My updated prediction of BA's Top 100 Prospects
by rhd on Feb 22, 2010 4:46 AM EST
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PrintI posted a list like this last October. Now, I'm taking another stab at predicting who'll be in BA's overall Top 100, which will be posted Tuesday. This time, I gave a ranking to each player, but still included a range of where I think the player will likely be:
1. (2) S. Strasburg (1 or 2)
2. (1) J. Heyward (1 or 2)
3. (3) M. Stanton (3-10)
4. (4) J. Montero (3-10)
5. (8) P. Alvarez (3-10)
6. (5) B. Matusz (5-10)
7. (9) N. Feliz (5-10)
8. (7) B. Posey (5-15)
9. (6) D. Jennings (5-15)
10. (14) M. Bumgarner (5-20)
11. (10) C. Santana (5-20)
12. (11) D. Ackley (5-20)
13. (13) J. Smoak (5-20)
14. (15) D. Brown (5-20)
15. (20) L. Morrison (10-25)
16. (12) A. Escobar (10-25)
17. (19) A. Hicks (10-30)
18. (16) Star. Castro (10-30)
19. (25) K. Drabek (10-30)
20. (17) M. Perez (15-30)
21. (34) W. Davis (15-30) - miss
22. (18) J. Hellickson (15-30)
23. (24) C. Kelly (15-30)
24. (22) A. Chapman (15-35)
25. (21) R. Westmoreland (15-35)
26. (23) T. Matzek (15-40)
27. (31) L. Chisenhall (15-40)
28. (33) C. Friedrich (15-50)
29. (26) J. Turner (20-45)
30. (47) C. Crosby (25-50) - semi-miss
31. (39) M. Montgomery (25-50)
32. (40) A. Crow (25-50)
33. (28) C. Carter (25-50)
34. (27) B. Wallace (25-50)
35. (45) Y. Alonso (25-50)
36. (32) F. Freeman (25-50)
37. (29) M. Taylor (25-50)
38. (46) D. Gordon (30-55)
39. (52) G. Green (30-60)
40. (56) J. Mejia (30-60) - semi-miss
41. (77) F. Martinez (30-60) - miss
42. (35) M. Moore (30-65)
43. (41) J. Castro (30-65)
44. (61) K. Gibson (30-70)
45. (51) J. Teheran (30-70)
46. (59) B. Lawrie (35-75)
47. (37) J. Bell (40-75)
48. (53) D. Tate (40-75)
49. (36) J. Parker (40-80) - miss
50. (48) C. Withrow (40-80)
51. (38) D. Norris (40-80) - miss
52. (55) J. Mitchell (40-80)
53. (67) T. Beckham (40-80)
54. (80) M. Moustakas (40-85) - miss
55. (70) J. Vitters (40-85)
56. (62) I. Davis (40-85)
57. (30) M. Saunders (40-85) - miss
58. (76) A. Jackson (40-85)
59. (42) T. Scheppers (40-85) - semi-miss
60. (50) S. Miller (40-90)
61. (49) Z. Wheeler (40-90)
62. (43) T. Frazier (45-80) - miss
63. (66) D. Hudson (40-100)
64. (74) Brett Jackson (50-90)
65. (73) J. Mier (50-90)
66. (NR) M. Dominguez (50-100) - miss
67. (75) J. Reddick (50-100)
68. (95) A. Cashner (50-100) - miss
69. (69) A. Vizcaino (50-100)
70. (91) J. Lyles (50-100) - semi-miss
71. (NR) J. Tabata (50-100) - miss
72. (79) T. Sanchez (50-100)
73. (58) W. Ramos (50-100)
74. (NR) W. Myers (50-100) - miss
75. (60) T. Flowers (50-100)
76. (54) R. Brignac (50-100) - semi-miss
77. (NR) E. Hosmer (50-100) - miss
78. (71) J. Chacin (50-100)
79. (99) J. Arrieta (60-100) - semi-miss
80. (63) Z. Britton (60-100) - semi-miss
81. (NR) E. Martin (60-100) - miss
82. (57) Sim. Castro (60-100) - miss
83. (NR) B. Revere (60-100) - miss
84. (94) M. Sano (60-100)
85. (NR) B. Borchering (60-100) - miss
86. (NR) Aar. Miller (60-100) - miss
87. (NR) A. Liddi (60-100) - miss
88. (97) P. Bourjos (60-100)
89. (83) H. Conger (60-100)
90. (85) M. Trout (70-100)
91. (100) N. Arguelles (70-100)
92. (82) J. Decker (70-100)
93. (44) N. Hagadone (75-100) - miss
94. (88) W. Flores (75-100)
95. (89) M. Gamel (75-100)
96. (87) L. Anderson (75-100)
97. (92) D. Storen (75-100)
98. (84) A. Moore (75-100)
99. (NR) Z. Stewart (75-100) - miss
100. (98) Jay Jackson (75-100)
HMs
H. Rondon
E. Rogers
(90) J. Darnell
T. Reckling
R. Kalish
(72) M. Leake - miss
M. Minor
(78) C. James - semi-miss
(96) T. Neal
N. Weglarz
Other possibilities:
B. Lincoln
T. Melville
M. Ynoa
J. Tazawa
(64) J. Knapp - miss
(93) P. Aumont
E. Arnett
M. Brantley
C. Triunfel
B. Allen
H. Lee
(68) A. Colome - (miss)
C. D'Arnaud
I. Desmond
D. Espinosa
S. Sizemore
C. Heisey
C. Carrasco
Jam. Garcia
A. Pollock
(81) T. D'Arnaud - semi-miss
M. Stassi
(86) A. Romine
J. Niese
A. Oliver
---
(65) Alex White (complete miss)
---
The team w the most players on the list (surprise!) KC w 6 (tied w Tampa). I'm fairly certain that there will be this many from KC. Every team has at least 1 player. Seems a bit more hitter-heavy than usual w 59 and only 41 pitchers. 52 from AL and 48 from NL. Lots of catchers (11), counting guys like Montero, and also 3 more on my 'Other possibilities' list..
The BA Prospect Handbook is out, which has the individual Top 50's, but I did not consult it. I did get a little advance notice tho by listening to the latest BA Chat, in which they discuss the Top 100. After hearing that, I moved 4 guys on (Britton, Decker, Storen, A. Moore); they specifically said that all these guys are on it. I moved Kalish, Reckling, Rogers, and Rondon off, but the only one I'm pretty sure is not on BA's list is Kalish (they said that only 4 Boston guys made it, and they said that Anderson made it and Kalish is #5 on the Bosox Top 10).
There were several players that were particularly hard to rank based on BA's prior rankings. E.g., Rogers and Rondon. They ranked pretty low on their Team Top 10's. But they each ranked fairly well on 2 diff league Top 20's. I ended up leaving both just off the list. I thought that the Cleveland and Colorado Team Top 10's were 2 of the hardest to figure, the former particularly so because Callis did the list. Rogers rated on HM on BA's mid-season Top 25. Of course he was not good at AAA during the second half, but he still was ranked #9 in the PCL.
Ynoa wasnt even ranked on the original A's Top 10 (he's #10 now since Desme retired) after being ranked #54 overall last year. It was stated in the BA chat that Arguelles is in the top 100. I dont think anyone's ever made the Top 100 when being ranked only #10 on the Team Top 10, so I dont see how Ynoa will make the list. Yet Ynoa was even more highly regarded this time last year than Arguelles is now, even tho he was at the same point professionally (i.e., had never pitched in pros) while being a year younger. And Ynoa didnt pitch badly; he just didnt pitch at all. Yet his injury was not major, and, according to more than 1 report I've heard, he's been impressive throwing in the instructional league this off-season. How Arguelles makes the list while Ynoa doesnt seems a bit odd.
There are 19 guys on this list that werent on the one I did in October. 2 of these (Chapman and Arguelles) werent eligible then. All the rest except for 4 were on my list of additional possible players. The ones I completely missed were Aaron Miller, Hagadone, Storen and Adam Moore. There may be another name or 2 on the real list that I missed.
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they also had Arguelles at #3 for KC though, so i’d be surprised if it was that many.
baseball rules.
But...
Hosmer is #6 for KC (after you insert Arguelles) and they already indicated that he’s on the list. Arguelles is such a wild card, I didnt know where to rank him. Probably, he’ll be higher than #91.
oh
i didn’t hear that Hosmer was on it. can’t complain. guess it stuns me a little that they might have 6 guys in the top 100 but still rank #17 overall? weird. that ranking doesn’t include Noel though. still.
baseball rules.
At first glance
looks like a reasonable stab. On the Cubs, I think Castro may end up closer to 30, as I’m not sure that many writers at BA love him. Manuel didn’t have him in his personal top 20, IIRC.
Vitters and Jackson look close to where I imagine BA may put them. It wouldn’t surprise me if Jackson was a few slots lower, but nothing significant. I wouldn’t be surprised if Andrew Cashner made it on ahead of Jay Jackson. I know Callis and Badler have loosely indicated possible support for Jay Jackson in the top 100, but I wouldn’t be surprised if more folks at BA were in love with Cashner’s fb and potential.
I also wouldn’t be all that shocked if Hak-ju Lee was in the top 100. They really love his upside, so I could see him sneaking in on the back end of the list.
I think...
it will be fairly close, at least from the standpoint of most of the guys I have on being on. It usually is. Every year I miss about 10-12 names, and there’ll be 2-4 surprises that I dont even have on my ‘HMs’. Most guys will be in the ranges I indicated (which admittedly are rather wide, mostly), but I’ll miss on a few of those, too.
I still think Beckham will be higher
He was still pretty high on their midseason list…I think the community on the whole is underrating him
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by The Congo Hammer on Feb 22, 2010 12:40 PM EST reply actions
release date/time
When does Baseball America plan on releasing their top 100 this year?
"In 1962 I was named Minor League Player of the Year. It was my second season in the Bigs." - Mr. Baseball, Bob Uecker
by prince of power on Feb 22, 2010 4:20 PM EST reply actions
Being a Twins fan
I like that your being generous to Aaron Hicks, Kyle Gibson, Wilson Ramos, and Ben Revere
+ Miguel Sano is in there
I can’t remember a time since 2003-‘04 since the Twins have had 5 top 100 prospeects…
With that said, I believe Revere will be in the 90-105 range and Gibson can’t possibly be quite that high can he?
Lets go get Adrian Gonzalez..... how do you say holy shit! - ~en espanol ?
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Feb 22, 2010 5:52 PM EST reply actions
Why is everyone so obsessed with Chapman?
Please, correct me if Im wrong, but he is 21 and has a fastball.. that’s fast. Thats about it. His control is bad and he doesnt have/use his secondary pitches… Is there something Im missing? Seems like he is on the hype roller coaster..
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Feb 22, 2010 7:06 PM EST reply actions
Lefty + good fastball = incredible prospect
Don’t you know?
"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond
I agree
but he only has a fastball…. for 21, shouldnt he have a little more? Especially for the people who feel he is a top 10 guy… how?
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Feb 22, 2010 7:19 PM EST up reply actions
it has nothing to do with team
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Feb 22, 2010 11:02 PM EST up reply actions
thanks for your input
you’ve been so helpful in this conversation
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Feb 22, 2010 11:09 PM EST up reply actions
He has an 80 fastball (per the BA podcast) and a potentially plus slider to go with great athleticism. His control is a problem right now, but he has a floor of a late inning reliever and an ace ceiling. He’s a top 20 prospect.
you said it yourself in your responce to OldProspects
He has the talent but is inconsistent. Given that he has a FB thats amazing at times, but other times isnt, has a slider that is more inconsistent than him and horrible control. And yet he is top 20? You realize that if you have two pitches, no matter how good, you will be a reliever. If you have a fastball and nothing else… you will be a reliever who has an average career, or a AAAA player.
Given that he is already 21/22(I dont know his exact age), shouldnt he have either a second pitch or better control? I mean, isnt he is a similar class as a guy like Ethan Martin then? Great fastball, inconsistent breaking pitches and lack of control? They both have ace potential, or they could each be relievers or worse… yet, Chapman is 24 and Martin is 81…
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Feb 22, 2010 11:08 PM EST up reply actions
chapman is left handed..
and a hyped up cuban… thats why there is a 55 spot difference
by matthewmafa on Feb 22, 2010 11:35 PM EST up reply actions
that is what Im saying
Is throwing left handed, while having similar control/pitches (even though he is nearly a year and a half older) worth 55 spots?
I just find it amazing the hype got him 55 spots!
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Feb 22, 2010 11:55 PM EST up reply actions
Ethan Martin does not have an 80 fastball
and Ethan Martin couldn’t step in right now and be a back of the bullpen arm. Chapman can and he also has a tremendous ceiling.
Except here's my question
If his stuff is so good, then how has he had an ERA of 4.03 in the Cuban League? http://soxbronzetitan.wordpress.com/2009/07/14/aroldis-chapmans-cuban-league-stats/ Are the hitters there that good, or is he a lot more inconsistent than people suggest? I suspect the latter because though some times he’s credited with an 80 fastball, other times they say that it tops out in the low 90s.
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by OldProspects on Feb 22, 2010 10:40 PM EST up reply actions
I’ve never seen any Cuban baseball to know the talent level. He has control issues and his off speed stuff is inconsistent so I would guess that that was the main culprit. The talent is certainly there though and he’s ranked because of the talent. I’ve never seen any reports of his fastball in the low 90. From the WBC gameday data, his average fastball was 94.6 and he topped out at over 100. He’s not going to sit in the upper 90s, but he’s one of the hardest throwing lefties around.
He has control issues and his offspeed stuff is inconsistent
But he could step in and be an effective reliever now?
"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond
Yes
His fastball would be even better in short stints and he could get by on one premier pitch (and a pitch that’s plus when he has control of it).
In the majors
I really dont think it matters how good your fastball is. Eventually, the hitters will scout the movement and the speed. You need other pitches.
Hell, look at Clayton Kershaw. He had the 2nd best fastball last season. Without the curve and slider, he would have failed(yes, I know he is a starter, but the same idea applies)
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Feb 23, 2010 11:44 PM EST up reply actions
No the same idea doesn't apply
Relievers do not need anywhere near as deep of repertoires as starters. They can get by on one premier pitch and a couple of fringe pitches.
Let’s take a look at the top fastball percentages:
Mike MacDougal: 89.9%
Mark Thornton: 89%
David Aardsma: 87.7%
Ronald Belisario: 85.3%
Grant Balfour: 83.7%
Octavio Dotel: 82.4%
Jonathan Papelbon: 81.5%
Merkin Valdez: 80.3%
and here’s one for you:
Jonathan Broxton: 73.7%
Mariano Rivera threw his cutter 93% of the time.
There are guys with varying success on that list. Additionally, Chapman does have other pitches they just aren’t consistently plus pitches.
MacDougal-sucks
Thornton-does not suck
Aardsma- isnt that great of a pitcher, has had one good season in the majors
Belisario-uses multiple types of fastballs. He has a 4 seamer, a 2 seamer and a cutter. All have good movement.
Balfour- had an amazing year in 08, but has sucked in 09, 07, 01, 03, 04.
Dotel- uses a slider to counter the fastball. Good numbers
Papelbon- Uses 3 pitches to dominate. I believe he has two fastballs, although Im not sure
Valdez-has sucked. He is not a good pitcher
Broxton-Im surprised he didnt use it more. Even so, he has a strong slider as well to counter the fastball.
Mo-he is in a class of his own. He is one of the few that is an exception.
Looking at your list, you have a a guy who sucks, a guy who has put up good numbers, a pitcher who has had one good year, a guy who uses not one fastball, but 3 separate ones, a one hit wonder, a guy who needs his slider to work to have his fastball, a closer with 3 pitches, another guy who is not a good pitcher, a closer who needs his plus slider as well as his plus-plus fastball and an exception.
Not great odds. The guys who have had good/great success need a second pitch that is a good pitch to survive. Chapman doesnt have that. Oh, and most of the guys who are extremely dominate have great control as well, something that Chapman doesnt have.
If I was running the Reds, I let Chapman get a year in the minors and then call him up. Way too many question marks, IMO, to throw him into any MLB game, relief or starting
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Feb 24, 2010 5:05 PM EST up reply actions
honorable mentions
64-knapp
68-colome
72-leake
81-t. d’arnoud
90-darnell
93-aumont
96-neal
Close
You came pretty close. And Hak Ju Lee didn’t make it.
he hit 4
out of 100… not sure thats very close. he did have some pretty close misses though, not bad overall
just checked my list in comparison
i hit 10 exactly, and had Vitters and Moustakas switched with them, lol.
I don’t try to match my list with BA, but obviously I have close to the same line-of-thinking
Results
Well, I did about as well as I expected. I missed 10 names completely, which is pretty much par for the course. Only 1 player (White) that I didnt have among my 135 names listed, which I think is pretty good. I updated the original post w the players actual BA ranking in parens, and indicated placements that I thought I missed on.
I could swear I heard John Manuel say in the BA chat that Hosmer was on. Surprised to see that Myers missed, too. Still, KC has a bunch of very good prosepcts at the top of their system.
Some observations: the most complete surprise was White, who was #9 on the Cleveland list and was #65 overall. Weglarz, Brantley, Carrasco and Rondon all were ranked above him and didnt get on. Highly rated in college, but I havent heard anyone hyping him lately.
Hagadone was another real surprise. Great arm, but injury history, uncertain that he can be a starter, old for his leagues, limited pro experience. That doesnt usually add up to #44 overall prospect.
It surprised me that Dominguez was completely left off. His defense supposedly is stellar, and while his bat doesnt project to be special, he’s held his own.
Hosmer had a rough year, but it would seem that someone whis potential, who was #24 on last year’s list and who still is just 20 y/o deserves to get some slack for just one mediocre season, especially w his eye problems possibly factoring in significantly.
Saunders and Martinez seemed to have similar years in that they each hit very well at AAA in about half a season and didnt do much at MLB in limited ABs but they went in opposite directions from last year: Saunders went from #65 to #30 and Martinez from #30 to #77.
Looks like BA was not much affected by the injury histories of Parker and Scheppers.
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