Draft Preview - Houston Astros
The sixth team draft preview on my blog focuses on the Houston Astros and their scouting director Bobby Heck.
Here's an excerpt from the writeup, which features small writeups on 10 players involved with Heck's work:
In terms of draft budgeting, the Astros are in the bottom third of draft spending when looking at combined spending amounts over the past two years. The $10.7 million they’ve spent on draft bonuses is less than either Seattle or Washington spent on their 2009 drafts alone. This isn’t to say that I think the Astros are cheap. Their 2008 draft showed that they’re capable of spending a healthy amount on draft budgeting, and that was even without third-rounder Chase Davidson signing. However, 2009 was a big dip, and they ended up spending less than 23 other teams. Since they’re back in the top ten this year, I expect a budget that outspends 2008’s total, perhaps as high as an even $8 million. They own picks 8, 19, 33, 58, 90, 123, and every 30 picks after that, granted that Rod Barajas signs a Major League contract with another team before the draft. The two extra early picks they’ll carry will undoubtedly mean more money spent. The first pick should carry a tag of somewhere near $2.3 million, the second $1.5 million, the third $950,000, and the fourth $650,000. That’s already $5.4 million before we’ve even gotten to the third round. In other words, don’t expect overslot signings in the late rounds this year, as the budget won’t be stretched enough to accommodate such spending, unless one of the early picks doesn’t sign, and they sign later picks as protection. This will definitely be an up year in spending for the Astros, but I don’t expect a huge explosion into eight figures for a team that’s generally middle of the pack and below when it comes to draft spending under Ed Wade’s tenure.
As always, read about the 2010 MLB Draft Notebook and pre-order it here.
What do you think? What will the Astros do?
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I see them taking...
LeVon Washington. They seem to be taking players that fill premium positions like catcher and SS. LeVon Washington should be able to fill either CF or 2B easily and is the only position player on the board that fits in this range. I wouldn’t rule out a player who has a breakout year or Bryce Brentz either, but LeVon Washington makes the most sense for this spot.
Could be anyone
I wouldn’t rule any position out. They do have a preference for up-the-middle players, but they won’t limit themselves, either. Though he wasn’t the S.D., Heck was over the East Coast when the Brewers drafted Braun and Fielder. If there’s a guy they like at #8 (or any spot) that they project at a corner spot, whether Cox or Brentz, or whoever, they won’t shy away over position. But, they do prefer size and athleticism, especially on the mound, so I would expect that to be a continuing trend overall.
There are no bats...
like Braun or Fielder in this draft. Some could say Brentz is, but I don’t think his bat holds up against better pitching. He reminds me of Dennis Raben from Miami a couple of years ago. Cox is a good bat, but is still not on the level of Braun and Fielder. Cox is only projected to go as high as he is because of the lack of college bats in this draft. Also, pitching in the first round seems highly unlikely to me. All of the true top arms like Cole, Taillon, Ranaudo, and McGuire will be gone by now, and the others are good, but will probably not rank as high on Houston’s board as a LeVon Washington would.
Raben?
How so? In 3 full seasons, Raben only hit 2 more HR than Brentz did just last year. Brentz also runs better, hits for higher average, and isn’t definitely limited to RF. Add to his resume that he’s done well with wooden bats against good competition (Team USA).
The point isn’t that they are going to take Player X, but that they aren’t going to limit themselves to a type of player. It’s way too early, also, to say who will and won’t be gone. Players get helium, certain clubs like certain players more than others, guys get hurt, etc.
Brentz is actually pretty much limited to RF.
He’s going to play in center this year, but I haven’t talked to a single club that sees him sticking there as a pro.
Still
He’s a much better fielder, is a better runner, hits for more power, has a better arm, and hits for a higher average. He’s not overly patient, meaning he doesn’t sit on too many pitches, putting him behind in the count, though he does have a good eye. He bats from the opposite side and doesn’t even have a similar body type to Raben. I don’t see the connection.
Raben could still be a good hitting prospect
he just needs to get his knee back in playing shape.
by Daniel Berlyn on Feb 11, 2010 8:58 PM EST up reply actions
couldn't see Cox
Houston seems to be spending their high draft choices on guys with a good combination of known value and projection value. It’s not a coincidence that the team’s top 3 prospects all fit the mold of guys who should definitely provide substantial major league value, the only question being how much.
Cox is just super-risky to me, a bat-first guy with serious problems making contact and no guarantee of sticking at 3B.
We'll see
Cox was hurt much of last season and still put up okay numbers. He should be able to stay at 3B (average arm/range/fielding out of HS), though his stock does take a dip if a team isn’t sure. His draft report (milb.com) out of HS had his hitting approach as his best asset, so a healthy season could make a difference on his stat line. FWIW, Mayo had Cox as #8 on his draft list this month. It wasn’t a projection of who a team could pick, but he did have him that high.
I’m not sold on the guy, I’m just throwing out names and trying not to pigeonhole the club in February. There’s nothing wrong with mocks, as long as people don’t become dogmatic about their pick 4 months out. That’s not on you or Andy, just getting that off my chest.
Personally, I could see them going several different ways, it just depends on who they feel is the best guy available. Cowart could be a possibility, One of the HS arms could fall to them. They could go the college route, also. I’m looking forward to seeing how the high/extra picks work out for the club.
Yeah, I'm not stuck on any one name.
I’m just trying to give a picture of where they might be headed.

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