Simon Castro
I have had enough of the madness. Enough of this grand injustice that continues to perpetuate itself. I am, of course, discussing the underrating of Simon Castro. For those of you who don't know who he is, please exit this thread (I kid, he is the top pitching prospect in the Padres' system). Since I have a slow day today due to this bitch of a virus that has made it difficult to leave the bed as of late, I will attempt to explain to you why, my sweet community, that Simon Castro is a top 30 prospect.
First, let's look at the stats:
This was Castro's first full year of baseball. He finished the year with the following line:
| W | L | ERA | G | GS | CG | SV | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | BB/9 | SO/9 | WHIP | STK% | G/F | ||
| 10 |
6 | 3.33 | 28 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 140.1 | 118 | 61 | 52 | 9 | 37 | 157 | 2.37 | 10.07 | 1.10 | -- | 0.81 |
|
BA against: .230
HR/9: .58
BABIP: .313
LOB: 68.2%
FIP: 2.80
After some analysis, we can conclude that these stats are downright dominant. What stands out to me are a few things:
1. A bb/9 of 2.37 is simply an outstanding rate. Castro, in the past, has struggled with command to an extent, however, he really seems to have minimized walks, while bringing up his k rate.
2. The G/F rate isn't perhaps completely ideal, but that's by no means a poor rate, especially considering that he allowed 9 homers throughout the season.
3. His BABIP is right in line, if not somewhat high. I know that BABIP for minor leaguers is understood differently from major league BABIP, for what it's worth.
4. A FIP of 2.80 is dominant. How dominant? This past season in the MLB, a FIP of 2.80 was had by one Justin Verlander. The only pitchers to post a better FIP? Chris Carpenter, Javy Vasquez, Tim Lincecum, and Zack Greinke. I know that Castro is not a major leaguer, but that's a pretty successful stat, in my opinion.
Scouting Report:
This is actually an area that I've had some trouble trying to find info on. Apparently, no one on the interweb has posted Simon Castro video. But here is what I have heard about his pitches:
Fastball: Sits from 92-94, comfortably in the mid 90s as a starter. One report had him touching 98, which I highly doubt, but I could easily see the kid hit 95 consistently. Good movement, plus pitch.
Slider: This is a pitch that has made tremendous strides this season. It's a power slider that flashes plus (when Castro locates it) with hard and late break. Some call it plus right now.
Changeup: Not a great pitch, admittedly, but reports throughout the season seem to indicate it's coming around. This is probably the pitch Castro needs to work on the most in his arsenal. But remember, last season was his first full season, and I feel optimistic that Castro is a pitcher who works to improve his pitches (see his slider above). As well, people said that while his change up is now not quite average, when he began implementing it as the season went on, his results improved.
Body:
Despite my hesitance to subscribe to the notion that a taller pitcher is a better pitcher, Castro's 6'5'' frame indicates that he has a lot of room to put on weight, which I feel is a better indication of a pitcher's power. At only 203 pounds, his body looks like it has room to grow and add on another 20 pounds or so.
So, I suppose my question is, what is it about this guy that stops him from making the top 30? Has two plus pitches with an average pitch that seems to be on its way. Great size. And put up some amazing numbers this past season. Still has loads of room to improve, but seems to be well on his way. Is it because he is a Padre prospect that he falls under the radar? Wish I knew. But hopefully, this will, at the very least, stimulate some productive discussion about Mr. Castro.
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He is very good but
I actually am a little nervous about the fly ball tendencies. He is going to be a very good pitcher and there are plenty of examples of pitchers that do extremely well with with a .8 G/F, but the dominant pitchers tend to be strikeout/groundout pitchers. Once in the majors, HR/FB becomes more of a constant (~11%), a number that pitchers have little control over. But the one thing they can control is how many fly balls they give up. This point is somewhat moot if he stays with the padres because their spacious outfield suppresses homerun/flyball rates.
PetCo
Reading your post I was going to mention that PetCo may hide his flyball tendencies to an extent.
In response to the original post – I think he’s very good and if you are an optimist, there is a lot to dream on. He has a big arm and a good body. In one game that I listened to on Mi LB radio, he hit 95 several times so the velocity is definitely there. However, I’m more encouraged by the fact that his control was seen as weakness coming into the year but he made adjustments and turned it into a strength. The ability/desire to succeed is often what separates the booms from the busts.
Of course, the flip side is he’s a hard throwing A-Baller with no consistent secondary pitch. Those guys are really not that rare. If the secondary stuff doesn’t get better and/or more consistent, he may struggle at higher levels.
I’m pretty much in the middle on him. I like him but I’m not ready to put him up there with the Martin Perez and Kyle Drabek group. At this point those guys have better scouting reports and/or success at a higher level. If Castro repeats his performance this year, he’ll easily be top 25 for me next year.
Re:
I meant to say that I was going to mention PetCo – but you already did. I do think that makes a difference in Castro’s MLB projections but not his prospect status.
I was going to add that, but I wanted to look more so at his projection as a pitcher in general, not just organization wise
Although, if we look at it in terms of PETCO, it does bode well that his true “weakness” will play well at the park
You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220
I've been a big fan of Castro's since i read
those midseason comments from uh … crap, i want to say grady fuson but it might’ve been someone else.
In regards to rankings, though, I think this year, there are so many arms clustered together that I can see a wide range of opinions on where Simon Castro should land in a prospect list. For example, in the CPL a few rounds back, I was thinking of voting for him but felt that Mike Montgomery was more advanced with a similar enough ceiling.
Opinion
Casey Crosby, Matt Moore, Lyles, and Castro are all together in style of performance.
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Withrow Too.
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Castro and Withrow profile the most similarly
Three pitches. Above Average but not plus fastballs, an above average breaking pitch, and a useable change-up. Both pitchers seemingly have some durability, have good home run tendencies (although I trust Withrow to keep it low more than Castro), etc.
they dont have plus fastballs?
then what is your definition of a plus fastball?
He was a 21 year old pitching well in low-A ball
He’s certainly a good prospect and everything, but given his ARL and performance this year there’s a very strong case against him being top 50, let alone top 30.
As for why he’s not top 30, there are plenty of reasons. He hasn’t done a thing above low-A ball. The secondary pitches aren’t very developed. Considering his age, his numbers aren’t that great. There are plenty of younger guys with similar stuff, more projection, and similar, if not better, track records.
This
Juilo Teheran has better stuff, and was three years younger at the same level. And he’s not top-30 either. Casto had a solid year, but he started in 2006 in the DSL, spent the next year in rookie ball, spent the next year in the Nortwest League, and then last year in low-A. He’s had a lot of time to prepare for this level.
Don’t want to knock him too much, he is a top 100 guy. Just doesn’t stand out from Teheran, Rondon, Vizcaino, Withrow, Sheppers, Martin, Shelby Miller, Jarrod Parker….

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