BP Astros Top 11 Prospects
by The Colonel on Feb 2, 2010 7:51 PM EST
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Four-Star Prospects
1. Jio Mier, SS
2. Jason Castro, C
Three-Star Prospects
3. Jordan Lyles, RHP
4. Tanner Bushue, RHP
5. Ross Seaton, RHP
6. Chia-Jen Lo, RHP
7. Tommy Manzella, SS
8. Samuel Gervacio, RHP
Two-Star Prospects
9. T.J. Steele, OF
10. Jon Gaston, OF
11. Koby Clemens, C
Four More:
12. Jay Austin, OF: It’s hard not to get excited about the tools, but he’s far from being a baseball player.
13. Henry Villar, RHP: This undersized righty doesn't have a ton of stuff, but his command and control are outstanding.
14. Telvin Nash, OF: A 2009 third-rounder, Nash is beefy and has plenty of power, but he’s very raw.
15. Brian Bogusevic, OF: A converted pitcher, Bogusevic scuffled at Triple-A, but he could still end up as a fourth outfielder.
1. Jio Mier, SS
DOB: 8/26/90
Height/Weight: 6-2/175
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: 1st round, 2009, Bonita HS (CA)
2009 Stats: .276/.380/.484 at Rookie-level (51 G)
Last Year’s Ranking: Did not qualify
Year in Review: Last year's first-round pick was even better than advertised in his pro debut.
The Good: While it was Mier's glove that got him drafted in the first round, his bat has been more than a pleasant surprise. He understands the strike zone well, has good bat speed, and showed an impressive ability to drive the ball, with some scouts projecting major-league average power down the road. Defensively, he was the best high school shortstop in the draft, with above-average instincts, range, actions, and arm strength. He's a tick above average as a baserunner.
The Bad: Mier fell in love with his power at times during his debut, getting pull-conscious and over-swinging when he would have been best served by using all fields. He needs to be more consistent defensively, as he's as capable of making the spectacular play as he is of booting the routine grounder.
Ephemera: Bonita High's most famous alumni is 1946 Heisman Trophy winner Glenn Davis.
Perfect World Projection: Mier could be an above-average everyday shortstop and an occasional All-Star.
Path to the Big Leagues: While he's a long way from the big leagues, it's hard to see Mier as anything but the Astros' shortstop of the future.
Timetable: Mier will make a highly-anticipated full-season debut at Low-A Lexington, and he has the ability to upgrade his star status to a full five stars 12 months from now.
2. Jason Castro, C
DOB: 6/18/87
Height/Weight: 6-3/245
Bats/Throws: L/R
Drafted/Signed: 1st round, 2008, Stanford University
2009 Stats: .309/.399/.517 at High-A (56 G); .293/.362/.385 at Double-A (63 G)
Last Year’s Ranking: 1
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Tommy Manzella
Is this guy really a 3-star prospect? He’s 27 on Opening Day. I’ve heard he’s good defensively but his .289 / .339 / .417 line in AAA with his .341 BABIP makes me think he won’t hit much.
According to Minor League Splits his MLE is .244 / .284 / .344.
John lumps him into the C’s in the Astros Top 20.
Is he really going to be the starting SS in Houston? Can anyone shed some light on Manzella and give some comps?
Brilliant Question, Colonel...
I will answer your beautifully framed question, so eloquently written and thought out. I found some Astros blog that compared Adam Everett to Manzella:
http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2009/9/3/1014402/tommy-manzella-vs-adam-everett
Along with this Ed Wade quote straight from Ed Wade’s mouth:
“At this point, we’re prepared to commit to Tommy Manzella playing shortstop.”
Looks like Manzella is the starting SS in Houston.
lol
nice! Love the self-answer response
by ChalupaCabrera on Feb 2, 2010 11:27 PM EST up reply actions
Mier
Well, I was higher on him, but the reports from BA and BP have soured me a bit. Not as much upside as I thought.
eh
KG is obviously quite high on him. I am pretty high on him myself, but I wouldn’t have him #1.
by auclairkeithbc on Feb 2, 2010 9:14 PM EST up reply actions
he doesn't have a ton of upside though
but his reasonable floor is so much higher than green and gordon and beckham. you could even argue that his floor is higher than brignac, and of course his ceiling is higher than him.
by auclairkeithbc on Feb 2, 2010 9:15 PM EST up reply actions
I absolutely disagree with that
A HS short stop does not have a higher floor than Grant Green or Reid Brignac.
well
green isn’t going to necessarily make it defensively. there is nothing that suggests that is the case for mier. i’m not saying he has a definitively higher floor than brignac though, but it is arguable. projectable floor. i maybe use the term differently than most. with all prospects you never know, and the floor is pretty much always a total bust, but even if brignac has a 10% chance to be a total bust and mier has a 20% chance to be a total bust, it doesn’t affect what i consider their floors. brignac hasn’t established a reasonable floor much higher than a weak major league starter. there is very little reason to think mier won’t be at least a weak major league starting SS.
by auclairkeithbc on Feb 2, 2010 9:33 PM EST up reply actions
Stop drinking the Minute Maid
I suspect if Mier was a Cardinals or Pirates prospect you wouldn’t be quite as supportive with KG on this one.
by two fishsticks on Feb 2, 2010 11:38 PM EST up reply actions
Huh?
KG has said that Mier has a higher floor than any/all of Green, Beckham, or Gordon? Can you link to that please?
RIP Nick Adenhart
where did he say
“lower floor. lower ceiling”
by auclairkeithbc on Feb 3, 2010 11:38 AM EST up reply actions
he seems more supportive of mier
than i am generally. that is my point. forget dee gordon, as my opinion of him isn’t shared by the majority.
by auclairkeithbc on Feb 3, 2010 11:39 AM EST up reply actions
also
“While he’s a long way from the big leagues, it’s hard to see Mier as anything but the Astros’ shortstop of the future.”
I’ve seen Green and Gordon and Beckham’s future as a major league SS questioned. Maybe not from KG though. But they are not locks, as KG apparently thinks Mier is.
by auclairkeithbc on Feb 3, 2010 11:40 AM EST up reply actions
Context
The line you quote from KG is about Mier’s path to the bigs, there is no one entrenched at SS currently and there isn’t anyone of real note ahead of him in the system. That is why he is the SS of the future, he’s not saying he’s guaranteed to be a big league SS. Goldstein isn’t saying that Mier’s floor is that of a MLB starter, that would be crazy to project for a HS kid.
On KG being more supportive of Mier, eh…ranks him #1 in the system, but he’s still a 4 star prospect(51-100 range). That really isn’t any higher than you’ve said you have him, it’s that he is lower on Castro than you are, don’t read anything extra in there.
This reasonable and projectable floor stuff…I don’t really get what you mean by these terms. To the point I earlier referenced, you stated that Mier has a much higher reasonable floor than Green/Gordon/Beckham. jar75 and alskor both disagreed, with alskor saying Mier has a lower floor, to which you replied “I with KG on this one”. Are you taking his ranking of Mier as the #1 prospect in the Astros organization and assuming he feels Mier has a high floor? I think that is a very wrong assumption to make. The farther away a player is from the majors, the lower the floor for the most part. It’s because there is so much room for things to not develop or go wrong. Mier’s biggest plus right now is his defense, and while his bat was impressive in rookie ball there are still questions about it and how he hits as he moves up the ladder will really determine what he becomes.
RIP Nick Adenhart
ugh
i really don’t want to go over this again and again with you. you say so many different things in one post that it takes forever to answer. you disagree with me, fine. i don’t really think KG is right about everything either, but his view of mier is much much higher than i expected it to be. that’s all. so many people here love setting up strawmen to attack. continue doing so if you must. defend yourself here, and explain yourself ad nauseam again if you must. it is getting old.
by auclairkeithbc on Feb 3, 2010 1:45 PM EST up reply actions
But... how is KG's view of Mier higher than you thought it would be?
Youve been pimping him for the CPL for awhile now, which is at #46 currently – KG has given him 4 stars, indicating he doesnt think he’s a top 50 prospect…
Replied to quickly
I don’t think it’s a case of KG being higher on Mier as it is KG is lower on Castro than auclairkeith is. That seems to be part of the issue here actually, he’s taking one thing and trying to make it mean something else.
RIP Nick Adenhart
Sorry
You made three replies to my original comment, it’s easier for me to make just one reply. Sorry that doesn’t work for you, but you won’t have to worry about it anymore. I’m not going to have a one sided conversation here. You make a post, I ask for clarity. You don’t clarify. You try and put the burden of proof onto me instead of either backing up your claim or saying maybe you were wrong or misspoke. You drop part of the comment I originally questioned(Gordon) and say that Goldstein is higher on Mier than you are(which isn’t really true since you’re both putting him in the same prospect range). You then take a quote out of context and try and use it to prove your point. I point these things out and instead of responding to them, you claim I’m setting up a strawman, etc. Not the case, you’re just dodging the issue at hand. No worries, I’ll just remember to pay no attention to anything you say on this site from here on out.
RIP Nick Adenhart
some scouts...
he is definitely a stuff guy, not a pitchability guy.
by auclairkeithbc on Feb 2, 2010 9:42 PM EST up reply actions
Basically, the scouts he talked to didn't like his stuff
Whereas Ive heard a lot of good things about his stuff and velocity bumping up this year…
Project Prospect talked to "multiple scouts" about Lyles as well...
http://projectprospect.com/article/2009/10/20/jordan-lyles-scouting-report
“The scouts I spoke with each named a handful of pitching prospects in the South Atlantic League alone who impressed them more than Lyles.”
Foster himself, who watched 25% of his innings, does a detailed examination of his stuff and it’s not what you’d expect for a guy who put up the numbers he did. Foster claimed he dominated with an 89-92 two-seamer, well commanded, but with little movement, and up in the zone. Also , he can’t locate his four-seamer, scouts don’t like his curve (but Foster thought it was okay), and not much of a changeup to speak of (though he can and does throw the curve and change for strikes). Repeatable mechanics. Article is worth a read. It’s an encouraging report for a 19 year old in Low A, but far less than the hype that Lyles is receiving in some quarters (already getting votes on the community list for example).
by AgitationStation on Feb 3, 2010 4:11 AM EST up reply actions
this seems the safest way to think about Lyles
Good prospect who does the right things to get him to the majors, but he’s going to have to upgrade his stuff somewhere to get past back of the rotation status. On the bright side, he’s young and he’s made some solid improvements in the past.
There’s a long list of things that could help him. Improving command of his 4 seamer (which would probably help him in prospect circles as he “suddenly” picks up a couple of MPH from time to time), refine his curve, develop his change, learn to work down in the zone. I know there’s been a lot of talk about pushing him to AA, and while I could see him putting up solid numbers there, I really don’t think it would be as good for his long-term development as letting him go to the Cal League. Sure the numbers might not be pretty there (or at least not as good as they might be in AA), but nobody cares about what he does there at age 19 as long as it means he’s a better pitcher at age 22-23.
Giving Lyles as much time as possible to develop his stuff before he faces hitters who will make him pay for not having it is the best way to maximize his chances of breaking out.
I'd love to see something, anything on Fernando Abad
Nobody seems to have scouted him or they think so little of him that they never see fit to mention him. I know he doesn’t have much in the way of stuff and is a bit old, but it’s hard to argue with a career 6.87K/BB in four seasons.
Is he just flying under the radar, or do the scouts absolutely hate him?
Greg Maddux
…threw in the mid to high 80s
couldn’t resist…
by PleasedtoNietzsche on Feb 3, 2010 10:05 PM EST up reply actions
except
that maddux dialed it up often, even late in his career…i was at a cubs game of his near the end and he threw three 90+ mph pitches in a row….he sat in the mid 80s, but he always could dial up the 90+ if he wanted….he just didn’t NEED to….99.9999999999% of the human population will need to…
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Feb 3, 2010 10:57 PM EST up reply actions
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