Draft Preview - Pittsburgh Pirates
by Andy Seiler on Feb 4, 2010 3:02 PM EST
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PrintThe second team draft preview on my blog focuses on the Pittsburgh Pirates and their scouting director Greg Smith.
Here's an excerpt from the writeup, which features small writeups on 25 players involved with Smith's work:
Connecting the Pirates to specific players is difficult at best at the moment, as no one knows for sure whether they’ll go with a signable player early or one they consider the best player available. Assuming that Bryce Harper is off the board for pick two, the two big-name players that will cost a good part of their budget are Anthony Ranaudo and Jameson Taillon. Taillon doesn’t fit the M.O of Greg Smith, so I think it’s fair to throw him out unless new information comes out about their preference for him. Therefore, Anthony Ranaudo is the logical candidate if they choose to go with the best player available philosophy, though Ranaudo may cost $5+ million and a Major League contract. Scott Boras tends to do that. The other option is picking another signable college player, one that is not represented by Scott Boras. The main alternative in that philosophy is Christian Colon from Cal State Fullerton. He would fit well as a fast-moving infielder with above-average potential, and he should be signable for slot, perhaps below slot for the number two pick. Alternatives include Deck McGuire, LeVon Washington, Chris Sale, and Drew Pomeranz. For their second round pick, I’d look at Addison Reed, Jake Thompson, and Daniel Tillman. Later picks could include Burch Smith, Rob Segedin, Tommy Kahnle, and Dan Grovatt.
As always, read about the 2010 MLB Draft Notebook and pre-order it here.
What do you think? What will the Pirates do?
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Taillon or Ranaudo
I just don’t trust Colon’s range at SS enough to be happy with him here. The Pirates are lacking TOR pitching prospects and I wouldn’t be happy if they went with another signability college hitter.
I love these posts Andy, great work!
Went with Colon. I think last year’s strategy worked really well for them and given the strength of this draft (prep arms), it makes sense for them to go with a safer pick in the 1st round and taking more risks later on. I also think Ranaudo is too expensive and Taillon might be as well.
That brings me to another question about Ranaudo. If those bonus demands are as high as you say they are, how far do you see him falling if at all? Kansas has been willing to deal with Boras and meet his demands, but could he fall out of the top 10?
He could probably fall to the 12-14 range.
But like most years, someone probably in the top ten will pony up for him. I honestly don’t see him falling past the Royals at #4 if he falls due to the bonus demands.
I think Boras is going to compare Ranaudo to Jeremy Guthrie, then add inflation. Guthrie got a 4 year/$4.5 million deal, and I think it will be more like 4/$5.5-6 million for Ranaudo. That’s fairly affordable if the signing bonus comes in around $3.5-4 million.
I still think...
McGuire ends up as the best college arm this year. I would take him if I were the Pirates because he should come at a reasonable price and he has a damn good arm.
This was my reasoning
The Pirates need pitching depth and they don’t want to spend that much on a Ranaudo so I had them taking McGuire
Kevin Frandsen: The best SS on the Giants roster
Hoping for BowkerMania to hit AT&T Park in 2010
That's a good possibility.
Their upside is roughly equal. I personally prefer Ranaudo, but it’s not a difference that’s as big as a lot of people would have you believe.
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