Breakout time for Delmon Young (?)
by DodgersBacktoBrooklyn2011 on Feb 16, 2010 1:05 PM EST
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I'm bullish on Delmon...
I think he will break out this year, especially if he could find his way into the 2 hole:
Span
Young
Mauer
Morneau
Cuddyer
Kubel/Thome...
I'm actually surprised that he is already considered a bust, 3 years under his belt now, and he never met the lofty expectations (yet), but he still is a career .290 hitter. This year, the confidence come and the power follows. I could also see him steal a few more bases, and have 10-15 this year.
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Orlando Hudson
will be manning the 2 hole for the Twins this year. I wouldn’t want to see Delmon there, anyway.
"mark kotsay for $1.5 million. or jim thome for $1.5 million.
gosh. i’m going to have to think about this one for a bit." larry
"We're gonna do this f*ucking thing over again cuz I just f*cked it up.....oh, we're live, I didn't know that" Bert Blyleven
7th
I see Young batting 7th or even 8th this year.
Still
Still think he can break-out!
by DodgersBacktoBrooklyn2011 on Feb 16, 2010 1:43 PM EST up reply actions
Note
Note I mentioned, “work his way into…”; OHudson is injury prone (mainly freak injuries, but ip nonetheless) and if Delmon is hitting well if/when an injury occurs he could earn that spot. His SO rate is low as well.
by DodgersBacktoBrooklyn2011 on Feb 16, 2010 1:47 PM EST up reply actions
20% career K rate
is about league average. It’s the .322 OBP that I just don’t like in the 2 spot Id say Hardy would get moved there, he hit there some for the Brewers
"mark kotsay for $1.5 million. or jim thome for $1.5 million.
gosh. i’m going to have to think about this one for a bit." larry
"We're gonna do this f*ucking thing over again cuz I just f*cked it up.....oh, we're live, I didn't know that" Bert Blyleven
My Bad
How could I forget Gardenhire’s love of Nick Punto. If Hudson goes down, Punto will be doing the hitting, if it can be called that, in the second spot
"mark kotsay for $1.5 million. or jim thome for $1.5 million.
gosh. i’m going to have to think about this one for a bit." larry
"We're gonna do this f*ucking thing over again cuz I just f*cked it up.....oh, we're live, I didn't know that" Bert Blyleven
yep
this is why Vitters did not crack my top 75…. i’m too weary from Delmon/Francoeur. You simply must be able to work the zone to be a good mlb hitter.
+1 on Vitters
Kevin Frandsen: The best SS on the Giants roster
Hoping for BowkerMania to hit AT&T Park in 2010
Career .290 hitter, sure
but until he stops swinging at anything and everything or starts making more contact, he won’t be anything more than an undisciplined free-swinger with weak power and poor defense. In other words, a bust.
ive been pegging young
for a breakout for the last 3 years lol…i still kinda feel it this year, but i wouldnt bet on it
Well
the bet gives you a much better risk/reward than ever before, in my opinion.
No one (or very few) expect it now.
by DodgersBacktoBrooklyn2011 on Feb 16, 2010 1:52 PM EST up reply actions
That's because you'd sort of expect some kind of progress by now
And, aside from a modest increase in IsoP last season, he hasn’t displayed any.
tough breakout
is he gonna get 500 AB’s? They signed Thome, and I’m assuming that they did this to be the DH, which means Kubel in LF and Cuddyer in right, at least against RHP. . . .
Kubel/Delmon/Thome
Should be steady rotation, I think total ABs should be in the order above.
by DodgersBacktoBrooklyn2011 on Feb 16, 2010 2:44 PM EST up reply actions
Kubel isn't going to get rotated
He’s the #5 hitter and Gardenhire even used him against LHPs in that slot by the end of the year. Thome is essentially a worse version of Kubel.
I see Thome spelling Kubel every once in a while, but I would fully expect Thome to steal a good amount of ABs from Delmon, especially late in games.
Then again, predicting what Ron Gardenhire will do is like one of those fundraisers where you try to guess where the cow will crap, only the cow is actually using some logic to make its decisions.
Not sure I was clear on this point
Kubel and Thome have fairly similar skill sets. Although Kubel will be spelled by Thome for regular rest occasionally, there really is no advantage to him taking ABs from Kubel.
Kubel could really be called a better version of Thome right now. So, late in the game there is no reason you would pinch hit the LH, low AVG, good OBP, good power Thome for the LH, med AVG, good OBP, good power Kubel. They aren’t exactly the same as hitters, but theyre similar enough that you would never replace Kubel with Thome in game, especially given what it would do to your defense. Thome was clearly not brought in to take ABs from Kubel – what would be the point…? Thome must be there to take ABs from Delmon, who doesn’t hit RHP very well at all (another thing mitigating against a breakout).
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=youngde03&year=2009&t=b
Kubel
Looks like he hit .320 at home & .280 away, so answering my own ?, he may be slightly affected by the move.
The new park is supposedly pitcher friendly.
by DodgersBacktoBrooklyn2011 on Feb 16, 2010 3:08 PM EST up reply actions
I doubt it
Kubel has lots of power and the dimensions of the new park are pretty favorable for him.
His hit chart: http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_hitting_chart.jsp?c_id=min&playerID=430585&statType=1
His hit tracker HR chart: http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2009_5040&type=hitter
The new park is 331 feet down the RF line, 371 in the RF gap and 402 to dead center. Might lose a couple, but the cold weather is 10 times bigger a concern for me.
Here are his HRs from hittracker – the vast majority of them were HRs in any park.
Nice Chart!
But I think the ball flew better indoors….
by DodgersBacktoBrooklyn2011 on Feb 16, 2010 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
Have to be careful with park dimensions
The RF gap as measured in the new park isn’t the same degree from the RF line as the RF gap as measured in the old park .
I heard it was hitter friendly
Didn’t they move the fences in?
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Feb 16, 2010 6:18 PM EST up reply actions
Opening this year
Did they move the fences in before they even started playing?
by DodgersBacktoBrooklyn2011 on Feb 16, 2010 7:41 PM EST up reply actions
Compared to the Metrodome
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Feb 16, 2010 8:22 PM EST up reply actions
Aha
Yes, I had a problem with reading comprehension there.
It’s less about the dimensions and more about the cold air and wind effects outside…
by DodgersBacktoBrooklyn2011 on Feb 17, 2010 1:16 PM EST up reply actions
Wind
Cold weather may reduce homeruns, but who knows how the wind will play. It certainly didn’t hurt in NY this year.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Feb 17, 2010 8:55 PM EST up reply actions
Yup
I don’t think Delmon is going to be seeing very much of Peavy Grienke Verlander types. He’ll get most of the ABs against lefties.
"mark kotsay for $1.5 million. or jim thome for $1.5 million.
gosh. i’m going to have to think about this one for a bit." larry
"We're gonna do this f*ucking thing over again cuz I just f*cked it up.....oh, we're live, I didn't know that" Bert Blyleven
by smoooooth on Feb 16, 2010 3:08 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Not
Not seeing Peavy Grienke or Verlander is a classic prescription for a break-out!
by DodgersBacktoBrooklyn2011 on Feb 16, 2010 3:11 PM EST up reply actions
No, it isn't
If a team gets really unlucky with the unbalanced schedule they’ll hit an intra-divisional ace maybe 5 times. That’s 20 ABs. Sparing Young a maximum of 50-60 ABs against very good pitchers isn’t any kind of recipe for a breakout, especially if he misses that time because he’s being used ~85-90% of the time against lefties. It’s tough to break out if you get less than 300 plate appearances in a season.
Kubel?
I like Kubel, but do you think his power may be sapped a bit out of the Metrodome?
by DodgersBacktoBrooklyn2011 on Feb 16, 2010 3:06 PM EST reply actions
Very little of Kubel's power was b/c of the Metrodome. In fact, if you look at his hit chart (I posted the line above - NOT the HR chart) you can see a large clustering of doubles down the RF line
Those went off the baggie. Those were all easy HRs in the new park.
Your all over this
"mark kotsay for $1.5 million. or jim thome for $1.5 million.
gosh. i’m going to have to think about this one for a bit." larry
"We're gonna do this f*ucking thing over again cuz I just f*cked it up.....oh, we're live, I didn't know that" Bert Blyleven
by smoooooth on Feb 16, 2010 3:54 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Kubel
Has more road homers than home. Metrodome supresses HR slightly while increasing doubles and triples
"mark kotsay for $1.5 million. or jim thome for $1.5 million.
gosh. i’m going to have to think about this one for a bit." larry
"We're gonna do this f*ucking thing over again cuz I just f*cked it up.....oh, we're live, I didn't know that" Bert Blyleven
by smoooooth on Feb 16, 2010 3:53 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
agree to extent
i think this is the year he sees a power increase, but the walks will remain low however.
.290/320/440 with 20 homers is my guess
well
2 reasons why im bullish on Young.
1. ) He was one of our better players last couple months last year. He really was playing good ball down the stretch.
2.) He went from 239 lbs, to 210 lbs. He’s in GREAT shape, if he re-dedicated himself to getting in shape, and being at his best, it may translate in games.
We’ll see what happens, won’t shock me either way.
If his defense can just get back to the point where the Rays were willing to play him in CF
then he’ll be a pretty valuable player, though one in the High AVG/Low OBP/HIGH SLG Good defense mode. Think OF version of Adrian Beltre – but not world class defense or that much power…
Haha
Pretty much. I dont know. Whenever I think of a player with a good hit tool, is a good fielder and who hits for power but has a weak approach I immediately think of Beltre. Most of those types of players I dont care for. Approach is a big deal to me, typically. Beltre was the guy who I always wanted on my team despite the flaws. He did enough everywhere else to be a good player despite a flawed approach. I think Delmon can be that kind of player if he hits for power like he did in the second half and gets his defense back to where it was a few years back.
He was beyond awful in CF with the Rays
The only reason he was there is because Crawford refused to play there. Literally the only option for them that year. He’s been one of the worst defensive players in all of baseball over the past two years. He’s been worth -.5 WAR over the course of his career and -1.6 WAR over his time in Minnesota. I see very little reason for optimism that he will either break out or be a productive player at the big league level. And I’m not really sure what he brings off the bench either given his lack of defensive ability.
Tools Whore
Ok, fine
But he was considered a better defender than he is now… Im not at all saying he has some kind of future in CF or anything. Im just saying his glove was more highly regarded back then…
In the minors the reports were that he had the tools to be an above-average corner OF.
That just never materialized. His rookie year in Tampa he showed on of the best arms I’ve ever seen, but little else. His routes were suspect and so was his conditioning. Neither appears to have changed.
Tools Whore
Genes mean something
He looks a hell of a lot more like his brother every season.
re: great shape
I won’t complain about the loss of weight and getting in better shape, but that was never really the problem with him, it’s the approach at the plate that’s a concern. I don’t care how strong or quick you are, if you’re swinging at pitches 6 inches off the plate, you’re not going to perform
I’m encouraged that Delmon hit .300 / .320 / .500 after the all-star break in a little over 200 AB’s last year. That’s a positive sign, in my opinion. Not as positive as an increase in his plate discipline, but that’s about the slugging percentage I expected to see from him
-1 and only member of the Jed Lowrie fan club!
No breakout
Still no plate discipline, still unimpressive power, getting uglier in the field and on the bases. I still think his upside is a Jose Guillen career. People scoffed at me last year for comparing him to Guillen and Franceour, and the year before they scoffed at me for worrying that he showed no secondary skills at all. I’m going to stay the course. He was a great prospect. He’s not a very good ballplayer and will never be special.
Not really
On the year he had what, a 140 ISO? He didn’t even have a great second half. Once the September callups arrived, he beat the hell out of the ball for three weeks, and still didn’t draw any walks.
Kind of guy who I wouldn't be surprised
If he went 25-25, or if he got under 200 at bats. Part of it is simply that he isn’t a hard worker, a la Marte
You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220
Who has the best career overall...?
Delmon Young
Lastings Milledge
Elijah Dukes
Cameron Maybin
At this point,
either Maybin or Young… I’d lean towards Maybin because he’s going to play regardless since the Fish don’t really have much else to put in the OF for a few year… I think Delmon could be a productive player, but it just doesn’t seem like he wants it…
"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree
Maybin or Milledge
I think off field/disciplinary issues, injuries, and reputation will hinder Dukes enough, problem with skills will hinder Young enough.
I still believe in Milledge settling in as a solid every day corner outfielder on both sides of the ball, and Maybin, for all his flaws, has the best tools of the bunch, and some skill to go with them.
Dukes
Probably does have the most upside if all reached their peak potential. The ball screams off his bat when he hits it squarely.
I agree though that Maybin is probably the best/safest bet.
by DodgersBacktoBrooklyn2011 on Feb 17, 2010 1:18 PM EST up reply actions
Young will swing at any pitch that doesn't hit him first.
That a stolen line from Bill James used many years ago for a different player but is fitting nonetheless.
Two big things have held Young back as a player: Terrible plate discipline and defense. Both regressed even more last year.
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