2010 Rebound candidates - version 1
by pedrophile on Feb 23, 2010 9:33 PM EST
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PrintFrancisco Liriano - I don't think there is a pitcher in all of baseball with the upside of Liriano. He had an electric fastball and an unhittable slider before the surgery. Now his changeup is vastly improved. His control was never good but last year set new lows. But that's ok, with TJ surgery that was expected. It sounds like his stuff has recovered but not to the point it was before injury. That's ok with his improved change.
He was bad last year but that was more about making too many mistakes. This year those mistakes should be less and with more velocity - so they will be punished less. Expect anywhere from a 4.25 ERA to an 3.25 ERA.
Jeremy Bonderman - He had surgery 2 offseasons ago for thoracic outlet syndrome. A fancy way of saying his rib was impeding a nerve causing loss of feeling in his pitching hand. He was having a breakout year and then halfway through the season couldn't have any feel. His slider suffered and then his movement on his fastball went down.
He had surgery and came back last season. But an offseason without any throwing put him way behind everyone else. Muscles do atrophy. I think we forget how fine tuned pitchers bodies become. Anyways, he struggled all season to recover his velocity but never really recovered his stuff.
From reports it sounds like he has the movement back on his fastball. If he has this and his slider he can become a dominant pitcher once again. I am still worried as he is a bit behind other pitchers. This doesn't match with the rest of the info we are reading, why is he behind?
Dustin McGowan - will he ever recover to the potential he has?
He had rotator cuff problems at the end of his first successful season. But JP kept this quiet and had Dustin pitch the next year. And he hurt the shoulder further with capsule damage I believe. I think the labrum damage was minor. We shall see. ps:I hate JP.
Last season Dustin was rehabbing and injured his knee and had to shut down for the year. That's probably a good thing. At least now he might be protected.
I really have no idea what kind of stuff he will have. Before the injuries his stuff was as good as just about anyone. The only concern I had was his stiff landing which really messed up his location at times. Hello Billingsley.
Bedard - for this season I wouldn't be counting on him. It looks like there is a good chance he misses 2-3 months
Bedard is certainly intriguing because of his stuff for a lefty, high k's, and stretches of utter dominance. I'm not high on him because of too many injury concerns combined with stretches where he looks just average. Nothing wrong with that but in any league someone will always be paying for that ace potential
Any thoughts or other candidates? More to come...
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Chien-Ming Wang
He probably won’t be a popular pick to be a rebound guy, but I believe in him. He was hampered early last year due to the poor advice the Yankees gave him on rehabbing from Lisfranc (Cashman indicated that they told him not to rehab based on some belief they had on Lisfranc recovery, or something like that – was on the radio, during the spat with Nero). The Lisfranc was a fluke injury. Prior to the shoulder issues, he was finally coming to form a bit. The game against the Blue Jays, his stuff looked close to what it once was, with the fastball velo sharper.
Yes, I’m concerned about the shoulder, but he’s had ample time off. He’s moving to the NL, to a park that gave up less home runs last year. I admit I have my bias here, but I believe he’ll bounce back and have a strong season for the Nats, setting up the Nats for 2011 when they might be looking at a rotation of Strasburg/Zimmerman/Wang/Lannan/Marquis, and a pen anchored by Storen.
I had been hoping
to see Ian Desmond get short, as I believe he would’ve been an upgrade. But I think they are going to trot Cristian/Adam out there to start, decent but eh.
I keep hearing about Kazmir...
But his late season surge in LA looks completely based off an abnormally low BABIP and a microscopic home run rate.
I’m not doubting that his velocity could be back and he could regain some of what he was, but if the velocity was back last season it doesn’t look like it really did much for him.
Im buying what he's selling
His velocity wasn’t back last season – it was back post trade. There were clearly stretches when he wasn’t healthy last year.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/waiver-wire-al-0219/
Fastball
Velo appeared to be back, but command is his key. . . it seemed like teams were sitting on the FB in the playoffs and he got hit pretty hard. You can say this about most pitchers, but he really needs to command his secondary stuff, especially if his slider isn’t as sharp as a few years back.
Boy do I hope so
"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond
i was fronting the wagon on wanting KC to resign him
great defender and showed an improved plate approach last year. will need to stay healthy though.
baseball rules.
I think your definition of "monster"
needs some refinement…
Not to mention, 25 points better than
his best season ever in the big leagues so far.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Wait, you mean if he had hit the ball harder,
he would have might have had almost had an OBP that high?
C’mon — the guy is an established veteran who has always had an OBP of right around .345 or right around .320. Except the one year he was a lot worse than that.
The best reason to think he’ll OBP .370 is your gut. That’s fine. But the evidence suggests this is highly unlikely.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
you are forgetting one thing
I have a big gut!
I will not stand for big-gut-ry.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Edwin Encarnacion
Fully recovered from injury and without the bad luck on balls in play he suffered the past two seasons, Encarnacion is a good bet to have a decent season – something along the lines of .280/.360/.480. Right now he’s not even getting drafted in many standard leagues.
I was on board the bandwagon and he had a nice PECOTA... but hopped off when I heard he had wrist surgery this offseason.
That’s a big red flag for me – especially when the only area I really saw plus potential for him was power
That is a bit of a red flag
Surgery was early in November. He’s supposed to be fully recovered by now, but we all know how wrist injuries seem to sap power for long periods.
Either way, it should be easy to take a bit of a wait and see approach – he won’t be on very many rosters this season, so it would be good to keep an eye on him early and if he starts hitting some dingers it should indicate that everything is fine with him.
Ollie Perez
A return to his 2008 numbers (194 ip; 180 ks; 4.22 era; 1.4 WHIP) would represent a big bounce-back from last season’s contribution. The Mets need Perez to return to this kind of performance if the team plans to compete with the Phils.
by Mizur29 on Feb 24, 2010 10:15 AM EST reply actions
I don't buy it
I’m a hopeful Met fan, but I really think Ollie is a tough case for a comeback . There are so many things to go wrong with him – knee injury, loss of arm angle, his temperment. If he can stay calm and consistently throw for strike like in 2007 I’d be thrilled, but I have lost hope for him.
I’d actually say that John Main could make a nice comeback from his injury . If he’s completely healthy, we could see a high 3, low 4 era and 15 wins.
Ollie is
5% chance of brililance, 40% chance of below averagish and 55% chance of DFA.
Marcum scares the hell out of me with his bad mechanics and high 80's velocity
I doubt either one can stay healthy or pitch a full season of innings. Plus, Toronto’s defense is going to be abysmal – which won’t help Marcum.
Why?
What would make you think Hudson wont stay healthy. I can see having doubts about Marcum but Hudson has had a mostly healthy career and is approximately 18 months removed from TJ surgery. I disagree with you on him.
I think Hudson has peaked
He’s at the tail end of his career. A full rebound might be difficulty, but I could easily see him having a decent season. Just nowhere near what he used to produce.
I don't
He was great during his brief return last year (62% GB rate; 3.47xFIP) and I full expect him to pitch like he has for his entire career. I wouldn’t classify him as a bounce back guy though because he’s never been anything but consistently good.
I think the Jays should move McGowan to the bullpen immediately (if they haven't already)
They might actually get some useful innings out of him that way. I just can’t see anybody with his injury history lasting a single season in the rotation.
Jake Westbrook?
He’s suposedly finally healthy. He’s had a long break from Tommy John and might be another year away; but he’s a good guy to count on for a rebound.
Bonderman
has he ever really been a “dominant” pitcher? I like Bedard If/When healthy over these other guys. He’ll be pitching behind Lee and Felix in the three spot. Gotta love pitching in SEA and w/ a very solid D . . . main question is when will he be healthy. . .
I’ve always had issues w/ Ervin Santana, more of a focus thing than a stuff thing, but he should bounce back, he’ll probably be pitching out of the four or five spot for the Halos.
It will be interesting to see what Rich Hill can do under Duncan’s instruction, wonder if he can figure it out. . . same w/ Penny to an extent, he was much better in the NL
I think Bonderman has generally been overrated
He’s a lot like Chad Gaudin, and that’s not a high compliment.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Disagree
Bonderman has been always been very young for his league, if it wasn’t that, he was injured. The season he put up in 2006 was quite good – wanna say he was amongst the league leaders in ERA+ and that was as a 23 year old. Watching him pitch live was always impressive. If he’s healthy, he’s quite good.
I think the "two pitch" starter problem was catching up to him,
health notwithstanding. I think he would have struggled anyway going forward.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
How so?
There is absolutely nothing that points in that direction.
He was in the midst of emerging from the “Detroit ruined him by rushing him” tag that everyone was so quick to put on him. Then he got hurt – his decline had nothing to do with anything other than injury. I believe it is harder for pitches with limited offerings to succeed as starters, but don’t subscribe to that universally. Mark Prior and Randy Johnson had no problem operating on 2 pitches for the most part – if you’re 2 pitches are good enough, pitchers can be successful. I think Bonderman fits into that mold.
all true, but ...
it probably wont matter now since he will truly be a 3 pitch pitcher. He scrapped the changeup that he hated and has gone with a splitter. It is a work in progress but better than the change ever was. Sounds like they never let him throw the split until now.
If he adds a good splitter I'll change my tune
But comparing him to Prior and R Johnson is pretty silly — their two pitches are sensational, not just “good.” As a fastball/slider pitcher I think Bonderman was going to be in trouble if he stayed healthy.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Not at all
No where in that comp did I say he was their equal – just drawing a parallel. And Priors pitches weren’t all that sensational – his control is what put him over the top. I don’t see how / where anyone can infer that a 23 year old that had one of the best season in the majors in 2006 was on his way to having problems with the 2 pitches that got him there in the first place, but to each his own I suppose. Bonderman was very impressive when he was healthy.
question on CFers
last year, i drafted Rick Ankiel, Elijah Dukes and Chris Young to fill my two CF slots on my fantasy team. all of them busted harder than you can imagine.
does anyone foresee any of these three bouncing back? (going by REAL stats, not fantasy stats.)
I like Ankiel to bounce back
He was battling injuries all of last year. He is finally healthy, and was actually a rare good pickup by KC. He will never post a high OBP, but shoudl hit for good power.
I keep thinking Dukes will break out, but he never actually does. I am about ready to give up. I have no idea what to think of CY. He looked like he lost his confidence at the plate last year, which is both scary and promising at the same time. As long as he regains his confidence, he should be fine. That is far beyond a certainty though.
I agree with Dukes
I think he can be a nasty major league if he gets his confidence back and stays out of trouble.
Dukin' Dukes nuttin; but a wet dream
Elijah hasn’t been able to keep his anger in check nor his trouser snake in his pants. He’s a heck of an athlete who will never get a peak at his real potential because of it.
Baseball isn’t his game. He should go pro in the NFL. He’s got linebacker written all over him
Managing Partner, www.RotoExperts.com
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wow, dude
just wow.
i’ll just leave it at that because you’re either a troll or genuinely oblivious to yourself. and i don’t really want to get into it either way.
by bleedjaxblue on Feb 26, 2010 3:39 PM EST up reply actions
Chris Young
I’m more inclined to believe that Chris Young is going to bounce back than the other two. He’s still only 26 and he posted a pretty solid .278/.355/.546 after Sept 1st, with 8 homeruns in 108 at bats. I don’t think he’ll be able to manage that type of pace all season, but I don’t think .250/.320/.480 is unrealistic for a player with his skill set. Whether or not it’ll happen is another story entirely. I’m a huge fan, and I’ve all but lost my hope for him entirely, but I still like him better than the other two.
Mike Pelfrey?
He wasn’t injured, but his 2009 was just plain terrible, especially considering how good he was in the 2nd half of 2008. I personally think that 2008 was a significant drain on him jumping from 72 innings in 2007 to 200 in 2008. I think he can reproduce the stats from the 2nd half of 2008.
I personally think his success depends on limiting his walks.
He was not terrible
xFIP: 4.52
tERA: 4.56
He was hurt by luck and defense to some extent… I think league average or about there is about how good he is, maybe a little better.
Joey devine
I’m interested to see how he does off tj surgery. Great stuff, but injuries. They can take it slow since bailey, wuertz,and ziegler will be slotted ahead of him in the bullpen. Devine might even have to compete with former top prospect Jon Meloan for some innings too.
Gosh, Meloan was messed up by the Dodgers
He looked like an amazing reliever, until they moved him to the rotation…
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David Ortiz
as long as we’re not testing for HGH
Who loves orange soda?
B.J Upton
Don`t think I could stomach another powerless year.
How can you have any pudding if you haven`t eaten your meat? I`m still waiting...
by Barnese and Bailey Circus on Feb 27, 2010 12:29 AM EST reply actions
I think he'll bounce back
Kevin Frandsen: The best SS on the Giants roster
Hoping for BowkerMania to hit AT&T Park in 2010
Dice-K
I think theres a good shot he rebounds.Looked good late
My picks:
Brad Penny: continues the resurgence he saw in SF, especially with Duncan helping.
Pat Burrell: Maybe he simply hit a wall, but perhaps it was the neck problem.
B.J. Upton: Still just 25 and has shown enough to think he is ready to put it together.
Jeff Francis
I don’t he’s a top pick for me, but based off reports I’ve heard, I think after he gets used to game action again, he’s going to be pretty good once again.
Impossible not to have positive thoughts.
I want Sam Deduno to pitch already.
thinK**
Impossible not to have positive thoughts.
I want Sam Deduno to pitch already.
by bballrox4717 on Feb 28, 2010 12:36 PM EST up reply actions
Grady Sizemore
and to a lesser extent, Travis Hafner.
I thought about listing Sizemore
But it seemed a bit obvious and something no one on this site would refute.
Hafner actually had a pretty decent 380 plate appearances last season, but it’s definitely true he could get some more BABIP luck this year and put up a pretty impressive line – .290/.380/.500 wouldn’t be impossible.
Aubrey Huff
We need him to bounce back
Kevin Frandsen: The best SS on the Giants roster
Hoping for BowkerMania to hit AT&T Park in 2010
Shaun Marcum
I doubt that he will come back throwing 4+ mph harder after TJ like Josh Johnson did, but he was successful without throwing real hard anyway. I have never read anything about bad mechanics, as stated earlier in this thread. I think he will prove to be very solid this year.
I'm going with
Geovanny Soto
JJ Hardy
David Wright
and I’d really like to see Liriano do so as well.
by philadelphiacub on Mar 1, 2010 11:30 PM EST reply actions
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