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Around SBN: Beyond The Boxscore's Week 17 MLB Power Rankings

Prospect Retro: Josh Johnson

The Rockies and the Marlins entered the National League together back in 1993. The Rockies have Ubaldo Jimenez as a possible Cy Young contender in the coming years, and the Marlins have Josh Johnson.

Star-divide

 Josh Johnson was drafted by the Florida Marlins in the fourth round of the 2002 draft, out of high school in Jenks, Oklahoma. Tall and projectable at 6-7, 215, he was erratic in high school, throwing 90-92 MPH at his best, but sometimes working in just the 85-87 range. He also needed to improve his breaking ball and changeup. Considered a first-round talent six months before the draft, his stock dropped due to an erratic spring and a University of Oklahoma scholarship. He signed late and got into just 15 innings in the Gulf Coast League, posting an 11/3 K/BB with a 0.60 ERA. I didn't put him in the 2003 book, but if I had I would have rated him a Grade C prospect.

Johnson was limited to 82 innings for Greensboro in the Sally League in 2003 due to shoulder and hip injuries. He pitched okay, posting a 3.61 ERA but with a 59/29 K/BB in 82 innings; his K/IP ratio was weak for the Sally League that year, and his fastball had just mediocre velocity most of the season. I gave him a Grade C in the 2004 book, writing that "nothing really stands out about him, but there is potential."

More shoulder issues limited Johnson to 22 starts and 114 innings for Class A Jupiter in 2004. He posted a 5-12 record, but a 3.46 ERA with a 103/48 K/BB in 114 innings, allowing 124 hits. His K/IP ratio improved thanks to sharpening of his breaking ball and changeup, and he was starting to get noticed for the quality of his sinking fastball, though his velocity remained just average. I gave him a Grade C+ in the 2005 book, writing that "if he avoids the doctors, a breakthrough in '05 is quite possible."

Moved up to Double-A Carolina for 2005, Johnson went 12-4, 3.87 with a 113/50 K/BB in 140 innings, allowing 139 hits. His fastball bumped up a notch into the low 90s, and he transitioned well to Double-A, even avoiding the shoulder problems which nagged him the past two seasons. He got a brief major league exposure with the Marlins that September. In the '06 book, I wrote that Johnson probably needed some Triple-A time and that his average component ratios, even with his good surface stats, were a caution flag. I gave him a Grade B- in the '06 book, stating "there is a lot to like here, but also some things to be careful about."

The Marlins ignored my advice and Johnson spent all of 2006 in the majors, pitching very well, going 12-7, 3.10 with a 133/68 K/BB in 157 innings, 136 hits allowed, a very successful rookie campaign. However, the injury bug struck in 2007. Although it was the shoulder that bothered him in the minors, in '07 his elbow gave out, necessitating Tommy John surgery. He came back extremely quickly in 2008 and went 7-1, 3.61 with a 77/27 K/BB in 87 innings. As you know, last year he went 15-5, 3.23 with a 191/58 K/BB in 209 innings, allowing 184 hits. Last year's performance was better than anything he'd done in the minors, and it earned him a fat contract this off-season.

Johnson throws harder now: 92-98 last year according to fangraphs, averaging almost 95 MPH. This is about eight MPH harder than he threw in the lower minors, making him a textbook example of a "projectable" pitcher gaining velocity as he matures physically. His slider is his main second pitch; he uses his changeup a bit less than five percent of the time. Fangraphs rates all of his pitches as above average, and he picks up a lot of grounders to go with the strong strikeout rate.

Comparable pitchers through age 25 include Rich Harden, Doc Medich, Jered Weaver, Joey Hamilton, and Chan Ho Park according to Sim Scores. I apologize for not mentioning the new 2010 PECOTA comps, but my ancient computer won't open the downloadable PECOTA files for some reason and BP doesn't have the on-line player cards up yet. 2009 PECOTA comps included Jim Beattie, Carl Pavano, Jim Lonborg, Brad Penny, Danny Haren, Matt Morris, John Lackey, and Roy Halladay.

My main concern for Johnson going forward is the possibility that the shoulder problems he had in the minors may recur. If he avoids injury and gets proper support from teammates, Johnson has the ability to be a Cy Young contender in the coming years along with Ubaldo Jimenez. Not bad for a guy who never really dominated in the minors. This is another example of how Grade C pitching prospects at the lower levels can sometimes develop into something very interesting.

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Comments

Display:

Comparison

John,

How would you rank Johnson compared to guys like Ubaldo and other young starters, like Kershaw, Billingsley, and Gallardo?

by RM on Feb 9, 2010 1:12 PM EST reply actions  

I like all of these guys pretty evenly. If I had to put them in order I;d say

Gallardo
Jimenez
Johnson
Billingsley
Kershaw

by hrv1978 on Feb 9, 2010 1:25 PM EST up reply actions  

I did say I like them pretty evenly.

by hrv1978 on Feb 9, 2010 7:36 PM EST up reply actions  

fair enough..

Just curious, was there any reason of the way you listed them or were they that even in your eyes that it didnt matter?

by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Feb 9, 2010 7:58 PM EST up reply actions  

johnson

hmmm..

I like Ubaldo better than Johnson because I think his injury risk is lower. But I also love Gallardo and Kershaw. Hell I love Billingsley too.

It’s close but I think i’d go Ubaldo, Gallardo, Kershaw, Johnson, Billingsley.

by John Sickels on Feb 9, 2010 2:02 PM EST up reply actions  

I really love Logan White

He drafted both Billingsley and Kershaw and now they are in the same rotation, for a long time… :)

by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Feb 9, 2010 7:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Little typo?

“Although it was his shoulder that gave him problems…”

That’s supposed to be “wasn’t” right?

Regardless, a very good read. I really enjoy these prospect retros. It’s great to see where the better players of today started. We often forget that some players were never heralded to be the guy they turn out to be. Who thought Joe Mauer would ever have a season like his 2009 season even though he was a top prospect?

Finally, how would you compare Brett Anderson to Johnson?

by nobodyinparticular on Feb 9, 2010 3:46 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

Not a typo...

He says it was his shoulder that gave him problems in the minors….but it was his elbow in the majors.

by BobbyS on Feb 9, 2010 4:14 PM EST up reply actions  

I see...

That’s what I get for reading and replying on my iPhone…

Well I feel like an idiot.

by nobodyinparticular on Feb 10, 2010 12:07 PM EST up reply actions  

What an underwhelming statistical profile in the minors.

Really one of those cases where a guy just picked up overtime, it seems. I wonder if Bryan Berglund, a guy who kind of reminds me of Johnson back then, is a similar type.

by WrenFGun on Feb 9, 2010 6:14 PM EST reply actions  

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