Sunday Discussion: Community Projection for Alcides Escobar

by John Sickels on Feb 21, 2010 8:00 AM EST

I want to start doing some community projections as spring training gets started. First on the list is Milwaukee Brewers rookie shortstop Alcides Escobar.

Please project the following stats for Escobar.

Games
At-bats
Runs scored
Hits
Doubles
Triples
Homers
Walks
Strikeouts
Stolen bases/caught stealing
Batting average (make sure the numbers are correct)
I'll calculate the SLG and OBP for you.

Please list the numbers in that order so I can get them in a spreadsheet more easily. I will total them up and post the results on Wednesday.

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I'll give it a run

Games – 125
At-bats – 501
Runs scored – 78
Hits – 130
Doubles – 20
Triples – 6
Homers – 3
Walks – 31
Strikeouts – 88
Stolen bases/caught stealing – 33/12
Batting average (make sure the numbers are correct) – .260
I’ll calculate the SLG and OBP for you.

by LordKarl on Feb 21, 2010 10:09 AM EST reply actions

Heh...

Not sure how to edit and remove the copied and pasted last line. Yep, newb poster, longtime reader.

by LordKarl on Feb 21, 2010 10:13 AM EST up reply actions

Here's mine

Games – 145
At-bats – 612
Runs scored – 91
Hits – 171
Doubles – 24
Triples – 7
Homers – 4
Walks – 34
Strikeouts – 97
Stolen bases/caught stealing – 42/14
Batting average (make sure the numbers are correct) – .280

by Summa Slugga on Feb 21, 2010 10:29 AM EST reply actions

I like these, but look how off the Gary Matthews one we did was

Games- 137
At-bats- 487
Runs scored- 57
Hits- 123
Doubles- 13
Triples- 5
Homers- 3
Walks- 27
Strikeouts- 89
Stolen bases/caught stealing- 21/7
Batting average- .253

I’m obviously not as high on him as others

by ScottAZ on Feb 21, 2010 10:31 AM EST reply actions

+1

on this…I am not very high on him at all.

by sjkqw on Feb 21, 2010 1:42 PM EST up reply actions

I think he was thought of as a defensive replacement and/or utility infielder by some people.

by JetSam on Feb 21, 2010 6:25 PM EST up reply actions

Nobody

with any credibility whatsoever has ever called Alcides Escobar a utility infielder. He’s one of the best defensive shortstops alive. He’ll be an empty batting average guy with plus contact and weak secondary skills, and could potentially develop into more offensively, but any offense they get from him is icing on the cake.

by slamcactus on Feb 21, 2010 7:25 PM EST up reply actions

I like him but it'll take some time

Games: 131
At-bats: 441
Runs scored: 61
Hits: 115
Doubles: 24
Triples: 3
Homers: 4
Walks: 25
Strikeouts: 71
Stolen bases/caught stealing: 23/5
Batting average: .261

by raygie on Feb 21, 2010 10:44 AM EST reply actions

Alcides Escobar

Games – 130
At-bats – 485
Runs scored – 78
Hits – 133
Doubles – 22
Triples – 4
Homers – 3
Walks – 32
Strikeouts – 85
Stolen bases/caught stealing – 28/10
Batting average .274

Good Defensive Player whose Batting Ave. may be higher than my projection.

by Bear4499 on Feb 21, 2010 10:59 AM EST reply actions

Projection:

Games: 138
At-bats: 552
Runs scored: 82
Hits: 164
Doubles: 24
Triples: 7
Homers: 5
Walks: 35
Strikeouts: 68
Stolen bases/caught stealing: 29/8
Batting average: .297

by Jeff Reese on Feb 21, 2010 11:18 AM EST reply actions

Escobar Pojection

Games- 140
At-bats- 550
Runs scored- 79
Hits- 160
Doubles- 32
Triples- 7
Homers- 5
Walks- 43
Strikeouts- 84
Stolen bases/caught stealing- 37/10
Batting average (make sure the numbers are correct) .291
OBP- .339
SLG- .375

by METSMETSMETS on Feb 21, 2010 12:16 PM EST reply actions

Games – 115
At-bats – 417
Runs scored – 44
Hits – 107
Doubles – 15
Triples – 4
Homers – 3
Walks – 18
Strikeouts – 72
Stolen bases/caught stealing – 18
Batting average – .257

I just dont think his bat is ready (or that good to begin with): .257/.299/.386. I think his defense is ready and should be excellent, though.

by alskor on Feb 21, 2010 12:26 PM EST reply actions

+1

by miraclemets on Feb 21, 2010 1:18 PM EST up reply actions

I just realized I forgot caught stealing

I’ll say 5 CS

by alskor on Feb 21, 2010 1:50 PM EST up reply actions

Are you sure that's the right SLG?

by METSMETSMETS on Feb 21, 2010 3:10 PM EST up reply actions

Yup... why?

(1 X 107 H) + (2 X 15 2B) + (3 X 4 3B) + (4 X 3 HR) ÷ 417 ABs

107 + 30 + 12 + 12 ÷ 417

161 ÷ 417 = 0.386

by alskor on Feb 21, 2010 5:34 PM EST up reply actions

It should be:

(1 X 85 1B) + (2 X 15 2B) + (3 X 4 3B) + (4 X 3 HR) ÷ 417 ABs

That would give you a SLG of .333

by Jeff Reese on Feb 21, 2010 5:45 PM EST up reply actions

Ah, crap.

Totally got me. Hs, not singles. Sorry, been trying to write something

by alskor on Feb 21, 2010 5:48 PM EST up reply actions

alskor you calculated SLG incorrectly

SLG = (1B + 2×2B + 3×3B + 4xHR) / AB

by jaroche6 on Feb 21, 2010 5:48 PM EST up reply actions

Ah I see..

above you’ve actually projected him for a SLG of .481 (!). Your math is off. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slugging_percentage

That’s a lot of extra base hits you have him down for.

In addition, I noticed before you have him with the highest walk percentage of any projection so far: >7%. Which would be the highest rate he’s ever had. Pretty optimistic for his rookie season IMO. He walked 4 times last year in 38 games (134 PAs) for a walk rate of ~3%.

by alskor on Feb 21, 2010 5:41 PM EST up reply actions

In addition

I believe you’re actually projecting him for an OBP of .369, not .339.

(160 H + 43 BB) ÷ 550 ABs

203 ÷ 550 = .369 OBP

Uh… so either those numbers are off, or you’re projecting him for .291/.369/.481…

by alskor on Feb 21, 2010 5:47 PM EST up reply actions

Ha!

PAs! Way off today!

by alskor on Feb 21, 2010 5:55 PM EST up reply actions

haahha

Imagine a player getting a .481 SLG with 5 homers

by METSMETSMETS on Feb 21, 2010 11:01 PM EST up reply actions

Solid

Early in the year It’ll be really easy for Macha to go with vet Craig Counsell if he struggles but, I think his bat will catch fire and he’ll hold down the spot with a nice second half. I think he’ll actually win the GG as a rookie.

G – 148
AB – 524
R – 78
H – 145
2B – 20
3B – 4
HR – 3
BB – 32
K’s – 80
SB/CS – 36/12
AVG – .277

Man, this kid is going to POPULAR I think he’ll struggle some in the first-half then turn it on and have a pretty good rookie season. Have fun watching him swipe bags, score runs and, make spectacular plays this year. Looks like an Andrus-type ROY season to me possibly.

by casejud on Feb 21, 2010 2:04 PM EST reply actions

Escobar projection

Games – 149
At-bats – 510
Runs scored – 54
Hits – 126
Doubles – 16
Triples – 7
Homers – 2
Walks – 26
Strikeouts – 79
Stolen bases/caught stealing – 25/ 8
Batting average – .247

Lets go get Adrian Gonzalez..... how do you say holy shit! - ~en espanol ?

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Feb 21, 2010 2:23 PM EST reply actions

Games 118
ABS – 425
Runs – 40
Hits – 107
Doubles – 14
Triples – 1
HRs – 3
BBs – 15
Ks – 64
SBs – 17/6
avg. – .252

Freude, schoener Goetterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.

by t ball on Feb 21, 2010 2:51 PM EST reply actions

Games – 147
At-bats – 504
Runs scored – 67
Hits – 133
Doubles – 19
Triples – 4
Homers – 6
Walks – 26
Strikeouts – 73
Stolen bases/caught stealing – 26/9
Batting average – .264

by seabass on Feb 21, 2010 3:27 PM EST reply actions

Games – 129
At-bats – 431
Runs scored – 53
Hits – 120
Doubles -14
Triples – 4
Homers – 3
Walks – 22
Strikeouts – 81
Stolen bases/caught stealing – 19/8
Batting average (make sure the numbers are correct) – .278

#269: Listen to SPORTS ROUNDUP every Sunday at 7:00pm at WVBR.com

by mrmetaa on Feb 21, 2010 6:26 PM EST reply actions

Games 150
At-bats 580
Runs scored 67
Hits 160
Doubles 15
Triples 6
Homers 4
Walks 22
Strikeouts 65
Stolen bases/caught stealing 27-7
Batting average .276

by slamcactus on Feb 21, 2010 7:28 PM EST reply actions