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Community Prospect #52

With 22.6% of the vote, Michael Saunders is elected Community Prospect #51.

 

1. Jason Heyward - 51%

2. Stephen Strasburg - 76%

3. Buster Posey - 20% (43% runoff)

4. Michael Stanton - 20% (54% runoff)

5. Jesus Montero - 20% (45% runoff)

6. Brian Matusz - 21%

7. Pedro Alvarez - 23%

8. Desmond Jennings - 29%

9. Carlos Santana -37% (50% runoff)

10. Neftali Feliz  -37% (50% runoff)

11. Justin Smoak - 46%

12. Domonic Brown - 23% (59% runoff)

13. Madison Bumgarner - 30%

14. Martin Perez - 28%

15. Dustin Ackley - 31%

16. Chris Carter - 33.6%

17. Jeremy Hellickson - 29.4%

18. Michael Taylor - 36.9%

19. Alcides Escobar - 37.0%

20. Christian Friedrich - 29.0%(53.2% runoff)

21. Logan Morrison - 45.6%

22. Ryan Westmoreland - 24.7%

23. Aroldis Chapman - 32.0% 

24. Wade Davis - 40.8%

25. Fernando Martinez - 30.5% 

26. Aaron Hicks - 33.3%

27. Kyle Drabek - 34.0%

28. Lonnie Chisenhall - 24.5%

29. Jenrry Mejia - 18.8%(51.6% runoff)

30. Yonder Alonso - 25.5%

31. Matt Moore - 19.0%(70.7% runoff)

32. Brett Wallace - 24.3%

33. Dan Hudson - 20.2%

34. Freddie Freeman - 17.4%

35. Jhoulys Chacin - 21.2%

36. Casey Kelly - 27.8%

37. Casey Crosby - 29.8%

38. Starlin Castro - 27.5%

39. Brett Lawrie - 18.4% (42.9% runoff)

40. Derek Norris - 17.3% (42.9% runoff)

41. Tyler Flowers - 20.2%

42. Tyler Matzek -22.7%

43. Jacob Turner - 23.0%

44. Michael Montgomery - 30.8%

45. Dee Gordon - 22%

46. Julio Teheran - 19.4%

47. Grant Green - 24.4% 

48. Hector Rondon - 20.9%

49. Josh Bell - 22.4%

50. Jaff Decker - 22.3%

 

Players will get 1 round on the poll as a tester, if they fail to draw 5% they will then be removed and sit out up to 3 rounds.

 

Players off the poll(will sit out up to 3 rounds): Todd Frazier(#51-0%), Thomas Neal(#51-2.2%), Mike Moustakas(#50-1.1%), Jarrod Parker(#50-4.3%), Simon Castro(#50-0%), Matt Dominguez(#50-2.1%), Jared Mitchell(#49-4.4%), Wil Myers(#49-1.1%), Zach Britton(#49-3.2%), Brett Jackson(#48-2.2%), Alex Colome(#48-1.1%), Zach Stewart(#48-4.4%), Donovan Tate(#48-1.1%)

 

 

Tester pool:  Josh ReddickIke Davis, Miguel Sano, James DarnellEthan MartinShelby MillerTim BeckhamJay Jackson

 

The candidates with previous round vote %:

Jake Arrieta 7.5%

Jiovanni Mier

Ryan Kalish

Josh Vitters

Arodys Vizcaino 6.5%

Chris Withrow 9.7%

Tim Beckham 6.5%

Jordan Lyles 8.6%

Jason Castro 10.8%

Tanner Scheppers 14.0%

Aaron Crow 8.6%

 

Over 130 AB/50 IP cutoff for eligibility

 

 

Please vote using the +1 system, not the rec system.  Rec'd votes will not be counted in this poll, only actual posts with +1.



2 recs  |  Comment 136 comments

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Comments

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+1

5 MORE YEARS OF FELIX!

by Marinerfanjake on Feb 9, 2010 5:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

Even atheists believe in Matt Wieters

by wickedwitch on Feb 9, 2010 8:06 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

Q: If on-base pct is so important then why don't they put it on the scoreboard? -Failcoeur

A: Because the Braves don't want to show their fans how bad you suck.

by timmy3 on Feb 10, 2010 1:31 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

"May our feet be swift. May our bats be mighty. And may our balls be...plentiful."

by nothinlikethetown on Feb 10, 2010 4:15 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

RIP Nick Adenhart

by gatling on Feb 9, 2010 5:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

For in depth fantasy analysis be sure to visit the Hawk Fantasy Sports site @ www.HawkBall.com

by PHGold09 on Feb 9, 2010 8:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220

by Mets2k9 on Feb 9, 2010 7:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

www.pbfantasysports.com
^^ check it out

by Preston Barclay on Feb 9, 2010 8:06 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond

by hero66 on Feb 9, 2010 9:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

Gatling, we need someone to take place of someone for the draft. We’re up to round 39, but he hasn’t picked in about 5 rounds. Want to take over the team, make those picks and the last round, and then keep the team?

Hey guys, I run a music blog. alternative, powerpop, punk, electronica, screamo, etc etc, check it out. http://muzikdizcovery.blogspot.com/ artist interviews and many other stuff. free cookies! (not really, but still) :D

by cwhitman412 on Feb 9, 2010 9:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I can probably do that, what is the URL for the site?

Can you handle the polls this weekend, both Saturday and Sunday? The wife and I are taking a weekend trip for Valentine’s day and I don’t expect to have computer access.

RIP Nick Adenhart

by gatling on Feb 10, 2010 12:00 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

http://twitter.com/FutureSox

by The Big Hurt on Feb 10, 2010 12:52 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

by Archie A on Feb 9, 2010 5:24 PM EST via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

+1

What you fail to understand in your joyless myopia is that baseball is the key to life-- the Rosetta Stone, if you will. If you just understood baseball better all your other questions your, your... the, uh... the aliens, the conspiracies they would all, in their way be answered by the baseball gods.

by winchester5 on Feb 9, 2010 5:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.

by demondeaconsbaseball on Feb 9, 2010 8:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

"Ninety percent I'll spend on good times, women and Irish Whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."

by strums on Feb 9, 2010 10:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.

by Kinslerhomer on Feb 9, 2010 5:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

Freude, schoener Goetterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.

by t ball on Feb 9, 2010 6:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson

by gore51 on Feb 9, 2010 9:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook

by laxtonto on Feb 9, 2010 10:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Feb 10, 2010 12:29 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

"mark kotsay for $1.5 million. or jim thome for $1.5 million.
gosh. i’m going to have to think about this one for a bit." larry

"We're gonna do this f*ucking thing over again cuz I just f*cked it up.....oh, we're live, I didn't know that" Bert Blyleven

by smoooooth on Feb 10, 2010 9:02 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

zZzZzZ

baseball rules.

by doublestix on Feb 9, 2010 10:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

Please, now.

Him, Scheppers, and Zach Stewart all REALLY are way underrated IMO.

"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West

by Blicks on Feb 9, 2010 11:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

Yes.. if a foul ball comes to the dugout, someone will be able to save Harold Baines. That’s great, but I don’t see how that helps us win games. x3 - Grinder In Training

by e-gus on Feb 10, 2010 6:04 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Voting for Kalish

Now that Saunders is on it’s time for Kalish to make the list. He looks to be above average in CF, could easily posted 15/15 seasons but I think 20/20 is possible. I don’t think a line of .280/.360/.460 is unreasonable for Kalish, with the possibility of slightly higher OBP/SLG in his peak years.

RIP Nick Adenhart

by gatling on Feb 9, 2010 5:38 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

How about

Mike Trout, Donovan Tate, Ben Revere?

Kalish has only average speed, and is probably average at best in CF. TZ has him a bit below average in CF in 3 of the last 4 seasons, and while I’m cautious about minor league TZ, the scouting seems to back that up (“Some scouts see him as a tweener, without the defense to play center, or the bat to profile on a corner” – BA handbook).

I do think he’s on soon, he is pretty solid all around. But he’s not the next outfielder I’d choose here.

by acerimusdux on Feb 9, 2010 8:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

OF's

Tate and Trout are much too far away for me to consider here, the potential is there but plenty of guys have potential. Revere is a guy I’m not real big on, not sure he ends up more than a 4th OF/fringe starter. Of the three, only Tate made my top 100, and that was near the very end. Other OF’s I have coming up are Reddick, Frazier(really not sure where to classify him defensively), Brett Jackson, Jared Mitchell, and Thomas Neal-roughly in that order(don’t have my list in front of me).

RIP Nick Adenhart

by gatling on Feb 10, 2010 11:03 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Too far away?

Trout and Jackson both started in the Arizona League and finished in the Midwest League this year. Granted, Trout only got 20 PA at the higher level, while Jackson had 128 PA there, but Jackson is also 3 years older. And, Trout did have a .925 OPS at 17 in rookie ball, striking out only once per 6.7 PA, and was named the top prospect in that league.

I realize it’s hard to project anything from rookie ball, and Tate hasn’t even played yet, but it’s not like A ball proves all that much either. All of these guys were just drafted this June. And at the time, Tate was right in the discussion with Ackley in the argument for second best player in this draft, behind Strasburg. And he did get taken 3rd and get the 2nd highest bonus in this draft. Those are clearly the three top talents of 2009. None of those three played in the minors yet, because top talents like that tend to sign at the last minute. Tate, because of the injury, missed the Arizona Fall League, but that’s the only thing that has happened since to really put any space between him and Ackley.

As for the injury itself, it’s a sports hernia. It’s not anything that is going to cause significant long term risks. We are considering pitchers at this point who are coming off TJ surgery. I can’t believe we’re really downgrading Tate this much over a sports hernia.

And Trout seems to be right in the discussion for me in that second tier of guys behind Tate. Probably a bit ahead of Jackson or Mitchell. I’d probably have Revere a bit behind Kalish, but not too much. Kalish has more pop, but Revere gives you more speed and defense, and I’m convinced he will continue to hit.

by acerimusdux on Feb 10, 2010 2:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes too far away

Trout and Tate are both kids just out of high school. They are very far away from the majors and have little to no data to go on. Sure, we could go on draft position or bonus, but how many times do those guys wash out? That’s not a good way to rank prospects in my opinion, but to each their own. I certainly can understand people wanting to rank those kind of guys, but they won’t show up on my list. I’m not too concerned about the Tate injury, maybe somewhat concerned about his maturity level because the ATV accident(you sign a deal for big money, be responsible) but it’s not like I’m dinging him for any of that. I just have an issue ranking guys with no track record and that have so much of their value tied up in projection ahead of guys that have proven what they can do. Maybe they don’t have the same amount of upside, but I’d sacrifice some upside for a higher floor.

Liddi is an interesting case, I certainly don’t see him as a top 100 prospect, and I’m curious why you have him as high as the 60-75 range. He posted a great looking line, but it was inflated by an extremely high and likely unsustainable BABIP, a near 300 point OPS difference between his road numbers and his numbers in the hitters haven that is High Desert, and the huge difference in BB/PA, K/PA, and BB/K in his home vs. road splits. I won’t say it’s completely impossible Liddi’s true talent level is what we saw in his home line, but I think it’s pretty unlikely. I think he’s an interesting prospect and would be in the 101-150 range for me probably, but I’d like to see what he does in AA this year before going higher.

Neal is another guy I’m not huge on, he comes in at #85 on my list. He’s kind of the reverse of Liddi though, played in a pitchers park in the same league, posted a good line at home but was even better on the road. He K’s less and walks more than Liddi. Still, he’s not a guy I’m a big fan of but one I can see having a least a solid MLB career.

As far as all the OF’s go that I mentioned, they’re the only ones on my list that haven’t made our list, besides Tate. Kalish ranks 41st, Reddick 49th(he’s not far off from Michael Saunders ability wise in my book), Jackson 76th, Mitchell 83rd, Neal 85th and Tate 99th. That said, if guys like Liddi and Trout get some vocal support here, I will be more than happy to add them to the tester list.

RIP Nick Adenhart

by gatling on Feb 10, 2010 5:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

And how about Liddi?

Also, not an OF, but Jackson and Mitchell were 20 year olds in A ball, and Neal 21 in high A, but Liddi was a 20 year old in high A who won league MVP, plays a good 3B, very nice power potential, and ranked ahead of Neal on the league list.

He’s in discussion here as well, for me, but probably more in the 60-75 range.

by acerimusdux on Feb 10, 2010 3:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

One thing I forgot above

Comparing ages for HS and college players directly doesn’t work well, the development path is different. ARL gets used to an extreme around here sometimes, and the most often misuse is trying to compare between HS and college players. If we take a guy like Liddi at age 20 in High A and say that is the correct ARL then any college junior that gets drafted would need to start in High A or AA to be on track. That’s a big jump from college ball, which is usually considered what, somewhere between Rookie Ball and Low A? So the fact that Mitchell and Jackson were both 20 in A ball isn’t an issue as they were just drafted. We have college numbers we can look at for them and they should progress along faster than a guy like Trout or Tate. Whether they do or not is a different story, but that is how it should go, the college guys are generally closer to the bigs than a HS kid.

RIP Nick Adenhart

by gatling on Feb 10, 2010 6:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

ARL

I agree on ARL, you don’t put college vs. HS guys on quite the same scale. The college guys at first do have to adjust to pro ball, so are often a year behind initially. But even more importantly, you need to consider each player’s individual actual experience level. In Liddi’s case, he’s an international signing out of Italy and probably saw less high level competition than some of the top US HS kids. So I’m more than happy with where he is in his development right now.

And I’m not complaining at all about college guys being 20 in A ball. I’m just saying the numbers they put up there doesn’t make them much better prospects for me than when they were drafted 8 months ago. The level of competition isn’t enough for them to really prove anything new in a half season. Is there a GM in baseball who wouldn’t still trade either of those guys for Donovan Tate?

On Liddi having “an extremely high and likely unsustainable BABIP”, I’m not seeing it have that big an impact. A good BABIP is one of the stronger indicators you will find for future success if you are looking at A ball numbers. Most of the hitters we have on our list have above average BABIP.

Look at it this way:
BABIP = (H-HR)/(AB-HR-SO+SF)

so for Liddi:
(170-23)/(493-23-122+8) = .413

OK, that’s a high BABIP. But what if we take out doubles and triples as well as HR. Are extra base hits not normally caused by the batter?

(170-23-49)/(493-23-122+8-49) = .319

My point is that a good portion of that “inflation” in BABIP is caused by hitting an xbh every 7.8 PA. League average BABIP for that league is .327, while excluding extra base hits it’s .262. So he’s still about 57 points above average on the singles, but at least some of that is likely attributable to the batter as well. I would guess that if you had Liddi repeat that league, he would still have a true talent BABIP there of better than .360.

And yes, I realize it’s a good hitters environment, but Liddi still has one of the top performances that has ever been put up in that park. And even his road line of .308/.351/.498 is pretty impressive, and easily tops Brett Jackson’s .260/.351/.440. But we also know using road splits and throwing out half the sample is not the proper way to park adjust. His park adjusted OPS there was still .945. If I use the MLE calculator at minorleaguesplits.com, and translate his line to the more pitcher friendly FSL, it’s an .876 OPS (.300/.365/.511), which would have ranked 6th in that league, just behind Yonder Alonso’s .880 (16 months older).

So by no means am I counting on him to be a .345 hitter, but drop that 55 points to .290, and with the power he’s showing, that’s still an impressive bat. Take a look also at his spray chart at minorleaguesplits. He’s using the whole field with power to all fields.

by acerimusdux on Feb 11, 2010 1:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I guess we will have to agree to disagree on Liddi

Without doing a lot of complicated and unnecessary calculations and adjustments, if Liddi hit .290 last year in the same number of AB’s with the same 2B/3B/HR totals, his BABIP would have been about .340 and his translated line to the FSL would result in an .832 OPS. Solid, but not overwhelming in my opinion, since I’m not sold he truly has the power he showed in 2009. Time will tell, but I’ll err on the side of caution with Liddi. To each there own I suppose.

RIP Nick Adenhart

by gatling on Feb 11, 2010 6:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Agree to disagree

Yeah, I really don’t see him hitting only .290 in that environment, I see that more as what he’ll hit in a more neutral spot. Like next year in the Southern League I expect he’ll hit about .290 with an .850 OPS, which will put him in the top 20 in that league, and probably only 1 or 2 of the others will be under age 22 there. But we’ll see.

I’d also like to be more certain of the scouting on him. BA has him a strong defender at 3B, but I see that being called into question a couple of places. And I really don’t trust BA much at all. If it’s not certain he stays at 3B, I do have to drop him. At 1B, he starts to sound a bit too much like Lars Anderson.

At 3B though, an .830-.850 OPS next year would be fine for a guy who will only be 21 in AA, and who still has some power projection.

by acerimusdux on Feb 13, 2010 7:08 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

If he can do that in AA

then it’s time to start considering him in the range you’re talking about. But at this point with only one year of even decent production(and yes, he gets some slack for the special circumstances of his situation) and that production coming in an extreme hitters league and an extreme hitters park within that league, I still don’t think we’ve yet to see an accurate representation of what Liddi is capable of. I don’t think he’s the guy that OPS below 700 two years in a row in the MWL, but I don’t know how much of 2009 was actual improvements on his part and how much was league and park driven. He may well prove he’s worthy of the type of ranking you’re talking about for him now, but he hasn’t earned it yet. Big jump coming up for him, even if he wasn’t going to be young for the league and following a non-typical developmental path based on his situation.

RIP Nick Adenhart

by gatling on Feb 13, 2010 10:35 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I've...

seen LIddi play in person for the last several years at minor league camp and otherwise. I’m a huge, huge Mariners fan, and would like nothing more than to consider him an elite prospect, but he’s just not there yet. Despite his great numbers last year, his plate coverage and batting eye aren’t that good, and I have serious doubts about how his uppercut swing will translate to Double-A.

He needs to keep hitting in Double-A to convince me he’s worthy of top-100 consideration, and I’m as big a Mariner homer as you’ll find around these parts.

by slamcactus on Feb 10, 2010 7:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree, but . . .

Both Withrow and Castro are good choices here imo

by jaroche6 on Feb 10, 2010 12:13 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

I’ve got Castro then Withrow, in fact I think I have a bunch of Dodgers coming soon.

by byronlhsdrmr on Feb 10, 2010 2:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not

excited by really any of these names…

by hybrid on Feb 10, 2010 6:34 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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