Draft Preview - Chicago Cubs
by Andy Seiler on Feb 24, 2010 11:16 AM EST
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PrintThe seventeenth team draft preview on my blog focuses on the Chicago Cubs and their scouting director Tim Wilken.
Here's an excerpt from the writeup, which features small writeups on 20 players involved with Wilken's work:
Connecting the Cubs to a few players, my latest mock draft has lefty college pitcher Drew Pomeranz falling to them with their 16th pick. There’s probably only a 1 in 7 chance that a possibility like that happens, but Pomeranz fits that mold well. Other possible names could include Alex Wimmers, Bryce Brentz, James Paxton, and Chad Bettis, all fairly polished names with some good upside. Brentz is the only hitter in the bunch, and I do not see many good hitting names available to them in that slot unless they want to dip down into the more volatile prep ranks. Josh Sale, Austin Wilson, and Yordy Cabrera could be available in that slot, but they generally don’t fit the Cubs’ overall tendencies at the moment. Looking beyond the first round, I’ve connected players such as Kolbrin Vitek, Mark Canha, Brett Weibley, and Ross Wilson to them in the second round. Later names of interest might include Gauntlett Eldemire, Turner Phelps, Matt den Dekker, and Stewart Ijames, though each of those players’ draft position could swing rapidly between now and June. Overall, I expect the Cubs to add a few interesting names with relatively modest upside, but relatively high floors. They’ve done so in the past, and I expect more of the same from a solid amateur scouting department.
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What do you think? What will the Cubs do?
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Also doing my weekly chat.
The chat window is open for questions now, and I’m going to start answering them at noon eastern.
It's an interesting write up
A few comments:
Brett Jackson didn’t strike a lot during the course of his college career. He struck out a lot his junior season … a difference which should be noted. I mean, while I can’t speak to why there was a jump, other sites (BA) have potentially attributed it to trying to perform for scouts.
Matt Cerda was transitioned to catcher, but has been temporarily moved to 3rd base.
Darvill’s an interesting guy. Right now, he has plus speed and athleticism, and he’s expected to develop power down the line. That said, not many are expecting him to keep that athleticism to go with power. His biggest issue is probably his arm strength, which IIRC, was questioned a bit last fall, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go to 2nd.
As he did in previous stops, he focuses on drafting up the middle, athletic positional players. There’s a good mix of toolsy gambles with some safe guys. It’s somewhat hard to judge his first two drafts, though, as his first draft was hampered by the lack of picks, and his 2nd draft seemed like it was aimed at filling in gaps in the Cubs system.
As for his arm philosophy, I think saying that he drafts polished arms is a bit overstating it. There’s a solid group of polished arms that he’s drafted in 4 years, but he’s also taken a litany of raw guys. Jeff Samardzija, Jay Jackson, Justin Bristow, James Leverton, Brooks Raley were all athletic, but raw collegiate arms. Whitenack, McNutt, McDaniel and others weren’t exactly considered polished arms.
I guess the general thing about Wilken that can be stated is that he’s looking for tools, ranging from athleticism to plus pitches, but he will mix in some safer guys, safer arms, partly due to Hendry’s preferences.
I don’t follow the draft enough to know the names now. I would look for the Cubs to try, if possible, to find a 3rd baseman at some point early, perhaps one with power, as the system is short at 3rd base (unless someone moves over there – other than Vitters, it’s a pretty big question mark). There’ll be some up the middle guys. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if this draft ended up more like 2008 than 2007/2009 and was more pitching oriented. After the Cubs big 3 of Jay Jackson/Andrew Cashner/Chris Carpenter, there’s a bit of a gap. While I like some of the young arms in the system, I could see them want to fill in some gaps.
think you hit it on the head
in the BCB thread we had on the draft, I think the point was also made that the system lacks LH hitting relatively speaking, and power bats from the left side in particular (there’s so much strength up the middle that drafting a guy with positional concerns wouldn’t be a huge risk.) That’s why I’d love to see a big lefty bat like Sale who’s probably destined for 1b or corner OF. But OP is right that it hasn’t been the Cubs philosophy of late
by PrincetonCubs on Feb 24, 2010 1:20 PM EST up reply actions
I doubt the Cubs would draft a corner bat
in the first unless said guy was considered special. Even then, they’d probably look for an up the middle guy.
Overall, I think the system simply needs power. Actually 2 of our better power bats are lefties (Brett and Kyler). Lefty pitching is still an area that’s thin. Catcher is actually a bit thin, depending on what happens with Sergio Burruel’s development and, crap, one more guy that’s slipping my mind. 3rd is an area of concern (although Flaherty might be an intriguing idea there – on a total side note, Wes Darvill seems to project to be Flaherty-ish).
But in general, power is would love to add – power arms and power bats. Easier said than done on the bat side, but I would love to see some power arm gambles.
I agree
that certainly seems to be the trend to draft up the middle, I’m just saying if I had my druthers. 3rd does seem to be thin beyond Vitters, Jovan Rosa having had a lousy season. Flaherty could be worth a shot. I’d just love for them to draft the biggest bat available sometimes, rather than emphasize tools so much. Personally, Sale seems like a special bat who’ll play on a corner, but it’s hard to know anything for certain so early.
by PrincetonCubs on Feb 25, 2010 3:55 PM EST up reply actions
don't disagree
I think the system has developed enough that grabbing a big time bat would be just fine.
Rosa’s going to be interesting to follow. I was insanely high on him two years ago, as some folks had indicated to me that they thought his power could really develop. Then, he started swinging for the fences and got in a rut in Daytona, before finishing in Peoria. What’s interesting is the whole catching experiment. If he can stick there, his bat would play real well for it and give us an interesting option at catcher.
Andy
just wanted to say really enjoy your work. Keep it up.
I too, agree with your top 3. I understand it’s JUCO, but Harper’s certainly not disappointed thus far (especially considering the age and pressure he’s under).
just curious
why “perfect” fit? Of the little I know about him, he seems like a possibility, but I don’t see him standing out as a “perfect fit” type. I wouldn’t mind it … I’m just not sure what makes Bettis stand out as a “perfect” fit. He’d be more of a Cashner type pick than many of the other arms that Wilken has picked i his Cub tenure.
Why do you say that?
Because he could rise fast and be in their pen soon when they have had some pen problems? I can see that I suppose. I’m not sure I’d take a reliever with the 16th pick though.
I think Nick Castellanos makes a lot of sense for them. I think he’ll have a big bat and even if he ends up at 1B, he’ll be a decent replacement for Derrek Lee someday.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
The Cubs pen is a bit shaky right now
but there are enough options in the minors to think that they might be stronger in a year or two (relative to potential late inning arms, if the big three of Jackson/Cashner/Carpenter don’t stick as starters, they all profile as potentially solid late inning options. John Gaub has good LOOGY stuff, Blake Parker, and so forth).
I have high doubts that Wilken would take a pure reliever with the 16th pick. If he believed in Bettis as a starter, as he hoped with Cashner, then I could see it.
If Castellanos can stick/has a shot at sticking at 3rd, I could definitely see it.
Is it possible that Derek McGuire
makes it to 16? Not really, right?
Not right now.
And it’s Deck, not Derek. Derek is his teammate Derek Dietrich.
by Andy Seiler on Feb 24, 2010 11:21 PM EST up reply actions
Unless something drastic happens, LSU’s Leon Landry makes a lot of sense. Something about a toolsy left-handed OF really fits the bill for the Cubs, especially given Hendry’s connection with Paul Mainieri. LSU’s catcher Micah Gibbs might also work for similar reasons, but what I’ve read about his bat does not sound particularly promising.
Really needs an impact bat
While Wilkins has stocked the system with middle infielders that can move anywhere in Theory. This is still a system without a legitimate big bat at any level of the minors.
Still too much attention to projection and tools over discipline and production IMHO.
" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "
don't disagree that the Cubs need some pop in the system
although i’d argue that brett jackson fits the bill, but some want to see a greater SS before committing and you may fall in that camp.
I imagine that you aren’t considering Vitters as legitimate. There’s some other power bats, but that is an area of concern for many of us Cubs fans.
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