Debate Amongst Friends

Both that I’m a huge Havens fan and think he’s underrated, but also that this debate really doesn’t seem that close. Ackley vs. Taylor is a huge advantage to the first pair already, and its tough to make any kind of case that Havens makes that ground up.

But he’ll have plenty of bust and mid-range potential until he does something in the upper levels, too. I feel like the low batting average is being considered way too heavily in his case though. He’s a second baseman (long term anyway) who makes lots of contact (17.0 K%), draws plenty of walks (12.7 BB%), and hits for solid power (.175 ISO, 8.0% HR/BIA). The low batting average wasn’t because he’s swinging and missing, it was because he hit a few too many popups, a more correctable problem than a high K%. He was a bit old for the FSL, but it was the FSL, the lowest run environment in the minors, and he was one of the most productive hitters in the league while trying to play the most demanding defensive position besides catcher.

Part of this is that I feel like Havens is the exact kind of prospect who can take some time to develop, but might not hit his ceiling for quite some time. He’s not some stud athlete whose pure athleticism is suddenly going to take him to the next level. But his offensive game is above average across the board and there’s room for improvement. He even drew more walks than strikeouts vs LHP, a great sign that platoon splits might not be a huge problem. Plus he’s fundamentally sound, enough where he could be come an average or better defender at second despite below average athleticism. You look at the best second baseman in the game right now, even in recent history, and quite a few really didn’t make a significant major league impact until they were 25 or 26, especially ones with a similar type of profile. Chase Utley, Craig Biggio, and Jeff Kent all legit HOF candidates, none were absurdly athletic prospects, all known first for their bat and second their fundamental abilitiy. Biggio, probably the most likely right now to make the hall, didn’t have a wOBA over .350 until he was 27. At 26, Utley was yet to play a full season in the majors, and was coming off a .331 career high wOBA. Through age 29, Jeff Kent consistently had .330-.350 wOBAs, but didn’t become a monster until his age 30 season. Using potential HOFers may be a bit extreme for talking about anyone in HiA, but consider the following more contemporary and less productive semi-stars: Ian Kinsler, Robinson Cano, Ben Zobrist, Aaron Hill, Dan Uggla, Orlando Hudson, Brandon Phillips. None of these guys really became impact players until they got into the second half of their twenties, and the ones who played in the majors prior to that were mostly unproductive and sometimes downright terrible. Its the toolsier shortstops and outfielders and slugging first and third baseman are more often the guys who break in between 20-23. Of course, there are always Dustin Pedroia’s too, but the point is, when talking about second baseman with the type of skillset Havens has, the guys who do eventually hit their ceilings often take some time to do it.