Carlos Gonzalez

by rdf8585 on Feb 6, 2010 9:08 PM EST Comment 23 comments

What do people think of him going forward?

He was always highly regarded as a prospect, but scuffled badly in 2008 as a rookie with Oakland. Then he was dealt to Colorado, his third organization in as many years, and he tore up AAA with a 1048 OPS with a 22-32 BB-K in 192 AB. Upon promotion to Colorado, he initially struggled but mashed as the season wore on, posting a 992 OPS over his final 200 AB of the year. He added in 16 steals (in 20 attempts) in his 278 major league at bats last year.

Now 24, he is getting a lot of hype heading into 2010 and beyond. Nobody has ever doubted the tools.

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cargo

i expect him to actually have similar numbers to carlos beltran this season. both will probably be missing about the same amount of time ( beltran to injury and cargo to a crowded rockie outfield). best case, is if hawpe gets traded, that would open up RF for full time duty where i expect him to stay long term. despite what UZR says in a one season sample, i believe Fowler is the better defender in center. I believe most scouts would agree also.

by giantdonkey on Feb 6, 2010 10:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

playtime time

Concerns about playing time may be overblown at least if you believe this:

http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=7151341

FFD to 1:55 in.

by rdf8585 on Feb 6, 2010 10:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

thanks

that does make sense that he should be playing ahead of seth smith

by giantdonkey on Feb 6, 2010 10:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Was just going to say....

CarGo could definitely be the next Beltran.

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by Frederick0220 on Feb 7, 2010 3:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not really.

If Beltran didn’t hurt himself so much, he’d have a good chance at the Hall of Fame. He’s an elite hitter, a very good defensive center fielder, and one of the best basestealers in baseball history.

Gonzalez doesn’t have the defense, discipline (though he could develop it, as Beltran did), or speed/baserunning ability to be Carlos Beltran.

by PissedMick on Feb 7, 2010 8:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Car-Go had an 878 OPS last year, his second year in the bigs. Beltran didn’t have a season with an OPS that high until his sixth year.

by rdf8585 on Feb 7, 2010 11:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

just focusing on offensive ability

… i would be curious to see where people rate Gonzalez among other young OFers such as Maybin, Rasmus, A.Jones, McCutchen.

by rdf8585 on Feb 7, 2010 11:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That's tough.

CarGo and Cutch underperformed in the minors.

Granted, McCutchen always had a ridiculous ARL.

I will still take Rasmus and Cutch over CarGo by a smidgen.

Jones and Maybin are trailing the pack, with Maybin bringing up the rear.

I’m not sure he’s ever going to figure it out.

Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.

by Frederick0220 on Feb 7, 2010 3:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't disagree with taking Rasmus or Cutch over Cargo,

but how can you say you’d take Cargo over Adam Jones? I can understand Maybin as he really hasn’t developed as one would hope, but taking Jones over Cargo is an easy call for me.

I’d probably rank them as McCutchen, Jones, Rasmus, Gonzalez, and Maybin. I could even make a case for making Jones #1.

"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree

by JT12340 on Feb 7, 2010 5:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Why so high on Pacman......

I like Jones, but I can’t think of anything that would lead me to place him ahead of Rasmus and Cargo………especially Rasmus.

Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.

by Frederick0220 on Feb 7, 2010 6:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Jones,

he’s more of a proven commodity. He’s shown he can hit, run, and defend at the MLB level and looked like a future star prior to the nagging injuries. The fact of the matter is, is that he looked so much better than Rasmus and Cargo in his second full season that saying he’s the 4th best of the group is kind of absurd.

"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree

by JT12340 on Feb 7, 2010 9:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Jones & Gonzalez

Look it up… Gonzalez in 2009 was a better hitter & better defender than Jones. He even had a better WAR (2.4-2.1) in 200 less PA, albeit that’s based a lot on defensive metrics that I’m not sure I trust yet. Still, considering the playing time difference, it’s telling that it’s even close.

Jones is a good young player, but I think sometimes his Web Gems are overstating how good he is. I think Gonzalez is at least as good as him now and has just as much of a future.

by jc3 on Feb 7, 2010 11:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

huge defensive responsibilities from CF to LF

Carlos Gonzalez WAR is primarily from LF. LF is a considerably easier position to play than CF. It’s comparing apples to oranges… I get that Cargo can play a passable CF, but he’s probably suited for a corner OF spot.

I also did my research and saw that Cargo played some CF, but mostly played on the corners.

"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree

by JT12340 on Feb 8, 2010 3:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

By the way,

Jones’s WAR according to baseball projection was 2.5 to Cargo’s 2.4. Jones was also favored in RAR 25-21. With Cargo’s limited playing time and situational starts, I would imagine that played into Gonzalez’s favor. Granted Gonzalez played more in LF than CF, but made 38 starts in CF (mostly due to Fowler’s injury). If not for Cargo’s hot streak (he was literally on fire when he was playing for the ROX) I think he settles somewhere below that of Jones over the course of the year.

http://www.baseballprojection.com/war/j/jonea003.htm

http://www.baseballprojection.com/war/g/gonzc001.htm

"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree

by JT12340 on Feb 8, 2010 3:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Points

- As was stated below, WAR takes into account position
- Also as was stated below, Gonzalez has put up significantly better defensive numbers in CF than Jones, albeit SSS plays a part in the analysis there.
- IMO, you are either overrating Jones or underrating Gonzalez because there is no empirical evidence that Jones is a superior player in any facet of the game. The only meaningful stat I saw that Jones was better than Gonzalez in 2009 was K% and Gonzalez’ better BB% basically counteracted that statistic.
- Besides all of the statistical evidence, there’s also an argument to be made that Gonzalez was considered a better prospect tools-wise based on BA rankings:

’06: Gonzalez 32, Jones 64
’07: Gonzalez 18, Jones 28
’08: Gonzalez 22, Jones ineligible

This is not all to mean that Jones won’t have a better career than Gonzalez… it just means that I don’t see where the evidence is that he “looked so much better” than Gonzalez.

by jc3 on Feb 8, 2010 5:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The point is

is that WAR accounted for Gonzalez’s time in LF as well as RF and CF. The WAR is skewed a bit. As for hitting, Gonzalez was playing based on match ups and injury, furthering the advantage towards him with the bat.

As for quoting “he looked so much better,” he played better than Cargon, played through injury (leading to his slump), and plays in a tougher division. Apparently, using WAR and RAR don’t suggest he’s a better player at all (sarcasm).

The point of the post is that Jones has more games played, thus more data. Gonzalez has yet to start consistently or make a niche for himself as a player at a steady position. UZR is too subjective to use for such a small sample size, so I can’t argue that (responding to nyy601), but at the same time, I’m not a fan of using UZR.

"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree

by JT12340 on Feb 8, 2010 11:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

CarGo can only play a passable CF?

His career UZR/150 in 112 games in CF is 12.8

Jones’ career UZR/150 in in 280 games in CF is 2.8

Small sample size, but still.

by nyy601 on Feb 8, 2010 10:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

WAR accounts for the ease of a position a player plays...

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by PaulThomas on Feb 8, 2010 2:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That's where the "Replacement" comes in.

by PissedMick on Feb 8, 2010 3:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

PT

I don’t buy too much into him losing much PT, if purely just for his defense. He can play any position in the OF, that alone will help him stay in the line up most days. As far as defense in CF, I think Fowler has the greatest potential but it’s possible Cargo gets better reads/jumps right now. Personally I don’t watch the Rockies enough to really say if the UZR’s really match up with how the fans felt.

by hybrid on Feb 6, 2010 11:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Tracy

With Tracy, CGonzalez should start 6 of every 7 games, and probably be a defensive sub in the others. Line-ups I can see (from most to least often):

Gonz – LF, Fowler – CF, Hawpe – RF
Smith – LF, Gonz – CF, Hawpe – RF
Smith – LF, Fowler – CF, Hawpe – RF
Smith – LF, Fowler – CF, Gonz – RF, Hawpe – 1B
Smith – LF, Fowler – CF, Gonz -RF
Any of the above with Spilly getting a day in CF or LF…

by DodgersBacktoBrooklyn2011 on Feb 8, 2010 1:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs