Jarrod Saltalamacchia Update
by John Sickels on Feb 15, 2010 6:09 PM EST
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PrintJarrod Saltalamacchia was supposed to be a star by now, but he's not. What's going on?
I did a "Not a Rookie" covering his minor league track record back in 2008, which you can read here. My conclusion was that, given proper adjustment time, Saltalamacchia would end up moving off the catching position and over to first base, He would be "a very good slugging first baseman, not developing into a big batting average guy (hitting .275 or so most seasons ) but producing plenty of power and a reasonable on-base percentage."
It hasn't turned out that way. Salty hit .253/.352/.364 in 61 games in 2008, then .233/.290/.371 in 84 games in 2009. HIs career mark now stands at .251/.314/.389 in 789 at-bats, certainly far less than the Rangers anticipated when they acquired him. Even the positional prediction hasn't turned out, as he caught 83 of 84 games last year.
Defensively, he's an okay but not outstanding defender on paper, throwing out 24% of runners last year. He doesn't give up a ton of passed balls (just two last year), but makes more errors than the average defender. Watching him on TV anyway, he looks like an okay gloveman. I would be interested in the impressions of Rangers fans who get to see him catch daily. From the look of the numbers there is no immediate reason to move him to first base, but he won't win any gold gloves either.
The bat is the question for me. People are disappointed in it, but maybe we should have expected this. His minor league track record showed mediocre hitting in rookie ball, decent-but-not-outstanding hitting in Low-A in '04, an excellent season in High-A in '05, then a terrible season in Double-A in '06. He hit well in 22 games back in Double-A in '07 and in 15 more Triple-A games in '08, but the sample sizes in both cases are small.
He's had significant issues with plate discipline in the majors. He essentially skipped Triple-A, and hasn't dominated any level besides the Carolina League in a full campaign. His career minor league slash line is .273/.370/.453, which is good but hardly spetacular for an elite prospect. In fact, aside from a terriffic season in '05, he never put up future-superstar type numbers in a full season of play. HIs career major league .251/.314/.389 isn't that far off what his MLEs indicate. It is possible that this is just the player he is, and that the Myrtle Beach numbers back in '05 were a fluke.
On the other hand, Salty turns 25 in May and is still young enough to develop. He has been hampered by injuries. That factor, combined with the fact that he skipped Triple-A, likely inhibited both his offensive and defensive development. But injuries are a common malady for catchers, and one that often stunts skill growth. I mentioned in my 2007 book that Saltalamacchia's shaky '06 season could be a sign of Young Catcher Stagnation Syndrome. If I had to bet money on it, my guess is that he'll have a couple of good seasons eventually, but that he'll never live up to the original hype, dragged down by the rigors of the position.
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you know what makes this easier to swallow for Texas?
Elvis Andrus and Neftali Feliz
Good example of the value of hedging your bets
this
is why braves fans and royals fans now both curse the name of john schuerholz
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Feb 15, 2010 6:34 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, damn him and his 14 straight division titles and the last two World Series championships for each team!
by Daniel Berlyn on Feb 15, 2010 7:04 PM EST up reply actions
and he ruined both franchises on his way out...
schuerholz would work great with the yankees…he’s great when he’s got one of the top 5 budgets in baseball because he makes a number of terrible contracts…but when he’s tighter in budget, those bad contracts keep going out, and it kills the franchise long-term…in the end at atlanta, he was trying so hard to extend the streak that he mortgaged the minor league system…
imagine right now a rotation with adam wainwright and tommy hanson at the top with feliz on the way…a lineup that had mccann, escobar, andrus, and heyward on the way….that’s one of the best young, inexpensive teams in all of baseball…
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Feb 16, 2010 10:13 AM EST up reply actions
You're kidding, right?
The man made, what, three bad trades in his Braves career of note? And at least he actually traded Andrus and Feliz for an elite player, not like a Bedard situation. He left the team with Hanson, Heyward, McCann, Schafer, Escobar, etc. Hardly a weak core of young homegrown talent.
And what are all these terrible contracts you’re talking about? Still upset about Brian Jordan?
The Braves came to the end of a cycle as their hall of fame pitchers got old and left. They never got rock bottom bad and they’re poised to jump back up again. You’re needlessly bitter.
Curious on your take John
Given the strong depth in the Texas system at Catcher, I’m always curious about the effect of a player that the organization commits to (because of a trade or high draft pick) like Saltalamacchia and how his presence affects other prospects behind him.
I know Teagarden was a favorite of yours at one point, John. From my perspective, he’s gotten kind of a raw deal since he’s older than Saltalamacchia and has to wait for the org to give up on Salty before getting the playing time needed to develop in the majors. Same thing with Max Ramirez, even if he wasn’t going to stay at catcher he surely would have gotten a chance if a lot of other organizations if he wasn’t so blocked.
But Teagarden
has pretty similar issues with hitting, a very inconsistent track record and very uninspiring performance thus far in the AL. He’s the better defender, but I doubt his bat is ever good enough to be more than a good backup catcher.
Freude, schoener Goetterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.
That's the thing
Neither of them hit particularly well, but Saltalamacchia has had a significantly greater opportunity (not only in number of PA’s but also a consistent bunch of PA’s). At the same time, Teagarden is considered a much better defender and has had better MLB performance than Salty (massive fluky small sample size caveats of course). If you’re getting crummy offense from the position anyways, you might as well get good defense out of it.
From my perspective, Saltalamacchia has totally stagnated whereas Teagarden hasn’t really had a chance to even make adjustments at the major league level… .250/.320/.450 out of your catcher isn’t anything to sneeze at and that’s around what the projections see for Teagarden.
Teagarden has had opportunities too
Salty got the first one because he was in the Majors in 07 when Teagarden was still in Bakersfield. In 08, Teagarden was still going through the minors when Salty was getting a chance to catch full time in the Majors. The only time you could say Salty got the edge over Teagarden was last season, but its not like he didn’t have an opportunity to show something later in the year.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Wait
We’re equating “opportunity to show something later in the year” with 3 weeks of regular playing time in August? Because other than that I see a whole lot of playing a game and then sitting for 3-6 days for pretty much the entire season. I might be crazy but I don’t consider that enough time for a player to make adjustments to pitchers. It’s not like Teagarden completely embarrassed himself in that August stint.
My whole point is that Salty has had a lot more opportunity (a lot more data) to figure it out in the majors and hasn’t. Teagarden hasn’t had anywhere near that same opportunity and I suspect it drastically stunts his development that he has to sit while Saltalamacchia fails to perform any better than Teagarden has. I don’t contend that Saltalamacchia is a lost cause, but IMO it would be a great disservice to Teagarden if the playing time is split in a similar manner again this year.
TX
No longer lists C as an organizational strength. They have all flopped.
The upper levels one have
but the Rangers still have catching depth in the lower levels.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
pretty unfair
to call an injured 24 year old a flop. I hope my success in life isnt decided as failure or success at age 24
He didn't say they'd flopped as people
They still have decades to make a difference in that respect, as you did when you were just 24. As baseball players though, they’re certainly getting to that point. They’ve all likely played in the neighborhood of 1/2 of their professional baseball careers, they’re getting closer and closer to their peak years, and they still haven’t shown that they deserve consistent PT.
Teagarden
I think the jury is still out on Teagarden. It was never expected that he would hit much, which is why Salty seems to get the nod more often, as there’s some hope he will actually hit. Eventually the team (probably early this season) will simply give up, let Tea catch the rest of the season, with Salty as a backup (or trade Salty to someone else who thinks he can hit) and live with Teagarden’s Brad Ausmus like numbers (with a hair more power). .235/.300/.400 isn’t that bad for a number 8 hitter and a catcher. Its not like he’s the best hitter on the team. or the 8th best.
Oh my god! What can it be? We're all doomed! Who's flying this thing?
-Wash
I agree with the sentiment
that their catching depth is and was overstated. You can never have enough depth at pitcher, catcher, or shortstop to be satisfied.
by Daniel Berlyn on Feb 16, 2010 7:48 PM EST up reply actions
Agree on what you said about his defense.
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
I'll second that
he made improvements, but he was starting from a pretty low baseline.
Freude, schoener Goetterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.
Salty
He made pretty good strides last year defensively. I believe his CS numbers would have been better if not for the TOS injury he had late in the season. If I remember correctly he started out last season throwing out something like 12 of the first 15 or 15 of the first 20 or something ridiculous like that. Once the injury which really affected his throwing, so much so that he had trouble just throwing it back to the pitcher, occured his numbers dropped and teams started running on him alot more.
As for his offense I remain bullish that he will be a nice offensive catcher. In 2008 I felt he was too patient which resulted in alot of walks but I also think he missed out on opportunities to drive the ball and produce more. Last year he seemed to overcorrect that and was too aggressive. Thus his OBP dropped and his Ks rose but his power also came back which to me shows he has the tools.
Hopefully this year he finds a happy ground between 2008 and 2009 offensively while maintaining the improvements defensively. I think Salty can still be a 260/ 350/ 450 type hitter with average to above average defense.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
two years from now
John, who will be catching the bulk of the games for Texas in two years?
Neftali Feliz
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Feb 15, 2010 11:06 PM EST up reply actions
small frame, blah blah blah
he’ll just be a backup catcher.
Freude, schoener Goetterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.
reminds me of when Brandon Phillips failed with the Indians
Salty needs to be traded to another team.
Keep in mind
Salty is still a few years away from his prime, drafted out of high school, rushed, unrealistic expectations set on him, extreme pressure on him when he was named the key piece in the Teixeira, new hitting coach, injury problems. It is way too early to give up on this guy, let him turn 25 before we give up on him? maybe? Anyone who watched this year could see he was at least an average defender.
true he's only 25
but I didn’t buy into his elite stature to begin with, always felt he was an overrated prospect.
That said, if he could fight through his injuries and have a full season and if they just left him at catching he still may turn into a useful major league catcher.
The Rangers already have a very good hitting team, they should just leave either Salty, Teagarden or whomever (and don’t sign a “reliable veteran”) behind the plate a full season and see what happens.
There’s been worse major league catchers!
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
The Rangers have a very good hitting team?
really?
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on Feb 16, 2010 9:13 AM EST up reply actions
+1
I can’t stand when people say that. Sounds like a beat reporter from KC, that has no idea how the Rangers won ballgames last year.
-1
Actually, the Rangers really do have a very good hitting team. BP’s Pecota predicts them to score 820 runs, second to only the Yankees in baseball. last year they scored 784 runs, despite huge struggles at catcher, DH, first base, second base, and from Hamilton in the outfield. They’ve inproved their DH, and are expecting some major bounceback from three of the other 4 slots. That while carrying Elvis’ “solid” but unspectacular bat.
The Rangers big struggle last year was with command of the strike zone. too many strikeouts, and too few walks. Vlad was added, a guy who, while he doesn’t walk much, strikes out very little. Borbon should get more playing time, and he can walk. Plus we (Rangers fans) hope that Clint Hurdle will help the rest of the team understand that while “walk” is a 4 letter word, its not anything to be ashamed of.
I think this could be a 900 run team with a resurgence from Hamilton and Davis. with Kinsler combining the power of 2009 with the overall offensive quality of 2008, more of the same from Young and Cruz, and half-way decent seasons from Vlad and David Murphy. With that, and the speed of Elvis at the 9 hole and Borbon at the leadoff spot should be very interesting, even if the Rangers catchers don’t produce.
The same can not be said for the mariners, who are going to see a lot of Chone Figgins and Ichiro Suzuki stranded at first and third as their middle of the order does absolutely nothing. (Griffey as a cleanup hitter? wrong century)
Oh my god! What can it be? We're all doomed! Who's flying this thing?
-Wash
Agree with the overrated
but it still puts a smile on my face that the weakest part of the teixeira trade so far is still a few years from his prime, but wont be missed if he never meets expectations. I do not want a Rod Barahas type taking at bats away from Salty or Teagarden this season. This is the year for one of them to prove he wants to start here
Beau Jones says hi.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Feb 16, 2010 11:58 PM EST up reply actions
Hey... he's only 22 and he struck out 83 batters in 70.2 IP this year.
I actually like Beau Jones. I think he could have a nice career. He just gets bured in that crazy deep system.
That's a bit misleading
Yeah he dominated the CAL, but he didn’t look nearly as good in the TEX where he pitched 54.1 with a 57/31 K/BB. Oh, and while he played most of last year as a 22 year old, he’s 23 now and will turn 24 before the end of the 2010 season. He could certainly develop into a serviceable MR, but I doubt anything more. I think its clearly down to him and Harrison at this point as to who from that trade will have the least impact.
All I was saying is he could end up a decent middle reliever
Pretty good stuff and velocity from a lefty, and even in the Texas league he had more K’s than IP.
He was also a lot better in Frisco after he came back from the CAL league too.
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Feb 17, 2010 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
Harrison?
Whats wrong with him? There’s a lot of teams out there who would love to have a 24 year old lefty with 2 years of major league experience even if he didn’t exactly light the world on fire. Again, being the 8th man in this years rotation is not the same as it has been in years past.
Oh my god! What can it be? We're all doomed! Who's flying this thing?
-Wash
I think the Rangers could go about a decade
without every signing a free agent reliever they have so many arms like that.
Freude, schoener Goetterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.
Salty
My take is that he’s been a mildly pleasant surprise defensively and a big disappointment offensively. I still hold out some hope for his bat, but not much.
Not mediocre. Right about average
I got really excited
when Salty was beating up Latin American pitchers last winter, but my faith in him is falling. He’s not a defensive liability, and he’s still got mutant power, but mediocre power numbers. He’s John Buck.
That's why they call them business sox
I've been saying this since before the trade
Salty has only had success in extended exposure to a league once in his entire career, and it came in A ball all the way back in 2005. Other than that, he’s never really shown anything that should lead people to believe he’ll be a good offensive player. With the defensive improvements he made last year he could certainly be a starter even with the less than stellar bat, but I think the hope of him being anything more than am average catcher is just wishful thinking at this point.
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