Community Prospect #51

I’m really not sold on his potential for even average power. He strikes out an awful lot for someone without present power to all fields. Love the frame, the tools, and the defense, but whereas plus power + plus contact makes for a damned good prospect, weak contact and below-average power is a troubling combination of weaknesses for me. If he’s still k-ing in ~35% of his at-bats come this spring, he better be hitting more than a few balls over the fence for me to believe in him as a high ceiling guy.

He’s intriguing, and a solid prospect for sure, but I don’t agree that his upside is better than anyone listed here.

much more advanced bat? I’m no big fan of Cardenas anymore (admittedly, was really high on him, superbly high a couple years back), and I agree, he’s back end top 100 if he makes it on … but much?

I can’t agree with your Ellis Comp. I think it’s selling Cardenas short on the offensive side of things. Ellis never showed quite the hitting ability that Cardenas has shown thus far in the minors, especially when you take age vs level into consideration. Also, although Cardenas will never be a power threat I think it’s much too early in his career to say he has less power then Ellis. Ellis played almost his entire age 23 season in high A posting a .302/.404/.411 line in 484 AB’s, had a short stint in AA then went on to AAA at 24 and posted a .273/.351/.417 line. Cardenas was in high A ball during his age 20 season, posting a .307/.371/.441 line in the FSL over 261 AB’s then struggled in the short stint in Stockton after the trade (.630 OPS). In AA last year, at 21 years old, the guy posted a .326/.392/.446 line over 325 AB’s. He’s likely going to reach the majors about 3 years younger then Ellis did and with a very similar MiLB career batting line. Also, aside from his flukeish 2007 season where he hit 19 HR’s, Ellis has never hit more then 13 in a season. I really don’t see those power totals being out of reach for Cardenas, only Cardenas will likely have a much better BA and more doubles to go along with it. Ellis obviously has the edge on defense, but I think Cardenas projects to be a much better hitter at the MLB level.

I don’t think Cardenas belongs on at this point, but I think people are way too down on him considering how good his season was last year. He tore up AA at a young age, and although he struggled during his first stint in AAA he was much, much better then 2nd time around, at an age where most guys are only in A or A+ ball. A 2nd baseman with average defense and a .300/.370/.440 type bat is a very valuable player, and that’s what I see Cardenas as. Not considering him in the top 80-90 at this point is just wrong IMO.

He can hit, and even if his power doesn’t improve I think he could still produce a line similar to what he did at Midland in the majors. And his power could improve a little. He hit 9 homers at 19 at Lakewood in the Sally. He could eventually get to double digits.