Discussion Question: Tanner Scheppers vs. Chris Withrow
by John Sickels on Mar 12, 2010 9:00 AM EST
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Whenever I do one of these either/or discussion questions, I try to pick one that I think will result in a close poll result and good discussion. We usually do get good discussion about it, but the poll results are never as close as I think they are going to be. So let's try again.
Today's topic is Tanner Scheppers of the Rangers vs. Chris Withrow of the Dodgers. Both are hard-throwing right-handers with electric stuff. Withrow is younger (born April 1, 1989, Scheppers born January 17, 1987). Scheppers is one inch taller (6-4, 195 vs 6-3, 195). Both have blistering fastballs clocked in the mid-to-upper-90s at times, though I think Scheppers may be just a hair faster. Both have strong curveballs. Both need to polish their changeups. Both have injury problems in their resume: Withrow with elbow problems in '08, Scheppers with shoulder trouble. Scheppers is considered a bit more polished in general, but Withrow has more of a pro track record to look that.
So, if you could have one guy or the other for your favorite major league organization, who would you pick?
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Withrow
I would go with Withrow. While both have dominant stuff, shoulder injuries tend to worry me more then elbow injuries (although both are red flags).
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by King Billy Royal on Mar 12, 2010 9:12 AM EST reply actions
I have both of them on my team currently...
and all things considered, I think I’d go Scheppers. Shoulder injuries are scary, I’ll grant you, but here’s the rationale…
Looking at the coverage Scheppers has gotten in the AFL and so far in spring, I think his stuff is better than Withrow. Scheppers command of his stuff is better, and he’s a more refined product than Withrow. I think Scheppers stays in the rotation and hits the majors ahead of Withrow.
There are some questions with both of them, I think Withrow has more questions, such as advancing the consistency of his stuff, improving his control (which didn’t show much improvement over the year), and durability, but Scheppers remaining question is a big one: his shoulder health.
At this point, I’m placing faith with the Ranger medical staff who, last I read, didn’t think there was a tear. Also, from what I’ve read (and I don’t put too much into this level of analysis anyway), his throwing motion is fine.
So anyway, it’s close, and I think Withrow could easily jump from 40-50 prospect to the top 20 this year, and maybe even make it to the majors. I just think Scheppers is closer to that, and I’ll roll the dice on his shoulder.
Poster formerly known as artie
But shouldn't Sheppers be more refined with 2 more years of expierence?
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Mar 12, 2010 4:31 PM EST up reply actions
Sure he should...
but the remaining open question is whether Withrow will experience that same refinement as he develops. He may, or may not. With Scheppers, it’s no longer a question.
Poster formerly known as artie
Exactly
Too many people assume that the majority of pitchers tend to progress fairly linearly like position players do. With pitchers it simply isn’t the case. ARL is extremely overrated for pitchers. ARL is the main reason guys like Bumgarner, Cahill, and Alderson made the community list over Hanson last year. People focused on the fact that they were ahead of Hanson at the same age, completely disregarding that Hanson went on to added quite a bit of velocity to his fastball, developed his curve into at least a plus pitch, and added a plus slider to his arsenal in the intervening years. The chances of the younger guys developing like that was relatively small, but so many people seemed to take it as a given that they would just because they were better at a younger age.
by nixa37 on Mar 12, 2010 5:28 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
How is it not a question?
What has Scheppers done? He needs to prove he can handle being a professional. Withrow has proven that and is going to start AA at age 20. Scheppers, Im guessing, will start in A ball as a 22 year old…
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Mar 12, 2010 5:30 PM EST up reply actions
Scheppers is expected to start in the Frisco rotation...
so in AA, and because he’s created such a buzz in spring, they expect him to be in the majors by this summer.
As I said, just from what I’ve read about him during the AFL and spring, leads me to believe his stuff is better at this point than Withrow’s. It’s not surprising that a 22 year old may have more refined stuff than a 20 year old, so it’s not really a knock on Withrow, but more a compliment to Scheppers. Such as, knowing his FB is already a 70, and hearing a scout speculate as to whether his CB isn’t better than his FB.
This impression may be entirely due to the fact that Scheppers is getting press because he’s pitching in spring, but it is what it is. I wish Withrow were pitching in spring games too.
John purposely picked these two because the debate is really splitting hairs. As I said, I have both of them on my team, so I obviously like both of them a great deal. I think both have a chance to end the year in the majors, but right now, given what we know, I fall on the side of Scheppers.
Poster formerly known as artie
Recent Strat Draft results
In our 2010 Strat Draft, Scheppers went in round 7 and Withrow went in round 9. If you believe in “the wisdom of crowds”, that ought to be indicative of something. I think the more recent elbow injury to Withrow was the key factor. Scheppers injury didn’t seem to be as serious and since he’s a former college pitcher and two years older, he’s closer to the majors.
Withrow pitched in AA last year. I'd say he's closer to the majors.
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by Daniel Berlyn on Mar 12, 2010 11:44 AM EST up reply actions
scheppers could see a good chuck of MLB time this year
if withrow sees time this year (unlikely), it will only be as a cup of coffee sept. callup.
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Withrow
not sure where you’re getting this info from, but there’s a very good chance he gets to the majors for more than a cup of coffee.
No, there isnt
He made 6 starts in AA last year. He will go to AA for most, if not all, of the year and could get a Sept callup. Unless there are some MAJOR changes and injuries, Withrow only gets a cup of coffee
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Mar 12, 2010 4:32 PM EST up reply actions
Scheppers would have to...
tear up the minor leagues to spend time in the majors as anything other than a reliever if he even makes it. Withrow may not have to do anything too spectacular to jump two levels. Also, I would much rather take Withrow’s injury. Shoulder problems could really mess him up.
Given his lack of expierence
And the fact the Dodgers keep their pitchers in AA for a while and then skip AAA, I would think he spends all year in AA. In Sept, I could see a callup, but for him to come to the Dodgers and stay for a long time(multiple months), he’d have to refine his changeup and dominate the league. In just a couple on months, doesnt seem likely, IMO. And even if he does, there is no guarantee he is called up
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Mar 12, 2010 5:24 PM EST up reply actions
Not saying he will...
play in the majors, I just don’t see Scheppers playing in the majors as more likely.
I think we are agreeing
I doubt either of them sees the majors, and if they do, it will be a cup of coffee. IMO, neither will be called up in June and stay for the year…
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Mar 12, 2010 5:27 PM EST up reply actions
The only reason I think...
It’s more likely is that the Rangers have mentioned it on more than one occasion, that they could bring Scheppers up in the pen sometime in Summer.
And as I mentioned, this may just be a factor of Scheppers pitching in spring, and his time table being a topic. If Withrow was pitching in spring, its quite possible the dodgers could be saying the same thing.
Poster formerly known as artie
I'm still unclear on what the extent of Scheppers' injury is
But it was shoulder, we know that much. If it was a stress fracture, than it doesn’t concern me much at all. If it was something labrum or rotator cuff that might swing this around for me. As I’ve said before, Scheppers’ mechanics and delivery look pretty smooth to me.
All things being equal, I think you always have to take the guy with elbow injury over the guy with the shoulder problems…. but all things arent equal here for me. I think Scheppers is a rare and special talent.
This was a tough call I had to think about for awhile (despite initially having Scheppers about 20 spots higher on my top 100) but I’m going with Scheppers. His stuff is just electric, and a step above Withrow’s.
Both guys are very talented and you really can’t go wrong here.
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i think i have to agree
this is really tough though… I’ve been under-rating Scheppers because of his injury… he really does look special the more vid of him i watch
Withrow all the way
His injuries (cutting his hand on a scuba mask) have tended not to be structural, whereas Scheppers’ have been. I have been banging this drum around here as long as I’ve been posting, that people have been underrating pros like Beckett (blisters) and prospects like Hamels (broken hand in a bar fight) and painting them as injury-prone, when their injuries are flukey or likely to be overcome, whereas they overrate prospects who do have structural injuries because of the advancements in surgery.
Add to that the fact that I see most projections having Withrow as a starter and Scheppers as a reliever, and that makes this a rather easy call for me. It’s not even close, IMO.
The scuba thing wasn't the only injury
That was relatively minor. He was shut down with elbow soreness in 2008.
Injured his hand in the 2008 off-season when he cut it throwing a snorkel mask. No, seriously, that’s what happened. The cut significantly delayed his 2008 campaign, and then when he was finally ready to go, a sore elbow shut him down for a majority of the rest of the season.
http://www.memoriesofkevinmalone.com/2009/02/prospect-profiles-2009-chris-withrow_24.html
He sustained a deep cut on his right index finger in a snorkeling accident during spring training in 2008, then was bothered by elbow tenderness for most of that season.
Withrow has had some elbow issues in the past, and there is some effort to his delivery.
http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10024
A first-round pick in 2007, Withrow worked just 13 innings in his first two pro seasons because he had elbow problems.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/rankings/league-top-20-prospects/2009/268950.html
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yes, he had elbow soreness
And the Dodgers took it VERY slow. Similar to Scott Elbert after his surgery(except Withrow has never needed to go under the knife), they were really cautious. He had no problems last year and dominated where he went, as a 20 year old…
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Mar 12, 2010 4:35 PM EST up reply actions
Add to that the fact
… that the soreness kept Withrow shelved instead of piling up innings on his arm within the injury nexus and I consider that a net positive overall.
by Flynn Blake on Mar 12, 2010 10:50 PM EST up reply actions
Are you serious???
You actually consider an elbow injury a “net positive?”
You can’t be serious right now. You need to take a step back and reevaluate things.
Maybe you should hope he has another injury this year so his arm will be fresh in 2011!
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You're right
Maybe not a net positive overall, but there are clear benefits to not slagging your arm during the ages 18-20 years. The fact that he seems to be over it and his arm is “fresher” … well, that’s not the same as a net positive, but he seems to have clear sailing ahead. I wouldn’t say the same for Scheppers at this point.
I don’t own Withrow (or Scheppers). I have no dog in this fight. All I’m saying is that people tend to overrate the less serious kind of injuries for the wrong reasons, and underrate the more serious ones. I wouldn’t want to bet on Tanner Scheppers’ shoulder and it amazes me how many people in this thread don’t seem to care about it.
by Flynn Blake on Mar 12, 2010 11:07 PM EST up reply actions
I posted in this year's profile that...
…it’s arguable as to whether the cut on the hand and the elbow injury were correlated. He got a late start to the season and likely rushed it a bit to try and get back on pace. He started last year with no problems and had no issues.
by Chad Moriyama on Mar 15, 2010 3:19 AM EDT up reply actions
plan
I believe the plan for Scheppers this year is to have him be a SP (likely starts in AA) and then possibly bring him up midseason as a reliever like they did with Feliz last year. The Rangers want to limit his innings due to his relative inactivity last year. Longterm they see him as a SP.
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I'd go with Schep
His plane is unlike anyone I’ve seen in a long time. He comes from so high; the path of the ball to the plate looks like it is always moving down. Do you think Rangers ask him to stop the bouncing he does before the windup? Has anyone seen a pitcher do this before? I don’t know why, but he reminds me of Mark Fidrych.
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Scheppers
I go with the guy that has the better stuff. All reports seem to point that Scheppers could get out MLB ballplayers as a reliever now. I don’t think Withrow can be seen to do the same thing.
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Scheppers
It looks like his throwing arm is late in the picture which might help explain the shoulder issue.
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Long Term
It looks like scheppers is gonna be restricted to bullpen/closer. I have heard 0 talk about his future past being a mid season call up in 2010. Will he ever get the chance to start? If Withrow’s ceiling is in the Dodgers front of the Dodgers rotation and Scheppers ceiling is a top reliever or closer, Withrow gets the edge no matter who’s stuff is better right now
Just to say...
Nolan Ryan has said they view Scheppers as a starter. They have also said they’re going to limit his innings, so he may start in the minors, and pitch out of the pen in the majors later in the year, ala Feliz.
And that their medical staff said the shoulder injury was muscular not skeletal.
Poster formerly known as artie
Scheppers is going to a starter... That is from both the GM and the president
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
okay..
But the whole reason we are comparing these two players is because they have electric stuff and arm issues. Withrow has shown strong innings as a starter post injury – Scheppers has shown strength in short stints but will the arm be able to handle a starters workload year in – year out
Define strong innings...
I’m sure they had Withrow on a strict pitch count last year, as he only pitched over 5 innings once all of last year.
I don’t blame them for being careful, but I wouldn’t say the question of Withrow’s durability has been put to rest, especially for a 20 year old.
Poster formerly known as artie
strong innings
131 k’s and in 113.2 innings is strong for a 20 year old in AA. His last start of the season was one of his strongest ( 5 innings, 2 hits, no runs, 2 hits, 3 walks, 8 k’s). I would argue literally no young blue chip prospects (especially in AA at age 20) pitch over 5 innings per game. quality of start is much more important than number of innings and he showed strong stuff in the innings he got post injury
Oh, ok...
I think I just misunderstood your post. It seemed to suggest that Withrow threw strong innings post surgery, and Scheppers hasn’t shown he can handle a starter’s workload. It seemed you were comparing their respective abilities to handle a starter’s workload.
Withrow did have a good season, a few too many walks, but overall it was a strong season. However, I wouldn’t say that throwing 114 innings answers the question about whether he is durable or not. Scheppers obviously has to answer that question himself this year.
I’d argue that neither has demonstrated the ability to handle a starter’s workload. This will be the year that they will be able to show it, although Scheppers will be on a shorter leash.
Poster formerly known as artie
Just sayin
the question here is who would you rather have for your organization. I think Withrow has proven more at a younger age and is (relatively) the safer bet at this point to be a front-end type starter. I certainly was not declaring Withrow free from injury concerns, I was just impressed with his 2009 numbers post injury and feel more comfortable with him over Scheppers at the moment. I agree that after this year this could be a completely different argument.
Neither has demonstrated
the ability to handle a starter’s workload, but Withrow has done more than Scheppers…
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Mar 13, 2010 12:20 AM EST up reply actions
Is it possible that the answer changes depending on the team?
If you’re the Yankees or Red Sox, I would think that it might make sense to lean toward Scheppers. He’s probably got better stuff and might be a bit more dominating. He’s also more likely to suffer a major injury at some point. While healthy, though, he has more upside and could be a dominating force for a shorter amount of time.
If you’re a rebuilding team, however, Withrow might be the better fit. He’s got a better chance of staying healthy and could help solidify a young rotation for years to come. If you assume the Scheppers is more likely to flame out after a few great years, he may not be as good a fit for a rebuilding team.
You do realize Withrow has full ace potential, right?
He hit 99 in games last year multiple times, with a curveball to counter. The main thing that will keep him from being an ace is if he cannot develop a changeup and refine it, which is what he will look to do this year.
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Mar 12, 2010 4:38 PM EST up reply actions
No
that would be “which SS will win a batting title, Elvis Andrus or Chin Lung Hu?” These guys have a lot of talent and are pretty young(Withrow is younger than pretty young actually.. 20 in AA and being solid=special)…
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Mar 12, 2010 5:26 PM EST up reply actions
Withrow
Because of health and track records/experience (and the difference in stuff being relatively negligible), Withrow is preferable, and it’s not particularly close IMO.
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+1
I think Scheppers is overrated-I think he’s most likely destined for a bullpen role while Withrow can be a starter. Basically I think while Scheppers may have a higher ceiling he also has a lower floor and the difference between the two players floors’ is greater than the difference between their ceilings-if that makes any sense
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Scheppers: reliever or starter?
Maybe I’ve missed it, but I’ve seen very little discussion in this thread as to Scheppers’ ability to stick as a starter. The general viewpoint (I can recall KG, but I’m sure Callis, Law and others have said it as well) is the “Scheppers’ shoulder is a ticking time bomb and he should get to the majors (in relief) as fast as he can” one.
Don’t get me wrong, Scheppers’ stuff is fantastic. But if he’s ticketed for the pen, he’s Daniel Bard — a top shelf relief prospect and future closer, to be sure, but certainly less valuable than even a mid-rotation starter.
Most of the prospect writers...
Do suspect he could head to the pen, but so far the Rangers don’t. The Rangers have said they consider him a starter, and he’ll be in the Frisco rotation to start the year. The Rangers also said his shoulder issue was muscular, not skeletal, and they have him on an aggressive shoulder strength training program. So whether the shoulder issue is chronic or temporary is debatable.
They have said that he might make it to the majors in summer, and they will use him out of the pen to control his innings, ala Feliz.
So from what I can tell, the Rangers current plan seems to be to make him a starter until something forces them to put him in the pen.
Poster formerly known as artie
Thanks for this. If the Rangers are optimistic about it — and you’d think they’d know best — then it certainly changes my viewpoint of the situation.
by PhillyFriar on Mar 13, 2010 12:24 PM EST up reply actions
To be fair
The Rangers philosophy is to have all of their pitching prospects with any potential be starters until they prove otherwise.
by groundingout on Mar 13, 2010 1:25 PM EST up reply actions
Could just be team rhetoric
I agree with your first comment and I consider Scheppers a reliever with a remote chance of starting. The Rangers will talk him up as a starter as long as they possibly can and they have no reason not to.
…they have no reason not to.
The reason they have not to leave him at starter is if they were really concerned about his shoulder. If there really was something wrong, I think they’d shuttle him off to relief almost immediately. There’s no real upside to posturing.
I still think there’s a pretty good chance he winds up in the bullpen, but I guess that has to be upgraded from “inevitable” to “somewhat likely.”
I agree with this...
Right now Scheppers projection is heavily influenced by his shoulder issue and his lack of experience over the past two years.
Nothing will completely answer those questions until he gets out there and starts pitching every 5 days. So I do agree with you that the Rangers’ stance has less to do with posturing, and with an optimistic view of his shoulder.
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topical info
Withrow made his first appearance with the major league club today and looked pretty good. He had a curve get away from him that hit the batter, but he also flashed one very sharp curve. He struck out the side in his one inning. There was no radar gun on the tv broadcast, but from the batters’ reactions it seemed like he must have been mostly in the mid to upper 90s.
got a few swinging strikes on his fastball
like 4 and there was a lot of movement…
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