Not a Rookie: Luis Valbuena
by John Sickels on Feb 11, 2010 2:21 PM EST
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PrintHere is a look at Luis Valbuena, Cleveland Indians infielder.
Not a Rookie: Luis Valbuena
Luis Valbuena was signed by the Mariners out of Venezuela in 2002. He made his North American debut with Everett in the Northwest League in '05, hitting .261/.333/.443 with 14 steals, and even got into three Triple-A games when Tacoma needed an emergency infielder. He showed good strike zone judgment and his 12 homers for Everett, and drew decent reviews for his glovework. I gave him a Grade C+ in the 2006 book, noting him as a sleeper to watch closely.
Valbuena moved up to Wisconsin in the Midwest League for 2006, hitting .286/.371/.400 in 89 games, then .252/.315/.362 in 43 games after being promoted to Inland Empire in the California League. His power dropped off, but he retained decent plate discipline. His defense was rated as average due to so-so range by most sources. I gave him a Grade C in my ratings but didn't include him in the '07 book due to space limits, which was probably a mistake given his youth and decent hitting performance. Baseball America ranked him 20th on their Mariners prospect list.
Seattle moved Valbuena up to Double-A West Tennesse for 2007. He hit .239/.311/.378, knocking 11 homers, drawing 48 walks with a 83 strikeouts in 444 at-bats. His numbers didn't really stand out, but he was young for the level. I still had him rated as a Grade C guy and once again cut him for space reasons. BA didn't have him on their Mariners prospect list, so I wasn't alone in downplaying him.
Valbuena returned to West Tennessee for 2008, hitting .304/.381/.483 in 70 games. Promoted to Triple-A Tacoma, he hit .302/.383/.373 in 58 games, then hit .245/.315/.347 in an 18-game trial with the Mariners. He hit 11 homers again, stole 18 bases, and drew 59 walks against 59 strikeouts on the season. Defensive reviews still pointed to an average glove due to range limits, but he was considered steady and reliable. I gave him a Grade C+ in the 2009 book, writing "I don't think Valbuena will be a star, but I can see him as a solid contributor, hitting .260-.275 with some secondary skills." He was traded to the Indians in the December '08 three-way between the Tribe, the Mariners, and the Mets.
Valbuena spent most of 2009 with the Indians, hitting .250/.298/.416 in 103 games, with 10 homers, 26 walks, and 83 strikeouts in 368 at-bats. His plate discipline was usually good in the minors: witness a 213/274 BB/K ratio in 1753 minor league at-bats. That didn't hold up in the majors, but I suspect he can get it back closer to previous levels if given more exposure. He has more power than most 5-10, 195 pound second basemen, and I think we could see that increase a bit more. He was platooned for the most part, getting just 40 plate appearances against lefties (resulting in a .205/.225/.436 mark) but 358 against right-handers (.255/.306/.413). His defense was exactly as expected: steady but not superb. He made just six errors in 75 games at second base, leading to a .985 fielding percentage, but his UZR ratings were below average, denoting limited range.
My expectations for Valbuena remain the same: I think he'll be a .260-.275 hitter going forward, with sparks of power and a gradually improving on-base percentage. His defense will be reliable in terms of avoiding errors and mistakes, but he won't show great range. If the hitting develops to the maximum possible extent, he could have an All-Star caliber offensive season around 2013 or so.
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Definitely Asdrubal
A player I love (and I feel his defense will start showing up plus again now that they’ve stopped moving him around).
As for 2B… the Tribe has a lot of good candidates for the future. I do like Valbuena, though.
Kipnis
If Kipnis can stick at 2B long-term I like him over Valbuena. However, I think Valbuena can be a solid league average 2B nonetheless.
Yup
League average is what I see. Not sure there is more than that there – but he does reach it in ways I like in my players.
2B has been a merry go round in Cleveland for a while now… if Valbuena stuggles out of the shoot the next couple years and doesnt establish himself there will be plenty of guys breathing down his neck. Kipnis is one. Bixler. Jason Donald is someone Ive always liked. They also invited Grudzialanek to camp. Always the possibility they shift Asdrubal back to 2B. They were the runner up for Orlando Hudson, too… so not sure they really value Valbuena that much or see him in their long term plans.
Valbuena
I really like his bat. Projection systems have him walking more in 2010, but he was a pretty good contact hitter at AA and AAA—something the projections don’t see him repeating. If he can get back to an 8% walk rate this year with a 15%-18% K rate and a .150 ISO, we’re looking at a good hitter.
Well, Valbuena was traded by Zduriencik in the Putz/Gutierrez deal...
but Bavasi traded Asdrubal and Choo for both halves of the Indians’ mediocre DH platoon team.
I don’t have enough bad things to say about Bill Bavasi.
I really like Valbuena
and think he’s a really good offensive breakout candidate for this year. Look at the way he’s adjusted to the last 2 levels he played at after repeated aggressive assignments.
Double-A:
2007 (age 21, started the season there after never really mastering A+) : .239/.311/.378, 9.5 BB%, 18.7K%
2008, .304/.381/.483, 11.2 BB%, 15.4 K%
Triple-A
2008 (was called up mid-season as a 22 y/o) .302/.383/.373, 11.4 BB%, 15.1 K%
2009 (pre call-up): .321/.436/.538, 16.8 BB%, 16.7K% (in only 95 plate appearances, but BB and K-rate tend to normalize quickly).
His first go-round in the majors wasn’t all that impressive, and in particular, his BB-rate plummeted. I have a hunch you’ll see a huge spike in his BB-rate as he corrects the over-aggressive approach he took in the majors last season. His HR power will probably decline a bit (he hit at about an 18hr/full season pace last year, I see him as a 12-14 hr guy), but the rest of his game should improve a great deal. I don’t think .280/.360/.440 is out of the question out of this kid.
I agree
I think Valbuena has the chance to become a star reasonably quickly, though John is right that it will probably take a few years for everything to work out. The basic picture, though, of a 2B with excellent plate control (his regression in his first major league stints aside) and with borderline outstanding power for a middle infielder is quite impressive. (Whether he ever hits more than 15 home runs, there are simply not too many middle infielders who have ISOPs in the .150-.180 range, especially as 23 year olds.) I think his best seasons will probably look like his AA performance in 2008 (.300/.380/.480), though in the short term, it’s hard for even an optimist to expect more than .280/.360/.440
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by OldProspects on Feb 11, 2010 6:14 PM EST up reply actions
Jose Vidro
Would a comp be Jose Vidro (perhaps withouot the hit tool, and with better ability too take a walk?)
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