 PM EDT reply actions

Sawyer Carroll

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2008/reports.jsp?content=carroll

When drafted:

Strengths: Improved hitting approach with good size and strength.

Weaknesses: Being limited to left field, the questions about his power at the next level become amplified.

Summary: Carroll turned down an offer a year ago to sign with the Nationals as an 18th-round pick to return to Kentucky. The Wildcats must be happy as the senior has been among the Division I leaders in hitting for much of the year and has dramatically improved his power output. Scouts do not think, however, that the power will translate to the pro game, and the fact that Carroll will be limited to left field, at best, does cap his Draft status somewhat. Still, he’s bound to enhance his round by a good margin this June.

With only 8 HR this year, his power isn’t great for a corner. Still, he knocked a bunch of doubles and triples. And had a bunch of walks. He also has been playing right field, so maybe the scouting report underestimated his arm some, he did have 14 assists this year. Also, enough speed to steal 19 bases.

He’s also listed at 6’4", so I wonder if there might not still be more power there, if some of those doubles turn into HR. Have to like a guy with no big flaws, only question is whether there’s a bit more power there.

by acerimusdux on Mar 19, 2010 5:10 AM EDT reply actions