NL West Top 55
I've finished my AL East Top 51 (link), AL Central Top 51 (link), AL West Top 51 (link), AL Top 150. lists. I plan to do the same for the NL, and then compile that into a NL 150 list, and possibly an overall 300. My rough guidelines for the system grades are as follows: I'm shooting for 4 5-star systems, 6 4-star, 10 3-star, 6 2-star, and 4 1-star systems (although these are not rigid parameters). For player grading I basically use John's system (but I may be a bit more generous). An A grade is a top 4-8 guy, A- Top 20-25, B+ Top 65, B Top 135, B- Top 240. All Ages are of Opening Day. Some changes from the AL 150 list- Tigers have been downgraded to a 2 star system.
The NL West is an intriguing division, prospect-wise. The division doesn't have elite talent of the AL East or AL West, but here are some intriguing guys. There is a tremendous amount of uncertainty because so many of the prospects are in the low minors. All those unknowns made going through this division challenging, but it was fun to learn about many prospects I didn't know much about previously.
1. Buster Posey, 23.0, C (SFG)- Really not much not to like. He's a patient hitter who should hit for average and could hit 20 homeruns annually. He needs to polish his receiving skills, but he has great defensive tools and he threw out 46 percent of would be base stealers last year. I'm not worried about his poor AFL showing, I think it was pretty clear he was worn out. The Bengie Molina signing likely means that Posey will at least start 2010 in AAA, but he should take over the starting job at some point during the year. Grade A
2. Christian Friedrich, 22.9, LHS (COL)- Polished left-hander with the ceiling of a number two. His plus fastball and plus curve give him a great one-two punch. Reports I've read are confident his change will progress enough to allow him to be an effective starter. I'm not overly concerned about the elbow inflammation in the middle of the season. Grade B+
3. Tyler Matzek, 19.6, LHS (COL)- More polished than most high school arms, Matzek could become a true font-of-the-rotation starter. He is an underrated athlete who was set to play both ways at Oregon. Needs to improve his change, he almost reminds me of a high school version of Friedrich (expect his plus breaking ball is a slider). He should begin his pro career in the Sally League in 2010, and it wouldn't surprise me to see Matzek be the first of the prep pitchers to reach the big leagues. Grade B+
4. Dee Gordon, 21.11, SS (LAD)- The son of big league reliever Tom Gordon, Dee is one of the best athletes in the minors. He was clocked at 6.3 seconds in the 60 yard dash, and you'll here Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins (with less power) comparisons thrown out. He is very new to the game, only picking up baseball his senior year of high school, so it is very possible he is just scratching the surface of his potential. I think he is an underrated prospect by most in this community. I don't think he'll ever surpass 12 homeruns in a season, but his defensive value, speed, and average should make him an all-star. Grade B+
5. Jarrod Parker, 21.4, RHS (ARZ)- Parker would have come in second on this list had it not been for the Tommy John surgery he underwent at the end of 2009. He has top-of-the-rotation stuff- a plus fastball, 70 slider, and a solid-average curve and change. The track record of pitchers recovering from Tommy John is so strong that Parker should still be considered a very good prospect. Grade B+
6. Madison Bumgarner, 20.8, LHS (SFG)- I don't think anyone can predict with much confidence how Bumgarner's career will go. He continued to post a sub-2 era in AA last year, pitching most of the season as a 19 year-old. And he did this despite the fact that his velocity dropped from the low 90s to the 88-90 range, in the second half. His slider and change are merely average offerings, and highly inconsistent, so the drop in velocity caused his K/9 to drop all the way to 5.8! Furthermore, he is a pretty extreme fly ball pitcher. Some inside the organization attribute the velo drop to the excessive amount of throwing Bumgarner was doing in between starts, and believe that it will return in 2010. That may be the case, but there are too many questions for me to project him as an ace. However, I think he will settle in as a 2/3 starter. Grade B+
7. Jaff Decker*, 20.1, LF (SD)- Any time a teenager puts up a 442 OBP in the Mid West League, you know you have a special bat on your hands. Decker's 2009 season was so special that he was the first teenager to lead the Mid West League in OPS since Prince Fielder did it in 2003. His detractors point to his lack of athleticism and bad body, and while these are concerns, I think they are overblown. He has stolen 19 bases as a pro, so it's not like he is some kind of base clogger. I think he could be a 20-25 homerun, middle of the order hitter, who consistently posts OBPs of 390. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Padres start Decker in AA. Grade B+
8. Chris Withrow, 21.0, RHS (LAD)- Despite throwing less than twenty innings in his first two professional seasons (signed late and then cut his finger in a snorkeling accident), scouts love Withrow's clean arm action and he is not considered a long-term injury risk. Because of all the time Withrow missed, he is behind the elite pitching prospects of the 2007 draft, developmentally. His command and control and poor, and his change up is a work in progress. Despite those concerns, Withrow has number one starter potential. He has one of the best fastballs in the minors, and his curve is a potential plus offering. He should get a full year at AA in 2010. Grade B+
9. Jhouyls Chacin, 22.3, RHS (COL)- The third Rockies' starter in the top 10, Chacin is the closest to the majors of the three but also has the lowest ceiling. He is a strike-thrower who pounds the zone with a low 90s sinking fastball, allowing to rack up a GO/AO ratio of 1.88 in AA. His change is a true plus pitch, while his curve is fringy. Chacin profiles as a solid third starter. He is probably only a couple months of AAA away from being ready. Grade B+
10. Donavan Tate, 19.6, CF (SD)- Maybe the best athlete in the 2009 draft, Tate is a potential 5-tool star. He looked set to play football at North Carolina, but the Padres were able to sign him for a club record $6.25 million dollar bonus. Tate is raw, so the Padres will need to develop him. The Mike Cameron comparison is almost a cliche at this point, but I think it is actually a fitting one in this case. Grade B+
11. Simon Castro, 22.0, RHS (SD)- Older than most Latin prospects pitching in the Mid West League, Castro put up an extremely impressive stat line in 2009. He has always had impressive stuff- including a plus slider and a fastball that reaches 95-96- but he improved his delivery in 2009, allowing him to throw more strikes. At 6'5" 211 there is still room for some growth. I might not be as bullish on Castro as many. His GO/AO ratio of 0.81 has me worried that he will be hurt by the homerun as he climbs the organizational ladder. He is probably advanced enough to move to AA in 2010. I think he is a 3rd starter long-term. Grade B+
12. Zack Wheeler, 19.10, RHS (SFG)- The 6th overall pick in 2009, Wheeler is already 6'3" and may still be growing. He has an impressive combination of stuff and projection. He needs to improve the consistency of his breaking ball and work on his change. The Giants were aggressive with Bumgarner and Alderson, sending them both to the Sally League in their first full seasons. There is no reason not to expect Wheeler to be sent there too. Grade B
13. Ethan Martin, 20.10, RHS (LAD)- Some teams liked Martin as a third baseman coming out of the draft, but the Dodgers fell in love with his power stuff. He has a mid 90s fastball, and a curve that many project as a future plus pitch. Martin struggles with his control, walking 5.49 per 9 last year. And his lack of an average change has some projecting him as a future bullpen arm. I think he is athletic enough to make the necessary adjustments to profile as a starter. Grade B
14. Wynn Pelzer, 23.9, RHS (SD)- Under-the-radar prospect who strikes me as a solid middle-of-the-rotation option. He gets a lot of ground balls with his heavy fastball, and has a plus slider. He needs to improve his change to avoid a move to the pen. Grade B
15. Aaron Miller, 22.7, LHS (LAD)- Miller was reluctant to pitch until his sophomore year of college, preferring to play right. However, it was quickly apparent that his future lay on the mound. He has two plus pitches in his fastball and slider. Like Martin, Miller's change is unrefined- leading many to project him as a reliever down the line. After seeing him in the AFL, Jason Grey projected him as a back-end starter- citing his two pitch mix and flat fastball. I think he's a bit better than that, probably a 3/4. Grade B
16. Hector Gomez, 22.1, SS (COL)- He has all the tools to become a star, but he needs to stay healthy. It wouldn't surprise me if Gomez wins some gold gloves in the future. He has excellent range, soft hands, and an absolute cannon. At the plate his plate discipline must improve, but he shows enough bat speed that 15 homeruns a year is not out of the question. Grade B
17. James Darnell, 23.3, 3B (SD)- Tough to put up better numbers than Darnell did in 2009, although it is important to note that he was old for the Mid West League and then played in the hitter-friendly California League. Scouts like his swing and bat speed, so there is no reason to think the bat won't play at higher levels. The question is whether Darnell will be able to stick at 3rd. He made 30 errors there in 117 games, despite having the tools to be passable. Darnell profiles as an offensive regular at third. Grade B
18. Thomas Neal, 22.8, LF (SFG)- Finally healthy in 2009, Neal put up big numbers. Scouts love the bat speed and plate coverage, projecting him to hit for both average and power. He is a below average runner, although his arm is plus in left, so the bat will have to carry him. There is no reason to think he can't be a regular in left. Grade B
19. Wilin Rosario, 21.1, C (COL)- Rosario may not have been ready for the California League, but he is still a very good prospect. He has solid defensive tools, and the bat speed and swing to be an all star. He needs to improve his pitch recognition skills and learn to employe a more patient approach, but he is young enough to do so. I look for him to have a big year in 2010. Grade B
20. Scott Elbert, 24.8, LHR (LAD)- He shows electric stuff when healthy, but staying healthy has been the problem. He may have the stuff to start, but I'm not convinced he could handle the work load. He is ready for the big leagues, and should eventually become a valuable late inning option. Grade B-
21. Bobby Borchering#, 19.5, 3B/1B (ARZ)- Borchering draws Chipper Jones comparisons as a switch-hitting third baseman. Scouts love his bat speed and he projects as a possible middle-of-the-order slugger. Most observers think Borchering will eventually have to move over to first, as his actions are pretty poor at third. Grade B-
22. Garret Gould, 18.9, RHS (LAD)- The starting quarterback and power forward in high school, Gould is a very good athlete. Many teams were scarred off by his strong commitment to Wichita Sate, but the Dodgers were able to sign him for $900,000. He has front-of-the-rotation potential, but he is a long way away. Grade B-
23. Everett Williams*, 19.6, CF (SD)- One of my favorites in the 2009 draft. I solid defender in center with power potential. His approach and pitch recognition skills need refinement, but he has the raw tools to be a very productive player. It wouldn't surprise me to see Williams beat Tate to the majors. Grade B-
24. Rex Brothers*, 22.4, LHR (COL)- The Rockies have to be thrilled that Brothers lasted until 34th pick. Indications are that they will use him out of the pen, and that seems to be the prudent decision. As a reliever Brothers' 94-96 mph heat and nasty slider could make him a Billy Wagner like closer. Grade B-
25. Brandon Allen*, 24.2, 1B (ARZ)- It's important not to get sucked in by the numbers Allen put up in 167 plate appearances in the PCL. While I think Allen is a big leaguer, he strikes me as a second division regular. And I think that Arizona's decision to sign Adam LaRoche speaks volumes about how far he is from being ready for the big leagues. Grade B-
26. Roger Kieschnick*, 23.2, RF (SFG)- Has the tools to become a major league right fielder, but there are some holes he needs to fill. He has big raw power, but his swing is long so there is some concern he will be exploited by better pitching. His approach needs improvement. He's got a chance, but if I were a betting man I would bet against him becoming a regular. Grade B-
27. Josh Lindblom, 22.10, RHR (LAD)- Lindblom started and relieved in 2009, but his future seems to be as a reliever. Scouts love his heavy low 90s fastball, but he doesn't get many groundballs. However, he throws strikes and, with his plus curve, generates strikeouts. He should break camp with the big club in 2010. He profiles as a 7th/8th inning guy. Grade B-
28. Rafeal Rodriguez, 17.9, RF (SFG)- I think too many people are sleeping on Rodriguez. He held his own making his American debut in 2009, showing good plate discipline and a solid hit tool. He is a physical freak with the ceiling to match anyone on this list. He will likely advance to the Northwest League as an 18 year-old. Could become a true impact player, but he is far away. Grade B-
29. Dan Runzler, 25.0, LHR (SFG)- He clicked with his Sally League pitching coach, Steve Kline, and has taken off since. He has power stuff in a mid-90s heater and a plus breaking ball. Only thing holding him back from the back-end of a big league bullpen is his struggles with command. Grade B-
30. Logan Forsythe, 23.3, 3B/C? (SD)- Only hit 11 homeruns in 2009, but he has such a good approach at the plate that he may be able to profile as a regular at third as an OBP and defense guy. With Darnell on his heels, there is some talk of trying him behind the plate. His game seems well suited to Petco park. Grade B-
31. Aaron Poreda, 23.6, LHR (SD)- The main return in the Jake Peavy deal, Poreda was a disaster in San Diego. His mechanics got out of whack, and he walked an astounding 10.2 batters per nine in 32.2 AAA innings for the Padres. Despite his struggles, the talent is there. He has a big fastball and his slider will flash plus. I think the ship has sailed as him as a starter, but I see no reason not to think he will be a valuable reliever. Grade B-
32. Edinson Rincon, 19.8, LF (SD)- The bat looks great- power potential, a patient approach, and good results as a teenager in the North West League. However, he has as much of a chance as playing third as Jesus Montero does of catching. It's tough not to like the bat, but defensive questions preclude a higher grade. Grade B-
33. Adys Portillo, 18.3, RHS (SD)- Portillo's $2 million dollar bonus set a record for a Venezuelan pitcher. That bonus set expectations very high for Portillo's debut, and the results simply were not there. Despite his struggles, I still remain optimistic about his future. He will be only 18 the entire 2010 season, and the stuff that had everyone so excited heading into 2009 is still there. Grade B-
34. Andrew Lambo*, 21.8, 1B/LF (LA)- Lambo's value is all in his bat, so he is going to have to hit to make it to the big leagues. While his AA numbers were not impressive, there are signs for optimism. He is still very young, and will play almost the entire 2010 season at 21. Furthermore, he hit 39 doubles. If he can begin to turn a few of those into homeruns he may be able to stick in the big leagues. He reminds me a bit of current Dodgers first baseman James Loney. Grade B-
35. Kenley Jansen, 22.6, RHR (LA)- A former catcher, Jansen converted to the mound in 2009 and the early returns have the Dodgers very excited. He hit 97 in the AFL, and scouts love how easily the ball comes out of his hands (especially considering how new he is to the mound). His slider shows great life and is a potential out-pitch at the big league level. Grade B-
36. Ivan DeJesus Jr., 22.11, SS/2B (LA)- Coming off a huge 2008 season, DeJesus looked poised to make his big league debut at some point during the 2009 season. However, those chances went out the window in spring training when he broke his leg in a play at the plate. DeJesus doesn't wow scouts with his tools, but he knows how to play the game and makes the most out of his natural ability. He is a patient hitter, who, despite his lack of power, should provide enough with the bat to be a major league contributor. Prior to the leg injury there were concerns about his range at short, so there is a fair chance he will have to move to second. Grade B-
37. Chris Owings, 18.8, SS (ARZ)- Similar to DeJesus, in that neither player is especially toolsy but both get the most out of what they have. Owings isn't much of a power threat, so he will need to adopt a more patient approach to provide offensive value. His hit tool is solid, and he performed very well in his debut. He projects as an average defender at short, although his arm is fringy. He is a year younger than most 2009 high school draftees. Grade B-
38. AJ Pollock, 22.4, CF (ARZ)- A lot of people like him more than this, but I'm a bit concerned by the lack of tools. He isn't a true plus runner, but he is a solid defender in center. Offensively he projects as a 10-15 homerun guy, who hits for a solid average. He will need to employe a more patient approach for his bat to play in center as a regular. Grade B-
39. Trayvon Robinson#, 22.7, CF (LA)- Robinson hadn't shown much with the bat coming into 2009, but he had a huge year repeating the California League. Then he impressed Arizona Fall League observers with his athleticism and bat speed. On pure potential Robinson would rate several spots higher. However, I'm not much of a believer. He needs to improve his pitch recognition skills, and his offensive breakout came while repeating a hitter-friendly league. Grade B-
40. Allen Webster, 20.2, RHS (LA)- Early indications are that the Dodgers got a steal when they signed Webster for $20,000 as an 18th round pick in 2008. He needs to add bulk to his 6-foot-2 165 pound frame, but already has hit 94 and works in the low 90s. His breaking ball is a potential plus offering, and his change shows signs of being average. In Baseball America's Dodgers chat, John Perrott said he couldn't see a reason why Webster couldn't develop into a number 2 starter. I think that is a bit bullish, but Webster is a very intriguing prospect. Grade B-
41. Keyvius Sampson, 19.3, RHS (SD)- Sampson had one of the best arms available in the 2009 draft, but many teams were scarred away by reported bonus demands and some off the field issues (link). The Padres were enticed by his mid 90s heat, sharp breaking ball, and athleticism to take a shot on him in the 4th round and were able to sign him for $600,000. His ceiling is immense, but he is far away. Grade B-
42. Rymer Liriano, 18.10, RF (SD)- Liriano has the potential to become a true impact player. He has a cannon for an arm. While he can play center in a pinch, he is better suited for right. At the plate, he has tremendous raw power and bat speed. His potential prompted his rookie league manager to proclaim that "[Liriano] has the biggest upside that I've seen in a Latin kid in my years of managing". Despite the potential, there are concerns about Liriano's discipline and ability to hit breaking balls. Grade C+
43. Tommy Joseph, 18.9, C/1B (SFG)- One of the best prep bats available in 2009, Joseph evokes Paul Konerko comparisons for his sturdy frame and power potential. He has great bat speed and a balanced swing. Joseph is a below average athlete, and very few believe that he will be able to stay behind the plate, so the pressure is all on his bat. Grade C+
44. Mike Belfiore, 21.6, LHS (ARZ)- Belfiore received national attention when (as Boston College's closer) he threw 9 2/3 innings in relief in BC's marathon game against Texas. The Diamond backs are attempting to use him as a starter, and I think he has the stuff to do it. He gets ground balls with his low 90s fastball, and he also has a plus slider. He will need to improve his change as a starer, but I think there is enough for him to become a 4th starter. Grade C+
45. Matt Davidson, 19.0, 3B/1B (ARZ)- A lot of people seemed to have inexplicably soured on Davidson (10th on BA's list, 11th on John's, and 8th on KG's). Sure, he is likely a first baseman long term. But he still has the upside of a middle-of-the-order run producer, and he held his own in the Northwest League straight out of high school. Grade C+
46. Drew Cumberland*, 21.3, SS/2B (SD)- A star running back and DB in high school, Cumberland is an exceptional athlete. He receives 70 speed grades, and rave reviews for his patient approach. While he isn't a homerun threat, he stings the balls in the gaps and has drawn Brian Roberts comparisons. He has the actions and range to play short, but his arm is light so a move to second base may be in his future. Cumberland has struggled to stay healthy, but if he can in 2010 I look for him to have a big year. Grade C+
47. Michael McKenry, 25.1, C (COL)- At 25, McKenry is approaching the stage where he is what he is. However, that is not without value. McKenry is a very solid defensive catcher, who threw out 46 percent of would be base stealers in 2008. At the plate he is a patient hitter with some pop. Some scouts don't like his body and grade him as a back-up, but there is value in that. He should make his major league debut at some point in 2010. Grade C+
48. Nolan Arenado, 19.0, 3B (COL)- The Rockies love Arenado's makeup and work ethic. That is especially important because he needs to improve his defense to remain at third. He doesn't have elite power potential, but he has a quality hit tool- striking out in less than 9 percent of his Pioneer League at-bats and hitting 300. I like Arenado, but he doesn't have the ceiling of the other high school second rounders in 2009. Grade C+
49. Brett Wallach, 21.4, RHS (LA)- The son of a former big leaguer, it looks that Brett will be following in his fathers footsteps. He is just filling out his 6-foot-3 frame, and the Dodgers believe he will add velocity to his 88-89 mph fastball. His off-speed stuff is advanced, and his change should be a plus pitch in the future. I like Wallach as a sleeper, and think there is a good chance he becomes a solid mid-rotation starter. Grade C+
50. Cory Luebke, 25.1, LHS (SD)- Baseball America has him 6th on their Padres list, but I just don't see it. His repertoire is average, he's not much of a ground ball guy, and having success in the Cal and Texas leagues as a 24 year-old doesn't inspire a lot of confidence in me. His stuff should play in the big leagues, but I don't see him being much more than a back-end starter. Grade C+
51. Ehidre Adrianza#, 20.7, SS (SFG)- A potential gold glove winner, Adrianza has the range, arm, and actions that scouts covet in short stops. The bat is a work in progress at this point, and it is unlikely he will ever offer much offensively, but he did show a willingness to walk in 2009. Grade C+
52. Jonathan Galvez, 19.3, 2B (SD)- Signed for $750,000 in 2007, Galvez put together a very strong US debut in 2009. He has a quick bat giving him impressive power potential for a middle infielder, and he employes an advanced approach at the plate. However, scouts worry about his defense. His arm will likely relegate him to second, and some scouts questioned his effort in the field. If he can clean up his defense he could shoot up this list in 2010. Grade C+
53. Esmil Rogers, 24.8, RHP (COL)- Signed as a shortstop, Rogers has made a seamless transition to the mound. Surprisingly, scouts love his fluid arm motion and the easy 93-95 velocity that he generates. His curve is sharp, but his change is unrefined. It's tough to know what to make of Rogers' 2009. He was great in AA, but his control and command deserted him when he got to AAA. If he can improve his command and change he could be a valuable starer, but I'm not optimistic. I think he profiles better as a reliever. Grade C+
54. Tim Wheeler, 22.2, RF (COL)- I'm not a big believer in Wheeler. His tools are pretty average across the board, but he is going to need to hit to hold down right field in pro ball. His big league debut was less than inspiring, but I look for him to have a better season in 2010. Grade C+
55. Nate Eovaldi, 20.2, RHS (LA)- Eovaldi had Tommy John surgery at the end of his junior year of high school, but recovered in time to pitch his senior season. He slipped to the 11th round due to signability questions, but the Dodgers were able to sign him for $250,000. He is a classic Texas power pitcher, who runs his fastball up to 93-96. He has made solid strides with his curve in pro ball, but his change is still crude. The Dodgers have been very careful with Eovaldi, and there are still some durability questions. However, the arm is worth taking a gamble on. Grade C+
Honorable Mentions (in no particular order):
Francisco Peguero, 21.10, CF (SFG)- Intriguing tools, but no plate discipline. Not sure how that approach will play at higher levels. Numbers were inflated by a 404 BABIP in 2009.
Charlie Blackmon*, 23.9, CF (COL)- Old for his league, but that is because he was a pitcher up until 2007. He has very impressive tools, with power being the only non-plus. The ceiling of an every day center fielder.
Casey Weathers, 24.10, RHR (COL)- Should be healthy in 2010 after undergoing Tommy John in 2009. When he is on he has some of the nastiest stuff in the game. Will need to improve his command and prove his health. Could be a closer.
Eric Young Jr., 24.10, 2B/CF (COL)- Spitting image of his father. I'm not convinced his bat/speed will be able to make up for his defensive short comings, but he should make a valuable utility guy.
Marc Krauss*, 22.6, LF (ARZ)- Should hit for average and put up good OBP numbers, but scouts question whether he will hit for power with wood. May eventually have to move to first. Reminds me of Sean Casey.
Lance Zawadzki#, 24.10, SS (SD)- Starting to get some prospect hype after a very strong 2009. I'm not sure he is a regular, but should be a valuable utility player.
System Rankings:
1. San Diego Padres- There is the perception that the Padres always go for low-ceiling college guys; however, a look through the system reveals a lot of high upside talents. They have drafted well in recent years, and are one of the most underrated teams in terms of procuring Latin American talent. The majority of the systems talent is in the low minors, so there is more risk here than there is with most systems, but the amount of depth gives them some room for error. The Padres had 15 players in the top 55 (3 B+, 2 B, 6 B-, and 4 C+). The five Padres who just missed being ranked (in order) were: Dexter Carter, Craig Italiano, Jerry Sullivan, Blake Tekotte, and Cedric Hunter. I like this system more than most, and I think it is above average. 4 Star System
2. Colorado Rockies- The Rockies certainly have an intriguing system. Friedrick, Matzek, and Chacin give them three very good pitching prospects, and Gomez and Rosario are premium position guys with big ceilings. I'm not as big on Rogers, Wheeler, and Young Jr. However, there is a decent depth to go with a good top end group. The Rockies had 10 players in the top 55 (3 B+, 2 B, 1 B-, and 4 C+). The five players who just missed being ranked (in order) were: Juan Nicasio, Chris Nelson, Parker Frazier, Chris Balcom-Miller, and Sam Deduno. I like the Rockies' top 5 better than the Padres', but they simply do not have the depth. I thought about going 4 stars, but I think they fit in better with the 3 star group. 3 Star System
3. Los Angeles Dodgers- The Dodgers have an underrated system. While they lack an elite prospect, Gordon and Withrow give them two top 65 guys. There is a lot of depth in this system, and most of it is comprised of high upside guys. Between Withrow, Martin, Gould, Webster, Wallach, and Eovaldi they should have a good stream of major league starters matriculating up the system. Furthermore, Elbert, Lindblom, and Jansen give them some great late-inning options. The Dodgers had 14 players in the top 55: (2 B+, 2B, 8 B-, and 2 C+). The five players who just missed being ranked (in order) were: Jonathan Garcia, Pedro Baez, Xavier Paul, John Ely, and Lucas May. While the Dodgers have go about 16 deep in terms of depth, once you get out of the top 16, things begin to go down quickly. There is a lot of risk in this system. But I think that five years down the road we will see that most underrated this system (KLaw had them 19 and BA has them 24). 3 Star System
4. San Francisco Giants- Posey and Bumgarner give this system the best 1-2 punch in the division, but there isn't much depth in the 10-20 range. Wheeler, Rodriguez, and Joseph are all potential impact players, but all three are a long way away. I think this system is often overrated (BA has them 4th!?). The Giants had 9 players in the top 55 (1 A, 1 B+, 2 B, 3 B-, and 2 C+). The five players who just missed being ranked (in order) were: Nick Noonan, Jason Stoffel, Brandon Crawford, Clayton Tanner, and Aaron King. There is definitely some talent in this system, but it is in the bottom half of baseball. Posey keeps this system from 2 star status, but just barely. 3 Star System
5. Arizona Diamondbacks- One of the tougher systems to grade, because so many of the players are 2009 draftees. An absurd seven of my top 10 Diamond backs were drafted in 2009. That means that this system could look much better in 2010, but it also means most of the system's talent is far away and there is a lot of risk. I didn't downgrade Parker as much as many others probably would, because I don't view Tommy John as a major impediment to his long-term value. The Diamondbacks had 7 players in the Top 55 (1B+, 4 B-, and 2 C+). The five players who just missed being ranked (in order) were: Ryan Wheeler, Wade Miley, Cole Gillespie, David Nick, and Collin Cowgill. I like Nick a lot as a sleeper, but defensive questions keep him from being ranked higher. Outsider of Parker there isn't anyone particularly close to the top 100, and the depth outside of the top 12 is poor. This system is clearly one of the worst in the game. 1 Star System.
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Matzek three spots ahead of Bumgarner? Seriously?
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
by shikantaza on Feb 2, 2010 2:19 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
No it's a big Joke
I have some serious questions about Bumgarner- velocity drop, secondary stuff, lack of strikeouts, and very few ground balls. The ERA is nice, but the peripherals are not there to support it. He is still a very good prospect, but I don’t think ranking Matzek above him is at all indefensible.
by BrosbeforeShaincoes on Feb 2, 2010 2:47 AM EST up reply actions
I guess it's better to be more conservative re: Bumgarner
However, if he’s back to sitting in the low 90s next season, I don’t see how you could put him below Friedrich or Matzek. Come to think of it, why would you put Matzek below Fredrich at all?
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
I would personally still have him below Friedrich and Matzek (assuming they stay stable)
Where’s the changeup?
Friedrich and Matzek have better stuff IMO. IF Bumgarner gets his velocity back he’s more comparable to Casey Crosby. Power lefty package with some issue and weak third pitch.
According to the OP
Friedrich and Matzek need much work on their changeups too.
Can you say “inconsistency in logic” ?
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
I think Friedrich and Matzek's secondary stuff is superior to Bumgarner's.
Add that to the fact Matzek and Friedrich are sitting abover 90mph and its an easy choice for me.
YMMV.
Considering the trouble involved with projecting high school arms, I just think it’s a rather strained choice. It’s quite easy to point out the flaws of a guy we have about 300 innings of stats from, as compared to a guy who hasn’t thrown an inning in the pros.
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
well, for Matzek they are because we don’t have any stats. this just seems like the extreme opposite all of the people who religiously cling to the “just give me a results” position. at some point the results make it seem rather silly to characterize Bumgarner in this way: “IF Bumgarner gets his velocity back he’s more comparable to Casey Crosby. Power lefty package with some issue and weak third pitch.”
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
Given that Matzek is a high school kid who hasn’t pitched as a pro yet, I’d say it is. Also, how is he behind Jarrod Parker? You use the velocity drop as a reason to move him down past a guy that just had TJ surgery?
The very bad man who traded my first son non-tendered my replacement son. F*ck you Brian Sabean. Leave my children alone.
No pro data
If you significantly downgrade prospects with great scouting reports for simply not having played, you’re going to miss out on a lot of good players.
As for Parker, I viewed him as one of the best pitching prospects in the game pre-Tommy John, and I don’t view the injury as a major impediment to his long-term success. Obviously, the two are very close (both got B+ grades and rated next to each other), but I’d rather take the risk of TJ over the multitude of questions surrounding Bumgarner.
by BrosbeforeShaincoes on Feb 2, 2010 8:16 PM EST up reply actions
No Worries
I like to here people disagree with my rankings, because it gives me an opportunity to explain my rationale. If I can’t defend my rankings, that is a good indication that I should change something.
Haha, your Giants are getting enough love from BA.
by BrosbeforeShaincoes on Feb 3, 2010 7:30 PM EST up reply actions
i think the giants are clearly #2
i’m not a huge fan of bumgarner either.
by auclairkeithbc on Feb 3, 2010 7:53 PM EST up reply actions
Ya?
Care to elaborate? By my rankings they are a pretty clearly 4th. Who do you think I am over/underrating?
by BrosbeforeShaincoes on Feb 3, 2010 7:59 PM EST up reply actions
i don't think your rankings are too far off
but i’d take the giants over the rockies still. i guess a few guys get bumped up, a few guys get bumped down. i’d say overall the giants are a top 15 system.
by auclairkeithbc on Feb 3, 2010 8:18 PM EST up reply actions
baseball america
has the giants 4th overall.
by auclairkeithbc on Feb 4, 2010 9:43 PM EST up reply actions
not just in the NL west
4th in all of MLB
by auclairkeithbc on Feb 4, 2010 9:44 PM EST up reply actions
thats ridiculous
I dont care if you are a Giant, Dodger, Yankee, Red Sox, Royals fan or any other organization… to have the Giants 4th is crazy. I think the tag team swayed BA, but after that it becomes dry pretty fast
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Feb 4, 2010 9:45 PM EST up reply actions
No depth
I follow the A’s and Giants closely and the Giants just don’t have much depth.
If I did a combined list of prospects on those two teams, Posey would be the clear #1, but Bumgarner would be the only other SF player in the Top 10, and Thomas Neal (who I like) would barely crack the Top 20.
Z. Wheeler
I take that back. Zach Wheeler would be in the Top 10 of a combined A’s/Giants prospect list.
Sickels gave Neal a B
- player on the A’s got a B-
It’s a huge stretch to say that he would barely crack the top 20 on a combined list.
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
I wasn’t saying prospects with no pro data aren’t good; I’m just saying it’s not fair to put them (particularly HS prospects) over prospects who have had success in the minors solely based on scouting reports. Even with Bumgarner’s strikeout rate declining, I don’t think it’s fair to put a guy who hasn’t had the chance to either succeed or fail ahead of him.
And I think the main question with Bumgarner is whether or not his velocity will return. Barring injury, it should. And if it does return, his strikeout rates should improve. Either way, I don’t think it makes that much sense given that Parker will miss an entire year of development and that even when he comes back, there’s a significant risk he won’t be the same pitcher. TJ surgery might have a high success rate, but that doesn’t mean you can fairly assume he’ll come back from it completely undamaged. He also didn’t exactly dominate AA. He didn’t do that much better than Bumgarner. He showed better strikeout numbers, but he also walked a lot more. And he was also a year older.
The very bad man who traded my first son non-tendered my replacement son. F*ck you Brian Sabean. Leave my children alone.
that was a difficult vote
i like all 3 of those systems a great deal. really like the upside talent that COL and LA are hoarding, but SD wins for great depth
Kent Matthes, OF, Colorado
Any thoughts on Matthes?
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.
Fringy
A college senior should rip up the Northwest League, so his numbers didn’t impress me all that much. A lot of strikeouts (32.2 percent), and not enough walks (7.6 percent). He has some tools, namely power. But we’re talking about a corner outfielder, who is only an average defender, so he better.
by BrosbeforeShaincoes on Feb 2, 2010 1:18 PM EST up reply actions
Chris Nelson, 2B, Colorado
Any thoughts on Nelson?
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.
I still like him some
The tools are still there, and his numbers last year were solid (albeit in a very small sample size). Obviously, the main problem is that he hasn’t been able to stay healthy. He’ll be 24 all year, so there is still a chance, but I think the best Colorado can hope for is a solid regular. He came in 15th on my Rockies list, in between Juan Nicasio and Parker Frazier.
by BrosbeforeShaincoes on Feb 2, 2010 1:14 PM EST up reply actions
All three of those systems are real close
I find it borderline absurd that BA has the Giants as there 4th best system in the game!
by BrosbeforeShaincoes on Feb 2, 2010 1:20 PM EST up reply actions
Well, Posey is a pretty strong headliner
Bumgarner isnt bad at all (though I like him far less than most). Wheeler and Neal are fairly promising (though Neal is overrated IMO). Depth is so-so.
So… have to agree. No way I have them anywhere close to 4th best system.
I think BA loves tools and relievers or something
I can’t really see them as 4th best.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
I really dont think any system is deeper in pitching than the Dodgers
in the NL West. And yet, it is thought they are the 3rd best, according to your rankings and the fans? Wow. I know our hitting is weak after Gordon, Lambo and Robinson, but i think that our pitching out weighs it. Most scouts agree the Dodgers have at least 5 guys who at LEAST #2 potential. Thats pretty crazy.
With the Giants, you have Bumgarner(who has question marks now) and Posey(who will not hit for power in the majors, he will be an OBP type guy)… and thats it. Its nice to have two top prospects(even if they both have questions), but they dont make the whole system
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Feb 3, 2010 9:45 PM EST reply actions
well
he rated the dodgers ahead of the giants.
by auclairkeithbc on Feb 3, 2010 9:57 PM EST up reply actions
Ya
Not sure why you are using the Giants as your example when I have the Dodgers rated ahead of them…… I like the Dodgers system. I said they are underrated by most services, but there is a huge amount of risk in their system. They are close to the Rockies, but Friedrich, Matzek, and Chacin are too good for me to pass up.
by BrosbeforeShaincoes on Feb 3, 2010 10:13 PM EST up reply actions
ok, i accidentally hit cancel instead of post for my responce, so i'll try to sum it up
The Giants comment was to the posters who were complaining about their system rating. I should have just responded to them specifically, but i was too lazy…
With the system ratings, I think it could be said all of the systems have question marks for their top guys. It was said above the the Rockies pitchers dont have great secondary stuff yet. The Padres and Dbacks could each have an argument made that their system has more question marks than the Dodgers because many of their top prospects are from the 09 draft. And as I said, the Giants have Bumgarner and Posey… and thats it.
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Feb 3, 2010 10:34 PM EST up reply actions
And as I said, the Giants have Bumgarner and Posey… and thats it.
I don’t know why you say that. You have Zach Wheeler ranking above the Dodger’s third best prospect, and Thomas Neal only a few spots being the Dodger’s fourth best. Where the Giants seem to be lacking for you is after that, in that they only have 3 B- players, as opposed to 8 for the Dodgers. On the other hand, they’re the only org. with an A prospect, and there aren’t even any A- prospects.
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
Dodgers
management sees Lindblom as a starter. They had him relieving last year due to perceived possible need, as he was the closest to ready for big league action,but the plan is to send him to the minors as a starter this season. I would be very surprised to see him make the club out of spring training. Also, Elbert’s injury concern is overblown. He has had one injury, which was relatively minor, though the rehab took a long time. Dodger’s management has said they see him as a starter, as well.
agree 100% on both points
Especially the injury aspect. He had a shoulder cleanup 4 years ago! 4 YEARS AGO. Yet, people still talk about his injury concern. If he had shoulder reconstruction, i could see how there would be major question marks, but he had a cleanup of scar tissue and has regained his velocity and movement. It is a thing in the past, IMO
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Feb 4, 2010 4:50 PM EST up reply actions
Lindblom/Elbert
Concerning Lindblom, this is coming from BA:
The Dodger’s have decided to develop him as a reliever
Concerning Elbert: The fact that it has taken him so long to recover from a “relatively minor injury”, is a red flag to me. He has never thrown more than 116 innings since the surgery. There is effort in his delivery, and his command issues would likely lead to high pitch counts. All in all I think he profiles much better as a reliever.
by BrosbeforeShaincoes on Feb 4, 2010 8:48 PM EST up reply actions
About Lindblom and Elbert
First Lindblom, both quotes are via MOKM:
39.0 IP/2.54 ERA/3.51 FIP/1.18 WHIP/36 K/12 BB
I agree with the general consensus that his future is in the bullpen, but if he has the potential to be a starter, I don’t see why the Dodgers would rule that out so soon. Fact of the matter is that even a middling starter (Jon Garland type) is worth more than most closers, so that is the root of my general reluctance to pigeonhole potential starters (James McDonald/Scott Elbert) as future relievers.
The sticking point is that Lindblom could probably have an impact as a reliever this year, as he has two pitches that are good enough to get major league hitters out, and he has the mental profile of a closer. His third pitch needs development time, and he’ll need it to be a starter, so it’s a case of patience versus whether the time lost is worth the potential return.
And, this is litterally a quote from Colletti:
“I would like to see Lindblom start,” Colletti said. “In his case, he really needs to pitch some innings. He still doesn’t have a lot of professional innings under his belt.”
Welp, that answers that. For now.
So, as you can tell, one is a season review from the writer of MOKM, who says Lindblom could be effective in the majors as a reliever now, but because of our pen, his value(and the value of starters in general) would be higher as a starter. The 2nd is self explanatory.
With Elbert, it didnt take him this long to recover. He was ready(and willing) to start in 08, but the Dodgers took it REALLY slow because he is still really young and has crazy upside as a starter. They took all of 08 with him relieving to get him back to the baseball feel of things. Last year, they let him start(with pitch counts, as you do with all top prospects) and he put an effective year together.
The fact with Elbert is he has consistently improved on his walks while keeping his Ks in double digits. AKA, he is maturing with age. He profiles very similarly to two current Dodgers, Billingsley and Kershaw(their pluses and flaws, not necessarily potential). If we didnt let Billz and Kershaw start, imagine what our rotation would be. The fact is walks are something a young pitcher work on over time. If a power arm like Elbert can start, he will start until his walks are SO bad that he is forced to the pen…
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Feb 4, 2010 9:12 PM EST up reply actions
In 2008 Elbert was strictly a closer. That’s not his fault he was used that way. He was also very good in that role. In 2009, he was a starter in the minors, and he was spectacular at times, and had over a 12 k/9 in AA. Elbert is the real deal as a good 2 or 3 starter (in this system he will be lucky to make it to 3 in a couple years), but should definitely be at least the 4 or 5 starter this or next season.
Neal
If Neal is a below average runner, then how did he steal 12 bases in the Arizona Fall League, good for second in the league behind Chase D’Arnaud’s 13?
Neal
Straight from BA:
Neal is a below average runner
I’m not sure what happened in the AFL, but I don’t think Neal all of a sudden became faster or a better base-stealer. He stole three bases in each of his last two minor league seasons, so I’m wondering if that AFL total is a typo.
by BrosbeforeShaincoes on Feb 4, 2010 8:50 PM EST up reply actions
No Ryan Wheeler?
"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond
No, he really stole those bases. He was sidelined with an injury a couple of years ago and I believe he gained some weight/got out of shape. I think he also got more focussed. Here’s some links with interviews of him if you would like to read for yourself:
http://azgiants.com/
http://www.sjgiants.com/ArDisplay.aspx?ID=2303&SecID=27

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