Morning Notes, February 16, 2010
by John Sickels on Feb 16, 2010 12:33 PM EST
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PrintMorning Notes for February 16th, 2010
Morning Notes, February 16, 2010
***Going on blogtalkradio podcast at noon with Jeff Erickson for the Rotowire Fantasy Sports Hour; see the post below for a link.
***The "Get Off My Lawn" post yesterday generated good commentary and got noticed on some other baseball sites, notably The Hardball Times (which posted two different refutations) and Baseball Think Factory. Some follow-up points for clarification.
**I wasn't saying that sabermetrics has "gone too far" or that the forward progress should end.. I was saying that, from my point of view anyway, we need better ways to integrate the new knowledge into the larger whole. I thought that was clear in the post, since I wrote that explicitly.
**The image of Tom Anderson from Beavis and Butt-head, and the title of the post itself, were intended as ironic clues to my own awareness that perhaps I'm just getting old, or at least feeling that way.
**Yes, I am suffering from some burnout. The book writing process takes a lot out of me, and I'm still in the recovery phase. I really could use some time off, but the exigencies of life, writing, research, and blogging prevent this.
**I'm still trying to put the Twins thing together that I mentioned last week but have run into a research roadblock. Hopefully it will resolve soon and I can get the piece up.
**Give me some more names for Prospect Retros and Not-A-Rookies that you are interested in. Please use the "search" function to make sure I haven't already covered a guy recently. I intend to review Denard Span soon.
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not-a-rookie - kyle blanks
kyle blanks.
despite his huge frame he seemed more like a high avg, modest power guy. but his power display in the majors last year was impressive and his contact rate a little scary. what can we expect going forward? thanks.
Jurrjens
I’m interested in Jair Jurrjens, though obviously, in light of the MRI, much is contingent on how likely he is to remain healthy. Still, I’d like to know how a B prospect became one of the best young pitchers in baseball, and how likely he is to stay at the level of excellence he’s established over his first 430 innings in the big leagues. He doesn’t strike a ton of people out, but his ball has movement, and his 3.21 major league ERA is almost identical to his 3.20 minor league ERA. How did a guy with decent but not spectacular minor league numbers become the exact same guy in the majors, where those numbers look a whole lot more spectacular?
By the way, I really enjoyed the piece yesterday. I think you speak for a lot of us, whether or not we realize it. There’s always more math out there than I’ll ever understand, and it can feel awfully hard to keep up. But as long as I keep reading good writing, and watching good baseball, I’ll have fun.
http://www.chop-n-change.com
Prospect Retro: Casey Kotchman
Pretty sure you haven’t done one outside of a few comments on your Top-50 Hitters in Review series. Be interesting to see a more complete write-up on him.
Not A Rookie - Alex Gordon
John, would love to hear a “where are we now” for Alex Gordon. After all the hype surrounding his arrival, and the large thud when he got here. I still hold out hope for him being a very good player but is the “stud” label a myth at this point?
I truly hope not for the Royals sake
by topjimmy on Feb 16, 2010 1:57 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Not a Rookie
How about Brandon Wood? It seems like he’s slipped between the cracks now that he may be getting a chance to show his stuff.
King of Aurora Ave.
by TheJackass on Feb 16, 2010 2:45 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
seconded
Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."
Bengie Molina: "I don't understand why they didn't want to commit to another year, with my numbers and my experience and things like that." Brain Sabean: "He's certainly welcomed back with open arms".
Mychael Urban: Wow. Probably Dye at this point. Good outfielder, could adapt to RF at AT&T, good RBI guy.
by natteringnabob on Feb 16, 2010 7:55 PM EST up reply actions
Not a rookie hall of fame edition
Albert Pujols
Joe Mauer…
those might be fun.
by diehardtwinsfan on Feb 16, 2010 4:31 PM EST reply actions
+1
Especially good choice because his performance in limited at-bats with the Rangers last season exceeded expectations and he assumes a critical rule this year leading off and playing centerfield. And I would think he presents a challenge to forecast because he rose through the minors so quickly so there are fewer at-bats on which to form an opinion.
Requested in the Past
But I’d love a prospect Retro on Mariano Rivera. How many 1 trick ponies have turned into HoF players…seems interesting from a prospect perspective.
Not a Rookie - Nate Schierholtz
Seems to be a turning point in his career with the Giants – either will be a key contributor this year going forward, or the Giants go in a new direction next year.
not a rookie - Felipe Paulino
Great stuff, awful ERA & homer rates, but nice k and bb rates. Does he break out, go to the bullpen, or continue to frustrate?
His xFIP (4.10) certainly points to a breakout
He throws very hard and gets ground balls. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he established himself this year.
not a rookie - Mike Aviles, Daric Barton, Brian Duensing
Aviles – You did a player profile after his great 2008 so it would be interesting to re-visit him after a lost 2009. The latest I heard from the KC Star beat writer was that Aviles was expected to start the season n the DL or in AAA, but there’s a good chance he playes later this season.
Barton – From top prospect to bust to possible second chance. Barton is expected by some to win the first base job to start the season but he will do so with a powerful prospect brething down his neck. How likely or not is that he can hold the job, at least for this season?
Duensing was a surprise in the Twins rotation, seemingly pitching better than his minor league numbers would project and he heads into Spring battling for the fifth spot in that rotation.
Jeez...
Aviles is pretty much D.O.A.. I dont know why you’re persisting with this.
You’re the only one left. Even Dayton Moore jumped off back in July (fell off, maybe?).
Nice picture!
It’s funny how Aviles has become the forgotten man with the Royals. He was that way in the minors, hardly got a shot, Trey sat him on the bench, then he becomes a stud overnight. Now he’s in the shadow of Yuniesky Batencourt. Life goes full circle, doesn’t it?
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
Really?
I see a guy who wasn’t much of a prospect. A guy who got thrown into MLB action as a 27 year old rookie due to injuries to others. This guy got super lucky with his batting AVG that one year even though he isn’t a good player. Its now eminently clear he’s not a very good player AND he’s injured all the time.
He deserves to be forgotten. He does nothing well and isn’t much of a player. JAG all the way, and I like him less than most JAGs. He was never a stud, he got lucky over the course of 419 ABs and people mistook that for skill.
Prospect Retro-Jaime Moyer and Nelson Cruz
I kind of have a soft spot for longevity pitchers.
Not a Rookie-Chase Heedlay, Jason Motte, Everth Cabrera.
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
+1 on Cruz
Would also love to hear folks’ thoughts on who the next Nelson Cruz/Carlos Pena/Jack Cust may be, a former heralded prospect who slips off the radar a bit only to become a middle of the order bat in his late 20s . . .
oops Chase Heedley
pardon my spelling.
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
oops again, It's Chase Headley
But it’s supposed to pronounced Heedly, so i’ll give ya that. Secondary pronunciation is Headley Lamaar.
"Never have a motto, that's what I always say" - Me
hehee
great reference, I was going to make the Blazing Saddle post myself after I rechecked my spelling twice….you beat me to the punch though
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
by feslenraster on Feb 17, 2010 1:19 PM EST up reply actions
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