Chris Tillman
Fastball
- 4seam is around 93-94 that occasionally hits 96. I saw one reading of 99. Flat fastball but great velocity. Command is poor especially when he is overthrowing (normal problem though).
- 2seam is around 90 with good boring action. Great for ruining bats of RH hitters. Very little downward action. Not to be used as a feature pitch though. In spots can be a very good weapon.
Curveball
- Some games is more of a slurve. Other games can be 12-6 curve. Also loses grip and sails a lot high, bounces too many. Not too big a deal though, it should improve over time.
- Can be a devastating pitch at times.
Changeup
- Very flat but at least good arm action.
- I heard it was a split-change. But after seeing it and seeing a closeup of the grip it's a circle-change. It's something he has been working on this season.
- Sometimes he gets nice tail action on it making it a real weapon against LH hitters. Maybe 2 per game.
- Needs a lot of work. He must get consistent tail action or must get some solid downward motion. It's very flat. When you combine with a flat fastball it's not good.
Prognosis
- He throws very hard. But gets hit incredibly hard. I haven't seen a guy with his stuff get hit as hard as he does in a while.
- Getting consistency in his curve is a must. I expect it will happen, just a matter of repetitions. The question is really a matter if it becomes a consistent slurve (ughh), the consistent dominant curve, or something in between
- Unless that curve becomes dominant he needs something against LH hitters. That fastball is too hittable. He needs that change to improve. If he does then the fastball will play bigger.
- He could improve fastball command and the other issues would be a lot less important. After all 95 on the paint with an erratic but sometimes dominant curve and a get me over change can put up good numbers. I just don't see the command changing over night. He puts far too many in very hittable areas.
He is talented but raw. With the velocity he has and the ability to occasionally get very good breaking stuff I see a lot of potential. Many reports I hear say potential ace and worst case #3. I think that is overstating it a lot. Sure, he could become an ace. But there is a lot of work ahead. And he could be an awful lot worse than a #3.
I really like him and his upside. Of course I won't be touching him in any league though, too many see him as the equivalent of a player like Brett Anderson.
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This is a sweet report
Thanks for putting it together. He has the stuff to be successful, I just hope the Orioles are patient with him. If they bounce him around between AAA and the MLB, or the rotation and the bullpen, he’ll have a hard time putting it together. He just needs some time.
Hmmmmm
Changeup: very flat but at least good arm action
Wow, I really disagree. His change has fade and depth. I think it’s better than his curve.
by BrosbeforeShaincoes on Feb 3, 2010 2:27 AM EST reply actions
BJB
I read an interesting article about OF’ers tracking fly balls. It was a study done by Duke. The gist of it was that based on their tests the OF was not tracking the fly ball by trajectory but by velocity differential. They did virtual reality tests and rigged it so the OF couldn’t track by trajectory since they were given a fake trajectory. And yet the OF still tracked and caught the ball.
I’m wondering if the same holds true for hitters facing breaking balls. Are hitters swinging over curveballs based on trajectory? Or are they tracking the velocity and the dramatic slow down (from spin, gravity) is what is causing them to miss?
Obviously with a very slow bending curve the trajectory is easy to follow and the velocity is a steady curve. But with late movement pitches both are a factor.
any thoughts?
interesting
do you have a link to the journal article? it’s tough for me to say much without knowing a little more about how they controlled these factors. for instance, what does it mean to give a fake trajectory? i can certainly see how velocity is a major factor (and a MUCH easier factor for your nervous system to track), but i’m having trouble understanding what it means to track a ball WITHOUT knowing the trajectory.
most obviously, velocity IS directional, so i’m not sure what it means to ignore trajectory but know velocity. further, if they just mean “speed,” then it seems transparently false: a linedrive traveling at 80 mph will surely land in a different place than a popup traveling at the same speed.
the two ways i can make sense of it is if they mean either:
1) people calculate trajectory based on the DECELERATION/ACCELERATION of a baseball (as it goes up then down respectively)…..since balls more on a line experience closer to a flatline in velocity, or
2) this is measured by “speed at which the ball approaches the player’s current location”
Anyway, I could be totally missing the point. I’d just like to read more to see what they/you mean.
Also, as for your hypothesis, I’m similarly not sure I get what the difference is. Maybe my definition of “trajectory” is just wrong, and it’s a term of art I don’t know. But it seems like all these people are saying is “velocity is the physical characteristic by which people CALCULATE where the location of a ball will be at a certain point in time.” In that case, I’m not sure what difference it makes.
Or are you suggesting curveballs (for some reason I’m not understanding) have a misleading trajectory given their velocity? I’m just confused.
I do know that tracking pitches is really complicated from a cognitive standpoint — I remember seeing an article a while back that showed that, for major league speed pitches, hitters essentially had to make the go/no-go decision before the pitched is even RELEASED. Meaning figuring out what factors affect why curveballs are tricky is an even more difficult problem.
Anyway, physics/mechanics has never been my thing, so I’m not I’ll have much to add.
here is the link
http://www.journalofvision.org/9/13/14/
As far as the curveballs, etc. Fastballs have less velocity decrease. That’s pretty apparent. I believe pitches like a curve have a larger drop-off (percentile) in velocity as it approaches the plate. I’m not sure if this is true but I believe so.
Now the question is: are they failing to see the arc and calculate trajectory of where the ball will land? Or are they failing to calculate when the ball will cross. I don’t think I have a firm enough grasp of the concept yet.
And even if we do it might not make a difference which it is. I’d really love to know though.
read the article
i have to say, i’m not sure the conclusions from this piece relate to the difficulty in hitting curveballs (at least at more than a basic level).
1) one of the main caveats of the “flyball problem” that they mention right off the bat is that, because of the distance between the fielder and ball, a great deal of visual information is unavailable to outfielders (for instance, they mention the ball’s SPIN, which batters quite obviously detect). but cues like motion parallax and binocular disparity will DEFINITELY be used when perceiving a pitch thrown from 60’6".
2) more importantly, two of the three models tested (including the one they conclude is correct) cannot be relevant to hitting. they are concerned with online updating in the circumstance in which your visual field is moving — and what movements you make in response.
in contrast, any hitting coach worth his salt will tell you the key to good hitting is to keep your head/eyes still as possible. any adjust you make is PURELY with your hands.
what’s the difference? regardless of HOW your sensorimotor system predicts versus makes online updates, it certainly WON’T have to do with making movements that keep your body in a certain relationship with some physical characteristic (velocity, acceleration, etc) with the ball. this actually makes a prediction model (trajectory) MORE likely……although i think, generally speaking, the trajectory model sounds massively out of date with any modern understanding of perceptual sciences. however, it does offer a jumpoff point for your hands to make adjustments.
having said all that, i think the last question you asked still might have any answer, even if i don’t think this article answers it. however, in game situations, i’m not sure it’s relevant. why do i say that? because, in order to ask this question, you would need to have a scenario in which the hitter/test-subject KNEW curveballs were coming. in a game, both timing and location obviously play a role, as hitters are geared up for a certain type of pitch and, even when they recognize they will receive a curveball early, may not be able to readjust in time along either time OR space.
in a lab scenario — interesting question though. i’m not sure i could make a particularly educated prediction about which one it is people would underlyingly be “off” on. though it’s still difficult to separate the two apart. for instance, pretend you swing “too early,” as in the ball hasn’t crossed the classic hitting zone yet. were you really off on time? or did you miscalculate location, meaning you THOUGHT the ball would be in that space and were tricked by the trajectory of the ball?
one final thought — why is it that “slurvey” curveballs are so much easier to hit? and why is it that breaking balls are so much more effective coming from same-handed pitchers?
clearly, this has SOMETHING to do with perception. (while i can make some nonperceptual arguments, i don’t think any are sufficiently large to explain the differences, and most have perceptual elements intertwined with WHY the hands can’t make the adjustment in time.)
so the question is, would understanding why these two types of pitches (12-6 curves and, e.g., sliders from lefties to lefties) are tough for hitters to hit in comparison to their counterparts help explain how it is hitters track breaking pitches?
good point
That makes total sense as far as being stationary.
as far as slurve pitches … I think that part is easy. Whether it helps or not is a different issue.
Slurve pitches may break more than a 12 to 6 curve. Part of the reason it’s easier to track is the break is on 2 planes. So there is a gradual break on one plane, and another gradual break on another plane. Quality slurves are pitches that break out of the zone and the hitter can’t reach. I would suspect if you watch a hitter facing a slurve their eyes would still be on the ball as they miss it or hit off the end of the bat.
But when it’s a 12 to 6 I would suspect their eyes lose track of the ball thus their hands can’t react.
As we know it’s hard late break that is hardest to hit. How much of that is the fact that the later we need to change the swing plane the harder (and more committed on the swing) it is? Or is their something in our perception that allows us to see movement better far away and has a harder time tracking hard movement when it is very close?
For sliders I would think much of it is based on location. LH to LH the slider would typically start middle to outside edge and then break off the plate and down. Starting at you then breaking away. Opposite handed have to break the ball towards you. Is there more to it than that, I’m not sure.
btw – when thinking about being “too early” vs. missing location I believe it’s some combination of both. Probably more location though.
From swinging and missing at a lot of curveballs in my lifetime
I would say it’s not the movement that kills the hitter but the velocity. You can see a pitch released and now where it’ll end up by the spin, hand motion, arm motion, body movements… but I don’t how many times I swung through a curve because the bat was already through the hitting zone when the ball got there…
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
Also
I think this is your best writeup yet. REALLY enjoyed it. Tillman’s the first pitcher you’ve written about who I haven’t really seen pitch, and yet I feel like I have a great sense of him after reading this post.
Great stuff!
Very busy right now, but I’ll try to respond a little more to this post and the last few later tonight or tomorrow.
These are great.
I know you aren’t taking requests, but I’m hoping you do one of these for Christian Friedrich.
sorry
I do listen to requests. But I only do write-ups where I can see quite a few games. I don’t have access to video of minor league games (other than the standard youtube etc.).
I Wish...
You had a different angle to view things from. The TV camera angle can be very deceptive and eliminate a lot of the break!
I agree
multiple angles would be best. I don’t think the tv angle eliminates any break. It’s just that the break will appear smaller when it’s far away and larger when it’s close. To me this isn’t a big deal. What is a big deal is the late life on a pitch. That explosiveness or late break.
I typically watch hitters reactions, the way they swing, etc. It takes a bit of time to pickup on this where if you did have an angle behind the plate you would see it right away.
but reaction
isn’t all about movement, a lot is based on deception – which maybe is something tillman does not own at this point.
good stuff
Very nice job Pedrophile. I love young pitchers and I love analyzing them to death!
I’d like to know what you think about Kris Medlen. He was absolutely dominant in the minors and while he struggled as a starter, he was lights out as a reliever.
thanks
and today’s your lucky day ;)
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/1/31/1285360/kris-medlen
Yeah, pitching is what makes me love baseball so much.
Pedrophile
think you can do one on Brad Lincoln?

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