Prospects to Watch: A's, Giants, Padres and more...

esterday we posted the Padres(5th) season preview, and today we've got the Giants (4th) and the Oakland (4th). Additionally, Gatling posted a piece titled, Blocked "Prospects" Part One: Sean Rodriguez which as you could have guessed, is about Tampa Bay's Sean Rodriguez.. Alskor posted an interesting piece about The Qualities that Cause Prospects to Become Overrated. I'm going to post an except from each, let us know what you think. If you want to read the full pieces, you'll have to stop by Bullpen Banter. There isn't enough room for everything! Oh, and don't forget about our Top 50 Prospects

Al Skorupa (Alskor) on overrated prospects:

It takes no more than a cursory glance of the minor league leaderboards to realize there is more to baseball prospecting than simply looking at raw minor league statistics. There are a number of other factors that must be considered to understand a player's performance in the minor leagues. Age, park and league are among some of the things that must be adjusted for to place a prospect's performance in the proper context.

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It is important to note here that despite having one of the flaws listed below a guy can still be an excellent prospect. Further, the presence of these flaws in no way means that a player will not turn into an excellent major leaguer. This is mostly about perception. It is about the common apprehension of the player as a better prospect than they actually are. It is all very subjective and none of these are hard and fast rules to be followed. They are simply some stereotypes. My hope is that by identifying and talking about these stereotypes we will be able to learn more about how we evaluate and value prospects. I'm thinking we might have a few laughs at our own expense over the common mistakes we make in player evaluation, too.

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7. Pitchers who look dominant in the minors but whose stuff doesnt last long into games or who can't stay healthy

Examples: Francisco Liriano, Joba Chamberlain, Joel Zumaya, Adam Miller, Carl Pavano, Thomas Diamond

Always sad to see. Its important to remember health is a skill. Its hard to find a balance.

Mike Herrick (Gatling) on Sean Rodriguez:

You'll notice the word prospects is in quotations in the title of this article since Sean Rodriguez is technically no longer a prospect as he's surpassed the industry standard 130 AB's in the majors.  However he is far from a proven commodity and while he went from a situation with Angels where he was blocked at two postions by three players, he's now blocked again at two positions by three players in Tampa.

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What have we learned about Rodriguez from all of this?  Well, defensively he appears to be capable of being average or a touch better than average at either middle infield spot, though he hasn't played short regularly in a couple of years and may be best suited to second base.  We also know that he's likely to post a walk rate in the 8-10% range while likely striking out 27-32% of the time as well.  He has average to a tick above average power in his bat and while he posted good batting averages in the minors I'm not sure he's more than a .260 hitter at best in the majors.  He looks like he could be a poor man's Dan Uggla with better defense to me, a .250/.330/.410 hitter with +5 runs/150 defensive ability.  I can see Rodriguez being a 2.5-3.5 win player for a number of years, with an outside shot of a 4 win season or two at his absolute peak. 

A segment from the A's prospects:

Michael Herrick: The A's made a concerted effort to rebuild the farm a couple of years back and it started paying off well last season.  Out of this crop of prospects, I'm going to narrow it down to three names: Josh Donaldson, Fautino De Los Santos, and Ian Krol.  Donaldson needs to improve a few elements of his defense, with blocking pitches being at the top of the list.  He does a good job of throwing out runners, has at least gap power capable of 10 HR and 40 doubles potentially, and has very good control of the strikezone.  While he didn't make my Top 100 list, he does fall in the 101-150 range for me.

De Los Santos has ace upside but lost some developmental time to Tommy John surgery.  Prior to surgery he possessed a low to mid 90's fastball that could touch 97, a hard biting slider, and a curve and change that both looked capable of becoming above average pitches.  He turned 24 last month and how he does in the spring will likely determine how aggressive the A's are with his assignment to start the year, he could come on in a hurry and be ready to help in the bigs at some point in 2011.

Krol saw his draft stock fall after being suspended for his senior year of high school in Illinois for underage drinking.  He has average velocity for a lefty right now, though the A's have had quite a bit of success the last couple of years in squeezing an extra couple of MPH's out of their pitchers with slight mechanical adjustments.  Anyone who read Moneyball remembers the "put a Milo on him" part I'm sure, so the fact that the A's gambled on the talent here with a near $1 million tells me they must see something really special.  He has a very good curve and a solid change up for a prep arm, so he could move quicker than your average high school kid.

A segment on Padres prospects:

JD Sussman: I love Everett Williams, however, I've made the decision that I will no longer mention anyone related to my fantasy team, so I'm going to choose Edinson Rincon who I ranked very highly. Rincon won't stick at the hot corner, nor will he probably ever be a plus fielder in right (where I project he'll end up because of a strong arm, but inconsistent arm), but he has a great bat.  Born in 1990, he signed in 2007 out of the Dominican. He reached the North West League this season and was named the league's second best prospect by Baseball America. His walk rate really stands out to me as an aspect of his game that I like.

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Al Skorupa: I'm intrigued by RHP Adys Portillo. Didn't do all that well this year, but his stuff is impressive. Should be a very interesting year for this farm system. Experts are all over the map ranking it. Many talented players are potentially on the verge of make-or-break years.

A segment on Giants Prospects:

Michael Herrick: I'm going to keep an eye on Rafael Rodriguez, but he's a long way off from contributing as he won't turn 18 until July and he needs a lot refinement to his game and plenty of experience.  With that in mind I'm going with Tommy Joseph.  Joseph was the Giants 2nd round pick in 2009 but didn't get into any action after signing.  He projects to hit for a high average and there looks to be above average power in his bat as well.  While scouts seem high on his offensive ability, they're almost as down on his defense.  Drafted as a catcher he doesn't seem a good bet to stick there long term, though the Giants seem to be willing to let him try.  I'd go ahead and move him elsewhere now, there isn't much reason to risk him stagnating as catching prospects can when his bat looks so special.  With Buster Posey the future behind the plate I'd let Joseph move to 1B(his long term destination) and let his bat dictate how quickly he progresses.  John Sickels compares him to Paul Konerko based on the potential with the bat, I'm sure the Giants would be happy with that outcome.

Just a few segments! Let us know what you think.