All Questions Answered Thread
by John Sickels on Feb 5, 2010 1:29 PM EST
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PrintHere is an All Questions Answered Thread. Comments are now closed, but thanks to everyone who participated. I also got some good fodder for future articles here.
GROUND RULES
1) Only one question per poster please.
2) Please try not to ask questions like "rank these 50 players in order"
3) I am still dealing with Jeri being sick, so it will take me time to work through the questions. Please be patient.
Jeri is feeling somewhat better and I hope to be fully operational Saturday. I was involved in two seperate and unrelated car accidents today, and that kind of ruined my day and kept me from working on this until now.
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2010 Draft
From what you’ve seen, can you give a preliminary top 5 for this year’s class?
draft
I’ll be honest here, I’ve been so focused on getting the book done and shipped out that I haven’t focused much on the 2010 draft. I usually start that process in February. My top names would be pretty much the same as everyone’s at this point…Harper, Taillon, Ranaudo, Workman, Cole, Pomeranz, Colon, etc. Two guys that I think could see their stocks rise quickly are RHP Kyle Blair at San Diego and OF Kevin Keyes of Texas.
Keyes had to move to first base.
Both to make room in the lineup and because he ballooned up in weight (in a bad way). His hitting will have to be elite this year, because there are big doubts about his athleticism.
keyes
When I saw him play last spring he looked pretty athletic to me. It’s still in there…if he can lay off the cheeseburgers maybe he can get it back.
by John Sickels on Feb 5, 2010 10:22 PM EST up reply actions
Jason Cole says that he's back in RF
@HornsBaseball The Kevin Keyes experiment at 1st appears to be over. He’s in right and arm looks improved. Tant Shepherd at first now.
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Feb 6, 2010 12:16 AM EST up reply actions
fail
@HornsBaseball The Kevin Keyes experiment at 1st appears to be over. He’s in right and arm looks improved. Tant Shepherd at first now.
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Feb 6, 2010 12:17 AM EST up reply actions
yes
Yes. If it was me, I’d use him as a long reliever/spot starter in the Earl Weaver mode. The Twins did that with Johan Santana and it helped him a lot.
long reliever/spot starter?
Why not utilize him more effectively as a late inning shut down guy? Or do you feel that would be going to far toward making him a reliever permanently?
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
felz
well if you want to develop him as a starter, then I think the long-relief/spot starter role is a necessary step in development. If they want to use him as a closer, then using him in short/middle relief as a prep makes sense. I was assuming they want to go the starter route.
Anthony Gose
Do you see him developing enough of a bat to be a starting OFer?
The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.
gose
Well it’s possible but it is far from a sure thing. It’s probably 50/50 that he hits enough to be a regular. We’ll know more with another year of data.
What grades would the follow players get if they were still prospects
Matt Wieters
Nolan Reimold
Chris Tillman
David Hernandez
Brad Bergesen
Interesting
Why is Tillman only a B? He dominated AAA as a 21 year old. Is it because of his bad MLB stint?
by Jordan Tuwiner on Feb 5, 2010 10:40 PM EST up reply actions
yeah
Yeah, but remember “only” a B is kind of misleading…B’s a strong grade. But the major league stint does count. That’s why it is hard to compare guys who have played past the rookie cutoff with guys who haven’t.
by John Sickels on Feb 5, 2010 10:52 PM EST up reply actions
ROY
I hate questions like that because the answers are always wrong. I’ll say Wade Davis and Buster Posey.
Price, Feliz, Matusz, or Anderson?
John, which of these has the best long term future as a starter?
hmm
hmm..
well I like all those guys. Anderson has proven the most at the major league level. I’d say Anderson, Feliz, Matusz, Price.
Why are you so down on Price?
Just a year or so ago Price was a top prospect in your book, and in the 2010 book you said he’s doing fine. What’s changed in a year?
by RM on Feb 5, 2010 10:19 PM EST up reply actions
price
If Price was still a prospect, he’d still be a top 10 guy.
by John Sickels on Feb 5, 2010 10:20 PM EST up reply actions
Hanson
Thanks John. Where would you rank Hanson in that group? Above Anderson and Feliz?
by RM on Feb 5, 2010 10:21 PM EST up reply actions
hanson
Hanson would be right there with Anderson maybe ahead of him.
by John Sickels on Feb 5, 2010 10:23 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
A Ball Arms
How do you feel about the upside/ceiling of these guys, just your personal opinion, not what other scouts have said? Thanks
Jordan Lyles
Matt Moore
Casey Crosby
Trevor May
Simon Castro
Wilmer Font
Of the Rockies MiLB pitchers, who will have the best career?
Tyler Matzek
Jhoulys Chacin
Christian Freidrich
Other?
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
apples
Some apples/oranges stuff there since Matzek hasn’t pitched yet.
I’d say Friedrich, Matzek, Chacin. But it is hard to do that one without any pro data from Matzek.
by John Sickels on Feb 5, 2010 10:00 PM EST up reply actions
Justin Smoak
When do you believe Justin Smoak will be ready to step into the Rangers’ lineup as an everyday player and contribute?
smoak
I believe he will be ready by the middle of July at the latest. When he actually GETS the opportunity, I don’t know. Maybe Jamey Newberg knows.
by John Sickels on Feb 5, 2010 10:01 PM EST up reply actions
My guess on Smoak
Is that he’ll get his feet wet if and when Vlad hits the DL a time or two. He’s not ready now but will be by mid-season.
by Jamey Newberg on Feb 6, 2010 8:56 AM EST up reply actions
Centerfield Sleeper?
I need some CF depth on my team. Can you toss out some sleepers you feel good about?
TJ Steele (HOU)
You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220
by Mets2k9 on Feb 5, 2010 4:26 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
hmm
Well, without knowing more about your time horizon it is hard to say. Steele suggested by Mets2K9 below is a good choice as a sleeper. I’d strongly recommend Ryan Westmoreland and Aaron Hicks if they are available and if your time horizon extends beyond this year. Jared Mitchell, same deal.
by John Sickels on Feb 5, 2010 10:02 PM EST up reply actions
Everth Cabrera
What grade would you give him if he were still a prospect? How would you compare him to Dee Gordon, and who would you rather have?
cabrera
I think I’d give him a B after what he did last year. Long-term I think Gordon is a more electric player, but he’s much rawer obviously. Who would I rather have depends on the circumstances…for 2010 and 2011 Cabrera, but if my time horizon extends beyond that I’d go with Gordon.
by John Sickels on Feb 5, 2010 10:03 PM EST up reply actions
Lonnie Chisenhall ...
Future star (prime-Nomar-esque at 3B) or future regular (Tim Wallach-esque)?
Paul Householder, Gary Redus, Tommy Lawless, Duane Walker ... prospects rawk!
prime nomar???
give me a break. prime nomar was pretty amazing.
by auclairkeithbc on Feb 5, 2010 10:05 PM EST up reply actions
lonnie
Definitely more Wallach than Nomar.
I think Chisenhall will be a very good player and has borderline star potenital, but he’s not going to be Nomar. Nomar at his peak was a Hall of Fame talent, and Lonnie won’t be that.
by John Sickels on Feb 5, 2010 10:07 PM EST up reply actions
Deolis Guerra
was pretty pedestrian for most of the year, but he randomly threw a couple of ridiculous games in AA this season:
7/23 – 7ip, 4h, 12k, 1bb against the BOS affiliate
8/14 – 6ip, 0h, 9k, 3bb against the CLE affiliate.
Were these more a result of him having a few good days where everything was clicking, or the opposing lineup having bad ones?
deolis
Well…..the good games show that the potential is still in there somewhere, but the good games are still outnumbered by the bad and mediocre games. Unfortunately there are many pitchers who flash potential but who never put it together consistently. Guerra still has a chance given his age, but I don’t see any reason for excessive optimism.
by John Sickels on Feb 5, 2010 10:10 PM EST up reply actions
mechanics
I just joined recently so if you’ve gone over this recently, I apologize. In your evaluations, how much stock do you put in the so-called “inverted W”?
eh.
Eh…..i’m not trying to dodge the question but I’m agnostic about the “inverted W” thing and want to see more evidence. I’m not saying it’s BS, I just haven’t studied the issue enough to know.
There is a lot of disagreement out there among people who have studied mechanics more than I have about what is good and what is bad. I’ll admit that I don’t think there is a holy grail on this. There are some pitchers with “perfect mechanics” who get hurt, and some with bad mechanics who don’t.
by John Sickels on Feb 5, 2010 10:14 PM EST up reply actions
Joba
Do you think he should get an opportunity to start the season in the rotation now that all the restrictions and limits are removed? He really hasn’t been given a fair chance to succeed as a starter. People keep saying his stuff is better in the bullpen. In my opinion, that can be said for almost all pitchers. Personally, I think the Yankees should give him a legitimate chance as a starter, if he struggles, then they won’t have to answer the ‘what if’ question. Furthermore, Joba is better suited for the starters role over Hughes. Joba pitched over 160 IP last year and is on target to be ready for 180-200. Hughes only thew around 90 IP, thus he can only be counted on 120-140 at the most.
I would love your thoughts on this.
JOSH THOLE > carlos santana
joba
I’d give him another chance to start. If he sucks at it, then make him a full-time reliever in ‘11 and Rivera’s successor as closer. But I think he’s shown enough to earn another chance.
by John Sickels on Feb 5, 2010 10:18 PM EST up reply actions
Josh Bell
Do you see Bell stepping foot in Camden Yards this season as more than a spectator? If so, in what role?
bell
I’d say he comes up in late July and plays regularly the rest of the year.
by John Sickels on Feb 5, 2010 10:21 PM EST up reply actions
Life
What is the meaning of life?
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Feb 5, 2010 2:03 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I loved that whole series.
Been years since I read them. I did see parts of the BBC series. Specifically, the answer to the question of the meaning of life.
Your 2009 Snow Monkey Ambassador
Get back to you after I listen to some Pink Floyd
/John Sickels.
Freude, schoener Goetterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.
floyd
I’m on a Hole/Courtney Love kick right now. I think she’s just amazingly talented…frankly I think Live Through This is better than anything Nirvana never did….Cobain was brilliant but musically it always sounded to me like Nirvana’s instruments were out of tune. Hole has that same grungy edge but with more melodic structures, and Courtney’s voice is just amazing.
Too bad she destroyed herself with drugs.
by John Sickels on Feb 5, 2010 10:26 PM EST up reply actions
Courtney Love could have used some time in the bullpen
I love Hole, too bad she burnt out so quickly
BTW, catch her breathing on the vocals on Live Through This. She sounds like Wilford Brimley with a head cold.
by slacker george on Feb 5, 2010 11:44 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Love/Cobain
It was rumored that Cobain wrote several of the songs on Live Through This, which might explain why Love was never able to match that success
rumor
I don’t think there is any evidence to support this rumor.
by John Sickels on Feb 6, 2010 12:37 PM EST up reply actions
life
The purpose of life is to be as loving as possible, and to ease as much pain and suffering as you can among your fellow humans and other sentient beings.
by John Sickels on Feb 5, 2010 10:27 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
/Thich Nhat Hanh
'Waiting for a girl and she gets me into fights
Waiting for a girl we get drunk on Friday night'
sentient beings
do you mean aliens but not chimps? chimps but not mice? mice but not ants? ants but not plants? plants but not rocks?
by auclairkeithbc on Feb 6, 2010 12:34 PM EST up reply actions
sentient
Oh, that’s a kettle of fish, no pun intended….have to get into a big discussion of the nature of consiousness to explore that one.
I had in mind animal forms such as dolphins, dogs, cats, the great apes, etc. If I really had the courage of my convictions I’d become a vegetarian, but right now I’m still too much enmeshed in my food passions I guess.
Space aliens….sure. They no doubt exist somewhere.
by John Sickels on Feb 6, 2010 12:40 PM EST up reply actions
Brent Morel
Based on the acquisiton of Mark Teahen, do you see Morel being used as a trade piece in the future by Kenny Williams? Or do you see any type of situtation where he might actually receive significant playing time w/ Teahen, Alexei, Becham, and Nix ahead of him?
Thanks for your time.
sox
I’ve given up predicting what Kenny Williams will do.
I like Morel as a prospect and, while Teahen has his uses, if Morel develops to his maximum potenital I don’t think Mark is going to be good enough to block him.
by John Sickels on Feb 5, 2010 10:29 PM EST up reply actions
What do you think will become of Ethan Hollingsworth and Joe Benson?
"A brief but trenchant analysis of Scott Podsednik
He’s dogshit."
by NYRoyal on Jan 8, 2010 8:56 AM PST
ill
Two illinois questions.
Hollingsworth is a strike-thrower but is a Grade C guy with marginal chances, maybe turns into a fifth starter or reliever at best. Benson has a chance to be a regular outfielder still if he makes further progress with the strike zone.
by John Sickels on Feb 5, 2010 10:36 PM EST up reply actions
agreed
that will be interesting
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Feb 5, 2010 9:39 PM EST up reply actions
lefties
that would be a good smackdown piece. It would be close. My intiial reaction was Elbert, but to answer it fully I’d have to go through the stats and the pitchfx data.
by John Sickels on Feb 5, 2010 10:40 PM EST up reply actions
Rome & MB
Atlanta seems to have a significant pitching depth in the low minors. Your thoughts as to who are the starting 5 in Rome and Myrtle Beach?
by CabreraluvsBelinda on Feb 5, 2010 2:09 PM EST reply actions
piece
That’s a good idea for a larger piece. I will put that on my schedule for next week.
by John Sickels on Feb 5, 2010 10:46 PM EST up reply actions
Dom Brown
If the Phillies let Jayson Werth walk as a free agent after this season is Dom Brown going to be ready to step in to replace him or do you expect him to need some more development time?
brown
I’m a big Domonic Brown fan but he needs another year and a half in the minors before being ready. If he has a really strong ‘10 maybe he’ll be ready on opening day ‘11 but I think it more likely that he’ll need a little extra time.
by John Sickels on Feb 5, 2010 10:49 PM EST up reply actions
Phils OFs
Which of the Phillies young toolsy OFs not named Dom Brown has the best chance of becoming an all-star caliber major leaguer – Gillies, Gose, Collier or Santana – and why?
phils
Well frankly I think there is a high risk that all of them could bust.
Gillies is closest to being ready but he’s at year away at least and his upside isn’t as good as the others. However, he’s more polished. Gose would be second. Santana has the most power potential but has some strike zone/contact issues to work through.
by John Sickels on Feb 5, 2010 10:51 PM EST up reply actions
Lee
Hmm….best case, .300 hitter with high OBP, lots of doubles, 10-15 homers, stellar glove.
by John Sickels on Feb 5, 2010 10:54 PM EST up reply actions
Starlin Castro's power
How many homers do you think he can hit on average in a season?
castro
Hard to project given how young he is, but I could see him as a 10-15 guy eventually.
by John Sickels on Feb 5, 2010 10:58 PM EST up reply actions
Not A Prospect Players
What grade would you give these 2 players, if they still qualified as prospects:
Vin Mazzaro
Wade LeBlanc
quitting
Quitting for the night. Will work on the rest of these questions tomorrow. It’s been a rough day.
by John Sickels on Feb 5, 2010 11:00 PM EST up reply actions
Alexei Ogando and Omar Beltre.
It sounds like they’ll be in the U.S. sooner rather than later; what kind of impact, if any, do you think they can have for the Rangers (or at least the Texas system)?
"Don’t want to spend my night waiting in line unless it’s for more beer."
--EssBee, on LoneStarBall, Jan. 21, 2010
excellent
Neftali Feliz says sit your 5 dollar ass down before he makes change...
Hi, Keith. Is this the year Edinson Volquez finally wins RoY?
no idea
I really have no idea. The Rangers system is loaded enough that they can ease these guys back in without being tempted to rush them too fast. If I was me, i’d start them both off in High-A and see how it goes.
by John Sickels on Feb 6, 2010 12:41 PM EST up reply actions
Chris Withrow
What would you say his ceiling in the MLB is, and where he might be on the 2011 Top 100 Prospects list?
withrow
Well Withrow is already highly-rated, he’s number 12 on my pitching prospect list. He could get into the top ten next year if he continues to develop. He has borderline number one/strong number two potential, though whether he reaches that or not is of course uncertain. But that’s the ceiling we’re talking about.
by John Sickels on Feb 6, 2010 12:43 PM EST up reply actions
Florida's rotation
The Marlins have a glut of young starters. After Johnson, Nolasco and Sanchez the rotation seems like a big fat question mark (Volstad, Miller, Vanden Hurk, West, Tucker). If they’re to contend for the playoffs this year I find it essential that they find the right mix. Who do you think will lock down the 4 and 5 spots before the end of the year for the Marlins and how well do you think they’ll perform?
marlins
Eh….i assume that Volstad and Miller will get the first chances, but i’m not a big volstead guy really and I think West and Tucker have a higher ceiling. I think they all project as league-average pitchers at this point, with the potential to get beyond that in later years although probably not in ’10
Carlos Santana
How worried should I be about Carlos Santana’s wrist injury in regards to his power production for this upcoming season? Or his defensive abilities (which, in turn, could keep him out of the lineup, and prevent him from putting up offensive numbers)? Cheers!
santana
I love Santana and I don’t think Marson will stand in his way long-term. I can’t predict the wrist injury, not being privy to any actual medical reports. Wrist stuff can hamper offensive production obviously. I wouldn’t worry about it in the medium and long-terms, but in the short term it makes it more likely for Marson to get 400 ab this year while Santana goes to Triple-A to prove his wrist is OK
B- position players
Which five position players that you ranked as B- in this year’s Prospect Book are most likely to be in your top-50 next year?
B-
Some names, in no particular order
Marc Krauss, Brent Morel, Kentrail Davis, Robert Stock, Edinson Rincon, Tim Beckham
Martin Perez
Seeing how incredibly quick Perez has moved up in the Rangers farm system at such young an age, where do you think he’ll end up finishing the year at? A full year in AA? A bump up to OKC? Maybe even a MLB appearance when the roster expands?
"grilled cheese punches like a bitch" -Gdawg
"i feel like k-rod after a save." -by reagan on Jan 23, 2010, that glorious day Hicks was out of our lives.
perez
Well I wouldn’t have promoted him to Double-A in the first place.
But given that they did, My guess is that he begins ’10 back in Double-A, moves up to Triple-A at midseason, then could see the majors in September.
Jed Lowrie
I know yoiu were high on him a few years ago, but how about now. Does he have a future as a starter in the bigs in the next few years?
jed
I was really really high on him, but the injuries last year just wiped him out. I have no idea what his future looks like now. We have to see if he’s healthy, and he may not get a chance in Boston even if he is.
Fantasy minor league draft
who do you draft out of Dee Gordon, Starlin Castro, Jaff Decker, Aroldis Chapman, Derek Norris or FMart, and why? I have the #2 pick in my MLD draft, assuming Strasburg goes #1.
raygu
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com
draft
well all of them would be strong choices.
Chapman has the highest ceiling but also a lot of risk given how little we know about him. If you need help short term, go with F-Mart. Long term, I’d look at Norris, Castro, and Gordon ahead of Jaff. I love Jaff, but it is easier to find outfielders who can hit than shortstops or catchers.
brito
grade C prospect, bat looks interesting but he was old for rookie ball, glove needs a lot of work.
Max Ramirez's future:
Starting DH, emergency C?
AAAA?
Sumpin else?
Neftali Feliz says sit your 5 dollar ass down before he makes change...
Hi, Keith. Is this the year Edinson Volquez finally wins RoY?
The Ranger prospect not enough people are talking about is....?
"When you play happy, good things will happen"-Elvis Andrus
rangers
this is impossible to answer since the rangers fans who hang around here are usually 120 players deep in their knowledge of the system.
I’ll say that I think people are too far down on Kasey Kiker.
Bumgarners drop in velocity
Is there any chance that last years drop in velocity was by design? Everything I’ve read about it has been negative. I’d like to know if there is any positive spin you could put on it.
Logan Morrison
I know there are questions about his power ceiling, but given his OBP and contact skills, does putting a 300/400/500 line on him seem too high? Too low?
Projection
John, what do you project for: OBP, HR, OPS in 2010 and what do you think his career ceiling is?
by Blue Wrecking Crew on Feb 6, 2010 12:19 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
logan
Another injury guy, his wrist hampered his power last year.
Ceiling would be a .300/.400/.500 player yes, that would be his ceiling. Floor would be .260/.340/.440.
legit
Given that his makeup concerns include an assault charge, I think it is definitely something to be worried about. That goes beyond the normal makeup issues you hear about.
That said, he’s still young and people CAN change. I understand why the Royals dumped him, but I also understand why the Rangers picked him up. Maybe the change of scenery will wake him up.
Stomly Pimentel
average low 90’s fastball, plus change, developing curve, plus control but gave up too many hits in ’09
is his future in the back of the rotation or the front of it? i know a lot of it depends on whether he adds a bit more giddy up to his fastball or not, but i’d love to hear your thoughts! thanks!
stolmy
ceiling number three starter, not that there’s anything wrong with that.
Floor a spot starter/long relief type.
Cahill
Do you have any faith in Trevor Cahill becoming the #1/#2 that people were projecting this time last year?
http://mvn.com/mlb-tossingtherosin/
yes
Yes I still have faith that Cahill can do this. He was badly rushed last year, even Oakland will admit.
And how can he be so much higher ranked than his "signing mate" Sardinas who got more cheddar?
Also, since he is ranked so high in a really loaded system, what is his MLB E.T.A. and position when he gets there?
Your 2009 Snow Monkey Ambassador
who knows
I haven’t seen him so I don’t know. All I have are glowing scouting reports, but without any statistics to look at, without seeing the guy in person, and without any track record against North American amateur competition, it’s hard to say. I will say that scouts from other teams are not as high on Profar as the Rangers are, but that does NOT mean the Rangers are wrong.
In the last three years, people are paying more attention to the Latin American signees, and that’s a good thing, but people also seem to be losing perspective on exaclty how risky these guys can be.
profar
The Rangers just love the guy, but I’m not going to base my opinion on just what the Rangers say.
profar
Until such time as I can afford to travel to instructional league and see guys like that in person in the fall, I adopt a conservative approach. I don’t have an expense account from a media organization and any travel I do comes directly out of my own pocket and the family funds, so on guys like that I take a careful approach until there is more data.
Alex Avila
What’s his ceiling? Where would he rank in the second tier of C prospects (after the top tier of Montero, Posey, Santana)?
avila
I don’t think he will be a star, but I think he can have a very long career as a guy who hits .260/.350/.450.
Mitch Moreland
Do you believe that he will eventually be a big lg regular?
"JD gets complete blame or credit for what happens in 2010 and I think Nolan wants it that way. JD is paid to be a real GM and needs to start performing like one." - Josey Wales
moreland
he’s 24 so his window to establish himself will be brief, but if he can luck out a bit on the timing, he has enough hitting ability to do that.
taylor
Taylor gets 400 at-bats this year and hits .272/.331/.435. Then he explodes in ’11.
Montero spends most of ’10 in Triple-A, hitting .310/.365/.525, then comes up in September and goes 8-for-35 with two homers for the Yankees.
Tim Milone, LHP in the Washington Nationals system
Do you think that he will be a solid big league regular in the back of the rotation or do you think that as he moves up the system, the fact the he does not have great “stuff” will limit him to being a command specialist in the minors?
milone
I think it most likely that he’ll top out as a good Triple-A starter, with some cups-of-coffee in the majors but without consistent success there.
Green or Weeks
Between Green and Weeks with the A’s, who do you expect to have the better combination of speed, power, and average? Thanks!
green
I like Green better overall. Weeks may show more speed, but Green will hit for more power and probably a higher average in time, plus he’s a SS.
robert stock
you said you preferred him as a pitcher in college. what kind of pitcher does he project to be?
pitcher
Yeah I thought he would be better as a pitcher. I thought he had enough stuff to be a number two starter, or perhaps a power closer.
beltre
I think there is a high risk that he never gets more than a handful of at-bats in the majors.
Michael Main
Do you think Main will live up to his previous hype that has mainly come from his higher draft position and performances at instructs?
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
main
I’m still high on Main and I think he will rebound.
If he sucks again in ‘10, then we’ll have to reaassess. But for now I still rank him highly.
Cubs minor league pitching
Rank in order of break out potential in 2010: Austin Kirk, Jeffry Antigua,, Chris Rusin, Justin Bristow, Trey McNutt, and Ryan Searle
cubs
C
Those guys are all Grade C prospects. McNutt has the best arm, so I’ll go with him. Antigua and Kirk are better than the other guys.
Top sleeper shortstops
I’m curious who you think are the best sleeper prospects, both in the minors and in the 2010 draft class, at short who can stick at the position.
Do you think Cardenas has the bat for 3rd?
Do you agree with the Bill Mueller comp a guy on AN made a few weeks ago?
"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond
Chris Davis
Was his improvement last year at AAA real or just a mirage (IOW does he still have major holes in his swing), can he translate that improved plate discipline to the majors, and who do you think is playing 1B for the Rangers in 2012?
R
And to be clear
I’m not just interested in Davis’s holes, but additional things too, like if he looked like he had a new approach or different mechanics, etc…..
Thanks!
davis
He looked pretty damn good when I saw him in OKC in August. I think he’s still got a good chance to be a very dangerous hitter. Whether that’s in Texas or not, I don’t know…I expect Smoak will be holding that position in 2012. But I have not given up on Davis by any means.
Tigers
If Ryan Streiby manages to stay healthy, is he the power bat Detroit needs this year?
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
Ryan Kalish
What do you think we’ll see from him this year and what kind of numbers do you think he’ll put up in the majors (eventually)?
by i r noobie on Feb 5, 2010 3:50 PM EST via mobile reply actions
kalish
Depends on if someone gets hurt in Boston or not, but I doubt he sees huge action this year. Long-term I think he will be a 10-15 homers, 15 steal, .280 with a high OBP type guy.
Elvis Andrus
If Andrus was still eligible for prospect lists (like every other player his age), where would he rank? Top 5?
Travis Snider
What is Travis Snider’s peak OPS over a full season, and would he still be a grade A/A- prospect today?
Aaron Crow
I’m curious as to this set of grades:
Tanner Scheppers: B+
Drew Storen: B+
Aaron Crow: B
The former two made your top 15 pitching prospects, and the latter did not even make the top 40. I find this noteworthy, since (to my memory) Crow was typically ranked higher than Scheppers when discussing the two holdouts, and since Storen was perceived as the “lesser” prospect that the Nats settled on after failing to sign Crow. I was wondering if you could opine about the rationale behind these comparative rankings.
Crow
I think he is really getting underrated in some places. He was neck and neck with Matusz, and while he had a vastly different experience in 2009, there is no sign that the stuff has degraded. I think Schepper has higher upside stuff, but I’m not sure how Storen could possibly rank higher…Good question
crow
I like Crow, but Scheppers has better stuff and Storen now has a professional track record to look at, hence the + on their grades compared to crow’s straight B.
crow
Also after watching some video and having seen all three of them in person now, I like Scheppers and Storen just a bit better in person than Crow.
Jordan Schafer, Freddie Freeman, Mycal Jones - star, regular, or bench player?
The Braves obviously don’t have much positional depth beyond Jason Heyward. Your top 3 were Jordan Schafer, Freddie Freeman, and Mycal Jones — for each, can you indicate whether that player will turn into a star, a regular, or a bench player?
http://www.chop-n-change.com
braves
Schafer….my guess is that he becomes a really good fourth outfielder or an average regular.
Freeman: slightly above average first baseman
Jones: too early to say, just in rookie ball. Has physical talent to be a regular but also a high failure possiblity.
Lars Anderson
Worried about last season and ETA in the bigs?
Who contributes more to the Rangers over the next 2 years?
Guillermo Moscoso or Danny Gutierrez ?
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
rangers
Moscoso is a better bet to help this year…he’s ready and has little left to prove in the minors.
Gutierrez has a higher ceiling, but also a higher injury risk given his history and needs more minor league time than Moscosco does.
Tanner Scheppers
What’s his ETA in Arlington, how much impact can he eventually have, and how concerned should we be about his injury history
You hear about the "Electric Arms", they're all the rage.
scheppers
ETA: assuming good health, late in 2010 or early 2011.
Impact: depends on his role. Does he start or relieve? He has number one starter and ace closer potential.
Injuries: I’m concerned. A lot of scouts think he’ll burn out fast. What may save him is his excellent athleticism.
Who is your guilty pleasure prospect you follow?
Which guy do you follow knowing that he really doesn’t have a legit chance fo being an everyday big leaguer but you follow him anyways?
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
hmm
Lost of candidates.
Eammon Portice, RHP, Boston is a guy I follow closely. Freaky delivery, high strikeout rates, gets grounders, scouts don’t believe in him.
Under the radar...
Who is the prospect no one is talking about that could have a big impact in the majors this season?
"God, I'm from Cleveland. When is it going to be our time?"
Reds - Stubbs & Bruce
What kind of production do you predict out of these guys this year?
You should follow me on twitter @DavefrmLville....the Onion does!
by Dave from Louisville on Feb 5, 2010 4:17 PM EST reply actions
Minor League teams
As a ranger fan I’ve heard a lot lately about how well Chuck Greenberg ran the Altoona team, did you make it there and was there anything that stood out? As a follow up question, are there any minor league teams that stand out for you based on their management/promotions staff?
altoona
I can’t get that far east….don’t have the budget to get that far.
Around here, Des Moines (Iowa Cubs) seems well-run, along with Oklahoma City. The folks in Burlington Iowa give it a good shot within the limits of their small market and the older facility.
In terms of prospects...
What trait do people tend to overrate most and what trait do people tend to underrate most in terms of prospects?
hmm
That is something that changes from time to time, and it really depends on what you’re talking about….are you talking about statheads or traditionalists? they all have their strengths and weaknessess.
draft
I don’t know at this point…haven’t focused much on the draft yet. I will say that whatever people are staying in February will probably not be true in May…there are always articles like “everyone thought this would be a draft rich in pitching, but it turns out that the hitting is better” every year before the draft.
Why/why not should marijuana be legalized?
And if that’s not appropriate, how tall are you
You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220
by Mets2k9 on Feb 5, 2010 4:23 PM EST via mobile reply actions
revised
I care more about how tall you are. So, how tall are you?
You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220
by Mets2k9 on Feb 5, 2010 4:24 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
pot
Marijunana and similar entheogens such as salvia should be legalized, taxed, and regulated.
No one cares how tall i am.
+infinity
Except I was curious as to how tall you are
You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220
by Mets2k9 on Feb 6, 2010 3:05 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
sean
Zobrist isn’t a good comp, their statistical profiles in the minors are not similar.
My guess is that Sean will have two good years at some point, but won’t sustain consistent success over a long period.
Bucs vs NLCD
John, the Bucs may have “The Plan” but the other NLCD clubs either have “The Money” or “The Elite Talent”. They refuse to pony up for Latin players, they only draft once in the top 75 players each year of the draft, and they refuse to spend for free agent talent. Looking down their MiLB system you have to wonder why MLB doesn’t take control – they can’t possibly ever compete the way they are moving. Or, do you see them as a dark horse in 2035?
what?
You’re joking, right?
The Pirates have improved their farm system in the last two drafts and are getting more aggressve in Latin America. They are spending the money now. I’m not sure where your question is coming from.
heyward and bumgarner
assuming they both begin the year in the majors, can you give a guess on the final stats of madison bumgarner and jason heyward?
heyward
Heyward….wild-ass guess, i’d say .265/.325/.435 in 2010 with people saying “he sucks!” then he breaks out big in ’11.
Bumgarner: I’d expect a league-average or slightly worse ERA.
C+/C Arms
I know it’s a lot easier to break out from being a lowly ranked pitcher than a lowly ranked hitter. Name a few high upside pitchers you have a good feeling about.
Hey guys, I run a music blog. alternative, powerpop, punk, electronica, screamo, etc etc, check it out. http://muzikdizcovery.blogspot.com/ artist interviews and many other stuff. free cookies! (not really, but still) :D
Late Round Draft Picks
What is there to make of guys that get drafted late in the draft (i.e. Evan Sharpley in the 50th round) that didn’t perform well at all in college but somehow explode in rookie ball? Sharpley obviously isn’t Piazza, but how do you differentiate guys like that? Or can you? Oh, and what’s your thoughts about the A’s Mike Spina?
"...It reminds of us of all that once was good and it could be again. Oh... people will come Ray. People will most definitely come."
depends
Well sometimes guys like that are people who were injured, or who fell due to signablity reasons, or who went to small colleges and got overlooked by most teams (although that happens a lot less now than 20 years ago).
How do you differentiate them? That’s a good quesiton, and trying to figure out guys like that is something I’ve spent a lot of time on without coming up with a consistent answer.
is a young pitcher safer in the minors?
John, do you think an 18-year-old pitcher might be better served these days by turning pro instead of going to college? It seems like more organizations are putting more thought into how they handle young pitchers, while you’ll still hear horror stories about pitcher abuse in college.
program
A lot of it depends on the college program you’re talking about, as well as what minor league system you’re talking about.
A young upside pitcher is probably better off with, say, the Tampa Bay Rays than with many college programs. On the other hand, the college experience has emotional, intellectual, and character-building components that benefit a lot of players who aren’t ready for pro ball yet.
It really is a case-by-case thing…it depends on the needs of the player, the programs being considered, and what pro team you’re talking about.
Anthony Rendon
Where would Anthony Rendon rank among the current milb 3B prospects?
Roster Question
Hope you have fun with this one. Say you could pick one prospect to be the 25th man on the major league roster (let’s say in the NL). Who would you pick and what qualities made you think this person would be suited for that role?
roster
well honestly that depends on what the rest of the roster looks like. Do I need an outfielder? An infielder? A pinch-hitter? A defensive sub? There’s just not enough context here to answer the question, i’m sorry.
Carlos Gonzalez (COL)
Where would he rank if eligible?
Cinncinatti outfielders.
What is your best guess for the starting outfield ?
Cubs
How would you rank the upsides of the following Pacific Rim-born players in the Cubs’ system?
Cody Hams
Adam Spencer
Kyung-Min Na
Dong-Yub Kim
Tzu-An Wang
Ping-Chieh Chen
Yao-Lin Wang
AdamLind
Is/Was he that bad of an OF defensively in the minors and college since the Jays don’t want to give him the time of day in the outfield?
Casey Kelly
Can you talk about Casey Kelly’s stuff? Everyone seems to love him, but the reports sound a lot like “average stuff with great command.” My concern is that guys like that can get exposed by more advanced hitters.
casey
Well, the reports I have indicate he can hit 93-94 at his peak, though he’s usually 3-5 MPH below that. Given his age and the switch-positioning he was doing last year, i’m not too concerned about that and I think his average velocity will creep up closer to the peak as he matures physically. Reports indicate he has an above average changeup and a curveball that can also be above average, so if the heater picks up even a single tick he’s well-positioned for success. At this point I’m not worried about the stuff, I think he has enough.
Minor League Development
What teams are your favorite in terms of how they run their organizations top-to-bottom – e.g. drafting, developing players, wise in free agency, trading, etc – and why?
http://rswanzey.blogspot.com
orgs
I love the way the Rays handle things. I also think the Red Sox have developed into a terrific organization.
The Twins are in a downsphase right now at the upper levels of the system, but I like their focus on finding players in Europe, that’s creative.
I like Oakland. I like the Giants.
I think San Diego is underrated.
2011
Ignoring 2010 draftees, and assuming that Strasburg does NOT pitch enough in the majors this year, top prospects for 2011
Stephen Strasburg
Jesus Montero
Carlos Santana
Jeremy Hellickson
Aroldis Chapman
How do you rank them and do you consider them #1’s
Chris Tillman
David Price
Neftali Feliz
Derek Holland
Christian Friedrich
disregard if I'm late John
Alex Colome vs. Arodys Vizcaino … they sound very similar to me. Who do you like better and why?
Is it a good idea
to bring pitchers or hitters straight up from Double A? The Rockies duo coming from Tulsa this year, Fowler and Chacin come into my mind; since Chacin seemed to battle control demons in the MLB he never had before in the minors, and at times Fowler looked too raw at the plate and in the field, though his rookie season was gigantic step forward for him.
Impossible not to have positive thoughts.
I want Sam Deduno to pitch already.
AA
I think almost all players, both pitchers and hitters, benefit from full seasons in Double-A and at least half a season in Triple-A. There are very few exceptions. The style of play are different. This is something else I will flesh out into a larger article.
Jeri is feeling somewhat better and I hope to be fully operational Saturday. I was involved in two seperate and unrelated car accidents today, and that kind of ruined my day and kept me from working on this until now.
wow, that sucks… sorry
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Feb 5, 2010 10:14 PM EST reply actions
car
I slid in the slush and rear-ended another car this morning. My car was undamaged, but hers had a small paint scratch off the bumper. She insistend on making full police and insurance reports.
Six hours later, I was sitting in a parking lot waiting to pick up my kid for school, and a different lady backed up into my car and smashed out the headlight.
The good luck was that no one got hurt. I had kids in the car both times.
by John Sickels on Feb 5, 2010 10:31 PM EST up reply actions
well at least no one was hurt
but that has to be some kind of record. Not only 2 accidents, with kids in the car both times, but also with 2 different idiots…
Who makes a police/insurance report for a paint scratch?
Where was this were there was slush? Im guessing N. East?
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Feb 5, 2010 10:34 PM EST up reply actions
kansas
Kansas. We got 4 inches today. It was pretty icey and slushy this morning. I was creeping along in heavy traffic at about 10 mph. she was stopped ahead of me, I braked, the antilocks engaged but didn’t stop me, there was no place to turn due to the traffic, so I ended up hitting her. No damage to either car except the paint scratch, i couldnt’ have hit her at more than 1 or 2 MPH.
by John Sickels on Feb 5, 2010 10:38 PM EST up reply actions
right now
Im happy with the rain in So Cal. haha
(although I do miss the snow of the N. East.. maybe thats because I never had to drive in it though)
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Feb 5, 2010 10:42 PM EST up reply actions
In her defense, just because damage wasn’t visible doesn’t mean there wasn’t any. Bumpers and other features are made to break away, if those safety features are damaged and you are hit again, it could have a serious effect on how the car is designed to take hits. I don’t think you can call anyone an idiot for being cautious with their vehicle.
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