aroldis chapman or madison bumgarner
by drewlev on Mar 16, 2010 10:24 AM EDT
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I’m a Bumgarner fan … and I’d say Chapman.
Bummy has been just awful so far in ST.
"Most overrated prospect in the minors." -- Bravesin07 on Madison Bumgarner
i agree
bumgarner was ranked higher than chapman on most lists before spring training began. including the community list. i just wanted to see how drastically opinion has changed.
Bumgarner
I know I’m not the only one who thinks this, and this is a horse that has been beaten, but he was way overrated as a prospect. The red flags were all over the place – declining velocity, questionable secondary stuff, declining strikeout rates, etc. Somehow, people got totally consumed with ARL, ERA, and W-L – which most of us know better than to do.
This is Chapman by miles and miles.
Being a MadBum defender...
I just want to point out that this community wasn’t the only place where MadBum continued to be ranked fairly high. I don’t think he dropped below 30 on any list. The difference is we have more information now than we did when we voted.
I’ll admit, I was placing a great deal of faith on comments from a scout, what the Giants were saying, and how they handled him at the end of the year. I assume BP, BA, KLaw, and others did as well. I understood bumping him down due to his loss of velocity at the end of last year, and I’d understand bumping him down further based on the latest information. I wasn’t so much ignoring the lack of Ks and velocity rather my concerns about velocity, which was somewhat mitigated for the reasons I mentioned, was linked to the drop in Ks.
Similarly, when we voted, there were inconsistent reports about Chapman’s velocity and his command. I’d rate him higher now than i did before based on his spring performance, although it is a small sample size. I’d put him in the top 20-25, and he’ll stay there for me until he pitches in real games.
So, really, it wasn’t just some bit of over-sight by the community, many in the industry were giving MadBum the benefit of the doubt, while using some caution with Chapman.
MadBum lost credibility because of spring, and he’ll lose more if his velocity doesn’t come back during the year. Chapman gained credibility because of his spring, and he’ll gain more if he continues to pitch this way during the year. It’s just reevaluating based on new information.
Poster formerly known as artie
Fair Enough
Although I haven’t seen the concerns about Chapman’s velocity. I may be a tools whore but I’ll take the lefty that throws 98+ over the lefty that sits in the high 80’s 100 times out of 100 — even if the one with the 98 mph fastball is unrefined and doesn’t know where it’s going.
There were some...
who were siting inconsistent reports, some said low-90s, and some said 100. The problem was with lack of credible sources.
But I’d definitely take a high 90s lefty over a high 80s left, no doubt. I don’t know anyone who would argue that.
However, at the time, if you believed the scout and Giant officials that MadBum would return to mid-90s at spring, what we were talking about was a high 90s lefty with questionable command who is 21 and a mid-90s lefty who great command and K/BB ratio, had dominated the minors and made his major league debut at 20. At that point I think you could have some debate about who you’d rather have, and I think most people would take the mid-90s guy with great command and a solid track record.
Poster formerly known as artie
Most of those reports were from sessions where he wasn’t airing it all out and they were generally positive reports (at least the couple that I saw). We have/had gameday data to prove that he does have premier velocity and the questions with Chapman are whether his offspeed stuff can be consistently good and if he can command it.
Those questions still exist. He’s been great in his first couple of outings, but they were short outings. I’ve been saying that I can see him being an effective late inning reliever right now so my ranking of him hasn’t changed much. He’s in the 15-20 range.
Oh, I know...
during our off-season bid, I missed on Chapman (I got Sceppers, Withrow, and Crosby, so I’m not too mad), but I missed on him because I listened too much to the reports of inconsistent velocity and command, leading to many to believe he’d be a bullpen guy. So believe me, I know where I went wrong evaluating Chapman.
That said, I’d still have hard time having him break the top 20, although I could understand arguments for it.
Poster formerly known as artie
When was Bumgarner in the mid 90s?
From everything I’ve read, Bumgarner was never better than 92-93 last season and spent the vast majority of the year sitting in the 89-91 range. I know Adam Foster over at project prospect had Bumgarner sitting at 90 or lower in May of last year. Honestly I think the whole idea of Bumgarner having mid 90s heat was pretty much a myth from the get go. I’m sure he was touching 95 or so at times in 2008, but as far as I can tell he never sat at those velocities and he’s been a low 90s guy at best since early last year.
Ok, I'll be more precise...
and I won’t debate the accuracy of these reports, but just what BA said about him…
in 2008, they said he worked 92-94. In his top 10 description, they said sits 94-95.
In 2009, they said he worked 93-94. In his Southern league description, as he was losing velocity, they said he started 90-94, then dipped to 89-91.
in 2010, they said, at his best, he worked in the mid-90s.
So, you might call that low to mid 90s, or mid 90s, and you might suggest that these reports were based on some faulty measuring, but when most people were evaluating him as a prospect, they were assuming these reports were accurate and that MadBum worked in the mid-90s (or low to mid 90s, whichever).
Poster formerly known as artie
Personally I don't consider any of those reports to constitute mid 90s,
or low to mid 90s for that matter. If the top velocity you comfortably sit as is the cutoff for mid 90’s, than I’m not going to use the term mid 90’s in your scouting report. In my mind, mid 90s means a guy works in the 94-96 range. 94 has pretty much always been the top end of the range anyone will use in reference to Bumgarner, and for the most part those reports were finished by the middle of last season (another issue I’ll get back to). I’ve never seen Bumgarner as anything other than a guy who at his best sits in the low 90s with the ability to dial it up a bit on occasion.
The other issue here is the lag between publicly available scouting reports and the events that were scouted. Sure, most of the information on Bumgarner’s velocity drop didn’t start coming to light until the end of last season, but if you had taken the time to delve into the issue you may have noticed there was significant talk of Bumgarner struggling to throw much harder than by the middle of the season. Adam Foster talked about seeing Bumgarner in person as early as May, getting him at 89-91 throughout the night, and talking to other scouts who had seen the same thing. Its just that these reports take significant time to filter their way to the general public.
The other example I always come back to on this issue is Tommy Hanson and his slider. Prior to the 2008 AFL there were still a ton of scouting reports that spoke of Hanson as a potential #2 at best with a good fastball and a great curve, but nothing else to speak of. The issue of course was that Hanson had started throwing his slider again in late June and the pitch was clearly a plus offering with plus-plus potential. Hanson completely dominated from that point forward in the season as a second plus breaking pitch made him nearly unhittable to minor league hitters. The spike in numbers was simply staggering, yet to read most scouting reports you’d think nothing had changed. Then he goes out, completely dominates the AFL in a manner never seen before, shows the slider can be a true plus-plus pitch, beats out Heyward in the BA rankings, etc. Yet you could still see the scouting reports lagging behind the actual results as most people continued to rank Hanson behind guys that were further away with clearly inferior stuff and John refused to budge on his B+ grade for Hanson, which looks especially bad in retrospect since he had the opportunity to change the grade after the AFL, upped grades of multiple pitchers who started with the same grade, and ultimately ended up keeping Hanson the same leading to him be ranked behind guys like Cahill and Bumgarner and having the same grade as a guy like Alderson.
And one more...
even in his pre-draft scouting description, they said he worked 92-94.
Poster formerly known as artie
Chapman for me.
Dfarth nails it for me.
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who has the 3rd pitch?
Chapman does. Ergo, I voted for Chapman.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Mar 17, 2010 2:43 AM EDT reply actions
and as a Tar Heel
that pains me to say.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Mar 17, 2010 2:43 AM EDT up reply actions
I think he's saying Bumgarner doesn't have a useful third pitch/good secondary stuff
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Chapman
is the most talented young lefty in baseball right now, Minors or Majors.
"This has got to hurt"
you're insane
Until he proves that he can do it for a year(no, a couple ST starts doesnt make him the best young lefty in baseball), he is no where near that level
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Mar 17, 2010 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I think it's pretty clear
he’s the most talented lefty, certainly in the minors though I do agree his major league ranking is debatable. He’s undoubtedly got one of the highest ceilings in the minors. I don’t think anybody here is saying he’s reached that potential but he’s got all the tools to become an elite pitcher and perhaps just as importantly an impressive floor for a player with his upside.
Who loves orange soda?
by Kenan and Kel on Mar 17, 2010 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions
His floor is a bullpen guy
Not an impressive ceiling(although he probably could be a closer).
And I have trouble calling anyone who has made, what, 3 ST appearances, the best lefty of anything… does he have that potential? Absolutely. Does he deserve that title based on a few ST appearances? No way.
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Mar 17, 2010 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Not an impressive ceiling?
I agree that his floor is as a late inning reliever without any further development, but if anything that helps his prospect status. His ceiling is absolutely massive and he’s an elite prospect.
Yeah, most talent young lefty in the majors is hyperbole, but he’s definitely among the top 3-4 that are still prospects.
Yes. Yes he does.
His secondary stuff is impressive, if raw. He doesnt control it well but it shows promise. Read that link jibs posted.
Bumgarner has two below average secondary pitches that need a lot of work.
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twitter: @alskor
well
I voted Chapman simply because I think he’s the better pitcher, by a fairly wide margin. But I went back and forth with my vote because the poll was asking about this year. I think MadBum will be up with the Giants all year. I think Chapman will only be up for about half the year. And yet, I still chose Chapman.
The wind is in the buffalo.
Even if Bumgarner is up all or most of the year
If he’s pitching like this (sitting mid to high 80’s, poor control, bad secondary stuff) he’s going to get rocked.
Bullpen Banter
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twitter: @alskor
Chapman has always been credited for having a fairly good ability to change his speeds; which IMO ended up painting the picture that he had “inconsistent velocity”. Cuban pitchers seem to put a lot of emphasis on varying their speeds, whereas most American power pitchers will just pump 95mph fastballs.
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